Who would you rather have for all 16 games?

[Wes Mantooth]

(08-20-2020, 10:55 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Again, if you ignore the trends you are not looking at the most relevant data for today.  For 2020, who produces more if they play all 16 games.  

AJ Green.

[Wes Mantooth]

(08-20-2020, 10:54 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Ok!  This is good.  Now, I hate to ask, but can you break it down by year to see if Ross has indeed improved?  And has Green regressed?  I honestly don't know....but the eyeball test says it might.  

AJ Green Catch Rate of Targets 2018 - 59.7%

John Ross Catch Rate of Targets 2019 - 50.0%

AJ Green Drop % 2018 - 6.5%

John Ross Drop 2019 % - 14.3%

Notes:

-John Ross' catch rate improved from 2018 to 2019, from 36.2% to 50.0%

-But John Ross' drop rate was also worse in 2019, at 14.3% compared to 12.1% the year prior.

-AJ Green has a career catch rate of 58.7%, so his 2018 numbers showed no regression. In fact, they showed a slight improvement over average.

-John Ross' best catch rate of career (50%) is lower than AJ Green's worst (52.4.%)

[muskiesfan]

I have no idea how there is even a discussion on this. AJ Green hands down every time. If I had some how had the power to allow a WR to be healthy the entire season, it's AJ every time. Ross might land 4th on my list at best. I'd love to have a full 16 games of Green, Boyd, and Higgins.

[*SHRacerX*]

(08-20-2020, 01:35 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: AJ Green Catch Rate of Targets 2018 - 59.7%

John Ross Catch Rate of Targets 2019 - 50.0%

AJ Green Drop % 2018 - 6.5%

John Ross Drop 2019 % - 14.3%

Notes:

-John Ross' catch rate improved from 2018 to 2019, from 36.2% to 50.0%

-But John Ross' drop rate was also worse in 2019, at 14.3% compared to 12.1% the year prior.

-AJ Green has a career catch rate of 58.7%, so his 2018 numbers showed no regression. In fact, they showed a slight improvement over average.

-John Ross' best catch rate of career (50%) is lower than AJ Green's worst (52.4.%)

Good stuff, Wes..and it makes a strong argument that Green is more reliable.  I think we would agree he is not as explosive, and for a healthy 16 games, I think Ross would really put up some huge numbers.  Ross was also targeted more downfield, and Green had more slot routes.  I think that should change.  Get Ross some high % completions and let him use his elusiveness.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(08-20-2020, 12:33 PM)PhilHos Wrote: Has Ross even consistently produced over a 16 game span? Even though, AJ hasn't in over 2 years, the fact remains that he HAS, and he has done so at a high level.

My vote is with Green.

I understand your point, but the question was, who would you rather have assuming they would have a 16 game season.  It takes recent history of health out of the equation.  

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(08-20-2020, 10:58 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Ok, if you are going to go that (less relevant direction) way, I will say Ross had 500 yards last year and Green had 0.  

The question was:  If both were healthy all 16 games, who produces more?

Green has seven seasons with more receptions and receiving yards each season than Ross has during his entire career.

[*SHRacerX*]

(08-20-2020, 02:08 PM)muskiesfan Wrote: I have no idea how there is even a discussion on this. AJ Green hands down every time. If I had some how had the power to allow a WR to be healthy the entire season, it's AJ every time. Ross might land 4th on my list at best. I'd love to have a full 16 games of Green, Boyd, and Higgins.

Green played close to 30% of his snaps the last season he played in the slot.  Why do you think that it?  Because they want to help him get "free" a bit easier.  Do they consider doing that for Ross?  It isn't as outlandish as many of you are making it.

Healthy for 16 games THIS YEAR, as the players they are today, isn't a layup for AJ Green.  Not based on the most recent history and production (Yards, TDs, YPR).  

I have no doubts both will benefit from each other and Boyd and others will greatly benefit as well and to say I believe Ross would have a greater impact (production) isn't a slight to the almighty AJ Green.  It is just acknowledging what he is today and what Ross is today.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(08-20-2020, 02:19 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: Green has seven seasons with more receptions and receiving yards each season than Ross has during his entire career.

Thanks...more history lessons.  I understand that Green has a better resume, but who gets the job done if healthy for 16 games?  I think Ross provides more and that isn't a slight to Green.  It is just acknowledging where he is as a player today.  

[*PhilHos*]

(08-20-2020, 02:14 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: I understand your point, but the question was, who would you rather have assuming they would have a 16 game season.  It takes recent history of health out of the equation.  

That was my answer. Ross has yet to produce consistently over the course of 16 games whereas Green has done it multiple times, though not that recently. I would take the guy who's more likely to produce consistently over 16 games then the one who has yet to do it even given other variables like age and injury history.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(08-20-2020, 10:46 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: What about the most recent 8 games for each and what about trends?  TDs?

(08-20-2020, 02:14 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: I understand your point, but the question was, who would you rather have assuming they would have a 16 game season.  It takes recent history of health out of the equation.  

So are we supposed to account for trends and recent history or are we supposed to ignore trends and recent history?

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(08-20-2020, 02:21 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: Thanks...more history lessons.  I understand that Green has a better resume, but who gets the job done if healthy for 16 games?  I think Ross provides more and that isn't a slight to Green.  It is just acknowledging where he is as a player today.  

And why does he have a better resume? Because he is a better WR over a longer period of time at the highest level of competition. Turf toe and ruptured ligaments aren’t age related injuries. So if they’re both out there for 16 games I’m gonna to pick the guy he has proven he can produce year after year rather than the WR that had two good games in 3 years versus back ups during garbage time.

[muskiesfan]

(08-20-2020, 02:19 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: Green played close to 30% of his snaps the last season he played in the slot.  Why do you think that it?  Because they want to help him get "free" a bit easier.  Do they consider doing that for Ross?  It isn't as outlandish as many of you are making it.

Healthy for 16 games THIS YEAR, as the players they are today, isn't a layup for AJ Green.  Not based on the most recent history and production (Yards, TDs, YPR).  

I have no doubts both will benefit from each other and Boyd and others will greatly benefit as well and to say I believe Ross would have a greater impact (production) isn't a slight to the almighty AJ Green.  It is just acknowledging what he is today and what Ross is today.  

You can say whatever you want about "the almighty AJ Green" because I didn't put it like that. On this team, that's fitting. Ross is not in the same conversation as Green unless you're talking about them being teammates. Ross is nowhere near Green's level. That's not a knock on Ross, there aren't too many people on Green's level.

You asked for opinions. You even stated in another thread that you knew you'd get killed for it. So I appreciate what you're doing. You took a very unpopular stance and are explaining your side. That's fine. You can say whatever you want, but it won't change my opinion on the matter. If I could choose which WR I would want to play all 16 games, it's Green. In my opinion, Ross wouldn't be my second or third pick either.

I will say this thread is slightly better than the thread saying Burrow will have a better career than Mahomes.

[*PhilHos*]

(08-20-2020, 03:28 PM)muskiesfan Wrote: I will say this thread is slightly better than the thread saying Burrow will have a better career than Mahomes.

Yeah, but Burrow WILL have a better career than Mahomes. 

[TJHoushmandzadeh's Shiny Shoes]

I think there's actually a reasonable chance that over a full season Ross would put up more yards, yet I'd still take Green as the more consistent option and the one that defenses would double.

[muskiesfan]

(08-20-2020, 03:29 PM)PhilHos Wrote: Yeah, but Burrow WILL have a better career than Mahomes. 

All joking aside, I absolutely hope so. It would be amazing to see a QB have a career like that for our Bengals.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-20-2020, 10:46 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: What about the most recent 8 games for each and what about trends?  TDs?

What about even MORE recent 6 games for each and trends? TDs?

John Ross: 17/236/0
AJ Green: 30/475/2

Too far forward? How about the last 16 games.

John Ross: 46/637/8
AJ Green: 77/1079/9

Too far back?

.... Or do we need it not too far forward or too far back but JUUUUUUST enough that you can make this absurd attempt to turn a non-debate into a debate?



- - - - - - - - -
It's like some people never learned after the whole "Mohamed Sanu had 4 TD in his final 3 games as a rookie! Projected over 16 games that's 21 TD! And he was a rookie!"... and then 7 years later he's yet to ever score more than 5 TD in a year.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(08-20-2020, 03:43 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: What about even MORE recent 6 games for each and trends? TDs?

John Ross: 17/236/0
AJ Green: 30/475/2

Too far forward? How about the last 16 games.

John Ross: 46/637/8
AJ Green: 77/1079/9

[/b]Too far back?[/b]

.... Or do we need it not too far forward or too far back but JUUUUUUST enough that you can make this absurd attempt to turn a non-debate into a debate?



- - - - - - - - -
It's like some people never learned after the whole "Mohamed Sanu had 4 TD in his final 3 games as a rookie! Projected over 16 games that's 21 TD! And he was a rookie!"... and then 7 years later he's yet to ever score more than 5 TD in a year.

Ah, the Goldilocks debate. Gotta look at the stats just right.

[*SHRacerX*]

(08-20-2020, 02:25 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: So are we supposed to account for trends and recent history or are we supposed to ignore trends and recent history?

Both have recent injury history, but the trends are related to production.  It is not asking:  "Who is more likely to produce of a 16 game season", but "If both were healthy for a 16 game season, who would have more production"?  We can't control if either is injured, but given that control, who would produce more today.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(08-20-2020, 03:28 PM)muskiesfan Wrote: You can say whatever you want about "the almighty AJ Green" because I didn't put it like that. On this team, that's fitting. Ross is not in the same conversation as Green unless you're talking about them being teammates. Ross is nowhere near Green's level. That's not a knock on Ross, there aren't too many people on Green's level.

You asked for opinions. You even stated in another thread that you knew you'd get killed for it. So I appreciate what you're doing. You took a very unpopular stance and are explaining your side. That's fine. You can say whatever you want, but it won't change my opinion on the matter. If I could choose which WR I would want to play all 16 games, it's Green. In my opinion, Ross wouldn't be my second or third pick either.

I will say this thread is slightly better than the thread saying Burrow will have a better career than Mahomes.

Dude, no where did I say anyone was wrong...I tried to counter arguments by getting them to look at other information or perspectives.  It isn't a right or wrong argument because you could never guarantee which is more likely to be healthy.   I think Ross is a lot more important to this team than he is given credit for.  

Looking at Green's most recent season, 2018 (two years ago), he had two games where he exceeded 100 yards receiving.  14-117 against KC and 10-112 against Miami.  

Last year, in 8 games, Ross had two games where he exceeded 100 yards receiving.  12-158 against Seattle, and 8-112 against SF.  I won't get in to the argument did it against better defenses.

Ross was targeted 56 times for 506 yards and had a YPR of 18.1, 3 TDs
AJ Green was targeted 77 times for 694 yards and a YPR of 15.1. 6 TDs

Even though this most recent example showed Green had more TDs, Ross averages a TD every 5 receptions, and it shows Ross to provide more explosive plays.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(08-20-2020, 02:31 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: And why does he have a better resume?  Because he is a better WR over a longer period of time at the highest level of competition. Turf toe and ruptured ligaments aren’t age related injuries. So if they’re both out there for 16 games I’m gonna to pick the guy he has proven he can produce year after year rather than the WR that had two good games in 3 years versus back ups during garbage time.

What a load of garbage.  

I agree with your sentiment of why you think Green will produce more,  but this is just garbage.