How Long Will The Depression/Recession Last?

[BFritz21]

Thanks to this virus, we're heading into a recession and maybe even a depression, so, my question is, how long will it last? How long will it take to rebound?

I've seen estimates that say the curve could flatten by May, but likely July or August. Will things start to get better in the economy? How long will it take to rebound?

Will it last until a vaccine or cure is developed? I've seen estimates for a vaccine put at least a year.

Just trying to get some clarification about how screwed we are.

[HarleyDog]

I honestly don’t have an opinion other than regardless what we may hear, nobody really knows? We have not experienced anything like this in our time to set a precedent or even faintly give someone an idea?

[kalibengal]

apparently there are a couple of FDA approved drugs that can work on this....

[BFritz21]

(03-22-2020, 07:25 PM)kalibengal Wrote: apparently there are a couple of FDA approved drugs that can work on this....

I heard that they're skipping the FDA since it's an emergency and going right into testing but it doesn't change the fact that it's so widespread and that people will keep infecting other people.

[HarleyDog]

(03-22-2020, 09:49 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: I heard that they're skipping the FDA since it's an emergency and going right into testing but it doesn't change the fact that it's so widespread and that people will keep infecting other people.

Hopefully their not skipping the FDA. The FDA can streamline in case of times like these but we still need that in place imo.

[reuben.ahmed]

I have also read the vaccine is 12-18 months out.

For now, stay inside at all times if possible. It may be a wave approach, 2 months of isolation, 1 month leaving your house, repeat because of spikes - until a vaccine.

[CKwi88]

I'd say that worst case scenario would be 18 months. That would be with a vaccine taking that long to develop as well as insufficient measures taken by governments and people around the world.

We were going to have a recession either way, for reasons best not discussed in this forum, but this virus certainly is going to bend the world over and head in dry.

[fredtoast]

Economists saw a recession coming in 2019 before this virus hit.  (google "inverted yield curve").  That is why the fed cut its lending rate three times last year.

I am afraid that people will ignore all of those previous warning signs and just claim the virus caused the recession.  Obviously the virus has damaged our ecnomy but there were other issues that needed to be addressed that will now be ignored.

[sandwedge]

(03-22-2020, 05:40 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Thanks to this virus, we're heading into a recession and maybe even a depression, so, my question is, how long will it last?  How long will it take to rebound?  

I've seen estimates that say the curve could flatten by May, but likely July or August.  Will things start to get better in the economy?  How long will it take to rebound?

Will it last until a vaccine or cure is developed?  I've seen estimates for a vaccine put at least a year.

Just trying to get some clarification about how screwed we are.

Not sure how anyone here can clarify anything you asked. The scientist who are working on this are even all over the place with timelines.

[sandwedge]

(03-23-2020, 01:19 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Economists saw a recession coming in 2019 before this virus hit.  (google "inverted yield curve").  That is why the fed cut its lending rate three times last year.

I am afraid that people will ignore all of those previous warning signs and just claim the virus caused the recession.  Obviously the virus has damaged our ecnomy but there were other issues that needed to be addressed that will now be ignored.

All to true. It has been building for sometime now. 

[samhain]

I think we're in for a 5 week non-working, non-buying pause. It will be damaging either way, but what steps are taken to protect American workers and businesses will play a big role. If you read the tea leaves, I think it's extremely likely that a national lockdown is coming soon.

Once there's a clear resolution, ie vaccine or herd immunity, people will be itching to get out and do the things that they haven't been able to do for the duration of the quarantine. It's just a matter of how jacked up their employment status/income will be when we get there.

If the government goes the intermittent pause route, stemming the spread for prolonged periods, then allowing business (sort of) to proceed as normal, I look for an extremely slow recovery. The fatigue will weigh on people, an the not knowing of when the next lockdown comes will take a toll on confidence.

[grampahol]

The only people alive in this nation to have lived through a depression are either elderly or from 3rd world countries. Most Americans have never really experienced dire poverty so this is going to be a huge shock to millions and millions more are going to lose their homes, jobs, etc. along with many losing family members. Even among the elderly to have experienced the great depression? They were all children at the time with limited memories of the real hardships their parents faced. They may have heard stories of the hardship, but they weren't directly responsible for much of anything during the depths of the depression.  In the years since the vast majority of our population have had it pretty damn good in comparison. I think we all know people with little to no self sufficientcy skills and the vast majority still live in urban areas with little to zero farming skills so if the food distribution system we currently have goes tits up we may see massive starvation on an unprecedented scale. 
We've already seen a huge disruption of the "just in time" distribution system in medical supplies alone so that system hasn't really touched the food delivery system yet. I'm pretty sure that's coming so those without enough land to grow crops and livestock may be screwed. Hell, we already have been trying to kick out the very people tasked with picking crops and pretending high school kids will step in except most live in urban areas with no skills and very little reason to want to go pick crops for the very wealthy anyway.  It ain't gonna be like the movie, The Grapes of Wrath.
I don't see much good coming from any of this and could pretty much predict a huge uptick in crime once the food supply chains begin to break down.. Luckily for some of us, very few of us we live in homes already paid for. I'm one of the lucky ones, but we don't have a lot of land to grow a lot of crops, just enough to feed ourselves and the thieves will want to take most of it before it's even matured and I'm in no mood to want to start shooting hungry people.. Hell, most people don't know how to skin a rabbit much less the family pets, but it may come down to it. I've long said I'll eat the neighbors dogs and cats before my kids starve..Now my kids are all grown up..Ever eaten sea gull? I have and it's nasty, but it'll keep you from starving if push comes to shove..

[fredtoast]

(04-05-2020, 09:36 AM)grampahol Wrote: Ever eaten sea gull? 

I like Bay Gulls.



With cream cheese.

[jfkbengals]

(03-23-2020, 01:19 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Economists saw a recession coming in 2019 before this virus hit.  (google "inverted yield curve").  That is why the fed cut its lending rate three times last year.

I am afraid that people will ignore all of those previous warning signs and just claim the virus caused the recession.  Obviously the virus has damaged our ecnomy but there were other issues that needed to be addressed that will now be ignored.

This ^^^^

It was coming with or without the virus, the question was just when.

The virus just forced a starting point for most industries at the same time instead of a natural course of one industry then impacting another.

With that said, I don't foresee anything improving until there is a verified treatment plan or vaccination available.

[grampahol]

I have to think that we're not facing the real possibility that those with the most money will get treatment or vaccines far sooner than those without which is the normal course of how things work in normal times,  but these ain't normal times.
Let's face it..how many of you would be willing to just take a back seat to some guy with more money and say, "By all means you're richer than me so you deserve to get in the front of the line"  Nope, I suspect most of us given the option would just as soon let the rich dude just rot and die than see our own families suffer for the wealthiest to remain richer.. 
This brings up a lot of selfish motives most people are familiar with, but when the rubber meets the road most of us are going to look out for our own families first and foremost and be willing to kick the rich guy to the curb..
I've already read more than a few commentors mentioning the notion of "Eat the rich".. While I'm not big on the idea of canabalism to say the least if it comes down to my family starving or some rich family starving I'm gonna opt for my family eating first.. lol

[JustWinBaby]

Don't quote me on this, but the typical recession lasts 6-9 months. We were long overdue, but I don't think that means anything with regard to how long or how bad this gets.

Because things got slammed shut, there is a lot of pent-up demand that should lead to a quick and healthy rebound. But beware the double dip! What happens in a recession is you trim the fat and then emerge healthier, and so the pessimist would point out we haven't been able to go through that process. "Pent-up demand" is also kind of an artificial concept when people don't have a paycheck coming in.

My thinking is we will mostly get back to work soon, but social distancing will continue. That's still going to affect a lot of businesses. In the most optimistic of scenarios, travel/hotel will still take well over a year to recover. Restaurants and bars operating at maybe 50% capacity, if at all? I don't believe you can have a recovery or healthy economy with one or more entire sectors massively struggling.

I certainly hope this isn't another depression. But I'm afraid it's likely to be worse and longer than the Great Recession. The economic fallout will probably kill more people than the virus - I really hope that's wrong, and because of positive developments and not a death spiral.

Think of this more like a "pause" and so there's nothing overtly good/bad building up, and there's no real change to underlying fundamentals. So when we do finally get back to business as usual, whatever that looks like, expect that a recession will still be on the horizon.

[grampahol]

This is not going to be a mere pause. It's going to last a good long time. Most of the big cities in developing countries and those well under developed are seeing the bodies pile up as well. It may seem like nothing, but even under developed nations contribute to the global supply chain in big ways. A huge amount of the produce we consume comes from these places as do many, many raw materials that we have been relying on for the past several decades . Despite the fact that a lot of these countries have something akin to universal health care it's overrun already in most places and it's just getting started. That's not even mentioning the countries (ours included) vastly under reporting infection and deaths that are going to get really overwhelmed there's just no reasonable way to assume the economy is going to just bounce back. We'll be EXTREMELY lucky if it does. Does the phrase mass starvation mean anything? 
I'm not much on praying, but I'm praying for just a very moderate economic recovery in my lifetime. 

[JustWinBaby]

(04-09-2020, 10:45 AM)grampahol Wrote: This is not going to be a mere pause. ...Does the phrase mass starvation mean anything?

I didn't say it was going to be a mere pause.  I said right now, the economy [combined with the stimulus], is basically on pause.  Most people have, or will be given the money, to get through the 2 months of lockdown. 

$6T is damn near 30% of GDP....so basically we printed enough money to innoculate the economy for about 3.5 months.  Kind of like getting an insurance payment - tornado hits your factory, you get your business interruption insurance, and your losses are wiped away putting you right back where you were before the tornado hit.  That's what I meant by the economy being on "pause", because the govt printed the money to make you whole from the damage caused by coronavirus.

And your latter point is why we can't remain locked-up forever.  It will kill many more people than the virus.  The main point of the lockdown is catch-up on the medical front, because quarantines are absolutely not sustainable.

But when we get back to work, we may have a temporary bump.  I'd say it's likely.  Not sure for how long, but eventually fundamentals change with several sectors struggling.  And then that's what drags us right back down into a recession.  Getting healthy again will depend on when a vaccine is widely available OR if therapeutics are found to knock this down to something more manageable on par with the flu.  Because that's the only scenario where Travel and F&B sectors can rebound....so 12-18 months, minus maybe 3 months of a temporary bounce.

[grampahol]

Believe what you like to believe about Uncle Sugar, but over the past 3 years it ain't been doing so hot. The stock market might be uhhh..ok I guess, but most people own no stocks and Wall street don't give a fart about you nor me.
We're about to start raising food on the property, rabbits for meat, vegetables, and probably start harvesting fish from the lake as well and not just sitting there all day long with a fishing pole, but setting up fish traps along the dock and other areas. 

Starve if you want. It's your choice, but I'm not playing along.