How likely to see NFL

[*Nately120*]

(06-29-2020, 06:53 PM)jason Wrote: I'm now firmly in the 0% chance there will be an NFL season in 2020. It figures that the year the Bengals land their stud QB of the future that things get whacky. On top of that, if they don't play this season, we'll be paying AJ Green (who I was in favor of tagging) on the franchise tag... It'll be damn near 3 years since he's last seen the field at that point.

At least we get to see Ben arrive to the 2021 training camp nearly 2 years off the field and looking like Jamarcus Russell.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(06-29-2020, 06:53 PM)jason Wrote: I'm now firmly in the 0% chance there will be an NFL season in 2020. It figures that the year the Bengals land their stud QB of the future that things get whacky. On top of that, if they don't play this season, we'll be paying AJ Green (who I was in favor of tagging) on the franchise tag... It'll be damn near 3 years since he's last seen the field at that point.

I can’t imagine how badly that would suck for AJ. Yes, he’s making millions, but the poor guy just can’t catch a break. It’s like he’s never supposed to play again or something...

[WestCoastBengalsFan]

I'm not ready to say no NFL football at all in 2020 but I am ready to finally say I don't think there will be any fans at games. Was really hoping for something to be worked out but it just doesn't seem to be feasible at this point.

[*jason*]

(06-29-2020, 07:06 PM)Nately120 Wrote: At least we get to see Ben arrive to the 2021 training camp nearly 2 years off the field and looking like Jamarcus Russell.

Sammi Sosa and Jamarcus Russell's love child.

[Earendil]

(07-02-2020, 11:07 PM)jason Wrote: Sammi Sosa and Jamarcus Russell's love child.

Add in a little Jabba the Hut...

[Bengalitis]

The NFL must go on, not because we must ignore what's going on, but because we must adapt.
Appeasing our desire to watch the game while WE are healthy, is very important.
I will buy 1 bengals related stuff if this season goes thru to support the team.
Who-Dey  gonna beat them Bengals? No 1, not even the 'rona virus.

[Wes Mantooth]

I think the logistics of having a season are going to be more difficult than some think. Acknowledging this doesn't have to mean you're subscribing to the theory that Covid-19 = The Black Plague. It doesn't need to be a political discussion either. If you look at how other the leagues, and even other businesses are approaching testing then I think you can safely assume that the NFL will follow a similar suit.

It seems to be commonplace that a posiitive test results in a 14 day quarantine, which is then followed by producing a negative test result before returning to work. Now imagine if you have a player, or two, or three, test positive over a week or so span. These guys are going to be out for a minimum of two weeks, and up to 3 or 4 weeks total. Then imagine another case or two coming a week or so behind these. They'll overlap. And they'll continue to overlap week to week.

Clemson just saw 23 football players test positive a few weeks ago. Imagine what happens if this were to occur in season? What happens if 23 players on The Bengals test positive for Covid-19 in the middle of October? This is a question you have to have an answer for. There has to be some type of contigency plan built into the season if this were to occur. You can't simply say this won't happen. It did happen, just a few weeks ago.

This league will have star players that will be sidelined at some point during the season, due to a positive test. It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when, and who. What does this mean from a competition standpoint? How do you prepare for, or combat this scenario? I don't have that answer, and I don't believe the NFL does either.

Getting further into the sheer logistics of everything, things like travel, it becomes even all the more murky. Let's say NFL Team A has a player or two produce a positive test on Weds. What hurdles will they face when fly out to another city just days later? If you're the Hilton Hotel in Miami, and you've got a team coming in of 100+ employees what protections and safeguards might you look at?

The MLB is already running into testing problems only a few weeks in. They're supposed to be testing every two or so days. But they're already seeing results coming in later than the next scheduled test. One team just had to cancel their practice on Monday because they still haven't received their results from Fri. And keep in mind, their roster is less than half the size of an NFL team. They also have less staff as well.

It's real easy to say "None of these guys are going to die, most will probably be asymptomatic" and use that as a reason that they should or will play. But when you start considering just how difficult this entire process will be I think you'll understand that it just might not be doable.

If MLB and the NBA start up without a hitch then that will tell you everything you need to know. But I think this is going to be a disaster, and both will either not start at all, or shut it down. Everything surrounding this issue right now is a logistical nightmare.

[Luvnit2]

(07-07-2020, 11:23 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I think the logistics of having a season are going to be more difficult than some think.  Acknowledging this doesn't have to mean you're subscribing to the theory that Covid-19 = The Black Plague.  It doesn't need to be a political discussion either.  If you look at how other the leagues, and even other businesses are approaching testing then I think you can safely assume that the NFL will follow a similar suit.

It seems to be commonplace that a posiitive test results in a 14 day quarantine, which is then followed by producing a negative test result before returning to work.  Now imagine if you have a player, or two, or three, test positive over a week or so span.  These guys are going to be out for a minimum of two weeks, and up to 3 or 4 weeks total.  Then imagine another case or two coming a week or so behind these.  They'll overlap. And they'll continue to overlap week to week.

Clemson just saw 23 football players test positive a few weeks ago.  Imagine what happens if this were to occur in season?  What happens if 23 players on The Bengals test positive for Covid-19 in the middle of October?  This is a question you have to have an answer for.  There has to be some type of contigency plan built into the season if this were to occur.  You can't simply say this won't happen.  It did happen, just a few weeks ago.

This league will have star players that will be sidelined at some point during the season, due to a positive test.  It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when, and who.  What does this mean from a competition standpoint?  How do you prepare for, or combat this scenario?  I don't have that answer, and I don't believe the NFL does either.

Getting further into the sheer logistics of everything, things like travel, it becomes even all the more murky.  Let's say NFL Team A has a player or two produce a positive test on Weds.  What hurdles will they face when fly out to another city just days later?  If you're the Hilton Hotel in Miami, and you've got a team coming in of 100+ employees what protections and safeguards might you look at?  

The MLB is already running into testing problems only a few weeks in.  They're supposed to be testing every two or so days.  But they're already seeing results coming in later than the next scheduled test.  One team just had to cancel their practice on Monday because they still haven't received their results from Fri.  And keep in mind, their roster is less than half the size of an NFL team.  They also have less staff as well.

It's real easy to say "None of these guys are going to die, most will probably be asymptomatic" and use that as a reason that they should or will play.  But when you start considering just how difficult this entire process will be I think you'll understand that it just might not be doable.

If MLB and the NBA start up without a hitch then that will tell you everything you need to know.  But I think this is going to be a disaster, and both will either not start at all, or shut it down.  Everything surrounding this issue right now is a logistical nightmare.

I have to agree, very complicated to get the sports going. I think best bet is to cancel/move NFL season to 2021 spring. The same for college football. I do think we will have a much truer death rate by September/October which my best guess now will show it is no more deadly than the flu when the tests are completed. 
I think we are learning daily and we are learning fi you are age 65 and under with no underlying medical conditions chance of death are slim. If you are 50 and under with no underlying medical conditions, almost 0% of death. That is the only good news we know so far on this virus.

[Goalpost]

If they could get better results with the anti body tests, that would help. The info remains so hazy with this virus, but my understanding is that many people might have already had it, and didn't know it. This would show up in your anti bodies, hence, supposedly you'd be immune from getting it again.

[PAjwPhilly]

(07-07-2020, 11:43 AM)Goalpost Wrote: If they could get better results with the anti body tests, that would help.  The info remains so hazy with this virus, but my understanding is that many people might have already had it, and didn't know it.  This would show up in your anti bodies, hence, supposedly you'd be immune from getting it again.

The results on an antibody test are positive or negative. If you have antibodies, it would mean a foreign object elicited an immune response inside of you.

What better results are there? You either have antibodies or not.

And antibodies DO NOT equal immunity.  All it means is that you have been exposed to "it" before.

Without going into great detail about our immune system and what/how viruses work.... You have different types of antibodies and you have a finite number at any given time (i.e. you have a specific amount). And it seems like our IgG antibodies severely drop in [concentration] in a few months as opposed to years for other things.

https://sites.nationalacademies.org/BasedOnScience/having-antibodies-to-the-novel-coronavirus-is-not-the-same-thing-as-having-immunity-to-covid-19/index.htm

[Sled21]

Ever have the flu more than once? Antibodies are not a magic bullet. But if they played Major League Sports during the 1918 Spanish Flu, I guess we can figure out how to do it now....  



And after reading the last few pages, just geeze...

[fredtoast]

(07-07-2020, 11:39 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote:  I do think we will have a much truer death rate by September/October which my best guess now will show it is no more deadly than the flu when the tests are completed. 

What makes you say this?

Evidence from populations where almost 100% have been tested, like on the cruise ship Diamond Princess, seem to indicate that the death rate is at least 0.5% which is five times more deadly than the flu.

And, of course, almost half of the US population takes flu shots to protect them, so even if the death rate is the same Covid-19 would be twice as deadly because their is no vaccine to protect half the population.

[Luvnit2]

(07-07-2020, 01:59 PM)fredtoast Wrote: What makes you say this?

Evidence from populations where almost 100% have been tested, like on the cruise ship Diamond Princess, seem to indicate that the death rate is at least 0.5% which is five times more deadly than the flu.

And, of course, almost half of the US population takes flu shots to protect them, so even if the death rate is the same Covid-19 would be twice as deadly because their is no vaccine to protect half the population.

Simple Math

Have you seen the death rates for healthy people under 65? How many people were 65 and older on that cruise ship with an underlying condition that dies? 

Did we get better at treating the virus after initial shock of it? 

Just look at our numbers and CDC says 10X number of reported cases based on their research have already had it. Cases going up while deaths coming down, that is a great news, not bad news. Clermont County in Ohio has not had a death since June 5th. They have had 6 deaths from China Flu and had 134 from the common flu. 

Restaurants open, kids playing basketball indoors, baseball and soccer. Again, all good news as new cases don't appear to be life threatening as they were prior to knowing who we need to protect (older people and those with underlying health conditions)

[fredtoast]

(07-07-2020, 02:15 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Simple Math

Have you seen the death rates for healthy people under 65? How many people were 65 and older on that cruise ship with an underlying condition that dies? 

What "simple math"?  I thought the problem was that we could not get a good estimate of the death rate because we have not had enough testing to tell how many people have been infected.  So please show me this "simple math" that shows a death rate of 0.1% like the common flu.

And exactly what "death rates" are you talking about?  I thought you were talking about "everyone" when you said it was no more deadly than the flu?  Did you mean to say it was 500% more deadly for older people but just the same for young healthy people?

[fredtoast]

(07-07-2020, 02:15 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote:  Cases going up while deaths coming down, that is a great news, not bad news.

What if death rates are just lagging behind infection rate because people linger for a while before dying?

[WeezyBengal]

(07-07-2020, 01:59 PM)fredtoast Wrote: What makes you say this?

Evidence from populations where almost 100% have been tested, like on the cruise ship Diamond Princess, seem to indicate that the death rate is at least 0.5% which is five times more deadly than the flu.

And, of course, almost half of the US population takes flu shots to protect them, so even if the death rate is the same Covid-19 would be twice as deadly because their is no vaccine to protect half the population.

Death rate DRAMATICALLY changes based on age and underlying conditions. 99.9% of NFL athletes are in no significant danger of dying from Covid. And if that .1% is in danger from dying from the virus, then they shouldn't play. It's really that simple. 

[*Nately120*]

(07-07-2020, 02:34 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Death rate DRAMATICALLY changes based on age and underlying conditions. 99.9% of NFL athletes are in no significant danger of dying from Covid. And if that .1% is in danger from dying from the virus, then they shouldn't play. It's really that simple. 

I don't think anyone is too concerned NFL players are going to die from it, but players aren't going to be able to play if they test positive which is the NFL-related issue.  If half of your starters can test positive for covid and need to be quarantined or go to the hospital I don't think they'll be on the field playing professional-level football.

Though I could picture a fever-delirious Joe Burrow handing the ball to explosive-diarrhea Joe Mixon for the score.

[bengals1969]

(07-07-2020, 02:53 PM)Nately120 Wrote: I don't think anyone is too concerned NFL players are going to die from it, but players aren't going to be able to play if they test positive which is the NFL-related issue.  If half of your starters can test positive for covid and need to be quarantined or go to the hospital I don't think they'll be on the field playing professional-level football.

Though I could picture a fever-delirious Joe Burrow handing the ball to explosive-diarrhea Joe Mixon for the score.

The season isn't up to New York to start and stop.  Mayors and governors get a vote along with the NFL Commissioner and some may vote No regardless what the NFL wants.  The Wuhan virus measures have now descended into a political swamp of noxious fumes.  So many narratives on death rates, infection rates, ways of communication. 
Me, the unwashed and informed, I say get going with the season and allow fans to come in some capacity.  

[*Nately120*]

(07-07-2020, 03:22 PM)bengals1969 Wrote: The season isn't up to New York to start and stop.  Mayors and governors get a vote along with the NFL Commissioner and some may vote No regardless what the NFL wants.  The Wuhan virus measures have now descended into a political swamp of noxious fumes.  So many narratives on death rates, infection rates, ways of communication. 
Me, the unwashed and informed, I say get going with the season and allow fans to come in some capacity.  

I think the issue is that "getting going with the season" is easy, but predicting what happens when some players and some teams are hit with more or more severe cases than others and teams become patchwork squads of NFL starters and replacement players is the big question mark.

What I'm saying is that starting the season isn't the issue, it's how teams and the league react if/when an unpredictable number of players begin to test positive.  Add in stuff like the Chiefs signing a single player to a 10 year and half a billion dollar deal and probably not wanting him to have any chance of suffering from a disease that might have long-term effects and you face a real likelihood that the NFL players who won't suffer if they miss a single year electing to sit things out if covid starts to spread among players.

Hell, I"m actually surprised the doom-and-gloom Bengals fans aren't already dreading Joe Burrow getting a nasty case of covid that has lingering effects and makes him the next Greg Cook.

[PAjwPhilly]

(07-07-2020, 02:34 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Death rate DRAMATICALLY changes based on age and underlying conditions. 99.9% of NFL athletes are in no significant danger of dying from Covid. And if that .1% is in danger from dying from the virus, then they shouldn't play. It's really that simple. 

Just plain wrong. Dangerous. Hyperbolic....  What is your belief that muscle mass, size and speed (i.e athleticism) have anything to due with the immune system? The more you bench doesn't make your immune system more robust.  In all actuality pushing yourself as hard as you can LOWERS the immune system. That is why rest is so important when you train.

Nick Cordero. Stage actor/tap dancer... the man was in great shape. He had no underlying issues. And he was 41. He died after a long fight with COVID-19.
Shobushi Kanji. Wrestler. dead at 28.

I could name more, but why waste time with dead horses.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/05/obituaries/nick-cordero-dead-coronavirus.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shobushi_Kanji