I've Got Something to Say

[Wes Mantooth]

(10-22-2015, 12:13 AM)West Union KennyG Wrote: I hear this a lot around here.  Seriously, what does it mean?  Does it mean he's playing elite right now but you don't believe he will continue playing like this?  Or does it mean even if he's playing elite for a long time, you don't say elite until after such and such time, which means he is still elite before you're willing to call him that if he does indeed play at that level for x period of time?  Or is there something else meant by this?  I don't get it and I'm just trying to understand.  

I can't speak for what others mean when they say it, but the way I think of it is pretty simple.

Andy Dalton is playing at an elite level right now.  We need to look no further than the numbers to agree on this.  But, simply put, I don't think it's sustainable.  While someone like Aaron Rodgers can sustain an elite level of play, over not only single seasons, but a run of multiple years, I'm not at all sure Andy can.  And, at the very least, he needs to do it for a longer stretch than 6 games to earn the title of an elite QB.  That takes time and proven, sustained results.

Think of it this way, a guy like Jay Bruce can go on absolute tear.  Say a .350 average and 8 homers in a single month.  That's playing at elite level.  That's slugging the shit out of the ball.  I'm going to need to see more of that, over several years, to consider him a modern day Mickey Mantle.

IMO, the words great, elite, the phrase "the next *insert HOF player here* seem to be tossed around far too often.  Acknowledging the fact that Andy is playing great, while not ready to call him great, seems entirely fair and like a perfectly rational thing to say to me.  Hopefully after the explanation you agree. I never intended to slight Andy's play in the least.

[GreenCornBengal]

(10-22-2015, 12:53 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I can't speak for what others mean when they say it, but the way I think of it is pretty simple.

Andy Dalton is playing at an elite level right now.  We need to look no further than the numbers to agree on this.  But, simply put, I don't think it's sustainable.  While someone like Aaron Rodgers can sustain an elite level of play, over not only single seasons, but a run of multiple years, I'm not at all sure Andy can.  And, at the very least, he needs to do it for a longer stretch than 6 games to earn the title of an elite QB.  That takes time and proven, sustained results.

Think of it this way, a guy like Jay Bruce can go on absolute tear.  Say a .350 average and 8 homers in a single month.  That's playing at elite level.  That's slugging the shit out of the ball.  I'm going to need to see more of that, over several years, to consider him a modern day Mickey Mantle.

IMO, the words great, elite, the phrase "the next *insert HOF player here* seem to be tossed around far too often.  Acknowledging the fact that Andy is playing great, while not ready to call him great, seems entirely fair and like a perfectly rational thing to say to me.  Hopefully after the explanation you agree.  I never intended to slight Andy's play in the least.

I've agreed with you this entire post.. Andy playing at an elite level doesn't make him elite. Just curious though, what makes you not at all sure that Andy can sustain his level of play?

[*SHRacerX*]

(10-21-2015, 11:29 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: And here's where the disconnect lies.  While you have thought that he's been average or above all along, or in entirety, someone like myself will be quick to remind you of last year.  Now I guess you can choose to debate that idea, but I'm not sure you can just gloss over it and it attribute it to blind hate either.

Just from a number standpoint, here's where he's ranked in QB rating in each of his 4 years:

2011 (Rookie Year) - 20
2012 - 13
2013 - 15
2014 - 25

Composite average - 18

Now, I don't really feel like I actually engaging in an actual debate about the worth of these numbers along with the relevance of rookie seasons, injuries, loads of talent, loss of talent, playcalling, etc.  The only point of this is to illustrate that the idea that he has always been average or above is simply not true.  He was nowhere near average last year.  Not from a rating standpoint, not from a yardage standpoint, nor from a TD or INT standpoint.

Without overcomplicating my stance let me just say that my opinion has always come primarily from simply watching the game.  Numbers aside, what I saw shaped my opinion.  And that opinion was that Andy Dalton was an average at best QB, who at times was elevated by above average talent around him.  That was my take. 

I currently think, while some of his atributes are far from elite, he is making up for that with stellar decision making.  I've seen him numerous time make the smart play, that many QB's in this league don't make.  I think he seems more poised and patient in the pocket.  I also get the impression that he's just all together more confidence and comfortable in the pocket.  He has made a leap that I didn't think he was capable of making.  I've never seen this level of play sustained for than a couple of games.  Until now.

While I certainly don't think I was wrong on everything I've said or thought previously, and I think I was fair, I was wrong on Andy's ceiling.  He is currently proving me wrong on that.  As well as he is proving me wrong the decision to give him an early deal.

The problem I have with using stats or simple "rankings" for a QB is that they will pull out one or two specific measures that either support our counter another argument.  I'm not sure if that rank is QB rating, QBR, etc.  It doesn't really matter because it only takes a small handful of things in to effect.  What if I replied with win totals over the past four year?  Top 4-5 I would think.  Or what about that "uncommon opponents" stat they showed before the Buffalo game?  The win/loss for teams outside your division?  He was something crazy like 23-4?  Yes, over the past four years he has played in the toughest division in football.  Brady and Luck play in divisions where 6 wins was nearly a given. 

And I strongly agree with WHO DEY WHO that so much of the disdain for Dalton has been the playoff performances.  Which, I agree with the vast majority, that he played poorly in the first two.  I will not kill him for his performances in the third and fourth game whatsoever. 

The bottom line(as you stated) is simply watching him play and comparing him to others that you watch play.   I have seen him make bad mistakes, and I have seen him make incredible plays.  I hear arm strength questioned, but I never see that when I watch him play.  Each year, he has shown a steady improvement over the previous year, with the exception being the first year with Hue which was also a MASH unit of injuries.  He has continued upon the trajectory that he had displayed the first three seasons.  Watching the likes of Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, and Ryan Tannehill (those that are closest to him in terms of experience), I see Dalton making better decisions and overall playing the position better than any of them.  It isn't even close.  I think his single greatest achievement this season is that he has seemingly overcome his AJ addiction, where he would force the ball to him when he wasn't open.  Matt Stafford has yet to figure this out. 

I don't blame people for not wanting to anoint him the next great QB since there have been great runs in the past, only to suffer huge disappointments later.  And, yes, it is only six games.  It doesn't matter if people are "all in" or not, and nationally the tag line (almost, but not quite as tired as "six rings") will be their playoff history until they change that.

I think Mo Egger nailed it when he described the 1990 Cincinnati Reds team that went wire-to-wire.  The Reds had not done much of anything for a long time.  They had a young team that started strong and was exciting to watch.  He brought up specific things about that season:  The Nasty Boys, the 9-0 start, Lou Pinella launching a base in to the outfield, etc.  He described the pure joy of that season (it is my favorite Reds team also) and how much he would have missed out on if he would have just said "well, they won't continue this" or "they will get killed in the playoffs". 

Everyone is entitled to their opinions about Dalton.  I would just hope that everyone would actually enjoy what is happening rather than waiting for the other shoe to drop.

[*SHRacerX*]

(10-21-2015, 02:23 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Andy has played absolutely great to start the season.  No doubt.  But Andy is not great (elite) yet.  If you're building a team, and you start going down the list of the guys you want at QB, Rodgers and Brady are going to top that list right now.  Most likely guys like Rivers, Rapes McGee and Brees and going to go next.  And there's a very good chance Andy goes in the next group, among names like Ryan and Wilson.  There is nothing wrong with saying that.  It's no knock on Andy. 

Great start.  Good QB.  Can we all just agree on that? 

I would say that if you are calling "great" and "elite" the same thing, and you are going to define that as (roughly) the top 3 in their position group, then based on their careers to date Andy is not elite.

However, if you base your evaluation on his contemporaries that have similar years of experience in the NFL (Wilson, Luck, Tannehill, and maybe Matt Ryan and Matt Stafford) then I would absolutely have to put him in the top 3 of that group as things sit today. 

Maybe it is the red hair.  Maybe it is the fact that he isn't 6'5" and 235 lbs.  I bet Drew Brees had a lot of this when he was getting started, but he overcame it.  Andy Dalton is playing great QB, and is the best VALUE in the NFL at the position. 

[Luvnit2]

(10-21-2015, 07:10 PM)Bryan Wrote: 28 million and 32 million dollar cap hits are 50% of Andy's cap hits? Are you sure you've got that right?

Yes

2016 AD is 13.1 and Flacco is 28 million
2017 AD is 15.7 and Flacco is 32 million

Actually AD is less than 50% of Flacco's cap hits in the future

Also, just an FYI he is 9.6 million this year which is also a steal for us

[djs7685]

(10-22-2015, 09:37 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Yes

2016 AD is 13.1 and Flacco is 28 million
2017 AD is 15.7 and Flacco is 32 million

Actually AD is less than 50% of Flacco's cap hits in the future

Also, just an FYI he is 9.6 million this year which is also a steal for us

You said it backwards in the previous posts, hence Bryan being confused.

The way you worded it had Flacco being paid much less than Andy, but I knew what you meant.

One thing that you and I have always agreed on was how good the Andy deal is compared to other QB contracts around the league. He was getting paid the going rate for an "average QB", the deal had some outs if he shit the bed in 2015 and/or 2016, and the way he's playing right now just makes it insane value.

[Luvnit2]

(10-22-2015, 09:44 AM)djs7685 Wrote: You said it backwards in the previous posts, hence Bryan being confused.

The way you worded it had Flacco being paid much less than Andy, but I knew what you meant.

One thing that you and I have always agreed on was how good the Andy deal is compared to other QB contracts around the league. He was getting paid the going rate for an "average QB", the deal had some outs if he shit the bed in 2015 and/or 2016, and the way he's playing right now just makes it insane value.

Old age, my apologies I worded my first post incorrectly.

[WhoDeyWho]

(10-22-2015, 09:37 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Yes

2016 AD is 13.1 and Flacco is 28 million
2017 AD is 15.7 and Flacco is 32 million

Actually AD is less than 50% of Flacco's cap hits in the future

Also, just an FYI he is 9.6 million this year which is also a steal for us

But it was the Bengals who were crazy for signing Dalton to a reasonable deal that is beginning to look like a steal.  

[Luvnit2]

(10-22-2015, 09:49 AM)WhoDeyWho Wrote: But it was the Bengals who were crazy for signing Dalton to a reasonable deal that is beginning to look like a steal.  

It was a great deal as the Bengals also have outs if AD did not progress.

In contrast, the Ravens took a risk and waited to sign Flacco, he won the Super Bowl and I have posted his cap hits coming soon.

The Bengals FO is extremely smart and fair with contracts. I think our players and agents know it. I hope it gives us an edge in the future in signing others on our team and maybe a key free agent if it is needed to get us over the top.

[djs7685]

(10-22-2015, 09:48 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Old age, my apologies I worded my first post incorrectly.

All good, Flacco's cap hits are huge over the next few years so you obviously meant it the other way around.

(10-22-2015, 09:49 AM)WhoDeyWho Wrote: But it was the Bengals who were crazy for signing Dalton to a reasonable deal that is beginning to look like a steal.  

(10-22-2015, 09:58 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: It was a great deal as the Bengals also have outs if AD did not progress.

In contrast, the Ravens took a risk and waited to sign Flacco, he won the Super Bowl and I have posted his cap hits coming soon.

The Bengals FO is extremely smart and fair with contracts. I think our players and agents know it. I hope it gives us an edge in the future in signing others on our team and maybe a key free agent if it is needed to get us over the top.

The Bengals have paid their guys at fair market value for a while now. The only thing I can add is that it would be nice for them to be slightly more aggressive in free agency from time to time. They don't need to overpay guys like Mike Wallace or Ndamukong Suh, but they can't expect to consistently hit in the draft as they have recently. No team can have that kind of sustained success for tooooo long, so hopefully the FO can adjust their ways over the next couple of years. This next offseason will be very interesting with a ton of money coming off the books and quite a few Bengals UFAs. We could use a little bit of defensive help without relying on the draft. MJ is great, but he's not really an "outside guy". A.J. Hawk isn't very good. I'd be happy to see the team bring in some solid help at S and LB next offseason.

[WhoDeyWho]

(10-22-2015, 10:13 AM)djs7685 Wrote: All good, Flacco's cap hits are huge over the next few years so you obviously meant it the other way around.



The Bengals have paid their guys at fair market value for a while now. The only thing I can add is that it would be nice for them to be slightly more aggressive in free agency from time to time. They don't need to overpay guys like Mike Wallace or Ndamukong Suh, but they can't expect to consistently hit in the draft as they have recently. No team can have that kind of sustained success for tooooo long, so hopefully the FO can adjust their ways over the next couple of years. This next offseason will be very interesting with a ton of money coming off the books and quite a few Bengals UFAs. We could use a little bit of defensive help without relying on the draft. MJ is great, but he's not really an "outside guy". A.J. Hawk isn't very good. I'd be happy to see the team bring in some solid help at S and LB next offseason.

I love the way they have approached FA over the last several years:  build through the draft and compliment via FA.  If the past is any indication, they will probably try to resign their guys in FA before spending cash on outside FAs.  

[djs7685]

(10-22-2015, 10:33 AM)WhoDeyWho Wrote: I love the way they have approached FA over the last several years:  build through the draft and compliment via FA.  If the past is any indication, they will probably try to resign their guys in FA before spending cash on outside FAs.  

The last several years have been a success by them hitting on reclamation projects via FA and trade.

What would this team have looked like had Reggie Nelson, Terence Newman, and Adam Jones not become their current forms? Think about that.

The outdated, stubborn way to approach free agency seems genius in hindsight whenever we hit on 3+ big reclamation projects, don't have many injuries, and have been drafting absurdly well. The issue with that is, once we hit a rough year or two drafting and our bottom of the barrel FAs don't do much of anything, this team is going to get much, much worse.

This team has been both good and lucky, but once some of the luck runs out, they may want to consider a slightly different approach. However, at least you and the others will always be able to fall back on pointing at the 2011 Eagles as "proof" of why free agency sucks

[WhoDeyWho]

(10-22-2015, 10:59 AM)djs7685 Wrote: The last several years have been a success by them hitting on reclamation projects via FA and trade.

What would this team have looked like had Reggie Nelson, Terence Newman, and Adam Jones not become their current forms? Think about that.

The outdated, stubborn way to approach free agency seems genius in hindsight whenever we hit on 3+ big reclamation projects, don't have many injuries, and have been drafting absurdly well. The issue with that is, once we hit a rough year or two drafting and our bottom of the barrel FAs don't do much of anything, this team is going to get much, much worse.

This team has been both good and lucky, but once some of the luck runs out, they may want to consider a slightly different approach. However, at least you and the others will always be able to fall back on pointing at the 2011 Eagles as "proof" of why free agency sucks

When the "luck" runs out.  You always have FA as a fall back.  Right now, the team is putting most of it's effort in drafting talent as opposed to buying it.  When you are successful doing that it puts you at a big advantage.

And I like the reclamations projects in the sense that it is low risk, high reward potentially.  

[djs7685]

(10-22-2015, 11:27 AM)WhoDeyWho Wrote: When the "luck" runs out.  You always have FA as a fall back.  Right now, the team is putting most of it's effort in drafting talent as opposed to buying it.  When you are successful doing that it puts you at a big advantage.

And I like the reclamations projects in the sense that it is low risk, high reward potentially.  

I agree with this but I believe you're missing my issue.

Mike Brown doesn't have "FA as a fall back" like some organizations do. I'd even say our division rivals in Pittsburgh and Baltimore have been equally as stubborn and they put too much stock into just building through the draft and that's that. Those teams have quite a bit of success, but you can see what happens when they don't draft very well and still refuse to put a lot into FA (Baltimore this year, Pitt missing the playoffs 2 years straight a couple of seasons ago).

I'm just afraid that once we hit a rough patch in a draft or two and miss on reclamation projects that the organization will still refuse to go deeper in FA. This isn't my biggest concern in the world since that time is obviously not here, it's just a concern I have for the future years.

[Anderson HOF]

(10-22-2015, 12:53 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I can't speak for what others mean when they say it, but the way I think of it is pretty simple.

Andy Dalton is playing at an elite level right now.  We need to look no further than the numbers to agree on this.  But, simply put, I don't think it's sustainable.  While someone like Aaron Rodgers can sustain an elite level of play, over not only single seasons, but a run of multiple years, I'm not at all sure Andy can.  And, at the very least, he needs to do it for a longer stretch than 6 games to earn the title of an elite QB.  That takes time and proven, sustained results.

Think of it this way, a guy like Jay Bruce can go on absolute tear.  Say a .350 average and 8 homers in a single month.  That's playing at elite level.  That's slugging the shit out of the ball.  I'm going to need to see more of that, over several years, to consider him a modern day Mickey Mantle.

IMO, the words great, elite, the phrase "the next *insert HOF player here* seem to be tossed around far too often.  Acknowledging the fact that Andy is playing great, while not ready to call him great, seems entirely fair and like a perfectly rational thing to say to me.  Hopefully after the explanation you agree.  I never intended to slight Andy's play in the least.

looking at your post,, have a thought is A.Brown from Steelers elite now ? or is he average to above average and what makes him elite is Big Ben ?

Here is A. Brown stats last three games

in last three games he has 11 receptions for around 110 yards and zero TD's.    If he is an elite WR should he not have better stats than that regardless of the QB ?

[Bryan]

(10-22-2015, 09:48 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Old age, my apologies I worded my first post incorrectly.

I figured that's what you meant, just teasing.

[Wes Mantooth]

(10-22-2015, 12:33 PM)Anderson HOF Wrote: looking at your post,, have a thought is A.Brown from Steelers elite now ? or is he average to above average and what makes him elite is Big Ben ?

Here is A. Brown stats last three games

in last three games he has 11 receptions for around 110 yards and zero TD's.    If he is an elite WR should he not have better stats than that regardless of the QB ?

Yes, Antonio Brown is most definitely elite right now.  The man caught 129 balls last season, for 1,689 yards.  Those aren't just elite numbers, they're historic.  That's the 2nd most catches, EVER, in a season.  A feat that every single receiver has failed to match not named Marvin Harrison.  Not Jerry Rice, not Randy Moss, not Terrell Owens, not Tim Brown. The yardage last year was 1st overall.  The TD's second.  With the receptions obviously first.

1st in receptions, 1st in yards, 2nd in TD's.  IN A FULL SEASON.

Was it a fluke?  Well, lets look at the season before. (2013)

110 catches, 1499 yards with 8 TD's.  Good for 2nd in receptions, 2nd in yards.

What about 2012?

66 rec, 787 yards and 5 TD's. in 10 starts, which is projected at 105 rec, 1,259, and 8 TD's over a full season.

2011: 1,100 yards.

So to recap, what things can we establish from these numbers?


Elite numbers in position group: Check.
Sustained success:  Check.
Full season results: Check.

I'm not sure why you asked this, why I took the time to explain an obvious statement, or if you trying to lead this somewhere, but it's pretty simple.  Play really well for awhile.  Prove you're really, really good.  Like one of the best in the league at your spot.  Like top 3.  Then you're considered elite by most rational people.

You don't get that just taken away from you because of a 3 game stretch, while paired with the worst starter in the league.  Prior to that he had 436 yards in 3 games, on 29 balls, with 2 TD's.  To put those game averages into perspective that = a crazy 154 rec, 2,345 yard, 210 TD pace to kick of the year.

Why exactly are you penalizing him for playing with Ben Rapes-A-Ton?  I guess you might as well ding Jerry Rice too.  He's off the list, his QB was even better.  Randy Moss?  Well, he's gone because he played with a Pro Bowl QB in Culpepper and then the GOAT Tom Brady, when he did his damage.  TO?  Steve Young, Donavan McNabb Tony Romo, and Carson Palmer have an absolutely shit ton of Pro-Bowls  under their belts.  A few Lombardi's, MVP trophies, and Division Championships as well.  You could do a lot worse.

Jones-Ryan.  Bryant-Romo.  D Thomas-Manning.

Antonio Brown is most definitely elite.  Andy Dalton will be elite when he does this well for a longer amount of time.  If you have any other questions about the sky being blue or anything like that just let me know.

[Wes Mantooth]

(10-22-2015, 12:33 PM)Anderson HOF Wrote: If he is an elite WR should he not have better stats than that regardless of the QB ?

No, why?  Somebody still has to get him the ball.  I mean, unless you put a lovechild of Inspector Gadget and Calvin Johnson out there, then I think every single receiver would struggle to post big numbers in that situation.  A great receiver does make a terrible QB decent.  The reverse, maybe.

[Anderson HOF]

(10-22-2015, 02:06 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Yes, Antonio Brown is most definitely elite right now.  The man caught 129 balls last season, for 1,689 yards.  Those aren't just elite numbers, they're historic.  That's the 2nd most catches, EVER, in a season.  A feat that every single receiver has failed to match not named Marvin Harrison.  Not Jerry Rice, not Randy Moss, not Terrell Owens, not Tim Brown. The yardage last year was 1st overall.  The TD's second.  With the receptions obviously first.

1st in receptions, 1st in yards, 2nd in TD's.  IN A FULL SEASON.

Was it a fluke?  Well, lets look at the season before. (2013)

110 catches, 1499 yards with 8 TD's.  Good for 2nd in receptions, 2nd in yards.

What about 2012?

66 rec, 787 yards and 5 TD's. in 10 starts, which is projected at 105 rec, 1,259, and 8 TD's over a full season.

2011: 1,100 yards.

So to recap, what things can we establish from these numbers?


Elite numbers in position group: Check.
Sustained success:  Check.
Full season results: Check.

I'm not sure why you asked this, why I took the time to explain an obvious statement, or if you trying to lead this somewhere, but it's pretty simple.  Play really well for awhile.  Prove you're really, really good.  Like one of the best in the league at your spot.  Like top 3.  Then you're considered elite by most rational people.

You don't get that just taken away from you because of a 3 game stretch, while paired with the worst starter in the league.  Prior to that he had 436 yards in 3 games, on 29 balls, with 2 TD's.  To put those game averages into perspective that = a crazy 154 rec, 2,345 yard, 210 TD pace to kick of the year.

Why exactly are you penalizing him for playing with Ben Rapes-A-Ton?  I guess you might as well ding Jerry Rice too.  He's off the list, his QB was even better.  Randy Moss?  Well, he's gone because he played with a Pro Bowl QB in Culpepper and then the GOAT Tom Brady, when he did his damage.  TO?  Steve Young, Donavan McNabb Tony Romo, and Carson Palmer have an absolutely shit ton of Pro-Bowls  under their belts.  A few Lombardi's, MVP trophies, and Division Championships as well.  You could do a lot worse.

Jones-Ryan.  Bryant-Romo.  D Thomas-Manning.

Antonio Brown is most definitely elite.  Andy Dalton will be elite when he does this well for a longer amount of time.  If you have any other questions about the sky being blue or anything like that just let me know.

I asked this because it got me thinking about how really Dalton his 1st year and 4th year had very few overall weapons (Green aside) that I would consider really good / elite and this year with being healthy he is have a great season so far and I think it is hard to say someone is elite alone..if you look at most great players especially skilled players it takes more than them to be elite. 

and though it is a small example, the lack of production of A. Brown without Big Ben is a bit shocking and could support my post.  Imagine if Ben would be unable to play the rest of the year... and A. Brown continues to put up very weak numbers like he has since Ben got hurt.. maybe A. Brown is just a really good WR but not elite but what makes him elite is Ben...

and finally you seem a bit thin skin.. sorry if i ruffled your feathers.. relax a bit I was not questioning anything you said.. I just had a thought and asked a question that actually has some substance and thought behind it even if you seem a bit overboard on the response..  but no surprise after reading most of your other posts...

[Junglejuice]

(10-21-2015, 08:10 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: Dalton gets a nice pay increase of he wins in the playoffs or even gets a first round bye. I doubt they will rework his contract.

Making an extra million a year will not be enough.

The escalators and incentives at this point will not budge him too far up the QB pay scale.
Like I said they wont have to pay him crazy money(They wont) but I just do not think any guy who has a premier season at the most important position in football will be happy to still be paid as a bottom half of the league QB.