Top 10 Paid RBs Status Check After 2 Weeks

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

1. (0-2) Christian McCaffrey: 41 carries/156 yards (3.8 YPC)/4 TDs ... 7 catches/67 yards (9.6 AVG)/0 TDs (INJURED: Out 4-6 Weeks)
2. (1-1) Ezekiel Elliott: 44 carries/185 yards (4.2 YPC)/2 TDs ... 9 catches/64 yards (7.1 AVG)/1 TD
3. (1-1) Alvin Kamara: 25 carries/95 yards (3.8 YPC)/3 TDs ... 14 catches/146 yards (10.4 AVG)/1 TD
4. (0-2) Le'Veon Bell: 6 carries/14 yards (2.3 YPC)/0 TDs ... 2 catches/32 yards (16.0 AVG)/0 TDs (INJURED: Unknown length.)
5. (0-2) David Johnson: 22 carries/111 yards (5.0 YPC)/1 TD ... 5 catches/48 yards (9.6 AVG)/0 TDs
6. (0-2) Dalvin Cook: 26 carries/113 yards (4.3 YPC)/3 TDs ... 3 catches/6 yards (2.0 AVG)/0 TDs
7. (2-0) Derrick Henry: 56 carries/200 yards (3.6 YPC)/0 TDs ... 3 catches/15 yards (5.0 AVG)/0 TDs
8. (0-2) Joe Mixon: 35 carries/115 yards (3.3 YPC)/0 TDs ... 5 catches/42 yards (8.4 AVG)/0 TDs
9. (2-0) Kenyan Drake: 36 carries/146 yards (4.1 YPC)/1 TD ... 4 catches/14 yards (3.5 AVG)/0 TDs
10. (0-2) Melvin Gordon: 34 carries/148 yards (4.4 YPC)/1 TD ... 5 catches/22 yards (4.4 AVG)/1 TD


60% of the Top-10 are playing on an 0-2 team.
50% of the Top-10 are under 4.0 YPC.
20% of the Top-10 are on pace to reach 300 carries this year (would have been 30% if not for McCaffrey's injury.)
20% of the Top-10 are on a winning team. (Oddly neither of those two are doing particularly great with 3.6 YPC and 4.1 YPC.)
10% of the Top-10 are on a Top-10 rushing offense (he's on a 1-year transition tag).


I think this huge RB payday offseason will be viewed as one of the biggest wide spread offseason failures in very short order since back in 2011 when a handful of teams were reaching for 2nd-3rd round QBs in the 1st (the only 3 non-Pro Bowlers in the first 12 picks that year were Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, and Christian Ponder). Paying RBs is just not a huge smart money bet any more these days compared to other spots on a roster.

Can't say you're worth $12m/yr and then not produce. Any RB can produce behind a good OL. Mixon needs to pick it up.

[CorpusChristiBengal]

Zeke is the reason the Cowboys took it to OT sunday. He is somewhat overrated but still good and the 'Boys would be worse without him.
Mixon I can excuse because if you're going to pay a RB do it while your QB is on a rookie deal but he needs to pick it up.
It is pretty bad that an UDFA RB looks great though compared to some of these guys, Robinson is a beast!

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(09-23-2020, 01:24 AM)CorpusChristiBengal Wrote: Zeke is the reason the Cowboys took it to OT sunday. He is somewhat overrated but still good and the 'Boys would be worse without him.
Mixon I can excuse because if you're going to pay a RB do it while your QB is on a rookie deal but he needs to pick it up.
It is pretty bad that an UDFA RB looks great though compared to some of these guys, Robinson is a beast!

I think Zeke is a good RB, but it's hard to tell *how* good he is because he's always been behind an amazing OL.

The year before Elliott got drafted, Darren McFadden ran for 1,089 yards at 4.6 YPC for the Cowboys after averaging 3.3 YPC over the previous *three* years with Oakland... The year before that DeMarco Murray led the NFL in rushing with 1,845 yards at 4.7 YPC (also led in rushing TDs and total yards). He was Pro Bowl and All-Pro that year before leaving and was meh for a couple years before being out of the league before his age 30 season.

Doesn't help Elliott's case that his backup Tony Pollard last year had 455 rushing yards at 5.3 YPC as a 4th round rookie.

Zeke might just be a case like Bell where he's elevated by his OL.  (Though while the Cowboys OL is just really good, the Steelers OL just get to hold all game long.)



- - - - - - -
Side note: Looking up this stuff, I ran across a name I had forgotten in Joseph Randle. Holy shit did that guy explode his life.

[CorpusChristiBengal]

(09-23-2020, 04:13 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I think Zeke is a good RB, but it's hard to tell *how* good he is because he's always been behind an amazing OL.

The year before Elliott got drafted, Darren McFadden ran for 1,089 yards at 4.6 YPC for the Cowboys after averaging 3.3 YPC over the previous *three* years with Oakland... The year before that DeMarco Murray led the NFL in rushing with 1,845 yards at 4.7 YPC (also led in rushing TDs and total yards). He was Pro Bowl and All-Pro that year before leaving and was meh for a couple years before being out of the league before his age 30 season.

Doesn't help Elliott's case that his backup Tony Pollard last year had 455 rushing yards at 5.3 YPC as a 4th round rookie.

Zeke might just be a case like Bell where he's elevated by his OL.  (Though while the Cowboys OL is just really good, the Steelers OL just get to hold all game long.)



- - - - - - -
Side note: Looking up this stuff, I ran across a name I had forgotten in Joseph Randle. Holy shit did that guy explode his life.

I think Zeke could produce behind a crap OL, not as well of course but not be as shockingly terrible as Lev Bell is. A lot of the RBs that are very popular right now like Derrick Henry are complete products of the blocking in front of them. Some just flash more than others.

RBs are an interesting case to pay, especially when a lot of the championship winning teams simply did RB by committee. And not to mention every once in a while an UDFA is better than a lot of highly paid, highly vaunted prospect.
 
In my layman opinion, I think that paying one is fine if more important positions are on rookie contracts, there is a contract clause for injury and they are also part of the passing attack like CMC. What Mixon did the last two years behind our garbage OL is even more impressive. Hell, even though he hasn't been amazing he still is a top 10 running back in yards so far this year.

And yeah, RBs tend to have issues once they get out of the NFL. The most recent one I can think of is CJ2K looking good for some violence.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(09-23-2020, 09:19 AM)CorpusChristiBengal Wrote: I think Zeke could produce behind a crap OL, not as well of course but not be as shockingly terrible as Lev Bell is. A lot of the RBs that are very popular right now like Derrick Henry are complete products of the blocking in front of them. Some just flash more than others.

RBs are an interesting case to pay, especially when a lot of the championship winning teams simply did RB by committee. And not to mention every once in a while an UDFA is better than a lot of highly paid, highly vaunted prospect.
 
In my layman opinion, I think that paying one is fine if more important positions are on rookie contracts, there is a contract clause for injury and they are also part of the passing attack like CMC. What Mixon did the last two years behind our garbage OL is even more impressive. Hell, even though he hasn't been amazing he still is a top 10 running back in yards so far this year.

And yeah, RBs tend to have issues once they get out of the NFL. The most recent one I can think of is CJ2K looking good for some violence.

Yeah, McCaffrey is one of the few big RB contracts that while I didn't love, I didn't hate either. Mostly since he can always be moved to being a 100 catch/1,000 yard receiver if he loses a step as a RB. WR seems much kinder to aging/declining skills/rebound from injuries than RB is.

He isn't. Mixon is tied for 21st in rushing yards among RBs. That's despite being tied for 6th in carries. Out of the 30 RBs with at least 20 carries so far this year, the only one Mixon has a higher YPC than is 37-year-old Frank Gore who he is beating by 0.06 YPC.

[CorpusChristiBengal]

(09-23-2020, 09:38 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: He isn't. Mixon is tied for 21st in rushing yards among RBs. That's despite being tied for 6th in carries. Out of the 30 RBs with at least 20 carries so far this year, the only one Mixon has a higher YPC than is 37-year-old Frank Gore who he is beating by 0.06 YPC.

What are you looking at? FBRef has him in the top 10 for this year. I believe you but am I missing something here?

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(09-23-2020, 09:42 AM)CorpusChristiBengal Wrote: What are you looking at? FBRef has him in the top 10 for this year. I believe you but am I missing something here?

Your link has it sorted by carries, which he is tied for 6th in.

If you click on "Yds" it'll sort it by rushing yards, and he's 21st among RBs. There's 2 QBs (Kyler Murray, Cam Newton) who have more, so once you remove them, it's tied for 21st with 115 rushing yards, same amount as James Connor (who has done it on just 22 carries to Mixon's 35).

[CorpusChristiBengal]

(09-23-2020, 10:06 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Your link has it sorted by carries, which he is tied for 6th in.

If you click on "Yds" it'll sort it by rushing yards, and he's 21st among RBs. There's 2 QBs (Kyler Murray, Cam Newton) who have more, so once you remove them, it's tied for 21st with 115 rushing yards, same amount as James Connor (who has done it on just 22 carries to Mixon's 35).

I'm an idiot that doesn't know how to use FBref, disregard that. 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(09-23-2020, 10:17 AM)CorpusChristiBengal Wrote: I'm an idiot that doesn't know how to use FBref, disregard that. 

It's early. Happens to the best of us. Lol

[Wes Mantooth]

Not a fan of paying big money to running backs, especially if you haven't already built and financed an above-average OL.

My biggest complaint about Mixon has always been his lack of production in the pass game. Like the OP said with Mccaffrey, you can better rationalize that spending when they produce in two different areas. Same goes for a guy like Alvin Kamara.

The fact of the matter is, Joe Mixon hasn't really been that good. Ever. You can blame that on his OL, or the playcalling, and you may be right. But 1,100 yards with a low 4's YPC, under 10 TD's, and minimal receiving yards, is nothing that special.

[higgy100]

(09-23-2020, 10:31 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Not a fan of paying big money to running backs, especially if you haven't already built and financed an above-average OL.

My biggest complaint about Mixon has always been his lack of production in the pass game.  Like the OP said with Mccaffrey, you can better rationalize that spending when they produce in two different areas.  Same goes for a guy like Alvin Kamara.

The fact of the matter is, Joe Mixon hasn't really been that good.  Ever.  You can blame that on his OL, or the playcalling, and you may be right.  But 1,100 yards with a low 4's YPC, under 10 TD's, and minimal receiving yards, is nothing that special.

Do you realize he caught 4 balls for 40 yards with 2 being for 1st downs against the Stains? Didn't think so. To call him not a good pass catcher or for having a lack of production points far more to the QB and offensive scheme. Cinci. under Dalton was always a vertical , downfield passing team.

I like the fact that Burrow can survey the field and check off and check down to find Mixon in the flat or underneath the coverage. Burrow knows there ain't a WR on the team he can trust at this point.

Unless Mixon drops passes then there's no basis to get on him. It's not like a hitter in baseball where you can call him a bad curve ball hitter or a guy that can't produce hitting curve balls because there are concrete, tangible stats that prove it.

[*Synric*]

Joe Burrow is first in passing attempts, 20th in yards, and 27th in yards per completion.

[Wes Mantooth]

(09-23-2020, 10:41 AM)higgy100 Wrote: Do you realize he caught 4 balls for 40 yards with 2 being for 1st downs against the Stains? To call him not a good pass catcher or for having a lack of production points far more to the QB and offensive scheme. Cinci. under Dalton was always a vertical , downfield passing team.

I like the fact that Burrow can survey the field and check off and check down to find Mixon in the flat or underneath the coverage. Burrow knows there ain't a WR on the team he can trust at this point.

Unless Mixon drops passes then there's no basis to get on him. It's not like a hitter in baseball where you can call him a bad curve ball hitter or a guy that can't produce hitting curve balls because there are concrete, tangible stats that prove it.

You pay for production in this league.  (Mixon has yet to produce even a 300 yard receiving season.)

Meanwhile, some of his peers that are among the highest paid, have produced multiple 700+ yard seasons.  Until Mixon shows that he can contribute similarly to this level I can't assume anything about his ability.  If he's not asked to do these things (even though capable) then he shouldn't be paid for them. 

My point is that we're paying for a low 4's YPC running back, that racks yards on volume.  This is a back, that for whatever reason, does not produce in the pass game.  This to me, doesn't scream someone who should be paid near the top.

Fwiw, as of right now, Mixon is on pace for 40 receptions for 336 yards.  His totals the previous 3 years are as follows: 287, 296, 287.

Now it's still early, and you may be right, maybe Joe Burrows leads to a huge spike in production for Mixon in the pass game.  But two games in, it's shaping up to be much of the same.  Even with that 4 balls for 40 yards against the Stains.

[fredtoast]

Last year after two games Mixon was averaging 13.5 yards per game and 1.6 per carry. Over the rest of the season he averaged 79 yards per game and 4.3 per carry.

I think it is way too early to make any projection about how these top paid RBs will fare over the course of a full season.

[fredtoast]

(09-23-2020, 10:31 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: The fact of the matter is, Joe Mixon hasn't really been that good.  Ever.  You can blame that on his OL, or the playcalling, and you may be right.  But 1,100 yards with a low 4's YPC, under 10 TD's, and minimal receiving yards, is nothing that special.

Mixon is one of only 3 backs in the league to have over 1100 yards each of the last two seasons, and he accomplished that behind a weak O-line.

[Wes Mantooth]

(09-23-2020, 11:02 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Mixon is one of only 3 backs in the league to have over 1100 yards each of the last two seasons, and he accomplished that behind a weak O-line.

And he did it on volume.

515 attempts for 2,305 yards.  Good for 4.4 yards per carry. (Average)  He was 4th in attempts over those two years, and 7th yards.

I'll never understand people who solely point to rushing totals, while ignoring attempts. (More rushing attempts = more yards)  Almost any decent back who gets 250 carries will get you 1,000+ yards.

[Bengalitis]

Mixon will be fine, he's play well under losing seasons and underpaid. Phase 2 is when RBs tend to dip from tear & wear and that fat paycheck guaranteed. Hopefully he'll stay healthy and be productive. The Oline, D and Zac are my biggest concerns now. Mixon, he's not a priority yet.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(09-23-2020, 10:41 AM)higgy100 Wrote: Do you realize he caught 4 balls for 40 yards with 2 being for 1st downs against the Stains? Didn't think so. To call him not a good pass catcher or for having a lack of production points far more to the QB and offensive scheme. Cinci. under Dalton was always a vertical , downfield passing team.

I like the fact that Burrow can survey the field and check off and check down to find Mixon in the flat or underneath the coverage. Burrow knows there ain't a WR on the team he can trust at this point.

Unless Mixon drops passes then there's no basis to get on him. It's not like a hitter in baseball where you can call him a bad curve ball hitter or a guy that can't produce hitting curve balls because there are concrete, tangible stats that prove it.

Why shouldn’t Burrow trust Boyd? Because of one drop? He made up for it.

[higgy100]

(09-23-2020, 11:14 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: And he did it on volume.

515 attempts for 2,305 yards.  Good for 4.4 yards per carry. (Average)  He was 4th in attempts over those two years, and 7th yards.

I'll never understand people who solely point to rushing totals, while ignoring attempts. (More rushing attempts = more yards)  Almost any decent back who gets 250 carries will get you 1,000+ yards.

LMAO again at you. So the guy that gets 190 hits in a year only got it because he had more AB's than most? Nothing wrong with averaging 4.4 ypc  behind a crap OL with a QB that was at best very average.

[J24]

(09-23-2020, 10:31 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Not a fan of paying big money to running backs, especially if you haven't already built and financed an above-average OL.

My biggest complaint about Mixon has always been his lack of production in the pass game.  Like the OP said with Mccaffrey, you can better rationalize that spending when they produce in two different areas.  Same goes for a guy like Alvin Kamara.

The fact of the matter is, Joe Mixon hasn't really been that good.  Ever.  You can blame that on his OL, or the playcalling, and you may be right.  But 1,100 yards with a low 4's YPC, under 10 TD's, and minimal receiving yards, is nothing that special.

His lack of use in the passing game is confusing since his main attribute in college was his receiving ability.