Can we talk Joe Burrow?

[hollodero]

--- -I am far from being any kind of expert in pretty much anything related to football - especially when it comes to evaluating draft prospects. I do not watch College football at all.

So I'd like to hear what the experts think about Joe Burrow becoming a Bengal.

The thing that struck me, and my "knowledge" only stems from a few highlight videos, is how he seems to have a lot of time and a lot of space in most of those big plays featured. He stands there in the pocket for several seconds, still has all the options to wait even longer or step up or roll out. Now when I think about NFL defenders and the Bengals line, I very much doubt that what he sees in the NFL even closely resembles that kind of possibilities. I for one am afraid that Burrow's greatest moments are to a large extent a product of great OLine play and that this won't really work out too well behind the current Bengals line.

Which is why I'd be for trading down, but never mind that. I just wonder if folks see it similarly or completely different than me. What are everyone's thoughts on Joe Burrow?

[CJD]

I am not an expert.
In any way.

But there was a mock draft on Fansided yesterday in which the author made a scouting report for each prospect.
https://withthefirstpick.com/2019/12/24/2020-nfl-draft-christmas-eve-mock-draft/2/

This is the scouting report for Joe Burrow:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1uSbcQD9tQkTvO3j01iaLBFHCDJMvIuxZG-bMNdPbHEg/edit

He didn't explicitly explain the scouting reports but this is what I've gleaned from them:
The Red line is the maximum value for each category.
The Blue line is Joe's rating in those categories.

The maximum values add up to 100 and are the basis for his grade. So, basically, the stats that have the highest maximum are, in this person's opinion, more important than the ones with lower maximum values (for example, arm strength is out of 10, accuracy is out of 30, so this guy is valuing accuracy as 3 times as valuable as arm strength).

He graded Joe as:
7/10 arm strength
25.5/30 arm accuracy
13.5/15 mobility
17.5/20 pocket presence/mechanics
22/25 mental game

For reference, this is how he graded Tua:
8/10 arm strength
25/30 arm accuracy
12/15 mobility
18/20 pocket presence/mechanics
18/25 mental game

So he believes Joe has a somewhat worse arm, slightly better accuracy, better mobility, slightly worse pocket presence and VASTLY superior mental game compared to Tua.

These are his pros and cons for Joe:

Quote:STRENGTHS
-displayed enough arm talent to get by at next level, has made some incredibly tough throws
-deep ball accuracy may be the best in the country
-Making fair share of back shoulder throws, Burrow has shown the ability to toss NFL caliber dart
-great footwork, provides himself with solid base
-big time poise, making gritty, tough plays when Tigers need the most
-plenty mobile, has shown good escapability
-knows when to throw ball away or tuck it
WEAKNESSES
His motion is a bit off, but nothing severe enough to warrant too much concern.
-has the capability to make a risky throw every once in a while

For those concerned about his arm strength, this is at least one person who believes his arm strength is only slightly worse than Tua's but still well above average and will work in the NFL. So much so that he didn't even list it as a weakness.

[hollodero]

Yeah I heard about arm strength concerns. Tough to evaluate imho.

What I take away from that is how he grades Burrow as barely being a first round talent, regarding his overall score... seems more and more he is "just" the best QB in the draft, but not an exceptional prospect in any way.

I still wonder how the OLine I saw factors into all that. It's easy to be cool and accurate and mobile and mentally fit if you have plenty time to do as you please. Some pretty mediocre QBs look amazing if they are well protected. I'd be interested how he does under pressure.

[CJD]

(12-25-2019, 06:04 PM)hollodero Wrote: Yeah I heard about arm strength concerns. Tough to evaluate imho.

What I take away from that is how he grades Burrow as barely being a first round talent, regarding his overall score... seems more and more he is "just" the best QB in the draft, but not an exceptional prospect in any way.

I still wonder how the OLine I saw factors into all that. It's easy to be cool and accurate and mobile and mentally fit if you have plenty time to do as you please. Some pretty mediocre QBs look amazing if they are well protected. I'd be interested how he does under pressure.

His grading scale is static, so he doesn't adjust it for this draft class. I looked through his other scouting reports and it looks like Burrow has the 4th or 5th highest rating overall. I don't know what that says about his scale but he is definitely the highest rated QB available.

EDIT: yea, his top 10 ratings (that he's done so far) are:
Chase Young 9.3
Derrick Brown 8.87
Jerry Jeudy 8.77
Jeffrey Okudah 8.65
Joe Burrow 8.59
Justin Herbert 8.59
D'Andre Swift 8.57
CeeDee Lamb 8.56
Isaiah Simmons 8.53
Xavier McKinney 8.33

So I think his scale needs a little work haha. You can't grade a player a "top 5 talent" and then say there's only 1 of them and expect that to make sense for a particular draft class

[hollodero]

(12-25-2019, 06:09 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: His grading scale is static, so he doesn't adjust it for this draft class. I looked through his other scouting reports and it looks like Burrow has the 4th or 5th highest rating overall. I don't know what that says about his scale but he is definitely the highest rated QB available.

EDIT: yea, his top 10 ratings (that he's done so far) are:
Chase Young 9.3
Derrick Brown 8.87
Jerry Jeudy 8.77
Jeffrey Okudah 8.65
Joe Burrow 8.59
Justin Herbert 8.59
D'Andre Swift 8.57
CeeDee Lamb 8.56
Isaiah Simmons 8.53
Xavier McKinney 8.33

So I think his scale needs a little work haha. You can't grade a player a "top 5 talent" and then say there's only 1 of them and expect that to make sense for a particular draft class

Under some aspect, yeah that does not make sense. I, however, can live with a draft class having no or just one "top 5 talent", for that could mean that the top prospects are just extraordinary weak in this particular year compared to other draft classes. Which might very well be true.

- I might be simple-minded here, but more and more I'd prefer Chase Young. I do find it goofy how he's obviously unable to pull his shirt over his belly, but aside from that, he looks actually amazing.
Trade down seems like a good idea as well. As for Burrow... well, I'd wait if someone has some more affirmative things to say or sites to show. Judging by the one you showed, it seems like a meh first overall pick. That possibly gets hurt behind our line.

[Nicomo Cosca]

LSU’s OL is really not that good. That should not be a concern at all. Burrow has been amazing all season while under pressure. The best in college football iirc.

[SunsetBengal]

(12-25-2019, 03:54 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I am not an expert.
In any way.

But there was a mock draft on Fansided yesterday in which the author made a scouting report for each prospect.
https://withthefirstpick.com/2019/12/24/2020-nfl-draft-christmas-eve-mock-draft/2/

This is the scouting report for Joe Burrow:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1uSbcQD9tQkTvO3j01iaLBFHCDJMvIuxZG-bMNdPbHEg/edit

He didn't explicitly explain the scouting reports but this is what I've gleaned from them:
The Red line is the maximum value for each category.
The Blue line is Joe's rating in those categories.

The maximum values add up to 100 and are the basis for his grade. So, basically, the stats that have the highest maximum are, in this person's opinion, more important than the ones with lower maximum values (for example, arm strength is out of 10, accuracy is out of 30, so this guy is valuing accuracy as 3 times as valuable as arm strength).

He graded Joe as:
7/10 arm strength
25.5/30 arm accuracy
13.5/15 mobility
17.5/20 pocket presence/mechanics
22/25 mental game

For reference, this is how he graded Tua:
8/10 arm strength
25/30 arm accuracy
12/15 mobility
18/20 pocket presence/mechanics
18/25 mental game

So he believes Joe has a somewhat worse arm, slightly better accuracy, better mobility, slightly worse pocket presence and VASTLY superior mental game compared to Tua.

These are his pros and cons for Joe:

For those concerned about his arm strength, this is at least one person who believes his arm strength is only slightly worse than Tua's but still well above average and will work in the NFL. So much so that he didn't even list it as a weakness.

Good stuff, appreciate you sharing that info.  

To me, it comes as no surprise that an analyst would have Joe's mental game rated so high.  Joe is a coach's son, so I would expect him to be a very cerebral type of player.  Also a testament to his mental makeup is that he's faced so many really tough teams this year, and thus far held up pristine under pressure.  I'd say that his physical skills are more than adequate to work at the pro level, but that mental game, the ability to diagnose what he sees, and think on his feet, are the abilities that set the better ones apart.

[*bfine32*]

I like to consider myself as good as any other amateur but I will tell you this: I absolutely suck at evaluating QBs. WTS, I loved Burrow earlier in the year when there was 3rd RD talk surrounding him, but I am not overly stoked about spending the #1OA on him. I like Herbert, dude has what you cannot teach (arm talent). I'd trade back with a team that had an off year (Chicago, Carolina, Chargers, Bucs, ….) who feel they are one piece away.

WTS, it most likely mean Burrow will be in Canton someday.

[*Synric*]

Joe Burrow is the most accurate passer in SEC History while setting SEC records for yards and touchdowns. He is the best QB in college under-pressure while being pressured on almost 1/3rd of his snaps (31%). He is the most accurate passer at all 3 levels short intermediate and long. He is the second best while passing from a clean pocket only behind Justin Fields.

For anyone bringing up arms strength or arm talent know he is second in college football throwing into tight windows behind only Trevor Lawrence. He is the best QB throwing contested throws only allowing his receivers a chance at the catch.

He is doing all that in the SEC which produces more NFL talent than any other conference in college football. I think they have had most players drafted for the last 13 or 14 years in a row.

Joe Burrow is hands down the best college QB I have seen in a while.

[ElkValleyBengal]

(12-26-2019, 12:06 AM)Synric Wrote: Joe Burrow is the most accurate passer in SEC History while setting SEC records for yards and touchdowns. He is the best QB in college under-pressure while being pressured on almost 1/3rd of his snaps (31%). He is the most accurate passer at all 3 levels short intermediate and long. He is the second best while passing from a clean pocket only behind Justin Fields.

For anyone bringing up arms strength or arm talent know he is second in college football throwing into tight windows behind only Trevor Lawrence. He is the best QB throwing contested throws only allowing his receivers a chance at the catch.

He is doing all that in the SEC which produces more NFL talent than any other conference in college football. I think they have had most players drafted for the last 13 or 14 years in a row.

Joe Burrow is hands down the best college QB I have seen in a while.

 

I assume you mean he has the highest career completion percentage.  As someone who saw a fair amount of Peyton Manning, I assure you Burrow isn't the most accurate.

[*Synric*]

(12-26-2019, 01:15 AM)ElkValleyBengal Wrote:  

I assume you mean he has the highest career completion percentage.  As someone who saw a fair amount of Peyton Manning, I assure you Burrow isn't the most accurate.

Nope I meant what I said.

[hollodero]

(12-25-2019, 07:53 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: LSU’s OL is really not that good.

I tried to find statistics that refute that (for I believed I saw a good line), but it seems, by all measures, it really isn't. 

That's why one should ask the experts.

--- And admittedly, Burrow looks good in pretty much any statistic. And passes the visual test for many. Meaning, the Austrian fraction of the Bengals community is no longer too opposed.
Just, Crazyjdawg's guy didn't grade him all that good, so there's that.

[*psychdoctor*]

Joe Burrow is a three-star athlete and was rated 24th dual threat quarterback in the nation before entering college. He is an overachiever with unmatched work ethics in terms of film study and mechanics.

What people are seeing from Joe Burrow is probably his ceiling that is he's probably as good as he's going to get. Other quarterbacks such as Justin Herbert has stronger arm and probably higher ceiling.

The risk in evaluating athletes in college is the anticipation of their ceiling at the pro level. That is why some quarterbacks that are athletic and gifted do not necessarily translate into good pro athletes.

Some have argued that arm strength cannot be taught it is an innate talent that you either have it or you don't. The same argument can be made about the mental or intangible traits of an athlete you cannot coach those aspects either.

So it comes down to competition in which the athlete is displaying his skills. The argument for Joe Burrow is that he is displaying elite traits and almost every aspect asked by a quarterback playing against the best college competition
If he did this for 3 years people would probably feel more comfortable and while he has not done so he was very good his junior year and simply fantastic his senior year


There is no crystal ball and no guarantee on whom is going to be successful in their pro career. If the Cincinnati Bengals draft Joe Burrow and it doesn't work out fans cannot blame the front office for trying. It is the most obvious pick by many who followed college football.

[Bengalstripes9]

Im certainly coming around to the idea of drafting Burrow. We havent seen a qb come along in a while with the resume Joe has. He’s had a tremendous year and I wouldn’t blame the franchise for picking him, even if he fails. We need a high level qb and this is our chance. He may struggle next year bc of our terrible offensive line, but it makes sense to grab a franchise qb when he’s staring you in the face, and your qb is looking at his back 9.

Still a lot to do in terms of building a team around him, but a major piece is checked off the list.
Still looking for another tackle, guard, pass rush help, and linebacker depth. Maybe even another cb.

I previously was thinking itd be better to take Young or trade for more picks and pick up a tackle and linebacker. But this team would probably screw up those picks. Grab the QB. Hopefully next year we can grab a pass rusher or OT high. Im more and more impressed with Burrow too. Seems like as sure of a thing as you can have for a young QB

[Bengalstripes9]

Could trade Dalton to a team like Washington and turn Dalton into an OT or LB

[Au165]

I have been really good on QBs the last couple years I have been evaluating. Burrow is as good a pick as has been available in the last three classes.

[SunsetBengal]

(12-27-2019, 05:57 PM)Bengalstripes18 Wrote: Could trade Dalton to a team like Washington and turn Dalton into an OT or LB

I doubt that Washington would have any interest in Dalton, for a couple of reasons.  First of all, they have Dewayne Haskins.  Although Haskins has shown his share of growing pains, he's also shown enough positives to prove it worthwhile to keep developing him.  Secondly, Andy Dalton to Washington seemed possible, when Jay Gruden was still the HC, now that he's down the road, the Bengals should see where Gruden lands and start courting that team as a trade partner for Dalton.

[jj22]

Burrow reminds me of Romo/Rivers. He's as worthy of the top pick as the last couple first overall qb's.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(12-27-2019, 11:20 PM)jj22 Wrote: Burrow reminds me of Romo/Rivers. He's as worthy of the top pick as the last couple first overall qb's.

What Burrow has done>>>Mayfield, Murray, Goff, etc, imo. He’s done it against better competition in the SEC.

[Gdale_Bengal]

(12-28-2019, 01:53 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: What Burrow has done>>>Mayfield, Murray, Goff, etc, imo. He’s done it against better competition in the SEC.

So are people still on the fence with burrow? Hes kinda destroying OU and its just halftime.