Is the Henry deal enough for Mixon?

[Nicomo Cosca]

(07-17-2020, 08:42 PM)Bilbo Saggins Wrote: I should've said that skill position players can't carry a roster on their own. 


Many of the wins that you've cited were before the OL fell apart and the wheels started to fall off of the LB corps. I wasn't trying to knock AJ, Mixon, or any skill player. You need good skill players to win. It's just my philosophy(which I believe to be based in fact) that you can't expect skill position players to be so good that they can do everything by themselves. 

See how Andy Reid's teams have historically drafted when he's been a HC. He scoops up trench players and always fields solid lines. The teams that go deep in the playoffs or make the playoffs regularly almost always have good lines. 

Well, a good OL never hurts, but Reid didn’t win it all until he got an elite QB, elite, TE, and elite WR.

[J24]

People are missing the point on Mixon vs Henry.
1.) Henry just had his best year in the NFL but he is also going to be on the downhill of his career. He  just turned 26 and his coming off a season when he carried the Ball 386 times if you count regular season and playoffs. Mixon is 24 and had 100 less carries then Henry did last season. 

2.) I don't think we have seen the best of Joe particularly in the passing game. That's what he did best coming out of college but for some reason the Bengals haven't used him in that way.

[fredtoast]

(07-17-2020, 07:33 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote:  These guys are or were all studs, and are great examples of value to be had at the position.  They can't be ignored when having a conversation about later round talent.

I have never said that there are no good Rbs drafted after the first round.

All I have done is show that the odds of getting one are pretty slim.

You are looking at EVERY pick by ALL 32 teams to find just a handful of good players over the past few years.  The Bengals only have about 7 picks a year to find one of them, and I doubt we would ever use more than 2 a year on RB.

And you say it is okay to draft a RB that does not produce as a rookie, but what are the Bengals supposed to do if they let Mixon walk and the rookie the draft can't play right away?

[Wes Mantooth]

(07-18-2020, 10:09 AM)fredtoast Wrote: And you say it is okay to draft a RB that does not produce as a rookie, but what are the Bengals supposed to do if they let Mixon walk and the rookie the draft can't play right away?

Outside of the ability to find quality backs later in the draft, the free agency market produces tons and tons of value.  The position has been so devalued in recent years for guys that fall outside of the top 5 at the position, and manage to hit the open market.  There's a lot of quality backs to be had a relatively low prices.  There's decent veterans that have been supplanted by younger guys on rookie deals that allowed to walk.

Examples:

Mark Ingram - 3 years, 15 million.  He rushed for 2,812 with 24 TD's (937 yards, 8 TD's average) his last 3 years in New Orleans. He did this with only 23 starts out of possible 48.  Averaged 4.91 YPC, and produced two 50+ reception seasons there.

In his first year in Baltimore he threw up 1,018 yards and 10 TD's in 15 games. Averaged 5 yards a carry.

Lamar Miller - 4 years, 24 million.  Averaged 1,000 yards and 8 TD's his last two years on a bad Miami team. Houston picked him up, and he averaged a respectable 978 yards in his 3 years there, and was suitable starter.

Carlos Hyde - 1 year, 2.8 mil.  The guy who took over Miller in Houston when he went down.  Produced a respectable 1,070 yard, 6 TD, 4.4 YPC season.  Perfect stop-gap.

Frank Gore - After a great career in San Fran, the Colts signed him to a 3 year 12 million dollar deal in 2015.  He gave them 2,953 yards in 3 years there. (More than Mixon's 3 years here)

Karrem Hunt - 1 year, 1.1 mil in 2019, 1 year, 3.25 mil in 2020.  Lead the league in rushing in 2017.  Browns took a chance on him after being released.  We'll see how it plays out, but an incredible value.

To each their own, but if I were approzching the position, and for whatever reason I needed to replace Mixon, I would look to signings like these, and then pair them with a draft pick.  I think that serves as a great alternative when teams are in need of quickly filling the position.

The league is littered with capable veterans that can be had on the cheap.  Legaratte Blount bounced around the league for years on cheap deals and could serve as  stop-gap at any time. Jordan Howard is another perfect example of value.  After averaging over 1,110 yards in his first 3 years the Eagles snagged him in a trade where he was due only 700k in 2019.  He just reupped and carries a cap hit of 4.7 mil for 2020.

Once again, I'm not saying I want these guys over Mixon.  This is simply illustrating why the market for RB is a litte different and cheaper than other positions.  Not only can value be had later in the draft, but there's value in free agency as well.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(07-18-2020, 03:25 AM)J24 Wrote: People are missing the point on Mixon vs Henry.
1.) Henry just had his best year in the NFL but he is also going to be on the downhill of his career. He  just turned 26 and his coming off a season when he carried the Ball 386 times if you count regular season and playoffs. Mixon is 24 and had 100 less carries then Henry did last season. 

2.) I don't think we have seen the best of Joe particularly in the passing game. That's what he did best coming out of college but for some reason the Bengals haven't used him in that way.

Definitely cannot disagree with your points J24. Just think you have to take into account his lack of finishing big runs and Mixon's
prior production to give him the fairest of deals. Mixon has his best days in front of him for sure and you also have to take that into
account along with the poor OL play in front of him.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(07-17-2020, 03:44 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: 0 rushing TDs of 20+ yards in 693 carries.

Just doesn't have it in him to take it to the house. Either an issue of vision or final gear, don't know, but it's too big of a sample size now to be a fluke.

Yeah, I don't understand it. Mixon has great vision so I don't think it is that, I just don't think he has that final gear that say 
Henry does. The thing about Henry is he even gets more of the load in Tennessee so it is not that Mixon is more tired either
from carrying the ball too much.

[Bilbo Saggins]

(07-17-2020, 08:54 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Well, a good OL never hurts, but Reid didn’t win it all until he got an elite QB, elite, TE, and elite WR.

True.  All 3 of those players are extremely good.  My take: when you look at Hill's 2019 stats you see that he missed four games and was held without a catch for one game.  The Chiefs went 3-1 in the games that he missed and won the game in which he was held statless(vs. the Chargers).  That doesn't happen on a team that isn't complete from top to bottom.

[WestCoastBengalsFan]

Would not pay him Henry money. Would pay him up to 9 with potential to hit 10 for incentives. He truly wants to be a Bengal, he's a great locker room guy, and has been doing very well considering the line he has had to deal with. If it weren't for the soft skills I listed I would probably only give him up to 8. It's not that I don't like him, I do, it's just that as so many others have pointed out RB's are much easier to replace in todays NFL. Bengals took a chance on a guy with big character what-if's and he's knocked that part out of the park, find a happy middle and sign a guy that wants to be here. The end.

[Wes Mantooth]

(07-17-2020, 08:54 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Well, a good OL never hurts, but Reid didn’t win it all until he got an elite QB, elite, TE, and elite WR.

He may not won in it all but he's had ridiculous results and stretches of success throughout his career.

-He made it to the NFC Championship FIVE straight years.

-He made it the NFC Championship 6 out of 9 years.

-He made it to the playoffs 9 out of 11 years from '00 to '11.

-He's made it to the playoffs 6 out of 7 years in KC,  with the one year he didn't being a 9-7 season.

-He's made into the playoffs 15 times in 21 seasons.

-He's made into to at least the Division Round 11 times in 21 seaosons.

-He's only had 3 losing seasons in 21 years.

-His Win/Loss total is 207-128-1. (.618%)

Mahomes has been elite for 2 seasons.  McNabb was borderline elite for probably 3 or 4 seasons.  T.O. only had one elite season in Philly, and the rest of the guys he used throughout his tenure were often far from.  The closest thing he had to an elite TE he had there was Brett Celek.

He's almost always had excellent OL's though.

[fredtoast]

(07-18-2020, 07:01 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: -He's made into the playoffs 15 times in 21 seasons.

Only 5 coaches have made the playoffs 15 times.  Look at these numbers

Belichick.......18 times in 25 years.... .720%
Reid.............15 timees in 21 year.... .714%
Landry..........18 times in 29 years.... .620%
Paul Brown...15 times in 25 yeras.... .600%
Shula...........19 times in 33 years.... .578%


I know a lot fewer teams made the postseason when Paul Brown and Landry coached, but that is still pretty damn impressive.

I was thrilled to see Reid get a ring.  He is a great coach.

Another guy I'd like to see get a ring is Phillip Rivers (as long as it does not cost the Bengals)  Rivers has been consistenly among the best QBs in the league, but he won't get much credit until he at least gets to a Super Bowl.

[Nicomo Cosca]

Rivers has always rubbed me the wrong way. Between his crybaby antics and his extremely punchable face, he’s always been a guy I loved to root against. I’ll be perfectly happy with him never winning a ring.

Also, FFS man get em snipped already!

[zygrot24]

Every positions Pay will go up. They never go down. That being said.

I go 4 years, 42 mil. 25 guaranteed. I think that's fair for both sides

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

To answer the OP: Yes.

Not only is it enough, it is too much.

1) Henry >> Mixon.

Plus Joe is a two down back because Gio is a better receiver AND better picking up blitzes.

I am just against paying a mostly two down platyer $10-$12 million a year. Sorry, I love Joe, but no.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(07-20-2020, 12:28 AM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: To answer the OP: Yes.

Not only is it enough, it is too much.

1) Henry >> Mixon.

Plus Joe is a two down back because Gio is a better receiver AND better picking up blitzes.

I am just against paying a mostly two down platyer $10-$12 million a year. Sorry, I love Joe, but no.

Gio is not a better pass catcher. Just look at their college stats. Mixon had more receiving yds and TD’s. Mixon just hasn’t had a good OC yet at the NFL level. Gio had the benefit of playing for Hue and Jay.

[Whatever]

(07-20-2020, 12:42 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Gio is not a better pass catcher. Just look at their college stats. Mixon had more receiving yds and TD’s. Mixon just hasn’t had a good OC yet at the NFL level. Gio had the benefit of playing for Hue and Jay.

Dude, in college, Joe had Lincoln Riley as his OC and Baker Mayfield as his QB.

Gio had Bryan Renner at QB and John Shoop/Blake Anderson as OC's.

3 different OC's have used Gio as the 3rd down back over Mixon.  There's probably a reason for that.

[Wes Mantooth]

(07-20-2020, 12:42 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Gio is not a better pass catcher. Just look at their college stats. Mixon had more receiving yds and TD’s. Mixon just hasn’t had a good OC yet at the NFL level. Gio had the benefit of playing for Hue and Jay.

I wasn't aware that college stats were they end all be all in determing a player's skillset.  Good to know.  With that said, did you know Gio Bernard was a better rushing back in college than Mixon?  It's true, check this out:

Gio Bernard (UNC, 2 seasons) - 2,481 rushing yards, 25 rushing TD's

Joe Mixon (OKL, 2 seasons) - 2,027 rushing yards, 17 rushing TD's

I'm assuming that knowing this doesn't lead you to believe that Bernard should be our primary ball carrier?  So why would Mixon be a better receiving option based on his college numbers alone?

Fwiw, Mixon had 894 yards receiving in college to Bernard's 852.  So it's not like he produced at that much higher of a level.  He also played in an offense that produced over 4,000 yards passing in each of his two seasons. I'm guessing if you insert Bernard into those Baker Mayfield lead Oklahoma teams that his receiving numbers go way, way up.

[Wes Mantooth]

(07-20-2020, 10:05 AM)Whatever Wrote: Dude, in college, Joe had Lincoln Riley as his OC and Baker Mayfield as his QB.

Gio had Bryan Renner at QB and John Shoop/Blake Anderson as OC's.

3 different OC's have used Gio as the 3rd down back over Mixon.  There's probably a reason for that.

Spot on.  Fwiw, here are the offense's PPG and National Rank each player played with in college:

Mixon (OKL-'15, '16)  - 43.5 (4th), 43.9 (3rd). 

Bernard (UNC- '11, '12) - 24.8 (56th), 25.7 (53rd)

[Wes Mantooth]

(07-18-2020, 08:28 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Rivers has always rubbed me the wrong way.

Apparently he rubs his wife the right way. 

(The man has 8 kids!!!!)

[*Synric*]

Im fine with giving Joe a 3 year 33 to 35mil extension as long as they leave theirselves an early out like the Titans did with Henry.

Mixon is just one year removed from leading the AFC in rushing. He is a dynamic play maker that is dangerous with the ball in his hands those are the kinda guys you pay be it RB, TE, WR.

There is also another thing about Joe Mixon that everyone fails to mention... His Personality. Earlier this offseason I talked about Joe Burrow's Joe Cool personality how its great to have a guy leading the huddle that is always calm and hungry. Joe Mixon is a different type but no less important for a huddle he brings energy and a smile. You can tell Mixon loves to play football he is the ultimate Teammate always one the the first guys to congratulate a play defense or offense. Like Joe Burrow's calm Joe Mixon's enthusiasm is contagious.

I hate players dancing in the end zone because most of the time its some choreographed skit used to mock the opposite team (JuJu Smith-Schuster is the worst), but Joe Mixon seems so genuine when he does it its like a kid when you hand him ice cream. It wouldnt surprise me if he dances reviewing tape or if he started dancing in a Burger King for finding an extra order of onion rings in his bag...

[Nicomo Cosca]

(07-20-2020, 10:05 AM)Whatever Wrote: Dude, in college, Joe had Lincoln Riley as his OC and Baker Mayfield as his QB.

Gio had Bryan Renner at QB and John Shoop/Blake Anderson as OC's.

3 different OC's have used Gio as the 3rd down back over Mixon.  There's probably a reason for that.

(07-20-2020, 11:14 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I wasn't aware that college stats were they end all be all in determing a player's skillset.  Good to know.  With that said, did you know Gio Bernard was a better rushing back in college than Mixon?  It's true, check this out:

Gio Bernard (UNC, 2 seasons) - 2,481 rushing yards, 25 rushing TD's

Joe Mixon (OKL, 2 seasons) - 2,027 rushing yards, 17 rushing TD's

I'm assuming that knowing this doesn't lead you to believe that Bernard should be our primary ball carrier?  So why would Mixon be a better receiving option based on his college numbers alone?

Fwiw, Mixon had 894 yards receiving in college to Bernard's 852.  So it's not like he produced at that much higher of a level.  He also played in an offense that produced over 4,000 yards passing in each of his two seasons. I'm guessing if you insert Bernard into those Baker Mayfield lead Oklahoma teams that his receiving numbers go way, way up.

Fair enough. I’ve just always been in the minority of Bengals fans that finds Gio a tad overrated. I personally don’t think he does anything better than Mixon except for his blitz pickups and blocking.