Bills Fan Here...

[McC]

(10-15-2015, 04:52 PM)thebandit27 Wrote: Yes, I imagine that they'll want to get Green and Eifert into the slot to see if they can get matched against Robey or a LB.  This is one game where I hope Rex assigns one guy (Gilmore) to cover Green and lets him play the slot if he has to in order to stay on him.

I did see some of the flexing out of OT stuff that happened in the last few weeks.  Let me say it this way: if the OTs running pass patterns is the key to the passing game, I'm not worried (the point being, obviously, that I don't think it is).

I think your biggest problem will be your coach's desperation.  All his crazy blitzes leaves the defense vulnerable to big plays.   (Right now, no QB is making more of them than Andy Dalton). 

I know you guys celebrated the hiring but he is a train wreck waiting to happen.  It'll take a couple years but it will happen.  He's a good DC who is one step higher than his ability.  He is a team wrecker.  

Oh, yes, and the last time the Bengals faced a Ryan defense, they hung 49 points on it.  Food for thought.

If you're gonna start a QB with a banged up knee, that is a recipe for disaster.   If a healthy Russell Wilson had trouble, how will Taylor do?  And if McCoy and Watkins are  less than totally healthy, well...

One thing I keep going back to is, if you lose to the Giants by two TD's, how you gonna beat the Bengals?

[The Dangler]

Good analysis and welcome to the board. This game scares me. I guess I'm always just waiting for the game where the Bengals implode. I'm hoping this year is different. If this game was at home, I'd take the Bengals in a heart beat. I know Buffalo has a couple losses at home this year but road games are always tough. The Bengals need to limit the big plays that they've been giving up each game. I think the key to this game is gonna be our D line getting pressure on whoever is taking snaps for you. Our LBs and Secondary has been a little suspect this year. So the less time they need to cover, the better.

Also, if the Bengals can get their running game going, it's going to be hard for Buffalo to keep up. I believe in the mantra "any given Sunday", but I feel like the Bengals just have too many weapons and are playing to well right now for Buffalo to beat. If you guys were at full strength it may be a different story.

Good luck this season, just not this Sunday!

[thebandit27]

(10-15-2015, 04:58 PM)reuben.ahmed Wrote: I had to stop reading there, sorry. Good luck.

Not sure why you'd stop reading.

It's worth noting that we didn't have any difficulty neutralizing Odell Beckham, and a lot of people think he's pretty good.

I don't deny that it's a tall order; I certainly wouldn't put it past this defense...this is the same unit that forced Aaron Rodgers into the worst game of his career last December, and held Rodgers-P. Manning-Brady without a TD pass in back-to-back-to-back weeks last year.

The Bengals are a very talented team and are playing great football right now. You can't tell me that they're more talented or have better playmakers on offense than the Denver team that had D. Thomas, J. Thomas, E. Sanders, etc. and didn't score through the air at home. My point is simply that if they can shut down that passing attack, and then shut down Aaron Rodgers' passing attack the following week, then it's not out of the question that they can do the same to Dalton et al.

But we shall see...

[thebandit27]

(10-15-2015, 05:01 PM)Benton Wrote: Welcome to the board.

It should be a good game, but the only concern I've got is your D stopping our run. I think our pass offense matches up pretty well with your pass defense, and Andy has been on a hot streak. If he has a bad game, though, I don't think we can fall back on the run with your Dline.

If Andy keeps playing like he's been playing, we'll be in a pretty good shootout with you guys.

A good game indeed.

I'm genuinely curious what part of Buffalo's pass defense you believe that Cincinnati matches up well against? Or, perhaps a better way to ask: if you're Hue Jackson, what part of Buffalo's defense are you targeting?

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(10-15-2015, 05:12 PM)thebandit27 Wrote: Not sure why you'd stop reading.

It's worth noting that we didn't have any difficulty neutralizing Odell Beckham, and a lot of people think he's pretty good.

I don't deny that it's a tall order; I certainly wouldn't put it past this defense...this is the same unit that forced Aaron Rodgers into the worst game of his career last December, and held Rodgers-P. Manning-Brady without a TD pass in back-to-back-to-back weeks last year.

The Bengals are a very talented team and are playing great football right now.  You can't tell me that they're more talented or have better playmakers on offense than the Denver team that had D. Thomas, J. Thomas, E. Sanders, etc. and didn't score through the air at home.  My point is simply that if they can shut down that passing attack, and then shut down Aaron Rodgers' passing attack the following week, then it's not out of the question that they can do the same to Dalton et al.

But we shall see...

.....well, all of that, and you said that would be your PLAN...not what WOULD happen.

Like TheDangler, I'm certainly not taking this game lightly at all.  We have historically had trouble with Buffalo, and it took us an extra frame to pick up the W there last time.

It should be an interesting game, the kind I don't like.....where I'm nervous the whole time .

Good luck to y'all, except for Sunday, and Marv Levy DID NOT invent the no huddle, that was our boy, Sammie Wyche!

[thebandit27]

(10-15-2015, 05:02 PM)McC Wrote: I think your biggest problem will be your coach's desperation.  All his crazy blitzes leaves the defense vulnerable to big plays.   (Right now, no QB is making more of them than Andy Dalton). 

I know you guys celebrated the hiring but he is a train wreck waiting to happen.  It'll take a couple years but it will happen.  He's a good DC who is one step higher than his ability.  He is a team wrecker.  

Oh, yes, and the last time the Bengals faced a Ryan defense, they hung 49 points on it.  Food for thought.

If you're gonna start a QB with a banged up knee, that is a recipe for disaster.   If a healthy Russell Wilson had trouble, how will Taylor do?  And if McCoy and Watkins are  less than totally healthy, well...

One thing I keep going back to is, if you lose to the Giants by two TD's, how you gonna beat the Bengals?

I wasn't huge on Rex, but I do like the cut of his jib. He's fun to have around.

He does need to learn to adapt mid-game though...his lack of adjustments against NE was maddening.

As to the last time Dalton faced Ryan, well, two years is a long time. I could say that the last time the Bengals came to Buffalo, it took overtime to beat a team with a 4th-string QB...but you know that holds no meaning, because they're different teams now. Know what I mean?

Rex's blitzes mainly open up opportunities for hitting gaps between coverage. He really hasn't given up much deep coverage when blitzing; it's been more short zone defenders.

Regarding losing to the Giants, I'll tell you how it happened: horrible, undisciplined penalties at the worst times. Seriously. 17 penalties. 17. Let that sink in for a minute. Two totally unnecessary penalties on OLmen wiped out late TDs. The Giants scored 3 TDs that game: one on a short field after an INT slipped through Clay's hands; another one on a drive with 2 personal foul penalties (one on a 3rd down stop), a defensive holding, and an illegal formation following a successful FG attempt that gave the Giants a 1st down; and the last was the Rashad Jennings TD where Bradham had him dead to rights in the backfield but couldn't bring him down (a rarity for him).

So how did they lose to the Giants? Stupid penalties and a few missed tackles. Things they can (and need to) clean up.

[XenoMorph]

(10-15-2015, 05:21 PM)thebandit27 Wrote: As to the last time Dalton faced Ryan, well, two years is a long time. I could say that the last time the Bengals came to Buffalo, it took overtime to beat a team with a 4th-string QB...but you know that holds no meaning, because they're different teams now. Know what I mean?

well we were still young then and had never won in buffalo before.. it was a learning experience lol

[Luvnit2]

(10-15-2015, 03:44 PM)thebandit27 Wrote: Hello, and good luck this Sunday.

I’ve started this thread to promote discussion (not necessarily trash talk, but do what you must) of this Sunday’s game, and to clear up a few misconceptions I read on your board.

First off, you’re all visiting the WRONG forum for real Bills discussion.  There’s no forum like The Stadium Wall over at twobillsdrive.com.  Here’s the link:

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/forum/1-the-stadium-wall/

Now, onto what you need to know about the Bills for this Sunday.

Offensively…

The skill position players are very good.  No joke.  Sammy Watkins is a stud; don’t let the middling numbers from his rookie year fool you.  He had over 900 yards and 6 TDs (quite comparable with AJ Green and Julio Jones as rookies) playing in Doug Marrone and Nate Hackett’s offense, with Kyle Orton at QB.  He needs to be doubled or have coverage rolled to him at all times.  Let me put it this way: the Colts have Vontae Davis, one of the top 5 CBs in the NFL, and they covered Sammy with Davis AND a safety over the top about 90% of the time.

Behind Sammy, Robert Woods and Percy Harvin have been consistently getting open against single coverage.  Marquise Goodwin is one of the 3 fastest players in football (behind only Chris Johnson and Dri Archer), and needs to be accounted for when he’s in the game (I’m sure you all remember his last-minute TD to tie the game against Cincinnati two years ago).  Chris Hogan is an underrated athlete who can make plays.

Charles Clay has been a great get as a FA, as he’s been a reliable safety valve.  There were plays last week where Tennessee was triple-covering Clay (you can do that with Sammy out of the lineup).

The RB position has been racked with injuries, and it looks like we’ll be down at least Karlos Williams this Sunday, which takes the “hammer” element out of the run game.  Shady seems more likely to play than I might have expected, which is a huge bonus, as I’d be worried about Boom Herron carrying the load.  Nevertheless, this team can run the ball pretty reliably, averaging 4.3 YPC, which ranks 8th in the NFL.

The offensive line is pretty solid from LT to C, but weakens as you move toward the right side.  Rookie RG John Miller has been a roller coaster, while second-year RT Seantrel Henderson has underwhelmed to say the least.  If I’m Paul Guenther, this is where I’m attacking Buffalo’s front.

QB-wise, Taylor has been exciting, though erratic at times.  He is an exceptional athlete, and has a very, very good deep ball.  If he’s healthy, he’s a real dual-threat.  Amongst starting QBs, he ranks 11th in YPA and 7th in passer rating and completion percentage.  If he can’t go, the drop off to EJ Manuel isn’t huge, but they are definitely different players.  EJ can’t kill you in the run game, but he’s almost Big Ben-like in his ability to extend the play.  He’s also got a terrific deep arm, though it seems his release isn’t quite as quick as Taylor’s.  He does, however, hit the seam throws better than Taylor does.

Defensively…

The defensive line needs no introduction.  They are all dominant in their own ways.  Jerry Hughes is a force on the edge; he absolutely owned Joe Thomas to the point where Cleveland was giving the best LT in the game help against him.  Dareus is a monster against both the run and the pass.  Kyle Williams looks like your typical lunch-pail guy, but watch him drop into coverage and chase down Marcus Mariota at full-stride, and you know he’s an athlete.  Mario Williams is an anchor against the run, and needs to be doubled in pass-protection.  In short, these four are the biggest reason this team is 7th in yards/carry allowed, 4th in yards/pass attempt allowed, and 6th in QB rating against.

I’ve seen some banter on this board that Buffalo isn’t as good on the back end…that’s false.  The boundary corners are as good a pairing as there is in the NFL.  Yes, I said that, and I mean it.  Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby rank 3rd and 2nd in the NFL in passes defended, and are both ranked in the top 5 in QB rating against when targeted by opposing QBs.  Keep in mind that this is a pairing that faced Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, and Eli Manning thus far.  Slot CB Nickell Robey is small, but very aggressive and an excellent blitzer.

The safety play has been inconsistent, as both Corey Graham and Aaron Williams have missed some time, as has primary backup Bacarri Rambo.  With Williams now on IR-DTR, and Rambo still recovering from a Week 4 injury, Duke Williams will get the call opposite Corey Graham on Sunday.  To any Bills’ fan, that’s scary.  I’d look for Rex to use Duke as a blitzer as often as he can, since that’s his best skill to this point.

The LB trio of Preston Brown, Nigel Bradham, and Manny Lawson are a mixed bag.  Brown is sensational against the run, but middling against the pass.  Manny Lawson is the exact opposite, though he played the run very well last week against Tennessee.  Bradham hits like a truck, but he tends to get very aggressive and over-pursue.

How I’d game plan against Cincinnati…

On defense, I’m looking to neutralize Green and Eifert first and foremost.  I’m probably sticking Gilmore on Green, because he’s bigger and a bit more physical than Darby, and I think Gilmore wants the assignment given that last time around he was trying to play against Green with a massive club over his hand and couldn’t tackle for anything.  I don’t expect Gilmore to shut him down altogether, but I think he’ll hold his own.  I’d then expect Darby to play the boundary against either Jones or Sanu—Bengals fans won’t like hearing this, but I feel really comfortable that Darby wins that match-up.  Robey draws slot duty against whichever of Jones or Sanu doesn’t line up on the boundary…that’s probably a 50/50 match-up, since both sides are fairly accomplished.

With regard to Eifert, I’d expect bracket zone coverage where Lawson draws the short zone (he’s got excellent speed for a LB—ran a sub-4.5 at the combine years ago).  I think this would’ve been Aaron Williams’ assignment had he been healthy since he’s their biggest safety, but I don’t think I want Corey Graham, who’s only 5’11”, matching against the much bigger Eifert 1-on-1.  More likely that Lawson draws the short zone and Graham plays over the top.

In the run game, I’m letting the DL plus Brown/Bradham patrol the box, which they’ve done quite well through 5 weeks.

For me, the biggest concern is handling Bernard out of the backfield, since you can’t exactly get a jam on a guy that lines up 12-15 yards from the coverage.  I’ll be interested to see how Rex game plans for that.

Offensively, I’m looking to exploit Cinci’s run defense, which is 29th in the NFL at 4.8 YPC allowed.  I’d look to compliment that with intermediate route combinations on the boundary and interior isolation concepts that get Clay matched up with either a LB or a safety, where he’ll win that matchup much of the time.

There’s your primer on your opponent this Sunday.  If you have questions or comments, feel free; I’m happy to answer.  As I said before, I don’t really talk trash, but do what you must…just don’t get upset if you say something patently incorrect and I’m forced to educate you (haha).

TY for your detailed analysis of the Bills.

I think the game will be close either way. I know Syric mentioned it, but Green plays a lot of slot as does Sanu, Burkhead, Eifert and Gio. Jones plays mostly outside, but is willing to go inside as well. The Bills front 4 is impressive. I know your center from Louisville (from Cincy area) Wood is very good, he needs to be as Geno is a beast. Dunlap has been playing very well and had 6 QB pressures last week with 1.5 sacks.

The scary thing about the Bengals for opponents is they have a lot of room for improvement and have yet to play a complete game (last 4) so my take is if the Bengals can take care of the ball and stop the OL holding calls our offense will have a very good day. On defense, I have no idea what to expect as they have been very inconsistent giving up yards, but are stingy giving up points.

Welcome to the forum

[thebandit27]

(10-15-2015, 05:17 PM)WychesWarrior Wrote: .....well, all of that, and you said that would be your PLAN...not what WOULD happen.

Like TheDangler, I'm certainly not taking this game lightly at all.  We have historically had trouble with Buffalo, and it took us an extra frame to pick up the W there last time.

It should be an interesting game, the kind I don't like.....where I'm nervous the whole time .

Good luck to y'all, except for Sunday, and Marv Levy DID NOT invent the no huddle, that was our boy, Sammie Wyche!

Actually, Marv had zero to do with the No-Huddle; it was Ted Marchibroda that presided over it in Buffalo. Though in reality, Jim Kelly and Keith McKeller were the driving forces for running it full-time.

[thebandit27]

(10-15-2015, 05:23 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: TY for your detailed analysis of the Bills.

I think the game will be close either way. I know Syric mentioned it, but Green plays a lot of slot as does Sanu, Burkhead, Eifert and Gio. Jones plays mostly outside, but is willing to go inside as well. The Bills front 4 is impressive. I know your center from Louisville (from Cincy area) Wood is very good, he needs to be as Geno is a beast. Dunlap has been playing very well and had 6 QB pressures last week with 1.5 sacks.

The scary thing about the Bengals for opponents is they have a lot of room for improvement and have yet to play a complete game (last 4) so my take is if the Bengals can take care of the ball and stop the OL holding calls our offense will have a very good day. On defense, I have no idea what to expect as they have been very inconsistent giving up yards, but are stingy giving up points.

Welcome to the forum

Thanks.

I'm a major advocate of matching players on players this week...I don't want to see Nickell Robey in man coverage on Green--WRs with size kill Robey.

I wouldn't worry about holding calls against your OL...there's a league-wide understanding that it's okay to slap the choke hold on Mario and Jerry coming around the edge In all seriousness, that happens at least 2-3 times a game without being called...eventually Rex goes nuts and they call the next one though.

[McC]

(10-15-2015, 05:14 PM)thebandit27 Wrote: A good game indeed.

I'm genuinely curious what part of Buffalo's pass defense you believe that Cincinnati matches up well against?  Or, perhaps a better way to ask: if you're Hue Jackson, what part of Buffalo's defense are you targeting?

The Bengals are well acquainted with Rex Ryan and his vaunted defenses.   Like I said, 49.

Is your defense better than Seattle's?

You've already lost two home games, for crying out loud and had to squeeze out a win against the Titans.

It's the NFL.  Anything can happen.   I'm not saying it won't be a tough game.  But the Bengals do not fear Bluster Boy, believe me.  And where will they attack Bluster Boy's defense?  Everywhere.

[XenoMorph]

(10-15-2015, 05:27 PM)thebandit27 Wrote: Thanks.

I'm a major advocate of matching players on players this week...I don't want to see Nickell Robey in man coverage on Green--WRs with size kill Robey.

I wouldn't worry about holding calls against your OL...there's a league-wide understanding that it's okay to slap the choke hold on Mario and Jerry coming around the edge In all seriousness, that happens at least 2-3 times a game without being called...eventually Rex goes nuts and they call the next one though.

we are also used to not getting holding calls for our DL men...

[thebandit27]

(10-15-2015, 05:27 PM)McC Wrote: The Bengals are well acquainted with Rex Ryan and his vaunted defenses. Like I said, 49.

Is your defense better than Seattle's?

You've already lost two home games, for crying out loud and had to squeeze out a win against the Titans.

It's the NFL. Anything can happen. I'm not saying it won't be a tough game. But the Bengals do not fear Bluster Boy, believe me. And where will they attack Bluster Boy's defense? Everywhere.

Thanks, but that didn't really answer my question.

I wasn't asking about the Jets' defense in 2013. I'm asking where you would attack the 2015 Bills' defense? An answer like "Everywhere" kind of says--right or wrong--that you don't really know much about the Bills' defense, or--in the very least--can't identify how you'd attack it.

I don't remember Rex ever having a defensive front anything close to what he has here. You're free to disagree with that, and I'm happy to hear your argument if you do.

Regarding Buffalo's D vs. Seattle's, they're nearly identical. Both average 5.2 yards/play allowed and allow 35% 3rd down conversions. Seattle is a bit better against the run, allowing 3.5 YPC to Buffalo's 3.8, whereas Buffalo holds the advantage in pass defense, allowing 6.3 YPA to Seattle's 7.3. Seattle has 10 sacks to Buffalo's 9, but Buffalo allows an opposing passer rating of 78.8 to Seattle's 97.2.

You're free to draw your own conclusion.

[thebandit27]

(10-15-2015, 05:31 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: we are also used to not getting holding calls for our DL men...

I would imagine so playing against Pittsburgh and Baltimore twice/year.

:)

[McC]

(10-15-2015, 05:34 PM)thebandit27 Wrote: Thanks, but that didn't really answer my question.

I wasn't asking about the Jets' defense in 2013.  I'm asking where you would attack the 2015 Bills' defense?  An answer like "Everywhere" kind of says--right or wrong--that you don't really know much about the Bills' defense, or--in the very least--can't identify how you'd attack it.

I don't remember Rex ever having a defensive front anything close to what he has here.  You're free to disagree with that, and I'm happy to hear your argument if you do.

Regarding Buffalo's D vs. Seattle's, they're nearly identical.  Both average 5.2 yards/play allowed and allow 35% 3rd down conversions.  Seattle is a bit better against the run, allowing 3.5 YPC to Buffalo's 3.8, whereas Buffalo holds the advantage in pass defense, allowing 6.3 YPA to Seattle's 7.3.  Seattle has 10 sacks to Buffalo's 9, but Buffalo allows an opposing passer rating of 78.8 to Seattle's 97.2.

You're free to draw your own conclusion.

I don't have to know how to attack it.  But Hue will.  He attacked Seattle everywhere.  He is able to do that because of all the weapons he has.  You can talk all you want about stopping this guy or that guy but you can't stop them all.  Seattle found that out.   Bluster Boy will too.

And in a year or two, after Mouth has ruined your team, he won't seem so fun to have around.  The Bills have been on the way up for about ten years now but they never seem to get to up.  I don't see that changing.  Not with that HC.

You want to win ugly--we can do that.  You want to win a shootout--we can do that.  You don't even seem to have home field advantage.

[BonnieBengal]

(10-15-2015, 03:44 PM)thebandit27 Wrote: Hello, and good luck this Sunday.

I’ve started this thread to promote discussion (not necessarily trash talk, but do what you must) of this Sunday’s game, and to clear up a few misconceptions I read on your board.

First off, you’re all visiting the WRONG forum for real Bills discussion.  There’s no forum like The Stadium Wall over at twobillsdrive.com.  Here’s the link:

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/forum/1-the-stadium-wall/

Now, onto what you need to know about the Bills for this Sunday.

Offensively…

The skill position players are very good.  No joke.  Sammy Watkins is a stud; don’t let the middling numbers from his rookie year fool you.  He had over 900 yards and 6 TDs (quite comparable with AJ Green and Julio Jones as rookies) playing in Doug Marrone and Nate Hackett’s offense, with Kyle Orton at QB.  He needs to be doubled or have coverage rolled to him at all times.  Let me put it this way: the Colts have Vontae Davis, one of the top 5 CBs in the NFL, and they covered Sammy with Davis AND a safety over the top about 90% of the time.

Behind Sammy, Robert Woods and Percy Harvin have been consistently getting open against single coverage.  Marquise Goodwin is one of the 3 fastest players in football (behind only Chris Johnson and Dri Archer), and needs to be accounted for when he’s in the game (I’m sure you all remember his last-minute TD to tie the game against Cincinnati two years ago).  Chris Hogan is an underrated athlete who can make plays.

Charles Clay has been a great get as a FA, as he’s been a reliable safety valve.  There were plays last week where Tennessee was triple-covering Clay (you can do that with Sammy out of the lineup).

The RB position has been racked with injuries, and it looks like we’ll be down at least Karlos Williams this Sunday, which takes the “hammer” element out of the run game.  Shady seems more likely to play than I might have expected, which is a huge bonus, as I’d be worried about Boom Herron carrying the load.  Nevertheless, this team can run the ball pretty reliably, averaging 4.3 YPC, which ranks 8th in the NFL.

The offensive line is pretty solid from LT to C, but weakens as you move toward the right side.  Rookie RG John Miller has been a roller coaster, while second-year RT Seantrel Henderson has underwhelmed to say the least.  If I’m Paul Guenther, this is where I’m attacking Buffalo’s front.

QB-wise, Taylor has been exciting, though erratic at times.  He is an exceptional athlete, and has a very, very good deep ball.  If he’s healthy, he’s a real dual-threat.  Amongst starting QBs, he ranks 11th in YPA and 7th in passer rating and completion percentage.  If he can’t go, the drop off to EJ Manuel isn’t huge, but they are definitely different players.  EJ can’t kill you in the run game, but he’s almost Big Ben-like in his ability to extend the play.  He’s also got a terrific deep arm, though it seems his release isn’t quite as quick as Taylor’s.  He does, however, hit the seam throws better than Taylor does.

Defensively…

The defensive line needs no introduction.  They are all dominant in their own ways.  Jerry Hughes is a force on the edge; he absolutely owned Joe Thomas to the point where Cleveland was giving the best LT in the game help against him.  Dareus is a monster against both the run and the pass.  Kyle Williams looks like your typical lunch-pail guy, but watch him drop into coverage and chase down Marcus Mariota at full-stride, and you know he’s an athlete.  Mario Williams is an anchor against the run, and needs to be doubled in pass-protection.  In short, these four are the biggest reason this team is 7th in yards/carry allowed, 4th in yards/pass attempt allowed, and 6th in QB rating against.

I’ve seen some banter on this board that Buffalo isn’t as good on the back end…that’s false.  The boundary corners are as good a pairing as there is in the NFL.  Yes, I said that, and I mean it.  Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby rank 3rd and 2nd in the NFL in passes defended, and are both ranked in the top 5 in QB rating against when targeted by opposing QBs.  Keep in mind that this is a pairing that faced Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, and Eli Manning thus far.  Slot CB Nickell Robey is small, but very aggressive and an excellent blitzer.

The safety play has been inconsistent, as both Corey Graham and Aaron Williams have missed some time, as has primary backup Bacarri Rambo.  With Williams now on IR-DTR, and Rambo still recovering from a Week 4 injury, Duke Williams will get the call opposite Corey Graham on Sunday.  To any Bills’ fan, that’s scary.  I’d look for Rex to use Duke as a blitzer as often as he can, since that’s his best skill to this point.

The LB trio of Preston Brown, Nigel Bradham, and Manny Lawson are a mixed bag.  Brown is sensational against the run, but middling against the pass.  Manny Lawson is the exact opposite, though he played the run very well last week against Tennessee.  Bradham hits like a truck, but he tends to get very aggressive and over-pursue.

How I’d game plan against Cincinnati…

On defense, I’m looking to neutralize Green and Eifert first and foremost.  I’m probably sticking Gilmore on Green, because he’s bigger and a bit more physical than Darby, and I think Gilmore wants the assignment given that last time around he was trying to play against Green with a massive club over his hand and couldn’t tackle for anything.  I don’t expect Gilmore to shut him down altogether, but I think he’ll hold his own.  I’d then expect Darby to play the boundary against either Jones or Sanu—Bengals fans won’t like hearing this, but I feel really comfortable that Darby wins that match-up.  Robey draws slot duty against whichever of Jones or Sanu doesn’t line up on the boundary…that’s probably a 50/50 match-up, since both sides are fairly accomplished.

With regard to Eifert, I’d expect bracket zone coverage where Lawson draws the short zone (he’s got excellent speed for a LB—ran a sub-4.5 at the combine years ago).  I think this would’ve been Aaron Williams’ assignment had he been healthy since he’s their biggest safety, but I don’t think I want Corey Graham, who’s only 5’11”, matching against the much bigger Eifert 1-on-1.  More likely that Lawson draws the short zone and Graham plays over the top.

In the run game, I’m letting the DL plus Brown/Bradham patrol the box, which they’ve done quite well through 5 weeks.

For me, the biggest concern is handling Bernard out of the backfield, since you can’t exactly get a jam on a guy that lines up 12-15 yards from the coverage.  I’ll be interested to see how Rex game plans for that.

Offensively, I’m looking to exploit Cinci’s run defense, which is 29th in the NFL at 4.8 YPC allowed.  I’d look to compliment that with intermediate route combinations on the boundary and interior isolation concepts that get Clay matched up with either a LB or a safety, where he’ll win that matchup much of the time.

There’s your primer on your opponent this Sunday.  If you have questions or comments, feel free; I’m happy to answer.  As I said before, I don’t really talk trash, but do what you must…just don’t get upset if you say something patently incorrect and I’m forced to educate you (haha).

The Bills are up and coming, no doubt.  Rex Ryan is a heck of a coach.  Watkins is a stud, no doubt.  

Because I'm curious, I've never understood what happened to Percy Harvin and why he's mostly underwhelming these days.  Got any insight?

I don't think our run d is as bad as the numbers say, though the stats I'm looking at say we're 21st, not 29th.  Jamal Charles of the Chiefs hit us pretty well as did Woodhead from the Chargers.  We still won those games though.   I think it's pretty early on and those numbers will swing a lot.  

I didn't notice anything about our D line in your novel above.    We've had 15 total sacks already, that's 3 per game.  Atkins has to be double teamed and Dunlap has 5 sacks by himself already.  

I don't think you have the answer for Green and I do expect him to have a big day Sunday.  I'm sure trying to cover both Green and Eifert is a nightmare.  Then you also have to worry about Jones, Sanu, and Bernard.  In our rushing game, I think Jeremy Hill's coming back with a vengeance this week.  He's a talented kid who is having a bit of a sophomore slump but will find his way. 

[thebandit27]

(10-15-2015, 05:08 PM)The Dangler Wrote: Good analysis and welcome to the board. This game scares me. I guess I'm always just waiting for the game where the Bengals implode. I'm hoping this year is different. If this game was at home, I'd take the Bengals in a heart beat. I know Buffalo has a couple losses at home this year but road games are always tough. The Bengals need to limit the big plays that they've been giving up each game. I think the key to this game is gonna be our D line getting pressure on whoever is taking snaps for you. Our LBs and Secondary has been a little suspect this year. So the less time they need to cover, the better.

Also, if the Bengals can get their running game going, it's going to be hard for Buffalo to keep up. I believe in the mantra "any given Sunday", but I feel like the Bengals just have too many weapons and are playing to well right now for Buffalo to beat. If you guys were at full strength it may be a different story.

Good luck this season, just not this Sunday!

Thanks!

I don't really see an "implosion" coming for Cinci...they just don't strike me as mentally weak enough for that.

Pressure is definitely the way to stop Buffalo's passing attack. I'd be focused on overloading the right side of the OL...I don't know how much Guenther likes to mix it up, but I'd be finding ways to get Geno Atkins singled up on John Miller, and align Dunlop as a 9-technique outside of Seantrel to take advantage.

[Benton]

(10-15-2015, 05:14 PM)thebandit27 Wrote: A good game indeed.

I'm genuinely curious what part of Buffalo's pass defense you believe that Cincinnati matches up well against?  Or, perhaps a better way to ask: if you're Hue Jackson, what part of Buffalo's defense are you targeting?

I haven't watched a lot of this year's Bills, so I could be off on some of this. Feel free to criticize anything I may be assuming too much on. But...

Ryan likes to blitz. That's ok when you've got players in the back that can shut down the occasional big play that blitzing gives up. But you don't have anyone that can stop Green 1-on-1. Your safeties and nickel corners don't pair up well with our guys on mid to long plays. So that means Rex is either going to blitz anyway (and risk giving up another 40ish point game if it goes the same way as last time) or he's going back off and cover against the pass, which lets up do what Marvin likes to do —  chew up yards and eat up clock.

[thebandit27]

(10-15-2015, 05:45 PM)McC Wrote: I don't have to know how to attack it.  But Hue will.  He attacked Seattle everywhere.  He is able to do that because of all the weapons he has.  You can talk all you want about stopping this guy or that guy but you can't stop them all.  Seattle found that out.   Bluster Boy will too.

And in a year or two, after Mouth has ruined your team, he won't seem so fun to have around.  The Bills have been on the way up for about ten years now but they never seem to get to up.  I don't see that changing.  Not with that HC.

You want to win ugly--we can do that.  You want to win a shootout--we can do that.  You don't even seem to have home field advantage.

I see...so in your opinion, Buffalo shouldn't bother showing up? Well, suffice to say: I disagree.

As to home field advantage, yes, we have one. For certain. It's quite the hostile environment.

Again though, we shall see.

[thebandit27]

(10-15-2015, 05:45 PM)BonnieBengal Wrote: The Bills are up and coming, no doubt.  Rex Ryan is a heck of a coach.  Watkins is a stud, no doubt.  

Because I'm curious, I've never understood what happened to Percy Harvin and why he's mostly underwhelming these days.  Got any insight?

I don't think our run d is as bad as the numbers say, though the stats I'm looking at say we're 21st, not 29th.  Jamal Charles of the Chiefs hit us pretty well as did Woodhead from the Chargers.  We still won those games though.   I think it's pretty early on and those numbers will swing a lot.  

I didn't notice anything about our D line in your novel above.    We've had 15 total sacks already, that's 3 per game.  Atkins has to be double teamed and Dunlap has 5 sacks by himself already.  

I don't think you have the answer for Green and I do expect him to have a big day Sunday.  I'm sure trying to cover both Green and Eifert is a nightmare.  Then you also have to worry about Jones, Sanu, and Bernard.  In our rushing game, I think Jeremy Hill's coming back with a vengeance this week.  He's a talented kid who is having a bit of a sophomore slump but will find his way. 

Harvin is actually Tyrod's favorite WR (they know each other from HS ball). His big dropoff the past 2 seasons was his own doing; piss poor attitude, really.

I'm gauging run D on yards/carry; that's probably why the rankings differ (I just find it to be a better indicator than yards/game, since rushing totals can be inflated/deflated depending upon game situations).

I hate facing teams with good D-lines, and Cinci has one for sure. I'd probably focus my double-team on Atkins and hope that Richie (who's actually having a nice rebound season) can handle Peko 1-on-1. I don't so much worry about Glenn at LT. The real worrisome guy is Henderson having to handle either Dunlop or Johnson on the edge. If Shady is healthy, he can chip with the best of 'em, so that would be a big help. Otherwise I think we're compromising a passing target to help out, which I don't want to do.