Nervous? Not Joe

[fredtoast]

(08-21-2020, 12:44 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I wonder what else might contribute to that...

Burrow was the QB in 2018 when they only had 17 passing tds.  Considering that was his 4th year as a college QB I kind of doubt that the 350% increase in passing tds was due to his iindividual improvement from 2018 to 2019.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(08-21-2020, 12:54 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Burrow was the QB in 2018 when they only had 17 passing tds.  Considering that was his 4th year as a college QB I kind of doubt that the 350% increase in passing tds was due to his iindividual improvement from 2018 to 2019.

Only 2 years as a starter. And the progression was already happening towards the end of his first season. Hard to increase your numbers when you’re not even playing.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(08-21-2020, 12:44 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I wonder what else might contribute to that...

While there absolutely will be a dropoff from Burrow to Brennan, Myles is not that bad; I can definitely see a 30 TD, 13 INT (over 12 games) for him, which is still damn good.

Also a bit more of a runner than Burrow.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-21-2020, 12:28 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I am not an LSU fan, but I am a big SEC fan so I know a good bit about LSU.  I was not familiar with the exact numbers, but i know that for years LSU was mainly a run first offense.  They did start throwing more in 2018 when Ensminger arrived, but they were not that good.  They only had 17 passing tds in 2018. And according to the stats you posted their total offense numbers actually dropped in yards per game from 2017 to 2018. 

But when Brady showed up in 2019 their QB had one of the greatest seasons in college football history.  And I have a strong feeling they are going to drop back down to about the 2018 level next year.

Fred, you try and paint the picture that Burrow is some kind of freak, some kind of giant anomaly, some kind of something so far from the ordinary that there has to be reasons other than him just being good.

When the fact is you'd run a brand new pen out of ink before you could write down all the QB's who took a big jump in ability, poise, stats, in their last season before being drafted.

[fredtoast]

(08-21-2020, 10:26 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: When the fact is you'd run a brand new pen out of ink before you could write down all the QB's who took a big jump in ability, poise, stats, in their last season before being drafted.

Correct, and many times these "one year wonders" are the ones who don't fare so well in the NFL.

But the thing I keep hearing about Burrow is how he is a "natural" leader who will fix all our problems by just giving receivers a "talking to" and "holding them accountable".  If it is some natural innate ability then he should have had it in his 4th year as a college QB.

[fredtoast]

Let me make one thing clear. I watched what Burrow did last year and I am very impressed. I think he will be a fine QB. But some people are just over the top with their expectations. When I start disagreeing with these people who are over the top it sounds like I am trying to trash Burrow, but I am not really.

Same thing often happens when I start disagreeing with someone who claims a player or coach is garbage, or the worst in the league. It ends up sounding like I am in love with an average player.

People accuse me of being a contrarian, but I am actually more a voice of reason. Too many fans lock themselves into extreme positions. Every player is either a super star or total garbage.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(08-21-2020, 10:46 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Let me make one thing clear. I watched what Burrow did last year and I am very impressed. I think he will be a fine QB. But some people are just over the top with their expectations. When I start disagreeing with these people who are over the top it sounds like I am trying to trash Burrow, but I am not really.

Same thing often happens when I start disagreeing with someone who claims a player or coach is garbage, or the worst in the league. It ends up sounding like I am in love with an average player.

People accuse me of being a contrarian, but I am actually more a voice of reason. Too many fans lock themselves into extreme positions. Every player is either a super star or total garbage.

Keep telling yourself that lol. We know damn well you argue just to argue some times.

[fredtoast]

(08-21-2020, 12:04 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Keep telling yourself that lol. We know damn well you argue just to argue some times.

Actually the problem is that some people's egos are so large that they can not believe anyone could possibly disagree with their opinion because they are never wrong about anything.

[*Synric*]

(08-21-2020, 10:46 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Let me make one thing clear.  I watched what Burrow did last year and I am very impressed.  I  think he will be a fine QB.  But some people are just over the top with their expectations.  When I start disagreeing with these people who are over the top it sounds like I am trying to trash Burrow, but I am not really.

Same thing often happens when I start disagreeing with someone who claims a player or coach is garbage, or the worst in the league.  It ends up sounding like I am in love with an average player.

People accuse me of being a contrarian, but I am actually more a voice of reason.  Too many fans lock themselves into extreme positions.  Every player is either a super star or total garbage.

Do you know the difference between a guguy like Joe Burrow and guys like Trevor Lawrence/Tua Tagovolia?

[*Nately120*]

(08-21-2020, 12:12 PM)Synric Wrote: Do you know the difference between a guguy like Joe Burrow and guys like Trevor Lawrence/Tua Tagovolia?

Is this a dirty joke?  I'm waiting for the punchline.

[fredtoast]

(08-21-2020, 12:12 PM)Synric Wrote: Do you know the difference between a guguy like Joe Burrow and guys like Trevor Lawrence/Tua Tagovolia?

Burrow is a "one year wonder" while the other two have been good for their entire careers.

[*Synric*]

(08-21-2020, 12:53 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Burrow is a "one year wonder" while the other two have been good for their entire careers.

Burrow had a solid first year in 2018 that took him from an unknown to a draftable prospect so no he is not a "one year wonder".


Lawrence and Tua both went to high end expensive Sports Academys like IMG Academy in Florida. They were getting professional training before ever setting a foot on a college field that raises their "ratings" in a media setting. Burrow worked his way up from a public school high school QB. 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-21-2020, 12:14 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Fiesta Bowls are nice. National championships and record setting seasons are much nicer.

You mean like the National Championship the 2014 team won with the same players as the 2015 team? The only significant difference between the 2014 team and the 2015 team was they lost Devin Smith to the draft (they only had 5 players drafted that year because all their better players weren't eligible yet). That's pretty impressive despite having two QBs who combined for 0 NFL starts, 1 NFL game played, and only 11 passes attempted.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(08-20-2020, 04:45 PM)odysseus32 Wrote: So, I think this is where the two camps on Burrow diverge.  I had MANY arguments with people on TigerDroppings during the off-season between 2018 and 2019 that Burrow was in fact a very good QB.  I predicted that he would throw for 3500 and 30 TDs in 2019.  I slotted him as, I think, the 3rd best SEC QB behind Tua and Fromm.  My personal thoughts were that it was evident that he can manage and take over a game.  He did it against Auburn, UGA, Texas A&M (in losing fashion), and UCF.  There were many instances in 2018 where you saw that he had it, he was just in a new offense.  I was drooling waiting to see him with a full off-season with his WRs under his belt, as well as a year+ in the same environment.  I had no clue he was going to do what he did last season, but to say that nobody thought he was good before 2019 is false.  A handful of us over on Tigerdroppings knew he was good, we just didn't understand just how unshakable he would be when put in the right situations.

But I can understand how people get the impression that he was average in 2018, because statistically he was.  But his on the field play week in and week out told an entirely different story.

Nice post Odysseus. Well said.

We all know LSU was stacked and he did have a very good O-line (although I don't believe as good in pass pro) along with 
great Receivers but its not like he sucked in 2018. Burrow just got better and better as the season went on and it led to the 
most impressive season by a QB in college history. He will need help here as well.

Thankfully I think he has it if we can stay relatively healthy.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(08-20-2020, 03:59 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I agree with the NFL free market that said Vigil was more valuable than Bynes.

I agree with the NFL front offices in Tennessee and Dallas who said Su'a-Filo was not starter quality and the NFL free market that said he was less valuable than Jon Miller.

And before you start accusing me of having a crush on Vigil and Miller I will repeat that I have no problem with either one of them being replaced.  I just wish we had signed upgrades instead of cheaper replacements.

I shouldn't be called a "troll" just because I don't buy into all the groupthink around here.

Never called you a troll.

[fredtoast]

(08-21-2020, 03:52 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Never called you a troll.

No.  That was Bengalfan74.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(08-21-2020, 04:14 PM)fredtoast Wrote: No.  That was Bengalfan74.

To be technical he didn't call you a troll either. He said you were trolling.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-20-2020, 04:45 PM)odysseus32 Wrote: So, I think this is where the two camps on Burrow diverge.  I had MANY arguments with people on TigerDroppings during the off-season between 2018 and 2019 that Burrow was in fact a very good QB.  I predicted that he would throw for 3500 and 30 TDs in 2019.  I slotted him as, I think, the 3rd best SEC QB behind Tua and Fromm.  My personal thoughts were that it was evident that he can manage and take over a game.  He did it against Auburn, UGA, Texas A&M (in losing fashion), and UCF.  There were many instances in 2018 where you saw that he had it, he was just in a new offense.  I was drooling waiting to see him with a full off-season with his WRs under his belt, as well as a year+ in the same environment.  I had no clue he was going to do what he did last season, but to say that nobody thought he was good before 2019 is false.  A handful of us over on Tigerdroppings knew he was good, we just didn't understand just how unshakable he would be when put in the right situations.

But I can understand how people get the impression that he was average in 2018, because statistically he was.  But his on the field play week in and week out told an entirely different story.

Yep

Some live and die by stats alone, they can't see the forest for the trees. They gauge how good an NFL player is by his paycheck, it's hilarious. If a player is cut by a team he's no good and so on. 

LSU had been a run first, field position, defense, team since F.D.R. was in office. And it took Burrow and Co. some time to get out of that groove. The narrative that Burrow was just this garden variety ho hum QB in 2018 is just incorrect if you actually care to look instead of jumping on the band wagon.

[fredtoast]

(08-21-2020, 05:37 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Some live and die by stats alone, they can't see the forest for the trees.

Yep.  I know.  How crazy is it to actually judge a player by how he produces on the field.  No one does that.

(08-21-2020, 05:37 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote:  They gauge how good an NFL player is by his paycheck, it's hilarious. 

I can't stop laughing at the people who think NFL teams pay the better players more than the bad ones.  What a ridiculous concept.

(08-21-2020, 05:37 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote:  If a player is cut by a team he's no good and so on. 

Seriously, what kind of rube would believe that the ability to make an NFL roster has anything to do with how good a player is.  Just look at the long list of amazing players who don't produce on the field, don't get paid in free agency, and don't make NFL rosters.  Who would be stupid enough to think you can judge a player by any of those standards?

(08-21-2020, 05:37 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote:  The narrative that Burrow was just this garden variety ho hum QB in 2018 is just incorrect if you actually care to look instead of jumping on the band wagon.

Right, I mean just look at all the posts YOU made after the 2018 season about how Joe Burrow was going to be the greatest QB in the country in 2019 based on all the LSU games YOU watched.  

I remember how all the college football analysts and NFL experts who actually scout and break down film predicted that he would be the #1 overall pick in 2020 immediately after the end of the 2018 season.

[LSU Tiger]

Steelers/LSU fan here, coming in peace because I love Joe Burrow.

I love him so much I want him to light it up with y'all.

Anyone saying he was "bad" in 2018 or was a one year wonder did not watch Joe Burrow play in 2018 (which, by the way, was his first year as a starter, in what happens to be the toughest conference in college football).

The offense in his first year was stale, outdated, power toss type offense. Nevertheless, he showed flashes in the first part of the season (Ole Miss game for example).

But something clicked for him after the Alabama game. After that game (so, the final four of the season) his stats:

81/121, 1167 yards, 10 PTDs, 3 RTD, 1 INT. What does that normalize over a 15 game season?

304/454, 67%, 4,376 yards (9.64 ypa), 59 total TDs, 4 INTs.

What were his actual stats in 2019?

402/527, 76.3%, 5671 yards (10.8 y/a), 65 total TDs, 6 ints

While obviously he improved in 2019 (in addition to the modernization of our offense), it's silly to pretend he just came out of nowhere. He was playing at this level for the last 4 games of his first year as a starter.

Y'all can look up the numbers yourself, so I'm not telling you anything new, but the naysayers I've seen around here relying on "one hit wonder" did not watch him in 2018. I knew he'd be great in 2019 (though not as great as he ended up) based on his Fiesta Bowl performance alone. I texted my college buddies after his Texas game that he should be a Heisman contender.

Complaints about his arm strength are overblown. He is hyper accurate, and fit it into insane windows with regularity in college. He's not Mahomes arm strength, but he's not Chad Pennington either.

He's ultra competitive. He's confident. He's a leader. He's everything you want in a QB.

Could he bust? Sure. But there's nothing about him that would lead me to believe he will.

Really rooting for him to dominate with y'all.