Full offseason of changes and mock

[Crowe]

I went through and traded several players for picks as you'll see below and then I did something un-bengal like and traded 3 of the picks that I acquired for an extra 4th.

1,23,33,65,97,100(added in trade),108,129,139(traded),146(traded),147,154(traded),161,193

Franchise AJ Green and trade to NE for 1st round pick 23. I love Green and want him to retire a Bengal however being 32, missing all of last year and half of the 2 prior seasons is not a recipe for signing a guy to a big long term deal. See what happens this year and if he is healthy again and plays well then maybe try to bring him back in 2021 if he is interested. Getting a 1st round pick for him is good and what they should have done during the season.

Trade Andy to chicago for Roquan Smith and a 5th, pick 146. I floated around the idea of who I cold trade Andy to. Chicago doesn't have a 3rd but they make sense as a team looking to upgrade so I decided to trade for a player and a 5th and Smith was a guy I wanted us to draft a few years ago who is primed for a big bounce back with a change of scenery. Dalton would give Chicago a solid QB to help the overall team and even push Trubisky to play better.

Trade Cordy Glenn to denver for a 4th, 108. Gotta protect Drew Lock and Glenn is a solid bounce back candidate who's unhappy here

Trade Shawn Williams to 49ers for a 5th, pick 139. Solid but I believe he could be upgraded and another team could use his services more from a depth perspective compared to him being a starter here and I think Williams would thrive in SF due to how well their front 7 is.

Trade Dre Kirkpatrick to dallas for a 5th, pick 147. Solid but not spectacular and for a fifth a team like Dallas who could use some depth at the position, trading a 5th isn't bad.

Trade Gio to houston for a 5th, pick 154. Love Gio, but he is overpaid and underused. A team like Houston would love to add him to help out Deshaun Watson and give them some depth in the backfield.

Trade 5th round picks 154(29.8points), 146(33points), & 139(36.5points), which equals 99.3 points on the draft chart, to giants for pick 100 which is worth 100 points. I decided to trade up and secure another 4th due to the fact that I feel we would get a better value with the one pick compared to the 3 5th round picks. All in all we would still have 11 total picks.

Cut players
Bobby Hart saves $2,850,000 - He makes too much money and is constantly being abused by edge rushers. We have to get better on the line.
BW Webb saves $2,584,375 - He looked bad this season and can't seem to tackle. If we get better on the backend then we can potentially give our defense more of a break as we seemed to give up to many big plays this past season.
Randy Bullock saves $1,625,000 - Time to upgrade and hopefully have a little more consistency in the kicking game
Alex Erickson saves $1,700,000 - I like him, but there is no room for him with Brandon Wilson as a returner and Phillips, plus he is hardly used as a receiver.

Projected salary cap after trades and cuts $97,792,099 which could be more depending on if they up the salary cap before the start of the season.

Free agents
Joe Thuney G 6 year deal around 84 mil - 14mil per year - He gives us a big upgrade on he interior and him and Jonah Williams potentially give us an awesome left side.
Joe Schobert LB 5 year around 60 mil - 12mil per year - This guy just gets it done. He helps Pratt develop while giving us a much needed upgrade at the position while also weakening a division opponent.
Kendall Fuller CB 4 year 35 mil - 8.75mil per year - He''s young and just won a superbowl. He gives us more flexibility after moving on from Dre K. and gives us a solid 1-4 at CB.
Hunter Henry TE 4 year 48 mil - 12mil per year - Big time weapon for Mr. Burrow. He's young and an upgrade from Eifert and Uzo.
Nick Vigil LB 2 year 8 mil - 4mil per year - Widly inconsistent, but did play better once Pratt started catching on. He may get more from another team in that case I'd let him walk and look to grab a guy like Blake Martinez or Devondre Campbell or Nick Kwiatkoski
Dennard CB 3 year 24 mil - 8mil per year - He's solid, but cannot stay healthy. If he is offered more let him walk.
Brandon Wilson S 2 year 3.5 mil - 1.75mil per year - Good return guy and ST player. Can he do more in the defense
Fej S 3 year 5 mil - 1.65mil per year - Great ST player, but like Wilson can he be more than just that.
Billings DT 4 year 28 mil - 7mil per year - Has started to show potential, but is still not a great pass rusher. He may command a little more than 7 million per year which I wouldn't mind giving him as long as it isn't over 10/per year.

Taking into consideration that I divided the total amount by year and put a single year into the salary cap for this year would leave us after all of these signings with somewhere around $28,642,099 which gives us flexibility to sign draft class, extend players such as mixon and maybe even add in another free agent or 2 or add to the total amount for the guys we signed. We could also free up some more space by restructuring a few aging players.

Onto the Draft

1 Joe Burrow, QB LSU - Ohio boy who is calm and confident. Putting him behind a new and improved line and giving him a plethora of weapons would bode very well for this team.

23 From NE Laviska Shenault Jr WR Colorado - A legitimate number 1 who would pair great with Boyd, Henry, and Mixon to create a formidable offense.

33 Josh Jones, OT Houston - I think Fred Johnson will likely show well in the pre-season, but adding a guy like Jones for the future at RT is smart and gives us better depth.


65 Kyle Dugger, S Lenoir-Rhyne - Small school prospect who's an insane athlete. I think he pairs nicely on the backend with Bates to give us 2 playmaking safeties.

97 KJ Hill, WR Ohio State - Adding another guy like Hill takes this offense to another level. Burrow would have options left and right which is something that has been lacking the last couple of years.

100 From NY Giants Bradlee Anae, Edge Utah - Relentless motor who adds some good depth to our rotation and can play OLB in 3-4 or DE in 4-3.

108 From Denver Anthony McFarland, RB Maryland - Gio's replacement and adds some great speed behind Mixon. I like Rodney Anderson and he is a darkhorse for a great comeback candidate, but his injury history is long and Trayveon williams did nothing last year.

129 AJ Green, CB Oklahoma State - Depth at CB to mold for the future. Not afraid to play on either side and gives us a little peace of mind in the event that a guy goes down.

147 From Dallas Joe Bachie, LB Michigan State - ST player whom could rotate into the defense to offer a little depth.

160 Tyler Johnson, WR Minnesota - What another weapon for Burrow. Well hell yea. Johnson may go earlier, but the WR class this year is stacked so some guys are going to fall. If he is here which is where his projection has been then we absolutely grab him. He is a sure handed guy and allows us to run a 4 reciever set of Boyd, Chenault, Hill and Johnson. I don't like Ross and Tate to me is a solid number 5 so Johnson should get a chance to see snaps IMO.

192 Rodrigo Blankenship, K Georgia - Finally a replacement at K. Goodbye Bullock

[J24]

Love- Getting Roquan Smith
Like- signing of Kendell Fuller
? Where does Dennard play if we sign Fuller and get rid of Williams? SS or Boundary CB?
Don't like -Signing of Schobert I think it's redundant if we get Roquan Smith. Pratt played well enough at the end of the year to think he can start at MLB or WLB opposite of Smith.
Can't Stand- trading AJ I think it will help out Burrow more if he had a trustworthy #1 WR. Even if it is a 32 year old WR.

[Crowe]

(02-22-2020, 04:39 PM)J24 Wrote: Love- Getting Roquan Smith
Like- signing of Kendell Fuller
? Where does Dennard play if we sign Fuller and get rid of Williams? SS or Boundary CB?
Don't like -Signing of Schobert I think it's redundant if we get Roquan Smith. Pratt played well enough at the end of the year to think he can start at MLB or WLB opposite of Smith.
Can't Stand- trading AJ I think it will help out Burrow more if he had a trustworthy #1 WR. Even if it is a 32 year old WR.

Yea I think getting Roquan would be a good pickup, same as Fuller. Dennard is good, but you know he's going to miss some time(lol), so having a solid 3-4 cb IMO is necessary especially when going up against so many offensive weapons in our division.

I'd prefer Littleton, but i'm trying to be a little more realistic in that I think we would go after schobert before corey. I also read that we might see more 3-4 this season due to Lou being a 3-4 guy so having Schobert next to Smith would be good IMO.

I love AJ, but the dude is snakebitten and 32. If healthy he'd be great, but I think we need more than just one great player and adding an extra 1st gives us options. I just don't think he's worth a huge contract at this point due to his last 3 seasons being massively injury prone.

[TrenchWarfare]

Well done!

[*ochocincos*]

I don't like that trade if I'm Chicago.
I love it if I'm Cincinnati.

[milksheikh]

Erickson just put up 500 yards receiving and had his best year receiving with us and you want to release him?? Bullock also had a solid year, 87% field goal percentage is not bad at all.

[CJD]

Is there something I'm missing? Why would Chicago want to dump Roquan Smith like that?

Besides that, I love the first 4 picks. Shenault is quickly becoming my favorite WR in this class (outside of Jeudy and Lamb).

[Whatever]

(02-24-2020, 09:44 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Is there something I'm missing? Why would Chicago want to dump Roquan Smith like that?

Besides that, I love the first 4 picks. Shenault is quickly becoming my favorite WR in this class (outside of Jeudy and Lamb).

Because he's not that good.  He had a 52.4 PFF grade last year.

[CJD]

(02-24-2020, 10:53 AM)Whatever Wrote: Because he's not that good.  He had a 52.4 PFF grade last year.

Well going into 2019, he was considered a prospect ready to break out.

He had a sophomore slump but I would be pretty shocked if Chicago gave up on him only 2 years in. If I had a linebacker with Smith's sideline to sideline speed and agility at the LB position, I'd let him be bad for at least 2 seasons before shipping him off for peanuts.

[Whatever]

(02-24-2020, 11:15 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Well going into 2019, he was considered a prospect ready to break out.

He had a sophomore slump but I would be pretty shocked if Chicago gave up on him only 2 years in. If I had a linebacker with Smith's sideline to sideline speed and agility at the LB position, I'd let him be bad for at least 2 seasons before shipping him off for peanuts.

Well, like most of these trades, it's not close to being realistic.  Although honestly, the Bengals are getting screwed on that one.  A solid starting QB for a 1st round bust LB and a 5th is highway robbery for the Bears.  The Bears only have$18 mil in cap space for next year and would have to trim salary to make it work, anyways.

[CJD]

(02-24-2020, 11:33 AM)Whatever Wrote: Well, like most of these trades, it's not close to being realistic.  Although honestly, the Bengals are getting screwed on that one.  A solid starting QB for a 1st round bust LB and a 5th is highway robbery for the Bears.  The Bears only have$18 mil in cap space for next year and would have to trim salary to make it work, anyways.

How much do you think Andy Dalton is worth in straight draft capital?

Because everyone in the universe knows that the Bengals will cut him if they can't trade him.

So the only benefit to trading for him rather than waiting for him to be cut and then signing him is if his contract were particularly friendly or if there was a risk that the player, given his choice, would choose not to sign with your team, thus making the deal with the Bengals rather than Dalton himself would be required to get Dalton on your team.

I find it hard to believe that 17.7 million for Dalton's services would be considered a particularly friendly contract. Especially with the number of QBs being available this off season. Because of the wealth of starting QBs available in free agency, I don't see Dalton being in such high demand that the Bears would risk missing out because of being outbid. Especially when, as you said, the Bears are strapped for cap space.

If I were to estimate Dalton's worth as a trade piece, the high end would be a mid 4th round pick. I'd be absolutely shocked if the Bengals could convert him into a 3rd round pick, given the obvious nature of his lack of a future with the team.

So, basically, you're saying Roquan Smith, a top 10 pick at LB with all the physical tools you could ever dream of for his position, is worth less than the value difference between a mid 4th round pick and a 5th round pick?

[Whatever]

(02-24-2020, 12:20 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: How much do you think Andy Dalton is worth in straight draft capital?

Because everyone in the universe knows that the Bengals will cut him if they can't trade him.

So the only benefit to trading for him rather than waiting for him to be cut and then signing him is if his contract were particularly friendly or if there was a risk that the player, given his choice, would choose not to sign with your team, thus making the deal with the Bengals rather than Dalton himself would be required to get Dalton on your team.

I find it hard to believe that 17.7 million for Dalton's services would be considered a particularly friendly contract. Especially with the number of QBs being available this off season. Because of the wealth of starting QBs available in free agency, I don't see Dalton being in such high demand that the Bears would risk missing out because of being outbid. Especially when, as you said, the Bears are strapped for cap space.

If I were to estimate Dalton's worth as a trade piece, the high end would be a mid 4th round pick. I'd be absolutely shocked if the Bengals could convert him into a 3rd round pick, given the obvious nature of his lack of a future with the team.

So, basically, you're saying Roquan Smith, a top 10 pick at LB with all the physical tools you could ever dream of for his position, is worth less than the value difference between a mid 4th round pick and a 5th round pick?

How do you figure that they will cut him if they can't trade him?  So they can have another $17 mil to spend on outside FA's?

If they can't trade him before the draft, then they'll likely use him as a veteran mentor for Burrow and potentially try to move him before the trade deadline to a team who's QB goes down.

I've seen articles where NFL personnel people think he will fetch a 2nd.  It doesn't make a lot of sense to move him for less than an early 3rd because he'll likely fetch a 3rd round comp pick when he hits FA next year.  That's something that teams who trade for him will look at if they don't want to sign him long term.  They'll get a high comp pick back for him.  The trade is really for Andy Dalton plus a 2022 3rd round pick.

There are a lot of FA QB's this year, but the talk is that several of them will break the $30 mil a year barrier.  $17 mil is a bargain by comparison, particularly if you're eying next year's QB class.  

There are tons of guys in the NFL that are great athletes, but not great football players.  That's what Roquan Smith is until he proves differently.  It's actually very easy for a LB who's good at play recognition to make up for .1-.2 in the 40 on most snaps over a fast LB that's slow to read and react.  Smith is a reclamation project that has a high probability of not panning out.  Andy is a proven solid starter at the most important position in football.

[CJD]

(02-24-2020, 01:14 PM)Whatever Wrote: How do you figure that they will cut him if they can't trade him?  So they can have another $17 mil to spend on outside FA's?

If they can't trade him before the draft, then they'll likely use him as a veteran mentor for Burrow and potentially try to move him before the trade deadline to a team who's QB goes down.

I've seen articles where NFL personnel people think he will fetch a 2nd.  It doesn't make a lot of sense to move him for less than an early 3rd because he'll likely fetch a 3rd round comp pick when he hits FA next year.  That's something that teams who trade for him will look at if they don't want to sign him long term.  They'll get a high comp pick back for him.  The trade is really for Andy Dalton plus a 2022 3rd round pick.

There are a lot of FA QB's this year, but the talk is that several of them will break the $30 mil a year barrier.  $17 mil is a bargain by comparison, particularly if you're eying next year's QB class.  

There are tons of guys in the NFL that are great athletes, but not great football players.  That's what Roquan Smith is until he proves differently.  It's actually very easy for a LB who's good at play recognition to make up for .1-.2 in the 40 on most snaps over a fast LB that's slow to read and react.  Smith is a reclamation project that has a high probability of not panning out.  Andy is a proven solid starter at the most important position in football.

I hope you're right.

I too have seen the articles where they're projecting that we'd get a 2nd round pick for Dalton.

If that's the case, I'd be ecstatic. But I just can't imagine that happening. Maybe it's just my pessimism that has built up over the years.

The way I see it, there are 7 Free agent QBs that could start day 1 for any team that decides to sign them: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Ryan Tannehill, Dak Prescott, Jameis Winston, Philip Rivers and Teddy Bridgewater.

The teams that I think are in the market for a starting QB are:
New England Patriots
Dallas Cowboys
Chicago Bears
New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
LA Chargers
Tennessee Titans
Cincinnati Bengals

Then there are the teams that are looking for a Starting QB in the next two years, depending on if and when they plan on blowing it all up and starting from scratch:

Miami Dolphins
Indianapolis Colts
Carolina Panthers
Detroit Lions
Las Vegas Raiders

The second list would likely not be interested in Andy Dalton, since his contract is only 1 year remaining and he isn't really someone you start a rebuild around. So let's focus on the top list.

The Patriots, Cowboys and Saints are almost certainly going to attempt to sign their QBs back. It'll be interesting to see what happens with them, but I expect them all to do it (I'd be surprised if Tom Brady really did go to the Chargers, or any of those other rumors going on right now).

That leaves the Chargers, who already said they're moving on from Rivers, the Titans, Bucs and Bears.

The Titans are likely going to try to get Tannehill back. If they can't sign him long term, I'm expecting to see the franchise tag. Do I think that's a good idea? No, not necessarily. Especially if they don't re-sign Henry (I'm not sure if they will or not). But that means they're probably not in the Dalton fight either.

That leaves the Chargers, Bucs and Bears.

As I mentioned above, Winston, Rivers and Bridgewater are available. There have been reports that the Bears and Chargers are both pursuing Bridgewater, with the Bucs also loosely associated with him. I assume one of them will be able to secure his services.

If it's the Chargers, that's probably worst for us, because that means the Bears will have the choice between Winston and Rivers for a starting level QB off the free agent market.

Hopefully, the Bucs ultimately land Bridgewater, because that means the only option the Chargers have in free agency is Winston since they are already moving on from Rivers. It also means the Bears still have no starting QB and would be more likely to trade for Dalton.

And this is all without taking the draft into account. The Chargers could very well draft Herbert as their expected week 1 starter. Especially since the Chargers aren't really a Dalton away from competing in the AFC West.

That would basically leave 2 teams in need with 3 potential starting QBs on the free agent market. Basically, no matter how you arrange the chairs on the deck there are currently more starting QBs available than there are teams that need starting QBs. 

And when supply is higher than demand, cost goes down. Since Chicago knows that they're one of, maybe, two teams that would be willing to trade for Dalton before the draft, the likelihood that we get a 2nd round pick is very slim, in my opinion.

I think you're right that the Bengals best bet for getting anything of value out of Dalton is to keep him until the trade deadline and hope someone's starter gets injured. 

I just wish they had done that last trade deadline...

Also, the idea that Dalton would sign a contract large enough to fetch a 3rd round compensatory pick is pretty...out there. The free agents that are projected to fetch a 3rd round compensatory pick in the 2020 draft were around 13 to 22 million per year. The contract that Andy Dalton signs in free agency in 2021 is probably going to be in the 5 to 10 million range, the average salary of a backup QB in the NFL, which would fetch maybe a 4th or a 5th rounder. But we'd have to hang onto Dalton's entire 17.7 million dollar contract in order to get that pick.

If we cut Dalton or trade him now, we could potentially use that money in free agency. And I know the counter argument to that is "Hah! the idea that the Bengals would do anything in free agency is laughable." I get that. I really do. But this is the first year in quite a while where we don't have a QB on a 10+ million dollar contract and very few, if any, major free agents or extensions that are "must signs" like we have in the past with Atkins, Dunlap, Green etc. (Green is still there, but I'm not sure what we're gonna do with him.) And the big bosses have said they are prepared to be more active in free agency than in the past.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see how it unfolds.

[fortyyearfan]

(02-22-2020, 02:36 PM)Crowe Wrote: I went through and traded several players for picks as you'll see below and then I did something un-bengal like and traded 3 of the picks that I acquired for an extra 4th.

1,23,33,65,97,100(added in trade),108,129,139(traded),146(traded),147,154(traded),161,193

Franchise AJ Green and trade to NE for 1st round pick 23. I love Green and want him to retire a Bengal however being 32, missing all of last year and half of the 2 prior seasons is not a recipe for signing a guy to a big long term deal. See what happens this year and if he is healthy again and plays well then maybe try to bring him back in 2021 if he is interested. Getting a 1st round pick for him is good and what they should have done during the season.

Trade Andy to chicago for Roquan Smith and a 5th, pick 146. I floated around the idea of who I cold trade Andy to. Chicago doesn't have a 3rd but they make sense as a team looking to upgrade so I decided to trade for a player and a 5th and Smith was a guy I wanted us to draft a few years ago who is primed for a big bounce back with a change of scenery. Dalton would give Chicago a solid QB to help the overall team and even push Trubisky to play better.

Trade Cordy Glenn to denver for a 4th, 108. Gotta protect Drew Lock and Glenn is a solid bounce back candidate who's unhappy here

Trade Shawn Williams to 49ers for a 5th, pick 139. Solid but I believe he could be upgraded and another team could use his services more from a depth perspective compared to him being a starter here and I think Williams would thrive in SF due to how well their front 7 is.

Trade Dre Kirkpatrick to dallas for a 5th, pick 147. Solid but not spectacular and for a fifth a team like Dallas who could use some depth at the position, trading a 5th isn't bad.

Trade Gio to houston for a 5th, pick 154. Love Gio, but he is overpaid and underused. A team like Houston would love to add him to help out Deshaun Watson and give them some depth in the backfield.

Trade 5th round picks 154(29.8points), 146(33points), & 139(36.5points), which equals 99.3 points on the draft chart, to giants for pick 100 which is worth 100 points. I decided to trade up and secure another 4th due to the fact that I feel we would get a better value with the one pick compared to the 3 5th round picks. All in all we would still have 11 total picks.

Cut players
Bobby Hart saves $2,850,000 - He makes too much money and is constantly being abused by edge rushers. We have to get better on the line.
BW Webb saves $2,584,375 - He looked bad this season and can't seem to tackle. If we get better on the backend then we can potentially give our defense more of a break as we seemed to give up to many big plays this past season.
Randy Bullock saves $1,625,000 - Time to upgrade and hopefully have a little more consistency in the kicking game
Alex Erickson saves $1,700,000 - I like him, but there is no room for him with Brandon Wilson as a returner and Phillips, plus he is hardly used as a receiver.

Projected salary cap after trades and cuts $97,792,099 which could be more depending on if they up the salary cap before the start of the season.

Free agents
Joe Thuney G 6 year deal around 84 mil - 14mil per year - He gives us a big upgrade on he interior and him and Jonah Williams potentially give us an awesome left side.
Joe Schobert LB 5 year around 60 mil - 12mil per year - This guy just gets it done. He helps Pratt develop while giving us a much needed upgrade at the position while also weakening a division opponent.
Kendall Fuller CB 4 year 35 mil - 8.75mil per year - He''s young and just won a superbowl. He gives us more flexibility after moving on from Dre K. and gives us a solid 1-4 at CB.
Hunter Henry TE 4 year 48 mil - 12mil per year - Big time weapon for Mr. Burrow. He's young and an upgrade from Eifert and Uzo.
Nick Vigil LB 2 year 8 mil - 4mil per year - Widly inconsistent, but did play better once Pratt started catching on. He may get more from another team in that case I'd let him walk and look to grab a guy like Blake Martinez or Devondre Campbell or Nick Kwiatkoski
Dennard CB 3 year 24 mil - 8mil per year - He's solid, but cannot stay healthy. If he is offered more let him walk.
Brandon Wilson S 2 year 3.5 mil - 1.75mil per year - Good return guy and ST player. Can he do more in the defense
Fej S 3 year 5 mil - 1.65mil per year - Great ST player, but like Wilson can he be more than just that.
Billings DT 4 year 28 mil - 7mil per year - Has started to show potential, but is still not a great pass rusher. He may command a little more than 7 million per year which I wouldn't mind giving him as long as it isn't over 10/per year.

Taking into consideration that I divided the total amount by year and put a single year into the salary cap for this year would leave us after all of these signings with somewhere around $28,642,099 which gives us flexibility to sign draft class, extend players such as mixon and maybe even add in another free agent or 2 or add to the total amount for the guys we signed. We could also free up some more space by restructuring a few aging players.

Onto the Draft

1 Joe Burrow, QB LSU - Ohio boy who is calm and confident. Putting him behind a new and improved line and giving him a plethora of weapons would bode very well for this team.

23 From NE Laviska Shenault Jr WR Colorado - A legitimate number 1 who would pair great with Boyd, Henry, and Mixon to create a formidable offense.

33 Josh Jones, OT Houston - I think Fred Johnson will likely show well in the pre-season, but adding a guy like Jones for the future at RT is smart and gives us better depth.


65 Kyle Dugger, S Lenoir-Rhyne - Small school prospect who's an insane athlete. I think he pairs nicely on the backend with Bates to give us 2 playmaking safeties.

97 KJ Hill, WR Ohio State - Adding another guy like Hill takes this offense to another level. Burrow would have options left and right which is something that has been lacking the last couple of years.

100 From NY Giants Bradlee Anae, Edge Utah - Relentless motor who adds some good depth to our rotation and can play OLB in 3-4 or DE in 4-3.

108 From Denver Anthony McFarland, RB Maryland - Gio's replacement and adds some great speed behind Mixon. I like Rodney Anderson and he is a darkhorse for a great comeback candidate, but his injury history is long and Trayveon williams did nothing last year.

129 AJ Green, CB Oklahoma State - Depth at CB to mold for the future. Not afraid to play on either side and gives us a little peace of mind in the event that a guy goes down.

147 From Dallas Joe Bachie, LB Michigan State - ST player whom could rotate into the defense to offer a little depth.

160 Tyler Johnson, WR Minnesota - What another weapon for Burrow. Well hell yea. Johnson may go earlier, but the WR class this year is stacked so some guys are going to fall. If he is here which is where his projection has been then we absolutely grab him. He is a sure handed guy and allows us to run a 4 reciever set of Boyd, Chenault, Hill and Johnson. I don't like Ross and Tate to me is a solid number 5 so Johnson should get a chance to see snaps IMO.

192 Rodrigo Blankenship, K Georgia - Finally a replacement at K. Goodbye Bullock

I like your thinking,but they are going heavy on defense in rounds 2,3,and 4.I hope they can get Patrick Queen linebacker,he is the real deal and would help us big time,may have to trade back in round one to get him with Tennessee,but he is worth it and is a 1st round talent and will not be there at 33.

[Whatever]

(02-24-2020, 05:17 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I hope you're right.

I too have seen the articles where they're projecting that we'd get a 2nd round pick for Dalton.

If that's the case, I'd be ecstatic. But I just can't imagine that happening. Maybe it's just my pessimism that has built up over the years.

The way I see it, there are 7 Free agent QBs that could start day 1 for any team that decides to sign them: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Ryan Tannehill, Dak Prescott, Jameis Winston, Philip Rivers and Teddy Bridgewater.

The teams that I think are in the market for a starting QB are:
New England Patriots
Dallas Cowboys
Chicago Bears
New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
LA Chargers
Tennessee Titans
Cincinnati Bengals

Then there are the teams that are looking for a Starting QB in the next two years, depending on if and when they plan on blowing it all up and starting from scratch:

Miami Dolphins
Indianapolis Colts
Carolina Panthers
Detroit Lions
Las Vegas Raiders

The second list would likely not be interested in Andy Dalton, since his contract is only 1 year remaining and he isn't really someone you start a rebuild around. So let's focus on the top list.

The Patriots, Cowboys and Saints are almost certainly going to attempt to sign their QBs back. It'll be interesting to see what happens with them, but I expect them all to do it (I'd be surprised if Tom Brady really did go to the Chargers, or any of those other rumors going on right now).

That leaves the Chargers, who already said they're moving on from Rivers, the Titans, Bucs and Bears.

The Titans are likely going to try to get Tannehill back. If they can't sign him long term, I'm expecting to see the franchise tag. Do I think that's a good idea? No, not necessarily. Especially if they don't re-sign Henry (I'm not sure if they will or not). But that means they're probably not in the Dalton fight either.

That leaves the Chargers, Bucs and Bears.

As I mentioned above, Winston, Rivers and Bridgewater are available. There have been reports that the Bears and Chargers are both pursuing Bridgewater, with the Bucs also loosely associated with him. I assume one of them will be able to secure his services.

If it's the Chargers, that's probably worst for us, because that means the Bears will have the choice between Winston and Rivers for a starting level QB off the free agent market.

Hopefully, the Bucs ultimately land Bridgewater, because that means the only option the Chargers have in free agency is Winston since they are already moving on from Rivers. It also means the Bears still have no starting QB and would be more likely to trade for Dalton.

And this is all without taking the draft into account. The Chargers could very well draft Herbert as their expected week 1 starter. Especially since the Chargers aren't really a Dalton away from competing in the AFC West.

That would basically leave 2 teams in need with 3 potential starting QBs on the free agent market. Basically, no matter how you arrange the chairs on the deck there are currently more starting QBs available than there are teams that need starting QBs. 

And when supply is higher than demand, cost goes down. Since Chicago knows that they're one of, maybe, two teams that would be willing to trade for Dalton before the draft, the likelihood that we get a 2nd round pick is very slim, in my opinion.

I think you're right that the Bengals best bet for getting anything of value out of Dalton is to keep him until the trade deadline and hope someone's starter gets injured. 

I just wish they had done that last trade deadline...

Also, the idea that Dalton would sign a contract large enough to fetch a 3rd round compensatory pick is pretty...out there. The free agents that are projected to fetch a 3rd round compensatory pick in the 2020 draft were around 13 to 22 million per year. The contract that Andy Dalton signs in free agency in 2021 is probably going to be in the 5 to 10 million range, the average salary of a backup QB in the NFL, which would fetch maybe a 4th or a 5th rounder. But we'd have to hang onto Dalton's entire 17.7 million dollar contract in order to get that pick.

If we cut Dalton or trade him now, we could potentially use that money in free agency. And I know the counter argument to that is "Hah! the idea that the Bengals would do anything in free agency is laughable." I get that. I really do. But this is the first year in quite a while where we don't have a QB on a 10+ million dollar contract and very few, if any, major free agents or extensions that are "must signs" like we have in the past with Atkins, Dunlap, Green etc. (Green is still there, but I'm not sure what we're gonna do with him.) And the big bosses have said they are prepared to be more active in free agency than in the past.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see how it unfolds.

Bridgewater is not going to be a guy that gets handed a starting job based on a handful of games with a stacked supporting cast.  He'll get a chance to compete, but he's hardly played the past few years and he's got a serious injury history.  Winston likely isn't getting handed a job either due to fact that he's a turnover machine.

Teams that could also be looking would be Washington and Jacksonville.  There are rumblings that the skins may not be comfortable handing Haskins the starting job without competition.  Guys like Dalton, Bridgewater, and Winston would be good fits there.  Or, Rivera makes a move for Cam and creates an opportunity in Carolina.  There's also talk of the Jags moving on from Foles and Jay Gruden just took their OC job.  Indy could also push for a QB given that they have a ton of cap space. 

$5-10 mil for a QB is Jacoby Brissett/Chase Daniel/Ryan Fitzpatrick type money.  Nick Foles got $12 mil a year.  

We'll see how it all shakes out, but the thing to remember is MB isn't going to trade Dalton for less than he thinks he is worth.  I guarantee you he doesn't see him as being worth a Day 3 pick.  While the extra cap space would help, it's not like he's in a position where he's jammed up against the cap and has to dump salary.  He can easily hold onto him and try to get his asking price at the deadline or just collect his comp pick.

[NATI BENGALS]

There are a lot of solid free agent DTs. I don't think Billings gets that much money.

If we are going to spend big on OL I want it to be OT. I think MJ shows big improvement from year one to year two. Miller is serviceable. And I am still holding out hope for Price to get healthy and put it together. I am way more skeptical about a LT who has played 0 NFL snaps. Hart who is average. And then backup Ts we collected off the scrap heap.

Chicago is not moving Roquan. I wish we would be able to get that draft capital for our players. I don't think a lot of it is feasible. We should be able to get something for moving on from some of these vets. But I think you are a little optimistic.

I was initially all about getting Schobert. I am starting to think he will have a hard time living up to any massive contract he lands.

I will be pretty interested to see Anae's athletic testing numbers.

[Hammerstripes]

It's great if it's Madden, but who in the hell is going to make those trades?

I can't see any way the Bears would trade a rising stud for an aging QB. There's no way they make that trade.
There's no way ANYONE is giving up that kind of haul for Glenn.
If Dre is as garbage as some people say, there's no way Oakland is taking on that contract.

And with Burrow coming in, there's no way in hell I'm trading AJ. Period, end of story. You want your rookie QB to succeed, rolling out Boyd is great, but Ross, Tate and Ericson aren't going to take the pressure of him. We have the money, keep him.

There's also no way I'm getting rid of Gio. If you watched LSU's offense last year, they used their RBs a ton out of the backfield. I fully expect to see elements of that offense in Cincy. He'll be a valuable piece.

[Hammerstripes]

(02-24-2020, 06:35 PM)fortyyearfan Wrote: I like your thinking,but they are going heavy on defense in rounds 2,3,and 4.I hope they can get Patrick Queen linebacker,he is the real deal and would help us big time,may have to trade back in round one to get him with Tennessee,but he is worth it and is a 1st round talent and will not be there at 33.

I think you're going to be very surprised on draft day.  Just look at the team's history when they draft a QB.  They tend to surround him with talent on that side of the ball.  I just don't see a defensive draft this year.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-24-2020, 05:07 AM)milksheikh Wrote: Erickson just put up 500 yards receiving and had his best year receiving with us and you want to release him?? Bullock also had a solid year, 87% field goal percentage is not bad at all.

Bullock was 10th in the league in FG% but he only made one FG from 50+.
If there's someone who is about as accurate as Bullock but has a better leg, it'd make sense to upgrade.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-27-2020, 01:06 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: It's great if it's Madden, but who in the hell is going to make those trades?

I can't see any way the Bears would trade a rising stud for an aging QB.  There's no way they make that trade.
There's no way ANYONE is giving up that kind of haul for Glenn.
If Dre is as garbage as some people say, there's no way Oakland is taking on that contract.

And with Burrow coming in, there's no way in hell I'm trading AJ.  Period, end of story.  You want your rookie QB to succeed, rolling out Boyd is great, but Ross, Tate and Ericson aren't going to take the pressure of him.  We have the money, keep him.

There's also no way I'm getting rid of Gio.  If you watched LSU's offense last year, they used their RBs a ton out of the backfield.   I fully expect to see elements of that offense in Cincy.  He'll be a valuable piece.

If you had the option to use the $18 mill to either:
1) Keep AJ Green
or
2) Bring in one stud OL or LB in their prime

Which would you do?
I'd go for option 2