How likely to see NFL

[PAjwPhilly]

Here is an article from a professor of medicine from University of Virginia about the long lasting symptoms some experience post infection.... blood clots, chronic fatigue, possible lasting lung damage, heart tissue damage and/or irregular beating.... It can even bring forth diabetes in certain individuals.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/what-doctors-know-about-lingering-symptoms-from-coronavirus

I wouldn't play sports this year. If I made a million dollars why risk my health to please people this year when there is no vaccine or true treatment pathway. If 1 athlete dies to please a crowd that is sad.

The R-nought factor is 5.7 for COVID-19. That means for every sick person you can expect a spread to 5-6 people. That makes it very hard to contain.

https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number#covid-19-r-0

The death rate is still 4.4% in the US. And in some other developed super-powers it went as high as 15%.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

So if 1 person can spread it to 5 or 6... and it kills between 5-15% of people and those that recover can have lasting damage for years... yeah if I'm a millionaire athlete I wouldn't risk my future for 1 jacked-up season that will go down in history with an asterick.....

[PAjwPhilly]

(07-07-2020, 11:39 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I have to agree, very complicated to get the sports going. I think best bet is to cancel/move NFL season to 2021 spring. The same for college football. I do think we will have a much truer death rate by September/October which my best guess now will show it is no more deadly than the flu when the tests are completed. 
I think we are learning daily and we are learning fi you are age 65 and under with no underlying medical conditions chance of death are slim. If you are 50 and under with no underlying medical conditions, almost 0% of death. That is the only good news we know so far on this virus.

Where are you getting your information? You toss around numbers as fact but you don't show evidence as such.

(07-07-2020, 02:15 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Simple Math

Have you seen the death rates for healthy people under 65? How many people were 65 and older on that cruise ship with an underlying condition that dies? 

Did we get better at treating the virus after initial shock of it? 

Just look at our numbers and CDC says 10X number of reported cases based on their research have already had it. Cases going up while deaths coming down, that is a great news, not bad news. Clermont County in Ohio has not had a death since June 5th. They have had 6 deaths from China Flu and had 134 from the common flu. 

Restaurants open, kids playing basketball indoors, baseball and soccer. Again, all good news as new cases don't appear to be life threatening as they were prior to knowing who we need to protect (older people and those with underlying health conditions)

Xenophobic, hate-speech..... that's not cool, necessary.... don't sink to that level.

The origin of the virus comes from bats. Bats have a cool feature that when they get inflammation from a viral infection, they slow down the inflammation in that area. Humans do not have this "fail-safe" so.... SARS.... Severe Acute Respiratory..... The virus hits our respiratory system very hard, and a twitchy immune system can cause enough inflammation to kill you. You kill you.

https://www.sciencealert.com/deadly-viruses-always-seem-to-start-off-with-bats-here-s-why-they-re-patient-zero

[Bengalitis]

(06-16-2020, 09:02 PM)J24 Wrote: Yeah I'm tired of it too. 
I think after the election I think people are just going to want everything to be done then even if we are not done by then.

(07-07-2020, 12:25 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Ever have the flu more than once? Antibodies are not a magic bullet. But if they played Major League Sports during the 1918 Spanish Flu, I guess we can figure out how to do it now....  



And after reading the last few pages, just geeze...

The lawyering wasnt as bad then as it is now.  Thats the deal breaker in all this i think.

[bengals1969]

(07-07-2020, 03:40 PM)Nately120 Wrote: I think the issue is that "getting going with the season" is easy, but predicting what happens when some players and some teams are hit with more or more severe cases than others and teams become patchwork squads of NFL starters and replacement players is the big question mark.

What I'm saying is that starting the season isn't the issue, it's how teams and the league react if/when an unpredictable number of players begin to test positive.  Add in stuff like the Chiefs signing a single player to a 10 year and half a billion dollar deal and probably not wanting him to have any chance of suffering from a disease that might have long-term effects and you face a real likelihood that the NFL players who won't suffer if they miss a single year electing to sit things out if covid starts to spread among players.

Hell, I"m actually surprised the doom-and-gloom Bengals fans aren't already dreading Joe Burrow getting a nasty case of covid that has lingering effects and makes him the next Greg Cook.

If that's the criteria, there cannot be a season until a useful vaccine is produced.  Then the financial viability of the league has to be in question.
No revenues of any kind this season and maybe next.  Players not paid for one or two seasons.  Yet the rest of the economy is returning to work, has too, we have no choice.  That is a PR disaster for the league don't you think?

I found this from the CDC's website

• Cumulative hospitalization rates for COVID-19 in adults (18-64 years) at this time are higher than cumulative end-of-season hospitalization rates for influenza over each of the past 5 influenza seasons.
• For people 65 years and older, current cumulative COVID-19 hospitalization rates at this time are higher than cumulative end-of season hospitalization rates for influenza for 4 of the 5 past influenza seasons; lower only than rates observed during the 2017-18 season.
• For children (0-17 years), cumulative COVID-19 hospitalization rates are much lower than cumulative influenza hospitalization rates at comparable time points* during recent influenza seasons.
  

I'd think well conditioned and healthy football players would be closer to the 0-17 hospitalization rates than the 18-64. As you said each player and team will react differently, probably in such a way to make playing too hard to do during the 2020 season.

[*Nately120*]

(07-07-2020, 04:37 PM)bengals1969 Wrote: No revenues of any kind this season and maybe next.  Players not paid for one or two seasons.  Yet the rest of the economy is returning to work, has too, we have no choice.  That is a PR disaster for the league don't you think?

Ehh, based on most of the covid-related discussions I've seen there will be no PR nightmare for the NFL because if there is no season everyone who is upset is going to scramble to blame a political party for the fallout.  

I will say we will have a better idea of how the NFL will play out as soon as we see any other US-based sporting league begin to play.  If the NHL and NBA can get things going and not find themselves in absolute chaos then I'll be far more optimistic about this.  So far all I've gotten is updates like:

NHL teams resume training!
NHL team has 15 players test positive!

[Sled21]

(07-07-2020, 04:17 PM)PAjwPhilly Wrote: Xenophobic, hate-speech..... that's not cool, necessary.... don't sink to that level.

The virus started in Wuhan. Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, Southeast Asia Respiratory Syndrome, Dengue Fever, Ebola, Spanish Flu, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, West Nile Virus, Zika......... diseases have always been named for their places of origin. It's not hate speech or xenophobic, until it became in vogue to use such terms. 

[*jason*]

(07-07-2020, 05:30 PM)Sled21 Wrote: The virus started in Wuhan. Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, Southeast Asia Respiratory Syndrome, Dengue Fever, Ebola, Spanish Flu, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, West Nile Virus, Zika......... diseases have always been named for their places of origin. It's not hate speech or xenophobic, until it became in vogue to use such terms. 

He was responding to "China Flu". It's not a flu, and it's called Covid 19.

[CKwi88]

The cavalier attitude towards players being potentially exposed and infected and dismissing it with a "hurr durr well they probably won't die" is insanely idiotic as well. Death is hardly the only negative possible effect from Covid-19. Not to mention that these players have family (including older relatives and young children) that they have to worry about. Pretty sure none of these players have a "Player shall isolate themselves from all friends and family in the event of a Covid-19 diagnosis" clause in their contracts.

I've gone from "They'll definitely make it happen" to "This ain't gonna happen" in the span of about a month. It just doesn't make sense for football.

[Luvnit2]

(07-07-2020, 06:14 PM)jason Wrote: He was responding to "China Flu". It's not a flu, and it's called Covid 19.

My bad, China virus or China plague

Take your pick, China lied to the word and killed millions. I will never ignore China ignited this virus b not being honest and sharing

[*jason*]

(07-07-2020, 08:15 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: My bad, China virus or China plague

Take your pick, China lied to the word and killed millions. I will never ignore China ignited this virus b not being honest and sharing

Let's not get another thread locked. This thread is about NFL/ Bengals football... Unrelated manifestos aren't necessary.

[*jason*]

(07-07-2020, 07:28 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: The cavalier attitude towards players being potentially exposed and infected and dismissing it with a "hurr durr well they probably won't die" is insanely idiotic as well. Death is hardly the only negative possible effect from Covid-19. Not to mention that these players have family (including older relatives and young children) that they have to worry about. Pretty sure none of these players have a "Player shall isolate themselves from all friends and family in the event of a Covid-19 diagnosis" clause in their contracts.

I've gone from "They'll definitely make it happen" to "This ain't gonna happen" in the span of about a month. It just doesn't make sense for football.

Yep... It's gonna be a ton of effort and a logistical nightmare for a sub par and asterisked product. We could all use a the distraction of football or any sport for that matter, but I've come to terms with the fact that it's not going to happen.

The NFL always claimed it didn't have an off-season. This is going to be one long ass off-season.

[Benton]

(07-07-2020, 02:15 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Simple Math

Have you seen the death rates for healthy people under 65? How many people were 65 and older on that cruise ship with an underlying condition that dies? 

Did we get better at treating the virus after initial shock of it? 

Just look at our numbers and CDC says 10X number of reported cases based on their research have already had it. Cases going up while deaths coming down, that is a great news, not bad news. Clermont County in Ohio has not had a death since June 5th. They have had 6 deaths from China Flu and had 134 from the common flu. 

Restaurants open, kids playing basketball indoors, baseball and soccer. Again, all good news as new cases don't appear to be life threatening as they were prior to knowing who we need to protect (older people and those with underlying health conditions)

What you say may be accurate, but calling it the flu weakens any point you're trying to make.

[AussieBengal]

(07-07-2020, 11:23 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I think the logistics of having a season are going to be more difficult than some think.  Acknowledging this doesn't have to mean you're subscribing to the theory that Covid-19 = The Black Plague.  It doesn't need to be a political discussion either.  If you look at how other the leagues, and even other businesses are approaching testing then I think you can safely assume that the NFL will follow a similar suit.

It seems to be commonplace that a posiitive test results in a 14 day quarantine, which is then followed by producing a negative test result before returning to work.  Now imagine if you have a player, or two, or three, test positive over a week or so span.  These guys are going to be out for a minimum of two weeks, and up to 3 or 4 weeks total.  Then imagine another case or two coming a week or so behind these.  They'll overlap. And they'll continue to overlap week to week.

Clemson just saw 23 football players test positive a few weeks ago.  Imagine what happens if this were to occur in season?  What happens if 23 players on The Bengals test positive for Covid-19 in the middle of October?  This is a question you have to have an answer for.  There has to be some type of contigency plan built into the season if this were to occur.  You can't simply say this won't happen.  It did happen, just a few weeks ago.

This league will have star players that will be sidelined at some point during the season, due to a positive test.  It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when, and who.  What does this mean from a competition standpoint?  How do you prepare for, or combat this scenario?  I don't have that answer, and I don't believe the NFL does either.

Getting further into the sheer logistics of everything, things like travel, it becomes even all the more murky.  Let's say NFL Team A has a player or two produce a positive test on Weds.  What hurdles will they face when fly out to another city just days later?  If you're the Hilton Hotel in Miami, and you've got a team coming in of 100+ employees what protections and safeguards might you look at?  

The MLB is already running into testing problems only a few weeks in.  They're supposed to be testing every two or so days.  But they're already seeing results coming in later than the next scheduled test.  One team just had to cancel their practice on Monday because they still haven't received their results from Fri.  And keep in mind, their roster is less than half the size of an NFL team.  They also have less staff as well.

It's real easy to say "None of these guys are going to die, most will probably be asymptomatic" and use that as a reason that they should or will play.  But when you start considering just how difficult this entire process will be I think you'll understand that it just might not be doable.

If MLB and the NBA start up without a hitch then that will tell you everything you need to know.  But I think this is going to be a disaster, and both will either not start at all, or shut it down.  Everything surrounding this issue right now is a logistical nightmare.

Good post mate, I know the NFL has approached the football leagues over here about the biosecurity measures that have been put in place. An example is all teams fly in and out of venue city on the day of the game, that might not be practical in the NFL as all our flights are a couple of hours. We have also moved teams out of cities with outbreaks and had them play in other states, we actually have a team in our Rugby League competition from another country and have moved them to Australia until the borders reopen.

At one point we had plans to move players into isolation and have them live in hotels in a closed off clean zone, our cases dropped dramatically so we never got to that point. Though one of our sports is primary based in a state with the biggest outbreak and has had to move 9 teams to other parts of the country.

[Sled21]

I wonder how many NFL teams are following Alabama's lead and purposefully exposing the players so they get it prior to the season and then don't have to worry about it as much during the season.......

[fredtoast]

(07-07-2020, 09:42 PM)Benton Wrote: What you say may be accurate, but calling it the flu weakens any point you're trying to make.

Calling it the same as the flu proves he is peddling propaganda instead if facts.

If we count flu deaths like we count Covid-19 deaths then the flu kills between 3 to 7 thousand people a yera.  

The CDC uses complex algorithims to calculate the number of unreported flu deaths at between 20 to 65 thousand a year.  Those are the numbers that the people who use the term "China Flu" refer to.

But we already have 130 thousand Covid-19 deaths with MANY MANY more to come.

Still waiting for the "simple math" to show how they are the same.  

Basically the people who want a lower death rate just argue that total covid cases are underreported, but they refuse to admit that the number of Covid deaths could also be underreported due to lack of testing.



 

[Big Boss]

(07-08-2020, 08:43 AM)Sled21 Wrote: I wonder how many NFL teams are following Alabama's lead and purposefully exposing the players so they get it prior to the season and then don't have to worry about it as much during the season.......

My understanding is you can contract the virus more than once, so it doesn't help anything.  You may develop antibodies to better fight it off, but you're not immune.  

[Sled21]

(07-08-2020, 09:42 AM)Big Boss Wrote: My understanding is you can contract the virus more than once, so it doesn't help anything.  You may develop antibodies to better fight it off, but you're not immune.  

Yes, I know that.... evidently Alabama players do not.....

[PV Bengal]

(07-07-2020, 08:24 PM)jason Wrote: Yep... It's gonna be a ton of effort and a logistical nightmare for a sub par and asterisked product. We could all use a the distraction of football or any sport for that matter, but I've come to terms with the fact that it's not going to happen.

The NFL always claimed it didn't have an off-season. This is going to be one long ass off-season.

True.

Hey, I get it. Everybody on this site is a Bengals fan. Everybody is a football fan, too. We'd love to be able to have a completely normal season.

But the risks to the players are serious ... and they know it. The national news the other day showed a story about a 25-year old gal who ran marathons competitively. She came down with COVID-19 3 months ago. She never got sick enough to go to the hospital. She said that she's just about over it now but her Doc said that she'd likely suffer asthma for the rest of her life. Which means that she'll never be able to compete again. Ever.

Personally, I don't give a siht what your politics are or whether or not you're concerned about your personal safety. But if your opinion is that the players ought to play regardless, then you're really saying that you don't give a siht about their safety. You are saying that you'd be OK with Burrow, A.J., Mixon, Jonah, Geno, etc. never playing again just so you could watch them play this year.

If we don't have a season, so be it. Or if a vaccine becomes available in early 2021 and every player, coach, etc. ... on every team (no anti-vaxxers allowed) ... receives it, then a shortened "Spring season" would be possible.

Otherwise, suck it up and live with it until Fall 2021 ... maybe.

[*jason*]

(07-08-2020, 10:10 AM)Sled21 Wrote: Yes, I know that.... evidently Alabama players do not.....

Word travels slow down south....

[Sled21]

(07-08-2020, 10:50 AM)PV Bengal Wrote: True.

Hey, I get it. Everybody on this site is a Bengals fan. Everybody is a football fan, too. We'd love to be able to have a completely normal season.

But the risks to the players are serious ... and they know it. The national news the other day showed a story about a 25-year old gal who ran marathons competitively. She came down with COVID-19 3 months ago. She never got sick enough to go to the hospital. She said that she's just about over it now but her Doc said that she'd likely suffer asthma for the rest of her life. Which means that she'll never be able to compete again. Ever.

Personally, I don't give a siht what your politics are or whether or not you're concerned about your personal safety. But if your opinion is that the players ought to play regardless, then you're really saying that you don't give a siht about their safety. You are saying that you'd be OK with Burrow, A.J., Mixon, Jonah, Geno, etc. never playing again just so you could watch them play this year.

If we don't have a season, so be it. Or if a vaccine becomes available in early 2021 and every player, coach, etc. ... on every team (no anti-vaxxers allowed) ... receives it, then a shortened "Spring season" would be possible.

Otherwise, suck it up and live with it until Fall 2021 ... maybe.

Oh horsehockey. They have tests that give results in less than 15 minutes. If everyone is tested before each practice and game, they have less chance of contracting it in a controlled environment, even while playing, than they do by going out to a restaurant or clubbing, or going to a backyard cookout while they are sitting out the season. Does anyone really think these 20 something year olds with pockets of cash are going to sit home and quarantine they whole time???