Auden Tate building on from last year

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-26-2020, 04:40 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Yes he was and I was a Dalton supporter, just have to tell it like it is.

I was an AD supporter as well. His last couple seasons though I started losing faith and it got bad by his benching.

I'm very anxious to see what Burrow can do with Tate.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(08-26-2020, 05:58 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I was an AD supporter as well. His last couple seasons though I started losing faith and it got bad by his benching.

I'm very anxious to see what Burrow can do with Tate.

Same and just hope AJ and Ross can stay healthy so Burrow has all his weapons at his disposal.

Could be an amazing year if this happens.

[Whatever]

(08-26-2020, 01:58 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: I agree, but that doesn't take away your accuracy. He was highly inaccurate the last couple years.

Andy was never a great arm talent.  He needs to set up his feet properly and use good mechanics to deliver the ball accurately. 

When Andy is at his best, he reads the defense presnap, identifies the best matchup, and gets the ball out quickly before the rush can get to him and affect his throwing mechanics.  If his intended receiver can't win that matchup and get open, the rush can affect his mechanics as he holds the ball waiting for them to come open or scans the field for another target.  He has never really shown the ability or willingness to try and stick a ball in a spot where only his guy can get it against tight coverage.  

My thing is this, Andy Dalton is one of the three greatest QB's in the franchise's history by any measure.  He has proven he can play at a high level with a good supporting cast around him.  Making him a scapegoat for the production of a WR that they took a 7th round flyer on and looked awful as a rookie is really thin.  

[fredtoast]

(08-27-2020, 01:03 PM)Whatever Wrote:   Making him a scapegoat for the production of a WR that they took a 7th round flyer on and looked awful as a rookie is really thin.  

Too bad Tate didn't have the same QBs who threw to these guys.

Tyler Boyd.....60.8 catch %
Erickson.........55.1
Eifert..............68.3
Uzomah.........67.5

[impactplaya]

Everyones catch % will improve this year.
If Tyler Boyd only caught 60% of the passes throw his way
Thats more indictive of the QBs shortcomings than Boyds.
Let's not forget Tate missed the last 3 games.
The QB play was better in that last month of the season

[fredtoast]

(08-27-2020, 01:23 PM)impactplaya Wrote: Let's not forget Tate missed the last 3 games.
The QB play was better in that last month of the season

Bengals completion percentage was LOWER over the last three games (57.4%) than over the first 13 (57.9%)

[Whatever]

(08-27-2020, 01:23 PM)impactplaya Wrote: Everyones catch % will improve this year.
If Tyler Boyd only caught 60%  of the passes throw his way
Thats more indictive of the QBs shortcomings than Boyds.
Let's not forget Tate missed the last 3 games.
The QB play was better in that last month of the season

Boyd's catch % is actually not bad compared to players with similar target volume.  For example, he's better than Jarvis Landry, OBJ, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, DK Metcalf, Michael Gallup, Robbie Anderson, Mike Williams, etc.  I mean, Julio Jones is at 63%.

Tate has the worst catch % of the Top 100 pass catchers in both Catches and Targets.  Trying to blame that on the QB doesn't work because he has had the second worst catch % on the Bengals each of the last two years.  His catch % is bad, no matter whether you're comparing him to his teammates or the rest of the league.

I expect he will show improvement because Burrow displayed exceptional ball placement in college, which is what guys who struggle to get open need to help compensate.  

[Au165]

(08-27-2020, 02:02 PM)Whatever Wrote: Boyd's catch % is actually not bad compared to players with similar target volume.  For example, he's better than Jarvis Landry, OBJ, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, DK Metcalf, Michael Gallup, Robbie Anderson, Mike Williams, etc.  I mean, Julio Jones is at 63%.

Tate has the worst catch % of the Top 100 pass catchers in both Catches and Targets.  Trying to blame that on the QB doesn't work because he has had the second worst catch % on the Bengals each of the last two years.  His catch % is bad, no matter whether you're comparing him to his teammates or the rest of the league.

I expect he will show improvement because Burrow displayed exceptional ball placement in college, which is what guys who struggle to get open need to help compensate.  

We have done this a bunch, if you look at his advanced analytics he was thrown far lower quality passes than most the guys on the team and compared to the league as a whole. That usually gets someone to respond he must be a poor route runner, which isn't true when you turn on the tape. To me it comes down to the routes he was asked to run were usually lower percentage throws (no screens, drags, etc) but may have also been Andy's thought process of making him "go get it" because he can and usually those throws are safer in terms of interceptions if they are not caught. When you actually watch all of his targets the ball is just never put on him or in front, it is really odd to see.

Before we get there I guess I'll add the stats:

Player Target Quality Rating League Rank
Auden Tate 4.4 97
Tyler Boyd 5.2 62
John Ross 7.3 8

Player Catchable Target Rate League Rank
Auden Tate 65.4% 100
Tyler Boyd 76.9% 58
John Ross 78.6% 44

This is a conversation I have gone round and round on probably 3 or 4 times here. I usually end up posting a video clip of all his targets in the Ravens game that showed him having to leave his feet on almost every throw because the ball was placed so god awfully. I then usually follow that up with Buffalo where at least one interception was the result of an absolutely horribly placed ball to him.

[fredtoast]

(08-27-2020, 02:42 PM)Au165 Wrote: That usually gets someone to respond he must be a poor route runner, which isn't true when you turn on the tape.

Nothing about the tape will tell you if he ran a good route or not.  QBs throws are always going to look bad if the receiver is not where he is supposed to be.  NFL QBs don't throw to a receiver.  They throw to the spot where the receiver is supposed to be.

[Au165]

(08-27-2020, 03:08 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Nothing about the tape will tell you if he ran a good route or not.

Is this a serious take? Yes, you 100% can. 

What makes a route "good" Fred?

[fredtoast]

(08-27-2020, 03:26 PM)Au165 Wrote: Is this a serious take? Yes, you 100% can. 

What makes a route "good" Fred?

The receiver gets to the spot he is supposed to be at the right time.  Also needs to get in and out of cuts quickly to get separation.

How does the film tell you where Tate is supposed to be?  If a throw is high how do you tell when the receiver is to blame for running a poor route or the QB is to blame for making a bad pass.  What specifically do you look at to tell the difference?

[Au165]

(08-27-2020, 03:30 PM)fredtoast Wrote: The receiver gets to the spot he is supposed to be at the right time.  Also needs to get in and out of cuts quickly to get separation.

How does the film tell you where Tate is supposed to be?  If a throw is high how do you tell when the receiver is to blame for running a poor route or the QB is to blame for making a bad pass.  What specifically do you look at to tell the difference?

How do scouts know a guy is a good route runner? Because there are relatively universal standards for route running. There are rules to stemming and stacking receivers. There are relatively common depths that routes are supposed to be ran at. There are slight adjustments that WR's and QB's make in terms of depth, but it's going to be something consistent. So if you run a quick out at 5 yards for instance, you are going to run that quick out at 5 each time with the same QB because it replicates the same target point.

Throws behind on rhythm/timing throws are caused by two things, the QB's bad mechanics or a shorter than expected route. A throw that is way out in front on a rythm/timing pass is caused by two things, the QB's bad mechanics or a deeper than expected route. A throw that is too high to get hands-on at all is simply poor QB play. The ball should be between the numbers and eyes, on most timing passes and if it is above the head of a receiver then a half a yard either way on the depth isn't the issue here.

Dan Orlovsky did a good breakdown of Eagles recievers last year where he was watching tape and explaining how the recievers were leaving Wentz out to dry often. He used the relatively universal standards I mentioned and would explain that even given some leeway you can tell this or that is an issue.

[fredtoast]

(08-27-2020, 04:03 PM)Au165 Wrote: Throws behind on rhythm/timing throws are caused by two things, the QB's bad mechanics or a shorter than expected route. A throw that is way out in front on a rythm/timing pass is caused by two things, the QB's bad mechanics or a deeper than expected route.

So how do you tell who to blame?

How do they rate all these "catchable passes" when they don't know who messed up?

[*bfine32*]

(08-27-2020, 01:11 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Too bad Tate didn't have the same QBs who threw to these guys.

Tyler Boyd.....60.8 catch %
Erickson.........55.1
Eifert..............68.3
Uzomah.........67.5

You never answered where Boyd ranked in the 8 WRs who had at least 90 catches. 

[Au165]

(08-27-2020, 05:21 PM)fredtoast Wrote: So how do you tell who to blame?

How do they rate all these "catchable passes" when they don't know who messed up?

When you watch the tape? You check the route first then you check the end zone view on the QB.

NFL uses tracking of the ball to the player Per their tracking data. PFF uses a similar system as what I told you. Interestingly they gave him a 70 grade last year which is solid, seems high for someone with such a low “catch %”.

[fredtoast]

(08-27-2020, 05:25 PM)bfine32 Wrote: You never answered where Boyd ranked in the 8 WRs who had at least 90 catches. 

He was 43rd out of the 65 that had at least 40 receptions.  That is the same group that included Tate.  Don't know what 90 catches has to do with anything since we are discussing Tate.

[fredtoast]

(08-27-2020, 05:32 PM)Au165 Wrote: When you watch the tape? You check the route first then you check the end zone view on the QB.

And how does this tell you if the receiver ran a bad route or if the QB made a bad pass.

Receivers are supposed to adjust their routes due to coverage, so how do you know exactly where they are supposed to be?

[*bfine32*]

(08-27-2020, 05:36 PM)fredtoast Wrote: He was 43rd out of the 65 that had at least 40 receptions.  That is the same group that included Tate.  Don't know what 90 catches has to do with anything since we are discussing Tate.

I don't blame you for not answering the question posed. I thought we were discussing catch percentage and where they ranked compared to their peers. Seemed important to you earlier. 

[*bfine32*]

(08-27-2020, 05:38 PM)fredtoast Wrote: And how does this tell you if the receiver ran a bad route or if the QB made a bad pass.

Receivers are supposed to adjust their routes due to coverage, so how do you know exactly where they are supposed to be?

Because Andy Dalton is now a back up in Dallas playing for peanuts. 

[Au165]

(08-27-2020, 05:38 PM)fredtoast Wrote: And how does this tell you if the receiver ran a bad route or if the QB made a bad pass.

Receivers are supposed to adjust their routes due to coverage, so how do you know exactly where they are supposed to be?

Fred, it would be easier for you to read a book rather than me go on and on breaking down nuances. Your premise here that you keep defending is that you can not tell if a route was run poorly on tape, which would mean every college scout and analyst is looking at what when they comment on route running? If you believe that catch % is a legit stat that is fine, most don’t including PFF (at least the simple formula your using here). His routes are fine, his catching is fine, Auden Tate will be just fine.

Have a good one.