Tua Tagovailoa to enter NFL Draft

[*ochocincos*]

Announced about an hour ago.

Hearing he's expected to be a Top 10 pick based on his recovery prognosis come draft day.

[Au165]

The biggest advantage here for us is that is one more QB (Which we most likely won't need) between 1 and 33.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-06-2020, 03:22 PM)Au165 Wrote: The biggest advantage here for us is that is one more QB (Which we most likely won't need) between 1 and 33.

Hypothetical:
Would you trade back with Miami for picks 5, 18, and 25-32 (based on where Texans finish)?

That would give the Bengals 4 picks in the top 33, which could allow them to get Tua plus two more guys in the 1st round.
It's also considered a good deal for the Bengals according to the trade value chart. 

If that happened, I'd go Tua at 5 along with a combo of WR, OL, and/or LB between 18-33.

[Whatever]

(01-06-2020, 03:52 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Hypothetical:
Would you trade back with Miami for picks 5, 18, and 25-32 (based on where Texans finish)?

That would give the Bengals 4 picks in the top 33, which could allow them to get Tua plus two more guys in the 1st round.
It's also considered a good deal for the Bengals according to the trade value chart. 

If that happened, I'd go Tua at 5 along with a combo of WR, OL, and/or LB between 18-33.

I think Tua entering the draft makes it a lot less likely Miami or anyone else makes a move up for Burrow.

I wouldn't take Tua at 5 mainly due to his injury history.  I'd consider gambling on him at 18, but he'll be gone by then in this class.

The supporting cast argument against Burrow can also be made in spades against Tua.  Jeudy is a Top 10 prospect at WR, Ruggs is being projected as a 1st rounder, Willis is being projected as a 1st rounder at RT, and Leatherwood was in late 1st-early 2nd discussion as a LT.  

[*ochocincos*]

(01-06-2020, 04:09 PM)Whatever Wrote: I think Tua entering the draft makes it a lot less likely Miami or anyone else makes a move up for Burrow.

I wouldn't take Tua at 5 mainly due to his injury history.  I'd consider gambling on him at 18, but he'll be gone by then in this class.

The supporting cast argument against Burrow can also be made in spades against Tua.  Jeudy is a Top 10 prospect at WR, Ruggs is being projected as a 1st rounder, Willis is being projected as a 1st rounder at RT, and Leatherwood was in late 1st-early 2nd discussion as a LT.  

I've never made the supporting cast argument against Burrow, but I know that's not what you're saying.
Those that make that argument need to realize that all NFL teams have a better supporting cast than what college teams have.

As for Tua, the injury makes me have him lower than Burrow. But Tua is my QB2 barring an injury setback.
And the ability to get two more 1st rounders along with Tua would ease that worry even more because you'd be able to build an even better supporting cast.

I didn't mean to make it sound like I wanted Tua + trade backs over Burrow at 1. I was just saying that if it happened, that's how I would want it to play out.

[ZWP]

(01-06-2020, 03:52 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Hypothetical:
Would you trade back with Miami for picks 5, 18, and 25-32 (based on where Texans finish)?

That would give the Bengals 4 picks in the top 33, which could allow them to get Tua plus two more guys in the 1st round.
It's also considered a good deal for the Bengals according to the trade value chart. 

If that happened, I'd go Tua at 5 along with a combo of WR, OL, and/or LB between 18-33.

In short , yes.

This team has a lot of needs and holes, and if you have the chance to swap the 1st pick for the 5th pick, and pick up two more 1st round picks in this draft then you do it without thinking twice.

[Benton]

Injury really is the biggest thing here. And given our bad luck with first rounders and injuries, I can't see taking another when we have the foa pick and guys with no injury flags on the board.

[*bengalfan74*]

(01-06-2020, 05:06 PM)Benton Wrote: Injury really is the biggest thing here. And given our bad luck with first rounders and injuries, I can't see taking another when we have the foa pick and guys with no injury flags on the board.

Agree

I'm no doctor and I don't have any inside info but with Tua's injury history I just can't see taking him in the top 10 in any trade back scenario. Then like you say add in our early draft pick injury history and I just don't see it as an option.

I can't even imagine the backlash if they took Tua early in the first and he had to sit out the first season and then missed more games in 2nd year. 

[*ochocincos*]

(01-06-2020, 05:06 PM)Benton Wrote: Injury really is the biggest thing here. And given our bad luck with first rounders and injuries, I can't see taking another when we have the foa pick and guys with no injury flags on the board.

If people are confident of Tua's recovery, Ben Baby shared something noteworthy on Tua's performance to date via Twitter:

Quote:Per @ESPNStatsInfo, Tua Tagovailoa's career QBR of 93.4 is the best since 2004, when the metric orginiated. A phenomenal talent.

This is basically saying that Tua is a safe bet to draft if you believe his injuries will be behind him once he's recovered from his current hip injury.

[Au165]

(01-06-2020, 03:52 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Hypothetical:
Would you trade back with Miami for picks 5, 18, and 25-32 (based on where Texans finish)?

That would give the Bengals 4 picks in the top 33, which could allow them to get Tua plus two more guys in the 1st round.
It's also considered a good deal for the Bengals according to the trade value chart. 

If that happened, I'd go Tua at 5 along with a combo of WR, OL, and/or LB between 18-33.

I would not, because you will have to make that trade before the draft since we are 1. That is an issue because a team that wants Tua could then trade with Detroit or NYG to jump in front of us to take him. You can't make that trade expecting to get Tua because it's very likely you would not get him. 

[*ochocincos*]

(01-06-2020, 05:30 PM)Au165 Wrote: I would not, because you will have to make that trade before the draft since we are 1. That is an issue because a team that wants Tua could then trade with Detroit or NYG to jump in front of us to take him. You can't make that trade expecting to get Tua because it's very likely you would not get him. 

Very good point.
Right now, Burrow (or anyone) is guaranteed to the Bengals.
If they trade with MIA, their target may not be there at 5.
And the Bengals have been very easy to read recently in regards to who they are targeting.

[Big Boss]

Good for the Dolphins.

[Fan_in_Kettering]

I’m not hip to this decision.

[Benton]

(01-06-2020, 05:26 PM)ochocincos Wrote: If people are confident of Tua's recovery, Ben Baby shared something noteworthy on Tua's performance to date via Twitter:

This is basically saying that Tua is a safe bet to draft if you believe his injuries will be behind him once he's recovered from his current hip injury.

Understood.

My concern is this teams luck (ability to gauge, whatever you want to call it) a players injury recovery chances. We've wasted a few early rounders in the last decade because 'oh, the recovery rate from this type of injury is nearly 100 percent; we can't pass this guy up, he's basically a top 10 guy who slid because all those other teams are scaredy cats.'

Then six months later were scrambling for a starting player.

Tua may recover and be blowing up the playoffs this time next year. Or the year after. Who knows. I just don't like our history of taking known injuries.

[*Synric*]

PFF's breakdown of Tua Tagovailoa.

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-tua-tagovailoa-is-every-bit-a-franchise-qb-prospect

[Nati#1]

I would take Tua if that means more picks for us by trading back.

[Nati#1]

Anthony Munoz was injured too..

[Nicomo Cosca]

(01-06-2020, 04:57 PM)ZWP Wrote: In short , yes.

This team has a lot of needs and holes, and if you have the chance to swap the 1st pick for the 5th pick, and pick up two more 1st round picks in this draft then you do it without thinking twice.

Nah, I’m definitely still thinking twice...

[Nicomo Cosca]

(01-06-2020, 11:39 PM)Nati#1 Wrote: Anthony Munoz was injured too..

And for every Munoz you throw out there I can name a dozen players that couldn’t overcome their injuries. Including our last top 10 pick...

[Hammerstripes]

There is no way in the world Miami is giving up 3 first rounders to move up 4 spots. It's just not a reasonable scenario.

Why would they? They can call the Lions at #3 and just move up 2 spots and give up very little to get Tua.

That being said - IF they did do that, you will need to take on of those picks or the 33rd pick and move back up. ANYONE that wants a QB is going to be moving up in front of the Dolphins and Bengals. So, you basically have to ask yourself if it's worth it to slide down and pick up and extra low first rounder to get Tua instead of Burrow.