Did You Know... (AJ Green)

[Wes Mantooth]

(05-28-2020, 12:58 PM)fredtoast Wrote: That was my position also.

But the free agent market for WRs was dry as a bone this year.  There was nothing.  And you can't always count on players becoming available through trades.  How could we have known Hopkins would be up for trade when e tagged Green?

So the tag works.  We don't have to commit to a long term deal until we see if he can play and Green gets a huge payday.

I don't think that's really fair to say.

You will probably will disagree with this statement, but I'm not so sure Emmanuel Sanders is all that much worse than AJ at this point.  In fact, just because he's been healthier you could argue that he's a safer investment.

He's only a year older than AJ, and has had a somehwat comparable career.  At times he's been an elite player.  He's missed a few games, but nowhere near what AJ has of late. 

He managed to put up 869 yards last year, which isn't too shabby considering the circumstances.  He spent the fist half of the year paired with Joe Flacco in Denver, who was among the league's worst starting QB's (He had 6 TD's through 8 games).  He then got shipped mid-season and had to learn a new offense, which happened to be for a team that was 2nd only to the Ravens in rush attempts. 

If you look at the year prior he had 868 yards in only 12 games, and that was with Case Keenum at the helm.

I'm not saying Sanders is a stud, or that I wouldn't take a healthy AJ Green over him.  But I am saying he's far from "nothing".  He also signed for 2 year 16 mil (Up to 19 with incentives). 

Aj Green @ 18 mil vs. Sanders @ 8 mil.  I'm not so sure Sanders isn't clearly the better use of money.  You could have brought in Austin Hooper with the savings, then proceeded to cut or trade Uzomah, netting another 3.5 mil in savings.

Just spitballing, but consider this...

AJ Green + Uzomah vs. Emannuel Sanders + Austin Hooper +3.5 mil

Also, Robby Anderson isn't nothing either.  He's only 27 year old and has done decently considering his situation there.  He just signed for 2 years 20 mil.

To each their own, everyone is entitled to their opinion on AJ and whether or not they wanted him back.  But I really don't think it's fair to say there were no other options to bring in veterans to replace him.  People act like we had no other options other than to simply roll with Ross, Boyd, and Higgins.  This simply isn't true.  And people never consider that the cap savings could have been invested elsewher either.

Personally, I think a core of Sanders, Boyd, Higgins, Ross, and Tate sounds more than adequate.  When you start considered the other players that could be added with the cap savings, it becomes all that more enticing. (Ex: Austin Hooper or Joe Schobert)

[fredtoast]

(05-28-2020, 01:16 PM)Whatever Wrote: But a team can rescind the FT before the player signs it.  AJ still hasn't signed it.  They just didn't want to pull the tag.

I thought there was a window where the team was locked into the offer.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-27-2020, 12:53 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Did you know AJ Green is actually the 2nd highest paid receiver in the NFL this year?  Yup, it's true.

For those that didn't know, the franchise tag is an average of the top 5 highest paid receivers.  This year features Julio Jones at the top with a cap hit of 20.4 mil, followed by a log jam of guys b/t 17.25 and 17.95, thus elevating AJ to #2 spot.  Fwiw, here's is the top 10...

Player         Team           Salary Cap Value Cash Spent

Julio Jones          Falcons            $20,416,668        $22,200,000

A.J. Green          Bengals           $18,171,000        $18,171,000

Mike Evans          Buccaneers      $17,950,000        $16,750,000

Tyreek Hill          Chiefs              $17,740,000        $16,290,000

Sammy Watkins   Chiefs              $17,250,000        $9,000,000

Davante Adams  Packers             $16,475,000         $13,000,000

Alshon Jeffery  Eagles               $15,396,500         $11,500,000

Allen Robinson  Bears                $15,000,000        $13,000,000

Jarvis Landry Browns              $14,550,000        $13,050,000
 
T.Y. Hilton         Colts                  $14,542,000        $14,542,000

Misc Notes: Odell Beckham checks in at #11, with a 14.25 mil hit, and Deandre Hopkins checks in at #14 with a 12.5 mil hit

I just wanted to start this thread to really put into perspective just how much we're paying AJ.  As myself and many others have stated, AJ hasn't really been himself since 2015.  I know a lot of you are hopeful he can return to form this year.  Just for fun, let's see just how good he was in 2015...

He had a fantastic year, with 86 rec, 1,297 yards and 10 TD's.  Good for ranks of:

Yards - 8th
Receptions - 14th
TD's - 10th

So even in a prime AJ season, when he was 5 years younger and prior to injuries, he still didn't crack the top 5 in any category.

Now here we are, at age 32, having missed 50% of his games over the last 3 seasons, AJ Green makes more than every single receiver not named Julio Jones.  Think about that.  Really think about that.

So many of you wanted him, and now you've got him.  I hope he's worth it.

Which is why we need to get an extension for him that takes into consideration his injuries as of late, his age while taking
into consideration what he offers when healthy. Burrow wanted AJ here, right when I heard that I was all for tagging AJ but
at the same time working on a deal that is best for all sides before the season starts.

[Au165]

(05-28-2020, 01:29 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote:  And people never consider that the cap savings could have been invested elsewher either.

What's there to consider? We still have a relatively large amount of cap that we haven't chosen to spend. Our offer to Schobert was on par with JAX but in the end we didn't want to quite match that much money sunk in him that long. We never showed any interest in the FA TE market so that is simply wishful thinking to propose Hooper. Don't confuse not having interest in a player, or position, with not having the money to pay said player. 

If anything Dalton's money being tied up as long as it was precluded us from making more realistic moves then AJ did because we knew Dalton had no shot to be on this team next year and contribute.

[fredtoast]

(05-28-2020, 01:45 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote:  while taking into consideration what he offers when healthy.

There's the rub.

We don't know what he offers when healthy.  We have not seen him play since 2018.  And no matter how good Green was, he will still decline due to age.  He will be 32 this year.  You have to be very careful paying a WR beyond age 32.  Over the last ten seasons 81  different WRs have had a thousand yard receiving season.  Only 5 did it past age 32.

[SunsetBengal]

(05-28-2020, 11:04 AM)fredtoast Wrote:  Just for fun look at where the 2015 Bengals ranked in pass attempts.  .  .  .  26th.  Eighth in receiving yards looks much more impressive when you realize how little we threw the ball that year.

Green's numbers have always suffered because he played for a team that did not throw a lot.  Over the 8 seasons Green played for the Bengal ('11-'19) they rank 21st in the league in pass attempts.    Only one time in Green's career have they ranked in the top half of the league in pass attempts (12th in '13) and that year Green was 5th in the league in receiving yards per game.  He also ranked 2nd in receiving yards per game in 2016 when the Bengals ranked 20th in pass attempts

I am not going to try and argue that Green is the best receiver of his generation, or that he deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.  But his numbers do not reflect his greatness because he played for e ateam that did not throw a lot.

I kind of agree with what you're pointing to.  If only there were a stat that quantified his effectiveness when healthy, it would have to be near the top.

[Wes Mantooth]

(05-28-2020, 01:45 PM)Au165 Wrote: We still have a relatively large amount of cap that we haven't chosen to spend.

This is not nearly as large as you're choosing to represent it as.

Yes, if you look at our cap space right now you'll find a number around 24 mil.  The problem with this is it does not include the rookies.  Now I'm not so naive to just add the entire pool value of 15 mil to the cap, like Hobson and many others do.  Not all of the rookies will count against it, and you have to make room against the top 53 for the new players as well.  But I think the reality is somewhere around 8-12 mil dollars is currently unaccounted for.

So let's split the difference in my estimate. Once you add Joe Burrow's, Tee Higgin's and Co. salaries, our cap space is going to look something like 14 mil.

Now we have to consider the very strong possibility that Mixon gets an extension.  His current cap hit is only 1.7 mil.  If he gets a new deal, which is very likely, that cap number probably looks something like 7-10 mil.  (And perhaps even greater if they were to choose to frontload it.)
With a Mixon extension you're now looking at, ballpark, somewhere b/t 5-10 mil in cap space.

And we all know (and love) that this team often earmarks cap space for things like injury settlements.  So exactly how much money do you realistically think the team believes they can spend right now?  Because believe me, it's 100% not 24 mil dollars, and it's far from a "large number".

I suppose we can argue numbers and different players all day.  The point I was making though was simple, there were other veteran options other than AJ.  We weren't locked into all or nothing.  And other options create additional space, and potential for other signings.  Justg because we chose not to step up and match Jax's offer on Schoebert with enough space, doesn't mean our approach wouldn't have been different had that space been even greater.  Just because we didn't look to target a TE like Hooper doesn't necessarily mean we wouldn't have entertained had we had an additional 10 mil to spend.  You can't say for certain what would have happened.

I just don't think AJ is anywhere near worth being paid as the 2nd highest paid WR.  I give him about a 20% chance of even matching the #20's receivers production last year (1,107 yards).  I think that money could have been allocated better.  Obviously you disagree, and I guess that's ok.  To each their own.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-28-2020, 04:15 PM)fredtoast Wrote: There's the rub.

We don't know what he offers when healthy.  We have not seen him play since 2018.  And no matter how good Green was, he will still decline due to age.  He will be 32 this year.  You have to be very careful paying a WR beyond age 32.  Over the last ten seasons 81  different WRs have had a thousand yard receiving season.  Only 5 did it past age 32.

True, just hope AJ is a different animal than the rest of those guys and the couple years off actually helps him.

Never know, might be as fresh as we have seen him in some time. But you are right we don't know shit right now.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(05-28-2020, 04:15 PM)fredtoast Wrote: There's the rub.

We don't know what he offers when healthy.  We have not seen him play since 2018.  And no matter how good Green was, he will still decline due to age.  He will be 32 this year.  You have to be very careful paying a WR beyond age 32.  Over the last ten seasons 81  different WRs have had a thousand yard receiving season.  Only 5 did it past age 32.

But one of the 5 (Edelman) is nowhere near as good as AJ. So I like AJ’s odds of joining that list.

[Whatever]

(05-28-2020, 04:51 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: This is not nearly as large as you're choosing to represent it as.

Yes, if you look at our cap space right now you'll find a number around 24 mil.  The problem with this is it does not include the rookies.  Now I'm not so naive to just add the entire pool value of 15 mil to the cap, like Hobson and many others do.  Not all of the rookies will count against it, and you have to make room against the top 53 for the new players as well.  But I think the reality is somewhere around 8-12 mil dollars is currently unaccounted for.

So let's split the difference in my estimate. Once you add Joe Burrow's, Tee Higgin's and Co. salaries, our cap space is going to look something like 14 mil.

Now we have to consider the very strong possibility that Mixon gets an extension.  His current cap hit is only 1.7 mil.  If he gets a new deal, which is very likely, that cap number probably looks something like 7-10 mil.  (And perhaps even greater if they were to choose to frontload it.)
With a Mixon extension you're now looking at, ballpark,  somewhere b/t 5-10 mil in cap space.

And we all know (and love) that this team often earmarks cap space for things like injury settlements.  So exactly how much money do you realistically think the team believes they can spend right now?  Because believe me, it's 100% not 24 mil dollars, and it's far from a "large number".

I suppose we can argue numbers and different players all day.  The point I was making though was simple, there were other veteran options other than AJ.  We weren't locked into all or nothing.  And other options create additional space, and potential for other signings.  Justg because we chose not to step up and match Jax's offer on Schoebert with enough space, doesn't mean our approach wouldn't have been different had that space been even greater.  Just because we didn't look to target a TE like Hooper doesn't necessarily mean we wouldn't have entertained had we had an additional 10 mil to spend.  You can't say for certain what would have happened.

I just don't think AJ is anywhere near worth being paid as the 2nd highest paid WR.  I give him about a 20% chance of even matching the #20's receivers production last year (1,107 yards).  I think that money could have been allocated better.  Obviously you disagree, and I guess that's ok.  To each their own.

Yeah, I really don't get the "we still have cap space" argument at all.  We pretty much have that discussion every year around this time.  Usually, it's prefaced by a poor FA period, but they inevitably sign some extensions and/or a couple of C tier vets and get down to around their $10 mil rollover.  Just because they haven't spent it yet doesn't mean they won't.  Plus, does anybody seriously think that if we didn't decide to tag AJ we'd be sitting at $42 mil against the cap right now?  

[Whatever]

(05-28-2020, 11:04 AM)fredtoast Wrote:  Just for fun look at where the 2015 Bengals ranked in pass attempts.  .  .  .  26th.  Eighth in receiving yards looks much more impressive when you realize how little we threw the ball that year.

Green's numbers have always suffered because he played for a team that did not throw a lot.  Over the 8 seasons Green played for the Bengal ('11-'19) they rank 21st in the league in pass attempts.    Only one time in Green's career have they ranked in the top half of the league in pass attempts (12th in '13) and that year Green was 5th in the league in receiving yards per game.  He also ranked 2nd in receiving yards per game in 2016 when the Bengals ranked 20th in pass attempts

I am not going to try and argue that Green is the best receiver of his generation, or that he deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.  But his numbers do not reflect his greatness because he played for e ateam that did not throw a lot.

That's a bit misleading.  The Bengals didn't throw a lot as a team, but they threw to AJ a lot.  He ranked 26th, 5th, 3rd, 32nd, 16th, 47th, and 8th in Targets from '11-17.  He would have ranked significantly higher in '14 and '16, but he missed 3 and 6 games respectively in those seasons.

He's certainly a Bengal great, but the guy is very injury prone

[Essex Johnson]

(05-27-2020, 12:53 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Did you know AJ Green is actually the 2nd highest paid receiver in the NFL this year?  Yup, it's true.

For those that didn't know, the franchise tag is an average of the top 5 highest paid receivers.  This year features Julio Jones at the top with a cap hit of 20.4 mil, followed by a log jam of guys b/t 17.25 and 17.95, thus elevating AJ to #2 spot.  Fwiw, here's is the top 10...

Player         Team           Salary Cap Value Cash Spent

Julio Jones          Falcons            $20,416,668        $22,200,000

A.J. Green          Bengals           $18,171,000        $18,171,000

Mike Evans          Buccaneers      $17,950,000        $16,750,000

Tyreek Hill          Chiefs              $17,740,000        $16,290,000

Sammy Watkins   Chiefs              $17,250,000        $9,000,000

Davante Adams  Packers             $16,475,000         $13,000,000

Alshon Jeffery  Eagles               $15,396,500         $11,500,000

Allen Robinson  Bears                $15,000,000        $13,000,000

Jarvis Landry Browns              $14,550,000        $13,050,000
 
T.Y. Hilton         Colts                  $14,542,000        $14,542,000

Misc Notes: Odell Beckham checks in at #11, with a 14.25 mil hit, and Deandre Hopkins checks in at #14 with a 12.5 mil hit

I just wanted to start this thread to really put into perspective just how much we're paying AJ.  As myself and many others have stated, AJ hasn't really been himself since 2015.  I know a lot of you are hopeful he can return to form this year.  Just for fun, let's see just how good he was in 2015...

He had a fantastic year, with 86 rec, 1,297 yards and 10 TD's.  Good for ranks of:

Yards - 8th
Receptions - 14th
TD's - 10th

So even in a prime AJ season, when he was 5 years younger and prior to injuries, he still didn't crack the top 5 in any category.

Now here we are, at age 32, having missed 50% of his games over the last 3 seasons, AJ Green makes more than every single receiver not named Julio Jones.  Think about that.  Really think about that.

So many of you wanted him, and now you've got him.  I hope he's worth it.

Sadly AJ got hurt with Andy went down in 2015.. only 9 receptions over the last 3 regular games and not that many targets.. If you actually look at targets and receptions.. AJ has done an amazing job in those healthy years.. his targets are much below some of this top competitors.. As for wanting him.. I am sure Burrow is happy he has AJ coming in as a rookie.. As for hope he is worth it.. I actually feel the same way about Burrow.. I hope what we passed up in trade value he ends up being worth it.. The gut says he will be as my gut says AJ has a great year this year..

[fredtoast]

(05-28-2020, 05:32 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: But one of the 5 (Edelman) is nowhere near as good as AJ. So I like AJ’s odds of joining that list.

Edelman only did it because he was juiced up on PEDs.

[fredtoast]

(05-28-2020, 07:36 PM)Whatever Wrote: That's a bit misleading.  The Bengals didn't throw a lot as a team, but they threw to AJ a lot.  He ranked 26th, 5th, 3rd, 32nd, 16th, 47th, and 8th in Targets from '11-17.  He would have ranked significantly higher in '14 and '16, but he missed 3 and 6 games respectively in those seasons.

He's certainly a Bengal great, but the guy is very injury prone

Despite missing 9 games from 2011 through 2017 Green was still 4th among WRs in both total receiving yards and tds.  

Only one WR (Antonio Brown) had more tds and yards than Green over that stretch and he had almost 150 more targets (1088 to 949).

Among the top 10 WRs in receptions over that stretch Julio Jones is the only one with a higher average per catch than Green (15.5 to 14.8).

[Circleville Guy]

(05-28-2020, 01:45 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Which is why we need to get an extension for him that takes into consideration his injuries as of late, his age while taking
into consideration what he offers when healthy. Burrow wanted AJ here, right when I heard that I was all for tagging AJ but
at the same time working on a deal that is best for all sides before the season starts.

Can you be more specific on this contract offer? AJ isn’t going to sign an incentive based contract. The only way he’s gonna agree to a bargain deal is if he knows that he’s hurt. He’s gonna want guaranteed money. I don’t get wanting to commit even more than the almost 19 million that they’ve already committed to until they see him play a healthy and productive stretch of games. Take the AJ love out of it. Would you also be for signing a couple of more free agents in the exact same situation or would you hate that deal?

[Wes Mantooth]

A lot of people will probably hate what I'm about to say...

My best case scenario for AJ Green and the Bengals: AJ comes back strong, puts up some decent numbers, and then is traded before the year is up.

Have whatever money avaiable that it would cost to sign him long term to use elswhere in FA. Pick up a late 1st or 2nd in the process. that type of pick is probably going to cost you b/t 2 to 3 mil per (Ex: Nkeal Harry, the 32 pick in 2019 signed for 4 years 10 mil).

You then have the following...

A young prospect locked in for 4 years at under 3 mil per season PLUS 10 to 13 mil extra to spend elsewhere.

To me it's a no brainer. You can go get yourself another Tee Higgins caliber of player, and free tons of cash. The alternative is either watching AJ walk after the season with nothing to show for it, or it's investing BIG money into a 33 year old receiver with injury concerns.

That's why I think we should root for AJ to get shipped off mid-season. If that happens then the tag will have made sense to me, and i would feel like the Bengals have played their hand absolutely perfectly.

Thoughts???

[fredtoast]

(05-29-2020, 12:50 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: To me it's a no brainer.  You can go get yourself another Tee Higgins caliber of player, and free tons of cash. 

Thoughts???

There is a reason no NFL team thinks like you do.  That is the fact that lots of draft picks and even free agent signings flop.

If draft picks and free agents always worked out thn no team in the league would have a player over 30 years old no matter how good he was.  But in the real world when teams find talented players they pay them well instead of just turning them over constantly for new draft picks or young free agents.

That is why you never hear a single GM say, "I hope our players don't do well this year so we don't have to pay them a lot of money."  Instead, when they find a great player they usually are willing to pay them well to keep playing on their team.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-29-2020, 12:38 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: Can you be more specific on this contract offer? AJ isn’t going to sign an incentive based contract. The only way he’s gonna agree to a bargain deal is if he knows that he’s hurt. He’s gonna want guaranteed money. I don’t get wanting to commit even more than the almost 19 million that they’ve already committed to until they see him play a healthy and productive stretch of games. Take the AJ love out of it. Would you also be for signing a couple of more free agents in the exact same situation or would you hate that deal?

I don't see AJ getting anything besides an incentive laden contract. He has missed 24 straight frickin' games man.

3 year 42 million dollar contract but incentive laden is about where I would offer if he is healthy. If he misses significant time
still he should lose a lot of money from his contract. Just the way it is. You never know, he might come back fresh as ever 
essentially having 2 years off.

[Wes Mantooth]

(05-29-2020, 01:02 PM)fredtoast Wrote: There is a reason no NFL team thinks like you do.  That is the fact that lots of draft picks and even free agent signings flop.

If draft picks and free agents always worked out thn no team in the league would have a player over 30 years old no matter how good he was.  But in the real world when teams find talented players they pay them well instead of just turning them over constantly for new draft picks or young free agents.

That is why you never hear a single GM say, "I hope our players don't do well this year so we don't have to pay them a lot of money."  Instead, when they find a great player they usually are willing to pay them well to keep playing on their team.

What the heck are you talking about?  Where did I say anywhere that draft picks or free agents always work out?  Where did I say that I hope AJ doesn't do well?

I said neither of these things. In fact, I actually said that I hope AJ comes back strongs and puts up decent numbers.  Which is the exact opposite of "I hope our players don't do well..."

Here are your scenarios regarding AJ Green without a trade...

-Scenario A:  AJ walks after the season, and we get NOTHING

-Scenario B - AJ signs a new contract. We now most likely have a cap number of 13-16 mil dollars for a 33 yrd old receiver starting in 2021.

Here is my scenario....

Scenario C - We acquire a late first or 2nd round pick for AJ mid-season, and we invest the money that could have been used for an extenstion into Free Agency.

Am I saying that draft pick or free agent in Scenario C id destined to work out?  No.  And nowhere did I represent that idea.  I'm saying that Scenario C is, IMO, the most ideal of the 3.

I'm not really sure what you're failing to understand here.  And you're more than welcome to disagree. But you're compoletely twisting what I'm saying.  And the sad fact, is given your previous statements on aging WR's, you probably agree with me here. But rather than admit that, you choose to go out of your way to argue about BS.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-29-2020, 10:34 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Despite missing 9 games from 2011 through 2017 Green was still 4th among WRs in both total receiving yards and tds.  

Only one WR (Antonio Brown) had more tds and yards than Green over that stretch and he had almost 150 more targets (1088 to 949).

Among the top 10 WRs in receptions over that stretch Julio Jones is the only one with a higher average per catch than Green (15.5 to 14.8).

Yeah, AJ has been as good as anybody when healthy pretty much and I would argue with lesser QB play than Julio.