Why a QB this year isn't the move

[Au165]

I get it, QB is the most important position in football. There is an association with assigning wins to QB's (which is dumb) and so people assume the potentially 0-16 team has to go QB. The fact of the matter though is simple, this team is bad all over the field. The easy answer is to go QB the smart answer is to go everywhere else.

The first thing to realize is this is the new age NFL. Guys like Russell Wilsons, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Kylar Murray are the future. The big plodding immobile QB is a dinosaur because the O lines are just getting worse for whatever reason (I have my theories). Coming out I was much higher on Lamar Jackson and Kylar Murray than most here and that was because of what they give you in terms of masking your O line inefficiencies. These guys give defensive coordinators nightmares because they limit the ability to play man coverage, which gives the QB's more defined throws.

With that said, this is not the class of the new age QB, this is the class of guys who can move better than Tom Brady and Phillip Rivers but they aren't supreme athletes. Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa are really good QB prospects. They have their strengths and they are differences between them but both would be solid options to draft this year if a QB was the finishing piece to an otherwise up and coming team. My issue is neither of these guys are going to come in and win in the near future because the team around them is not good enough offensively or defensively right now. I think both guys could get the team into the 4 or 5 win range, but all that will do is make finishing off the roster tougher with worse draft position. We will end up in a kind of purgatory we are somewhat familiar with from the 90's.

Now what this class does offer is a TON of other solid options to help build this team. Chase Young will be graded has the highest graded pass rusher coming out in the last decade when it's all said and done. He will be graded higher than Myles Garrett, Khalil Mack, Nick Bosa...all of them. As we have seen this year, while we love the guys on the D line they aren't as good as we want to act like they are. It's easy to blame the LB's for everything, but if you watch the tape with emotions aside the D line as a whole has not played well this year. If we are going into an era of the new age QB we need an elite end who can chase these guys around and bring them down, Chase Young is that guy and it shouldn't even be a debate.

Then what? Chase Young can't fix this team on his own right? No, he can't but he's a good building block. The next piece is that 2nd round pick. If you go back the last couple years and look at 2nd round picks in the top 5 and you will see some really good players who fell out of the 1st round still on the board. There were a bunch of board favorite O linemen available last year and I'd expect this year to be similar. Maybe you go O line, or maybe you go LB or even CB to help try and shore up what has again been a league worst unit. After that you got room to play, maybe you package a guy like Carlos Dunlap with your 3rd for another crack in the 2nd to find that O linemen everyone wants, the options are out there especially if you know you are going Chase Young 1 overall.

But what about QB? Well that answer is easy, we are going to suck for a couple years it's time to accept it. In terms of the new age QB we are a year away from a class that is flush with "that guy" QB's. Trevor Lawrence get's the press as the pocket passing prototypical QB because he is white, but the reality is the kid can run and is sneaky fast. I'd comp him as Andrew Luck both for his intelligence and throwing ability, but also for his highly underrated running ability. The other big time option is Just Fields out of Ohio State. Fields is a big guys so it's not an easy comp, but to me his ability to escape pressure in the pocket while keeping his eyes down field is Russell Wilson like. His accuracy is deadly, but he isn't going to kill you with speed.

If you are looking at this whole mess big picture, going QB this year is the easy answer not the right answer. I'll go on record saying, I think Joe Burrow will be a really good pro QB (I'll do a break down on him at some point as his recent tape is great). I think Tua will be really good in the right system (a west coast hybrid that has some play makers who can run after the catch). I think neither will find much success here because we aren't equipped, as currently constructed, to help them succeed. If we take a year to build up the team with some elite players before we get QB's who are more suited to handle the pitfalls of this roster (which won't be fixed in a single year) we can be competitive in just two drafts.

[*Synric*]

Honestly I just want them to do their homework throughly. This could be the most important draft the Bengals will have for the next 10 years.

If they scout Burrow and Tua and believe in one of them I'm all for it...if they walk away not impressed then I'm all for Chase Young, Andrew Thomas, Jerry Jeudy, or even a trade back.

Edit: I finally got a chance to go back and watch some Ohio State games I recorded. And I came away very impressed with Baron Browning I wonder if he will declare..

[Au165]

(11-11-2019, 09:48 AM)Synric Wrote: Honestly I just want them to do their homework throughly. This could be the most important draft the Bengals will have for the next 10 years.

If they scout Burrow and Tua and believe in one of them I'm all for it...if they walk away not impressed then I'm all for Chase Young, Andrew Thomas, Jerry Jeudy, or even a trade back.

Edit: I finally got a chance to go back and watch some Ohio State games I recorded. And I came away very impressed with Baron Browning I wonder if he will declare..

A WR would be a complete miss, even if he was the second coming of Jerry Rice. Analytics are pretty clear on this, elite WR's do not win you Super Bowls. They are nice to have but elite defenses and elite QB's win Super Bowls. 


I mean they are going to come away impressed, they are good QB's. Joe Burrow is going to get some Brady comps with his touch and ball placement. There was a wheel route in the first half that Burrow threw that from the back camera shot it looked like Tom Brady with the touch and ball placement, it was perfection. I just don't know that he can do that here, similarly to what we saw with Tua when he was under pressure early in the game. 


I think Browning could declare, but I think it's a mistake. He is a 2nd round pick right now that could climb into the bottom of the 1st with a great combine, but he has top 10 pick potential if he goes back another year. He hasn't played since Wisconsin and he didn't show a ton that game. 

[Hammerstripes]

Taking a QB this year is the right move IF they are franchise type guys. It's the hardest piece to find, so if you get the #1 pick, you better make sure you get your guy. There's too much variability from year to year. Do you really want to hitch your wagon to Finley?

There will be several other generational pass rushers in the next few years. We've seen how many generational guys in the last 5 years?

[*Synric*]

(11-11-2019, 10:00 AM)Au165 Wrote: A WR would be a complete miss, even if he was the second coming of Jerry Rice. Analytics are pretty clear on this, elite WR's do not win you Super Bowls. They are nice to have but elite defenses and elite QB's win Super Bowls. 


I mean they are going to come away impressed, they are good QB's. Joe Burrow is going to get some Brady comps with his touch and ball placement. There was a wheel route in the first half that Burrow threw that from the back camera shot it looked like Tom Brady with the touch and ball placement, it was perfection. I just don't know that he can do that here, similarly to what we saw with Tua when he was under pressure early in the game. 


I think Browning could declare, but I think it's a mistake. He is a 2nd round pick right now that could climb into the bottom of the 1st with a great combine, but he has top 10 pick potential if he goes back another year. He hasn't played since Wisconsin and he didn't show a ton that game. 

Burrow made a throw in the second half it was to the sideline a hitch or an out from the middle of the field it was in a rope. The safety looked like he wanted to jump the route but the ball just got there so fast.

Burrow had a really impressive game in Alabama with all that noise and pressure...He played ice cold like none of it bothered him at all. Loved how he stood strong in the pocket knowing he was about to take a huge hit to get the ball to the second level.

[Fan_in_Kettering]

As horrific as the Bengals defense is, I don’t see how the Front Office and the coaches could ignore Chase Young. I don’t think drafting a quarterback in 2020 is the smartest move either.

[Big Boss]

Quarterback is arguably the most important position. The bridge with Andy Dalton is all but burned, and if yesterday is any indication then Ryan Finley is a career backup. They have to address QB at some point. This organization builds through the draft, and we're looking at a top 3 pick. While the liklihood is high, it's no guarantee that we find ourselves in that position again next year. You certainly can't plan around that.

If there's a QB in this class that you believe is the future of your franchise, you take him. Sit him behind Finley and Dolegala for a season or two if you have to, while you shore up the lines over the next couple of draft classes.

[Au165]

(11-11-2019, 10:28 AM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Taking a QB this year is the right move IF they are franchise type guys.  It's the hardest piece to find, so if you get the #1 pick, you better make sure you get your guy.  There's too much variability from year to year.  Do you really want to hitch your wagon to Finley?

There will be several other generational pass rushers in the next few years.  We've seen how many generational guys in the last 5 years?

There are franchise guys every year, the issue is they end up in bad situations and bust out. Lamar Jackson anywhere besides with Greg Roman isn't the guy we are watching right now. Josh Rosen has gone to two bad situations and his career is now shot. If Josh Allen played for Bruce Arians he'd be having a much better career. It's the Tom Brady argument, would Tom Brady be Tom Brady if he didn't go to NE? It's easy for people to say yes but he was a 6th rounder for a reason and it's not as easy as saying people messed up. In the early years they protected him from himself until he was ready to be the man.Very few guys can thrive in bad situations and as good as one of these guys may be, they will be playing in potentially one of the worst situations in NFL history (Team coming off 0-16). 

Last 5 years? None. Myles Garrett, Jadaveon Clowney and Bradley Chubb had All pro grades coming out. Nick Bosa and Joey Bosa had Potential Pro Bowl grades coming out. None of them had "Generational" grades on them (maybe media hyperbole), what I am hearing from the two guys I talk to in the scouting game is Young will have a generational grade. If people really believe in BPA then Young will be the highest rated player in the draft, people will overvalue QB's based on need like usual which will cause people to simply overlook flaws. 

[Au165]

(11-11-2019, 11:05 AM)Big Boss Wrote: If there's a QB in this class that you believe is the future of your franchise, you take him.  Sit him behind Finley and Dolegala for a season or two if you have to, while you shore up the lines over the next couple of draft classes.

This is a myth. In the last 10 years no QB drafted in the top 10 has sat a full season behind other QB's even when the coaches say they plan to. Reason being is that the rookie QB contract is the most valuable contract in football, you can't waste a year of development on the bench now. If we draft a QB he is playing, especially if he is 1st overall, which means he will be subject to 40+ sacks his rookie year.

[Au165]

For everyone saying go QB, who was the last QB drafted in the top 5 (by a team who didn't trade into the top 5) that succeeded long term? The reason this matters is teams in the top 5 have bad teams around these QB's. Teams have traded up and found success with QB's due to the teams being better than the draft slot they took their guy, but normally that happens in the back half of the top 10 because teams are coming from mid to late teens.

The answer is Luck, who was hit so often because of a bad O line for years his potential hall of fame career was cut short. If you go past Luck the list doesn't look all that great with a guy like Matt Ryan or Cam Newton maybe being your next best examples.

[BenZoo2]

It will be interesting to see what, if any, offers we get for the number 1 pick if we end up getting it.

Ebenezer’s history as shown if there is qb he likes he will take him. Other gm’s probably figure what’s the point in even calling.

The talent level on this team is lacking and needs an infusion of good players through out the roster


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[*Synric*]

(11-11-2019, 11:24 AM)Au165 Wrote: For everyone saying go QB, who was the last QB drafted in the top 5 (by a team who didn't trade into the top 5) that succeeded long term? The reason this matters is teams in the top 5 have bad teams around these QB's. Teams have traded up and found success with QB's due to the teams being better than the draft slot they took their guy, but normally that happens in the back half of the top 10 because teams are coming from mid to late teens.

The answer is Luck, who was hit so often because of a bad O line for years his potential hall of fame career was cut short. If you go past Luck the list doesn't look all that great with a guy like Matt Ryan or Cam Newton maybe being your next best examples.

Quarterback has the highest bust rate in all of football but that isn't a good argument against taking one if you have a chance. As you said in your first post QB is the most important position and if you don't have one and have a chance to get one do the legwork. If there is a guy there that you believe can be a true franchise star QB you take him no matter what...

[Au165]

(11-11-2019, 12:44 PM)Synric Wrote: Quarterback has the highest bust rate in all of football but that isn't a good argument against taking one if you have a chance. As you said in your first post QB is the most important position and if you don't have one and have a chance to get one do the legwork. If there is a guy there that you believe can be a true franchise star QB you take him no matter what...

Why isn't it a good argument against taking one? They have the highest bust rate because they are thrown into bad situations and expected to save franchises. Recent history shows us that teams that come up to take them when their teams are built to compete have more favorable results then teams who find themselves in the top 5 and taking one hoping they will save their franchise. You can't win without good QB play but you also can't win with a horrible team around them. If you take the QB before the team you waste years of their rookie contract which is the real constant we have seen in a lot of the "breakout" teams recently. 

We aren't going to be good for years, if we take  QB this year we are the Browns. Not the "good" Browns like how they constructed their roster recently, no we are the browns for the previous decade who kept running out QB's they thought were stars only to figure out they couldn't carry a horrible roster and bad coaching. 

[*Synric*]

(11-11-2019, 12:52 PM)Au165 Wrote: Why isn't it a good argument against taking one? They have the highest bust rate because they are thrown into bad situations and expected to save franchises. Recent history shows us that teams that come up to take them when their teams are built to compete have more favorable results then teams who find themselves in the top 5 and taking one hoping they will save their franchise. You can't win without good QB play but you also can't win with a horrible team around them. If you take the QB before the team you waste years of their rookie contract which is the real constant we have seen in a lot of the "breakout" teams recently. 

We aren't going to be good for years, if we take  QB this year we are the Browns. Not the "good" Browns like how they constructed their roster recently, no we are the browns for the previous decade who kept running out QB's they thought were stars only to figure out they couldn't carry a horrible roster and bad coaching. 

Top 4 positions QB Edge OT and Corner. Do the work and take the right one dont write any of them off until you are absolutely sure.

I refuse to say dont take a QB just because they have to continue to build the team. If there isn't one worth taking top 3 then look at a different guy or trade out.


Do the Work.

Edit: It also looks like a great year to take a corner at some point.

[Au165]

(11-11-2019, 01:04 PM)Synric Wrote: Top 4 positions QB Edge OT and Corner. Do the work and take the right one dont write any of them off until you are absolutely sure.

I refuse to say dont take a QB just because they have to continue to build the team. If there isn't one worth taking top 3 then look at a different guy or trade out.


Do the Work.

Everyone does their "work", and every team thinks their "work" is good. No one ever drafted a QB high saying "I'm not sure if this guy will be good or not". The best QB's to come out of the draft in the last 5 years Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz, Dak Prescot. All of these QB's went to good teams and I am in the camp it's not a coincidence why they are finding the best results. Heck, Goff wasn't good until a new staff came in and infused the team with a ton of talent but that appears to be a mirage more so than talent. 

I get your belief, it's a long held belief all around the NFL, I am just telling you that isn't how good teams have done it recently. Maybe it's coincidence, but I don't believe that. 

[Fan_in_Kettering]

Don’t do it. You don’t live in Cleveland; you live in Cincinnati.

[*Synric*]

(11-11-2019, 01:12 PM)Au165 Wrote: Everyone does their "work", and every team thinks their "work" is good. No one ever drafted a QB high saying "I'm not sure if this guy will be good or not". The best QB's to come out of the draft in the last 5 years Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz, Dak Prescot. All of these QB's went to good teams and I am in the camp it's not a coincidence why they are finding the best results. Heck, Goff wasn't good until a new staff came in and infused the team with a ton of talent but that appears to be a mirage more so than talent. 

I get your belief, it's a long held belief all around the NFL, I am just telling you that isn't how good teams have done it recently. Maybe it's coincidence, but I don't believe that. 

I understand your point and it has merit. The Bears are a very solid team that should really go after a QB this offseason it could take them to the next level.

Anyway to take a QB or not take a QB is a moot point if they don't add the right peices around them.

[Whatever]

(11-11-2019, 09:29 AM)Au165 Wrote: I get it, QB is the most important position in football. There is an association with assigning wins to QB's (which is dumb) and so people assume the potentially 0-16 team has to go QB. The fact of the matter though is simple, this team is bad all over the field. The easy answer is to go QB the smart answer is to go everywhere else.

The first thing to realize is this is the new age NFL. Guys like Russell Wilsons, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Kylar Murray are the future. The big plodding immobile QB is a dinosaur because the O lines are just getting worse for whatever reason (I have my theories). Coming out I was much higher on Lamar Jackson and Kylar Murray than most here and that was because of what they give you in terms of masking your O line inefficiencies. These guys give defensive coordinators nightmares because they limit the ability to play man coverage, which gives the QB's more defined throws.

With that said, this is not the class of the new age QB, this is the class of guys who can move better than Tom Brady and Phillip Rivers but they aren't supreme athletes. Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa are really good QB prospects. They have their strengths and they are differences between them but both would be solid options to draft this year if a QB was the finishing piece to an otherwise up and coming team. My issue is neither of these guys are going to come in and win in the near future because the team around them is not good enough offensively or defensively right now. I think both guys could get the team into the 4 or 5 win range, but all that will do is make finishing off the roster tougher with worse draft position. We will end up in a kind of purgatory we are somewhat familiar with from the 90's.

Now what this class does offer is a TON of other solid options to help build this team. Chase Young will be graded has the highest graded pass rusher coming out in the last decade when it's all said and done. He will be graded higher than Myles Garrett, Khalil Mack, Nick Bosa...all of them. As we have seen this year, while we love the guys on the D line they aren't as good as we want to act like they are. It's easy to blame the LB's for everything, but if you watch the tape with emotions aside the D line as a whole has not played well this year. If we are going into an era of the new age QB we need an elite end who can chase these guys around and bring them down, Chase Young is that guy and it shouldn't even be a debate.

Then what? Chase Young can't fix this team on his own right? No, he can't but he's a good building block. The next piece is that 2nd round pick. If you go back the last couple years and look at 2nd round picks in the top 5 and you will see some really good players who fell out of the 1st round still on the board. There were a bunch of board favorite O linemen available last year and I'd expect this year to be similar. Maybe you go O line, or maybe you go LB or even CB to help try and shore up what has again been a league worst unit. After that you got room to play, maybe you package a guy like Carlos Dunlap with your 3rd for another crack in the 2nd to find that O linemen everyone wants, the options are out there especially if you know you are going Chase Young 1 overall.

But what about QB? Well that answer is easy, we are going to suck for a couple years it's time to accept it. In terms of the new age QB we are a year away from a class that is flush with "that guy" QB's. Trevor Lawrence get's the press as the pocket passing prototypical QB because he is white, but the reality is the kid can run and is sneaky fast. I'd comp him as Andrew Luck both for his intelligence and throwing ability, but also for his highly underrated running ability. The other big time option is Just Fields out of Ohio State. Fields is a big guys so it's not an easy comp, but to me his ability to escape pressure in the pocket while keeping his eyes down field is Russell Wilson like. His accuracy is deadly, but he isn't going to kill you with speed.

If you are looking at this whole mess big picture, going QB this year is the easy answer not the right answer. I'll go on record saying, I think Joe Burrow will be a really good pro QB (I'll do a break down on him at some point as his recent tape is great). I think Tua will be really good in the right system (a west coast hybrid that has some play makers who can run after the catch). I think neither will find much success here because we aren't equipped, as currently constructed, to help them succeed. If we take a year to build up the team with some elite players before we get QB's who are more suited to handle the pitfalls of this roster (which won't be fixed in a single year) we can be competitive in just two drafts.

The Bengals are not going to be dissuaded by a potentially long turnaround from taking a QB.  Reason being, they have quickly turned the club around with the last 2 high QB selections they have made.  There is no reason for them to anticipate a 3-4 year rebuild.

If you think the QB can't be successful, then you use FA, trades, and the rest of your draft to fix the OL and add some weapons so he can be successful.  You don't just not take a QB.  If you're taking a QB, then you need to focus on the offense around him so he can have success early.

From a business perspective, they can't go into next year without a new QB unless Finley or Dolegala shows franchise QB potential.  You have to sell tickets.  You either have to go QB in the first 2 rounds or sign/trade for a vet.

You have to weigh your options.  A lot of it comes down to how you evaluate the #4-6 QB's that you can potentially get at the top of 2 vs your top 1-2 prospects that you're potentially looking at in 1.  If there's 1-2 guys you like in the 2nd, then maybe you take Young and a QB in 1 and 2, similar to the AJ-Dalton draft.  You can't just punt on a QB this year, though.

[Au165]

(11-11-2019, 03:51 PM)Whatever Wrote: The Bengals are not going to be dissuaded by a potentially long turnaround from taking a QB.  Reason being, they have quickly turned the club around with the last 2 high QB selections they have made.  There is no reason for them to anticipate a 3-4 year rebuild.

If you think the QB can't be successful, then you use FA, trades, and the rest of your draft to fix the OL and add some weapons so he can be successful.  You don't just not take a QB.  If you're taking a QB, then you need to focus on the offense around him so he can have success early.

From a business perspective, they can't go into next year without a new QB unless Finley or Dolegala shows franchise QB potential.  You have to sell tickets.  You either have to go QB in the first 2 rounds or sign/trade for a vet.

You have to weigh your options.  A lot of it comes down to how you evaluate the #4-6 QB's that you can potentially get at the top of 2 vs your top 1-2 prospects that you're potentially looking at in 1.  If there's 1-2 guys you like in the 2nd, then maybe you take Young and a QB in 1 and 2, similar to the AJ-Dalton draft.  You can't just punt on a QB this year, though.

How many of those rebuild came after going 0-16 potentially? Palmer was 32-33 his first 5 years (although he got hurt his 5th year but they were 0-4 when he did). Palmer came into a bad situation and we meandered around as an average team the first 5 years. Dalton came in with one of the better lines in football and a top 10 defense in both points and yards, something a rookie next year will 100% not have.  Dalton came into a really good situation and we fond success quicker, which is exactly what I am talking about setting up here.

The Falcons tried to fix their O line with multiple rookies this year and it was a disaster. The Vikings a couple years ago tried to fix it with 5 new starters through FA and draft, it was a disaster. Good O lines tend to take a year or two to meld together outside of replacing one starter. Thinking you can patch it up is wishful thinking and frankly disregarding that is not how this team will build.

From a business perspective loss of ticket sales is a drop in the bucket. The announced attendance was 45k on Sunday and while 45k people weren't there the Bengals benefited from selling 45k tickets. Let's go ahead and say our average attendance is in fact 45k, in comparison our average attendance during good years was about 60k tickets. Over the course of 8 home games that works out to 120k tickets we aren't selling right now versus some of our best years. Let's say each ticket is $70 a piece, that means the team is only missing out on 8.4 million dollars a year currently with a team that could be 0-16. Now that is probably offset a bit by Taylor and his staff making a substantially smaller amount than Marvin in salary and honestly it's a drop in the bucket compared to the roughly $250 million the national revenue share piece they get.

Chasing mid tier QB's statistically doesn't work, and Dalton was more outlier than he was rule as much as people here hated him. There have been 59 QB's drafted since Dalton (besides this recent class since it's too soon). Of those 59 QB's 5 QB's have worked out as decent or better long term starter options Prescott, Wilson, Jimmy G, Carr, Cousins and Jacoby Brissett may be that guy but we will see. So let's say for the sake of this discussion 6 out of 59 or roughly 10% of QB's could end up being some version of good after the 1st round. In comparison, there have been 21 QB's taken in the 1st since the Dalton draft with 11 being serviceable starters or 52%. Being drafted in the 1st doesn't make you good, being drafted in the 1st usually means if there is any chance you will be good people will take a swing on you because of the leagues desire to find a QB.

Putting off a QB for another year with this team is probably a difference in 2-3 wins. If you talk to professional gamblers a QB is worth 1-2 games usually with some of the elite ones being worth 3-3.5 wins. If this team is an 0-16 team they are most likely a 4 win or less team next year and no QB changes that so you invest in the team around the QB and run any guy out there to then position for one more big draft before the real push to win begins. As fans you hate to see it, but if you look at the teams who are winning now that came from a dumpster fire like us, San Francisco for example, they take a couple years of high pick drafting before they really make upward movement. 

[*psychdoctor*]

There are more picks in a draft then the number 1 pick. There are elite edge players and some very good OT in this draft. Bengals can select a OT and Guard in rounds 2-3. I don't think a good QB will be there in round 2-3. Maybe Hurts. I like Hurts and Eason but I have a feeling there will be a run in QB this year.

Bengals will be selecting a QB this year unless Finley shows more. If Finley shows something then yes, take Young. Thomas is a great pick but I am worried about Bengals history of drafting players that eventually get injured. I posted a thread on this. They have bad luck picking OT in round 1 with exception of Big Willie.