Prediction: AJ Green Will be Back

[Wes Mantooth]

(01-01-2020, 11:20 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Somebody posted Sporttrac had AJs estimated value at around $9M/per.  If you don't think that the Bengals would be doing him a huge favor, by offering him 3 years at $12/per, then I might suggest that you might be out of touch with reality. 

I wouldn't put too much stock into Sporttrac. I saw that number referenced too and it doesn't seem even close to accurate.

Yeah, AJ won't get Julio money (22 mil per) but he'll definitely get more than 9. And don't underestimate how quick we are to reward(overpay) some of our own.

Just to put that 9 mil into perspective, look at these names and dollars...

Tyrell Williams - 11.1
Sterling Shepard - 10.25
Davante Parker - 10.16
Devin Funchess - 10
Jamison Crowder - 10
Quincy Enunwa - 9.5
Desean Jackson - 9
Adam Humphries - 9

Allen Robinson was coming off an entire missed year, after only posting 800 yards the year prior. He had one good season in his career, three years prior to his deal... He's making 14 mil per.

Sammy Watkins has never played a full season. Ever. Only has 1 career 1000 yard year (1047). Has averaged around 700 yards a year... He's making 16 mil per.

Alshon Jeffrey hasn't posted a 1000 season in 5 years. Has missed time in 5 out of 8 years. Only two 1000 season in 8 years. Only 10+ TDs once, and it was 6 years ago.  Hes making 13 mil per...

Theres no way that 9 mil estimate is accurate. And its not going to look at 3 years @ 12 per as a favor. Thats probably an insult at this point.

[mallorian69]

Someone will pay him what he wants but I hope it wont be the Bengals.

He made a comment on Monday that really got under my skin and just proved to me he has been sandbagging. Here is the quote from the quick hits article on bengals.com

Quote:“I’m done with rehab,” he said. “I won’t take much time off. I’ll start working out right away.”

Now what is the likelyhood that his rehab would just happen to end the day after the season ended? Not very. 

I don't want anyone who quit on his teammates and lied to his coaches anywhere near this team.

[BengalsBong]

(01-01-2020, 03:04 PM)CINwillWIN Wrote: I agree.

Good post. (+ rep)

Green needs new blood like any of us. If he had a top-notch QB signal caller, Green could/would be the hall of fame WR I think he already is. Watching the QB(s) on this current team is just bad. Andy still throws into traffic, over throws, under throws, only has time to check two options.. not many QB(s) can deal with that kind of insanity.

IMO: (cont.)
OL needs to be signed, not drafted. Andre coming back was a bad sign on bad things for this season. This team continuously builds linemen through the draft then looses them...that trend is just horrible. Drafted linemen takes years to develop, and I just don't see any point of it. Sign proven free agents, pay them well to protect your franchise...not a hard decision or idea to comprehend.

Sorry, got off topic, sorry Toast..

IMHO (cont. part 2):
AJ needs help. He's getting older, I personally think that this next season he should be franchise tagged. This past season was a loss, and resigning him to a keeper contract based on his (Hmm...well)(even) his last two, or hell, (three) past seasons, ... (hmm). Franchise tag him. He might end up being one of those players that might retire, if the current Oline, or QB situation...or being realistic, the Coaching and front office don't make the necessary changes needed, what's the point of keeper contracts...let the man go. Why should he be tortured like the rest of us fans...

I still see Dalton telling Green where to line up has been doing it since his rookie year. You can tell Green relies on his skill alone and does not study the play book or train his behind off in the off season like a Jerry Rice did or Green would be a hall of famer but it is his fault that he is not and only his fault that he does not strive to be the best. Not to mention he does not have that killer instinct that you need to dominate a game he can do it now and then but not enough to get his team to a super bowl which is needed to reach the hall of fame as a Bengal since we only have one player in it.

I hope he is not re-signed and they get a burner in the 2nd or 3rd round to go with the guys we got now. Or a free agent which is unlikely the way our off seasons go.

[MEBengalsFan]

(01-01-2020, 02:46 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I could be wrong here (I hope I am) but I think AJ Green will come back on a multi-year deal. And I think it will be a contract in which many here will view as both risky, and as us over-paying.

Here's the why and the how I see this happening...

-If you watched AJ's interview from the other day it seemed a little "about-face" from the statements made just a weeks earlier, where a little frustration and anger seeped through. These most recent comments seemed more in-line with many made in the offseason. (Even Hoard made mention of this in a question to AJ.)

It could be my imagination, or this could all be player-speak and fluff. But in watching this and reading between the lines, I'm getting the feeling they are indeed still working on a deal. And I do believe/buy the idea that the Bengals, more often than not, like do this after the season. I think discussions already started ramping up again, and that's why AJ may have seemed a little more upbeat.

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-I think both Dalton and Glenn come off the books this season, resulting in 25+ mil in freed up cap space.

Andy wants a chance to start, as he should, and that's not happening here if Burrow is the pick. On the flip-side, I don't see Mike ponying up 18 mil for a backup even if Andy accepted the role of mentor. I think he's traded for late pick or us simply released.

If you've followed the saga that was Cordy Glenn this season then you know what a mess it was. Frankly, I'm shocked he wasn't cut mid-season. He's a high-priced cancer that's going into his final year. I just can't see any way he returns. I think he's simply released, as I can't imagine him having any trade value. (Best value for him was in-season to a desperate team with limited options.)

You may see another few cuts or trades too (Please, dump Bobby Hart's salary!!!!) Regardless, we're going to have a ton of cap space and dollars that need to be spent. Even before these freed up dollars we were projected to have a lot of room.

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-Mike will almost always spend in-house before being forced to splurge in free agency. That's how a guy like Bernard is making 5 mil per to rush for 200 yards a season. That's how Hart is making 7 mil. That's why they dumped a bunch of money, elite money, in Kirkpatrick's lap despite only having limited starting experience.

We need to spend a ton, and I think they'll look at extensions before considering free agency. A new deal for AJ and Mixon, then sprinkle in a couple other extensions, will bring them a lot closer to the floor.

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-Mike needs to sell tickets. Mike also needs a "star" wide receiver to pair with his new toy/savior Burrow.

As much as I love Boyd, he's not a #1. He's a very good #2. He's not your 6'4 blazing fast outside and deep threat. And as much as I was impressed by Tate, he's not going to move the needle in ticket sales or confindence.

I personally think the correct play is to stick with Boyd and Tate, draft a WR in the 3rd or 4th, and maybe look at a short-deal vet at 4-7 mil per to round out the corp. But again, that's not going to win over a lot of casual fans. Nor will it eat up as much cap space that needs to be spent.

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-I think AJ and his camp know everything I just said. This franchise wants and needs him. And this franchise will also pay him more and for longer than anywhere else.

It's mutually beneficial. He'll get more guarantees and security here than anywhere.

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Conclusion/Prediction....

Look for news this offseason like this: AJ Green signs for 4yrs/60 million.

I think it'll be somewhere in that neighborhood. Maybe 3 years, or maybe 5, but no tag, no trade, and no 2 year either. And I'd bet 4 or 5 years before 3. It will be longer than makes sense, extremely risky, yet somehow will make a lot of homers happy and confident.

I can hear it now...

"We got Joe Burrow, we get AJ Green back, we got Jonah Williams, we extended Mixon and we added a couple retreads or over the hill names!!! "

He's coming back, folks. 3-5 years @ no less than 12 mil and probably no more than 16. It'll happen...

AJ will team up with Sanu in New England. PATS will offer a 2nd round pick and one of their WR in the trade, but it won't be Sanu. 

[Sled21]

(01-02-2020, 07:29 AM)BengalsBong Wrote: I still see Dalton telling Green where to line up has been doing it since his rookie year. You can tell Green relies on his skill alone and does not study the play book or train his behind off in the off season like a Jerry Rice did or Green would be a hall of famer but it is his fault that he is not and only his fault that he does not strive to be the best. Not to mention he does not have that killer instinct that you need to dominate a game he can do it now and then but not enough to get his team to a super bowl which is needed to reach the hall of fame as a Bengal since we only have one player in it.

I hope he is not re-signed and they get a burner in the 2nd or 3rd round to go with the guys we got now. Or a free agent which is unlikely the way our off seasons go.

Which garbage dump do you visit to come up with this stuff?

[Nicomo Cosca]

(01-02-2020, 10:55 AM)Sled21 Wrote: Which garbage dump do you visit to come up with this stuff?

Yeah, that was one of the dumbest things I’ve ever seen said here. SMDH

[fredtoast]

(01-01-2020, 03:44 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: That's what he wants, and what it will take to lock him up. If you think he's going to ink something at 5-8 million dollar base, with loads of incentives then you're kidding yourself.

What wiull he get from another team if he does not sign here?

I also think Green will be back with the Bengals but nothing close to 5 year $60 million. 

[fredtoast]

(01-02-2020, 01:19 AM)mallorian69 Wrote: Now what is the likelyhood that his rehab would just happen to end the day after the season ended? Not very. 

It is much more likely than a player faking an injury in a contract year that cost him millions of dollars.

To many people base their opinion on emotions other than logic.  The VERY WORST thing an old injured WR could do in a contract year is fake a poor recovery from an injury.  If Green was able to play this year then he would have suited up for at least a game or two to prove he was healthy.  "Sandbagging" would accomplish nothing other than costing Green millions of dollars.

[bengaloo]

(01-02-2020, 12:15 PM)fredtoast Wrote: It is much more likely than a player faking an injury in a contract year that cost him millions of dollars.

To many people base their opinion on emotions other than logic.  The VERY WORST thing an old injured WR could do in a contract year is fake a poor recovery from an injury.  If Green was able to play this year then he would have suited up for at least a game or two to prove he was healthy.  "Sandbagging" would accomplish nothing other than costing Green millions of dollars.

Yep

[Gdale_Bengal]

Mike brown will do it. He will sign AJ to a huge blockbuster deal and do basically nothing else. This isnt a New Dey. This is potentially ruining a good young HC for the rest of his life.

Plug the majority of cap space in AJ and then say that's all we could do. I hate Mike Brown.

[Wes Mantooth]

(01-02-2020, 12:09 PM)fredtoast Wrote: What wiull he get from another team if he does not sign here?

I also think Green will be back with the Bengals but nothing close to 5 year $60 million. 

You tell me, what do you think his market is? (I've already laid it out pretty clearly for here )

My answer for his market elsewhere is that it depends on the team, and it depends on his motivations.

Option A - He goes to a contender on a 1 year deal for two reasons: 1.) To try to win a ring. 2.) To showcase his ability and improve his market for FA in 2021.  This may look like: 1yr 14 mil, or 1 year 8-10 mil + incentives.

Option B  - He signs something like a 3yr/40 mil deal with the highest bidder.

And what I see is most likely what I stated earlier... he stays here on a 4 yr 50-60 mil deal.

Again, what do you think he'll get? Give me a number, or a range of scenarios.

We'll see...

[R3stangs]

(01-01-2020, 08:21 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Hmm, don't be so sure of that.  No matter how high Joe's ceiling may be, it's going to be culture shock adjusting to playing in the NFL, compared to CFB.  He's going to need the benefit of veteran receivers who not only know and understand the NFL game, but have the ability to modify their own game, to aid a  rookie QB getting settled in.  

He'll have to develop chemistry with whoever we have at wide receiver, AJ offers no specific benefit for Burrow over any other good veteran. Which is why I'd rather let AJ walk and find another veteran with a better injury history. Especially since he claims that to stay healthy he'll skip all the OTA's and maybe training camp if he doesn't get what he wants, so there may be little opportunity to even develop chemistry between them.

Really soured on AJ over this year with his lack of ability to get on the field and more recently his comments regarding his contract expectations. 

We'll see i guess. He's just too risky for me. 

[BrownAssClown]

I would offer AJ at the most a 2 year incentive laden deal. If he does not accept I would let him walk. This is a "What have you done for me lately league." I remember last year baseball fans saying the Washington Nationals were foolish to let their star player Bryce Harper walk; well the Nationals are World Champs this year. I know football and baseball are two different animals but the point I'm trying to make is the money you save by letting Green go could be used to bolster other parts of the team; don't get me wrong, Green is a game changer when healthy, but will he ever be healthy again. All this being said, it would not surprise me if Mike Brown offers Green a 3+ year overly generous contract because of Brown's loyalty to his players. What I would really like to see is AJ being franchised, and if he throws a fit, so be it. This is a business as AJ has said himself.

[samhain]

(01-02-2020, 01:18 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: You tell me, what do you think his market is? (I've already laid it out pretty clearly for here )

My answer for his market elsewhere is that it depends on the team, and it depends on his motivations.

Option A - He goes to a contender on a 1 year deal for two reasons: 1.) To try to win a ring. 2.) To showcase his ability and improve his market for FA in 2021.  This may look like: 1yr 14 mil, or 1 year 8-10 mil + incentives.

Option B  - He signs something like a 3yr/40 mil deal with the highest bidder.

And what I see is most likely what I stated earlier... he stays here on a 4 yr 50-60 mil deal.

Again, what do you think he'll get? Give me a number, or a range of scenarios.

We'll see...

I agree with most of this.  It probably comes down to whether he wants to maximize his likely last contract or go someplace and try to win something for a little less money/fewer years.  

If he's after money, the Bengals are probably his best bet.  They have to be the most likely team to pay him based on what he's done in the past. To other teams, he's a wild card piece that they can hopefully hit the lottery on if they are already close to being a contender.   I doubt he'd leave here and take big money from another team as comparably shitty as the Bengals.  

The other factor is whether he's being honest or just diplomatic about wanting to finish his career here.  If he low key wants out of here, then maybe he'd take less to move on.  I wouldn't blame him at this point.  

[Weazzel80]

I want to see what AJ & Burrow can do together

[Nicomo Cosca]

(01-02-2020, 02:30 PM)Weazzel80 Wrote: I want to see what AJ & Burrow can do together

Sure could be something.

[fredtoast]

(01-02-2020, 01:18 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Again, what do you think he'll get? Give me a number, or a range of scenarios.

I don't claim to know the future because I have no idea what his medical condition is.  It is entirely possible that this is a situation like with Andrew Luck and Green never plays again.

An the contract value does not mean a lot on this situation.  With a guy who can't stay healthy it is about guaranteed money.

He will be 32 at the start of next season so I don't see him getting a 5 year deal anywhere.

I'd say a one year deal for $10-$12 million or a 2-3 year deal with no more than $10-$12 guaranteed.

But I agree with you that the Bengals will probably offer him more than any other team.

[BengalsBong]

(01-02-2020, 10:55 AM)Sled21 Wrote: Which garbage dump do you visit to come up with this stuff?

This one. And the fact I have been a fan since 1990 and can voice my opinion thank  you very much now drive thru.

[Sled21]

(01-02-2020, 09:10 PM)BengalsBong Wrote: This one. And the fact I have been a fan since 1990 and can voice my opinion thank  you very much now drive thru.

Got a late start did ya??? 

[Luvnit2]

(01-02-2020, 01:18 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: You tell me, what do you think his market is? (I've already laid it out pretty clearly for here )

My answer for his market elsewhere is that it depends on the team, and it depends on his motivations.

Option A - He goes to a contender on a 1 year deal for two reasons: 1.) To try to win a ring. 2.) To showcase his ability and improve his market for FA in 2021.  This may look like: 1yr 14 mil, or 1 year 8-10 mil + incentives.

Option B  - He signs something like a 3yr/40 mil deal with the highest bidder.

And what I see is most likely what I stated earlier... he stays here on a 4 yr 50-60 mil deal.

Again, what do you think he'll get? Give me a number, or a range of scenarios.

We'll see...

I referenced Spotrac for those who thought Green had a value of 16 million plus, not as a guess of his contract.

I think he signs with us for 3 years, 39 or 40 million (includes incentives) with 20 million guaranteed