Tyler Boyd, record chaser?

[*SHRacerX*]

I know AJ Green has been quoted as saying he wants to break every receiving record on the Bengals, but if he isn't re-signed after this season it isn't going to happen. He could, however, break the TD record this year.


The All-Time Bengal's Receiving Records are as follows:

751 receptions 10,783 yards 66 TDs



Right now, AJ Green has:

602 receptions 8,909 yards 63 TDs.



Tyler Boyd has come on as of late, after an injury stalled his rookie campaign and Marvin's Dog House stalled Year 2. His numbers after four years are as follows:

242 receptions 2,902 yards 15 TDs


Boyd is currently signed for the next four years, and if he duplicates the year he put up last year of 90 receptions and 1,000 yards, and say 5 TDs, his numbers at the end of his contract would look like this:

602 receptions 6,902 yards 35 TDs

While Boyd isn't on track to beat the TD record, he would be 29 at the end of his next contract and as a saavy slot WR that won't likely have to share slot snaps with Green after this year you could see a scenario where an additional two years would put him at 31, which is AJ Green's age now.

It isn't likely Boyd ends up being the all-time leader in receptions or yards, but I think he will likely become Burrow's favorite target. He could really break out this year even beyond his 90 rec/ 1000 yard season of last year. Those numbers are pretty impressive given what was around him.

I am not saying Boyd is a low-value stock, but if he were a stock, I would be buying right now because I could see where everyone is so keyed up on Green, Ross, and Higgins, Boyd simply destroys them in the middle of the field.

[fredtoast]

(05-20-2020, 04:42 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: after an injury stalled his rookie campaign and Marvin's Dog House stalled Year 2.  

Tyler Boyd was our #3 WR every game of his rookie season and had 54 receptions.


Year two he missed 6 games with injury. 

[fredtoast]

With most rookie QBs the TE is their best friend on third down. With the Bengals Boyd will fill that role (Much like TJ used to).

Tyler has been particularly effective throughout career on third downs. He enters 2020 having converted first downs on 63 of his 76 career third-down catches, good for an 82.9 percent rate that ranks sixth in the NFL over that span (minimum 40 catches)

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

The only starting caliber-WR on a losing team for the last season and a half means he was force fed stats above his ability.

I like Tyler Boyd, and he's a good #2, but there's no way he's a 1k receiver on a good team with an actual #1 around.

Boyd Career Stats
Leading/Tied: 85/926/4
Trailing: 157/1,940/11

Green Career Stats
Leading/Tied: 348/4,976/33
Trailing: 249/3,774/30


- - - - - -
But I guess you're technically right? If Boyd matches his career high season where he was the #1 WR for each of the next 6 years, and AJ gets 0 yards this year (or never plays for the Bengals again) he will be right there with AJ in career yardage.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(05-20-2020, 05:01 PM)fredtoast Wrote: With most rookie QBs the TE is their best friend on third down.  With the Bengals Boyd will fill that role (Much like TJ used to).  

Tyler has been particularly effective throughout career on third downs. He enters 2020 having converted first downs on 63 of his 76 career third-down catches, good for an 82.9 percent rate that ranks sixth in the NFL over that span (minimum 40 catches)

Sure, if you only count passes he already caught, but what about the QB's actual completion % when throwing to him on 3rd down?

In TJ's Pro Bowl 2007 season, he caught 72.7% of the 3rd down passes thrown at him after 66.7% in 2006.

In 2019, Tyler Boyd caught 55.0% of the 3rd down passes thrown at him. In 2018, that number was 58.5%, and in 2017 it was 57.1%....

The only year Boyd has been good on 3rd down is 2016 (71.0%).

There's no point in converting frequently if you can't complete frequently as well. "My car runs really well, so long as I can win the cointoss to get it started."

[fredtoast]

(05-20-2020, 05:17 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Boyd Career Stats
Leading/Tied: 85/926/4
Trailing: 157/1,940/11

Green Career Stats
Leading/Tied: 348/4,976/33
Trailing: 249/3,774/30

These stats are meaningless.  All they show is that Green played more games when the Bengals were a winning team.

How does the exact same WR suddenly become worse just because the team h plays on loses instead of wins?  That makes no sense.

Show us the nubers JUST for the games where both played.  That is the only way to compare them.

[fredtoast]

(05-20-2020, 05:26 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Sure, if you only count passes he already caught, but what about the QB's actual completion % when throwing to him on 3rd down?

It is easy to make catches on third down short of first down yardage.  Defenses will give those up all day long.

[fredtoast]

(05-20-2020, 05:17 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: there's no way he's a 1k receiver on a good team with an actual #1 around. 

Bengals were 5-3 the first 8 games of 2018 and Green was fully healthy.

Boyd had 49 receptions (Green had 45) for 620 yards and 5 tds.  That is a pace for 1240 yards and 10 tds for a 10-6 team.



Next.

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-20-2020, 04:58 PM)fredtoast Wrote:
Tyler Boyd was our #3 WR every game of his rookie season and had 54 receptions.


Year two he missed 6 games with injury. 

My apologies, you are right.  I thought I remembered an injury knocking him out of the pitt game.  Ironically, the stats say he started just two games but played in 16.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-20-2020, 05:17 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: The only starting caliber-WR on a losing team for the last season and a half means he was force fed stats above his ability.

I like Tyler Boyd, and he's a good #2, but there's no way he's a 1k receiver on a good team with an actual #1 around.

Boyd Career Stats
Leading/Tied: 85/926/4
Trailing: 157/1,940/11

Green Career Stats
Leading/Tied: 348/4,976/33
Trailing: 249/3,774/30


- - - - - -
But I guess you're technically right? If Boyd matches his career high season where he was the #1 WR for each of the next 6 years, and AJ gets 0 yards this year (or never plays for the Bengals again) he will be right there with AJ in career yardage.  

Wrong.  Boyd wasn't just force fed because he was the only receiver, he was the slot WR, and that position is going to get a lot of targets in an 11 personnel, which is sort of their base offense.  And judging by the way Burrow and his slot WR at LSU (Jefferson) were connected, I could see him get even more targets next year.  Burrow sees and attacks the middle of the field so well.  Having Green and Ross outside will only open up the middle of the field more.  And Burrow has four years in the league, Green has 9.  If you have just 360 receptions and 6000 yards in the next five years, Boyd will essentially be tied with Green's numbers after 9 years.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-20-2020, 06:26 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Bengals were 5-3 the first 8 games of 2018 and Green was fully healthy.

Boyd had 49 receptions (Green had 45) for 620 yards and 5 tds.  That is a pace for 1240 yards and 10 tds for a 10-6 team.



Next.

True.  And the point I am trying to make with Boyd is how he has seemingly started to really find his stride....doing so on a team depleted of talent and offensive line play.  Now, with an improved line, QB, and weapons around him, Boyd could be eating very well looking forward.  Burrow loves to attack the middle with his slot WR.  Look at the insane numbers Jefferson put up at LSU when he moved to the slot.  

[*bfine32*]

(05-20-2020, 04:58 PM)fredtoast Wrote:
Tyler Boyd was our #3 WR every game of his rookie season and had 54 receptions.


Year two he missed 6 games with injury. 

(05-21-2020, 10:10 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: My apologies, you are right.  I thought I remembered an injury knocking him out of the pitt game.  Ironically, the stats say he started just two games but played in 16.  

I thought he missed some time because he had dude driving dirty in his car. 

[Wes Mantooth]

I really don't understand the point of this thread.

OP even says it is "unlikley he becomes the leader in yards or receptions". And he's definitely not breaking the TD record, that would be the least likely of 3.

So exactly what conversation are we having here? That Tyler Boyd could break records, or that Tyler Boyd is a damn good #2 receiver.

Fwiw, I love Boyd. I've stated this numerous times, and somewhere even have a thread about what a great deal he is, and how he's undervalued. But again, I'm not sure what conversation we're having here.

Do I think he breaks records? Very, very, very doubtful. The room is getting more and more crowded, and to plug in the next 4 years at last years pace is asking a ton. Not many receivers can stay healthy and miss zero time over 5 straight seasons.

If you were to plug him in the next 4 years at last year's numbers it would result in the following...

-6 straight 1,000 yard seasons. This is incredibly rare. Even a younger AJ Green fell short of this. Very few WR's can accomplish this.

-90 out of 90 Games Played. Almost impossible, and exactly why the above is so rare. Guys will eventually get hurt and miss time at some point.

I think he has a really, really nice career here. With his 2nd contract being done, and early production in his career he should demolish TJ, Sanu and Jones in production as the "#2". Barring a catostophic injury I'm sure he'll climb up the team records. But is he touching Chad's 751 receptions and 10,781 yards? No way. You're talking 8 more 1,000 yard seasons to do that. 7 more seasons of 75 catches to do that.

Tyler Boyd is a stud. But a record breaker? Let's let him get a 3rd 1,000 yard season before we start penciling him in for 4,200 yards over the next 4 years.

[fredtoast]

(05-21-2020, 10:28 AM)bfine32 Wrote: I thought he missed some time because he had dude driving dirty in his car. 

In addition to the games he missed with injury his second season he was also "inactive" on two game days.  I believe that had to do with off-field issues.

[Wes Mantooth]

Just for perspective, and to set the pace, here are Chad's, AJ's, and Tyler's numbers after 4 seasons:

Chad Johnson
4,124 Yards, 282 Receptions, 25 TD's

AJ Green
4,874 Yards, 329 Receptions, 35 TD's

Tyler Boyd
2,902 Yards, 242 Receptions, 15 TD's
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So here's already well behind the eight ball in comparison to the two guys at the top.

Now AJ Green obviously started missing some time after year 5, so with a long career, and very good health, Boyd could start making up some ground as his career is progressing.  But keep in mind, that's a LOT of ground to make up. And AJ still managed to put up 3,339 (1,113 avg) in year 5-7.

And Chad, God love him, good luck with that one, Tyler.  Not only is already behind 40 balls, and about 1,200 yards, here's what staring at him from Chad in years 5-7...

Year 5 - 1,432 Yards, 97 Receptions, 9 TD's
Year 6 - 1,369 Yards, 87 Receptions, 7 TD's
Year 7 - 1,440 Yards, 94 Receptions, 8 TD's.

This early in Boyd's career, already behind a pretty significant amount, and then facing this ungodly amount of production, the reality is once he gets to year 8 he's probably looking at an insurmountable defecit.  Not too mention that Chad threw in a 1,047 yard season, and another 831 yard season late in his career further padding his stats.

I don't think people realize just how good Chad was, and how hard it is for someone to break these records.  I got absolutely shredded on the old board for pointing this out when I tried to explain that it wasn't a given AJ Green would surpass Chad's numbers, after seeing his first two years.

For Boyd to even sniff these guys he's going to need to say relatively healthy and he's probably going to have to be here a minimum of 12 years. Think about that.  Then think about how any discussion of records is far too premature in year 4.

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-21-2020, 10:28 AM)bfine32 Wrote: I thought he missed some time because he had dude driving dirty in his car. 

That was the year he was in Marv's Dog House.  Formerly occupied by DeDe Dorsey, PJ Dawson, and most recently, John Ross. 

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-21-2020, 12:45 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Just for perspective, and to set the pace, here are Chad's, AJ's, and Tyler's numbers after 4 seasons:

Chad Johnson
4,124 Yards, 282 Receptions, 25 TD's

AJ Green
4,874 Yards, 329 Receptions, 35 TD's

Tyler Boyd
2,902 Yards, 242 Receptions, 15 TD's
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So here's already well behind the eight ball in comparison to the two guys at the top.

Now AJ Green obviously started missing some time after year 5, so with a long career, and very good health, Boyd could start making up some ground as his career is progressing.  But keep in mind, that's a LOT of ground to make up. And AJ still managed to put up 3,339 (1,113 avg) in year 5-7.

And Chad, God love him, good luck with that one, Tyler.  Not only is already behind 40 balls, and about 1,200 yards, here's what staring at him from Chad in years 5-7...

Year 5 - 1,432 Yards, 97 Receptions, 9 TD's
Year 6 - 1,369 Yards, 87 Receptions, 7 TD's
Year 7 - 1,440 Yards, 94 Receptions, 8 TD's.

This early in Boyd's career, already behind a pretty significant amount, and then facing this ungodly amount of production, the reality is once he gets to year 8 he's probably looking at an insurmountable defecit.  Not too mention that Chad threw in a 1,047 yard season, and another 831 yard season late in his career further padding his stats.

I don't think people realize just how good Chad was, and how hard it is for someone to break these records.  I got absolutely shredded on the old board for pointing this out when I tried to explain that it wasn't a given AJ Green would surpass Chad's numbers, after seeing his first two years.

For Boyd to even sniff these guys he's going to need to say relatively healthy and he's probably going to have to be here a minimum of 12 years. Think about that.  Then think about how any discussion of records is far too premature in year 4.

Chad has been, and always will be, one of my absolute favorite Bengals.   I think he is HOF-worthy.  The guy was at the pinnacle for a period of 4-5 years and could not be stopped.  This thread is not meant as a slight to Chad at all...or AJ.  I am trying to illustrate that Boyd's role could expand in the current offense and I see how many times Burrow finds his slot guy on a crosser in the middle. 

Look at the receptions TJ had when Chad was still on top.  He had a ton of receptions.  Chad drew coverage and opened things for TJ.  Boyd can be the same thing.  TJ wasn't TJ without Chad, and Boyd would not be the same without AJ or Ross outside, but my point is with both of those guys (plus Higgins and Tate) he could be the big beneficiary.  For many years to come.  I just have a feeling he is going to be Burrow's guy.  

[J24]

If Boyd stays healthy then it wouldn't shock me to see him break the reception record here. I don't think it is out of the Question that he could be a consistent 100+ reception guy for the next 5 years. The only thing I would say that would work against him is would the Bengals be willing to extend him for a third contract?

[fredtoast]

(05-21-2020, 02:15 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: That was the year he was in Marv's Dog House.  Formerly occupied by DeDe Dorsey, PJ Dawson, and most recently, John Ross. 

Not sure what you mean by "dog house".

Marvin benching Tyler for a couple of games was just a coach holding a player accountable for off field indiscretions.

Dorsey and Dawson were just not good players.  I guess they were in the "dog house" of every single coach in the entire league.

Ross was just not ready to play.  Again, Marvin holding a player accountable for not knowing the playbook and trying to hide injuries.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(05-21-2020, 10:16 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Wrong.  Boyd wasn't just force fed because he was the only receiver, he was the slot WR, and that position is going to get a lot of targets in an 11 personnel, which is sort of their base offense.  And judging by the way Burrow and his slot WR at LSU (Jefferson) were connected, I could see him get even more targets next year.  Burrow sees and attacks the middle of the field so well.  Having Green and Ross outside will only open up the middle of the field more.  And Burrow has four years in the league, Green has 9.  If you have just 360 receptions and 6000 yards in the next five years, Boyd will essentially be tied with Green's numbers after 9 years.  

Tyler Boyd has never had 1,050+ yards in his career, but you're saying "just" 1,200 yards a year for the next 5 years.

Lol