Mixon now questionable

[Nicomo Cosca]

(10-03-2020, 05:38 PM)motoarch Wrote: I love gio but he's not better.

If does well tommorow it's because he's good and and had a good day.

Long term he's not better and can't expect him to do it every weekend.

This. People have overrated Gio here for years. Not saying he isn’t a very good player. But he is not a #1.

[Wes Mantooth]

(10-03-2020, 12:21 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Nah.

2016 - 3.7 avg
2017 - 4.4 avg
2018 - 3.8 avg
2019 - 3.2 avg

So one good year out of the 4 that the OL has been crap. Mixon has been better.

2017 - 3.5 avg
2018 - 4.9 avg
2019 - 4.1 avg

You can't go by that at all.

Gio has such a small amount of carries, they he rarely has a chance to get a rhythm or break off a big run.  And the biggest reason is, I veture to guess almost half (if not more) of those carries came on 3rd and long, where he's running a draw or we're just setting up for a punt/kick or running clock.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(10-03-2020, 06:04 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: You can't go by that at all.

Gio has such a small amount of carries, they he rarely has a chance to get a rhythm or break off a big run.  And the biggest reason is, I veture to guess almost half (if not more) of those carries came on 3rd and long, where he's running a draw or we're just setting up for a punt/kick or running clock.

Then what are we basing Gio being “better behind a poor OL” off exactly? It would also be a small sample size. People just remember a few flashy plays here and there and act like it would be like that consistently.

[Nicomo Cosca]

Gio did have his best year post-OL going to shit in 2017 when he had 105 carries and 4.4 avg.

But that’s still not as good as Mixon at his best (4.9).

[treee]

Imagine if we used Mixon extension money on a premier OL in FA.

[fredtoast]

(10-03-2020, 01:03 PM)BoomerFan Wrote: I think Mixon is good but $12 million a year is just too much for an RB in this age.

He is only 24 and it is $9.6 per year.

[GreenCornBengal]

(10-03-2020, 06:51 PM)fredtoast Wrote: He is only 24 and it is $9.6 per year.

He said this age not his age. I read it wrong at first as well.

[Wes Mantooth]

(10-03-2020, 06:32 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Then what are we basing Gio being “better behind a poor OL” off exactly? It would also be a small sample size. People just remember a few flashy plays here and there and act like it would be like that consistently.

I didn't say he'd be better behind a poor OL.  I just said you can't point to those YPC's and assume he'd be worse.  He gets such a small amount of carries, that come in a lot of throwaway plays, that it's really hard to judge.

I'm not sure what he would look like with a normal workload behind this OL.  Running between the tackles definitely isn't his strong suit.  But I do think if he was given more work, and the play-calling was more creative, that he could be much more valuable than what those numbers you posted suggest.

[Wes Mantooth]

(10-03-2020, 06:51 PM)fredtoast Wrote: He is only 24 and it is $9.6 per year.

9.6 is his average salary over the next 5 seasons.

His extension was worth of an average of 12 mil.

Some people like to use the value of his most recent contract to set his current worth to the team, which makes perfect sense.  Some people like to include a rookie year into the total, so that number appears lower.

Tomato tomahto.

[jfkbengals]

(10-03-2020, 06:04 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: You can't go by that at all.

Gio has such a small amount of carries, they he rarely has a chance to get a rhythm or break off a big run.  And the biggest reason is, I veture to guess almost half (if not more) of those carries came on 3rd and long, where he's running a draw or we're just setting up for a punt/kick or running clock.

Prior to 2019 you can certainly go by those numbers, as Marvin always spelled the lead back every third series.  So Joe would get 2 series, then Gio would get a series.  Then repeat.  How quickly we forget the fan's complaints that Joe was starting to get in a groove, only to end up on the sideline.

[*bfine32*]

Kinda hard to base Gio on limited rushes. Like all RBs he needs carries to show his worth.

Since Mixon has become our feature back (2017) Gio's had 7 games in which he's gotten double digit rushes. In those games he has rushed for 4.7 YPC and 5 TDs.

The 1 game he's had over 20 carries he went for 116 @ 5.0 YPC and a TD.

We could do much worse than Gio is Mixon is hurt and he's not over rated; he's under used.

[Murdock2420]

(10-03-2020, 08:04 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Kinda hard to base Gio on limited rushes. Like all RBs he needs carries to show his worth.

Since Mixon has become our feature back (2017) Gio's had 7 games in which he's gotten double digit rushes. In those games he has rushed for 4.7 YPC and 5 TDs.

The 1 game he's had over 20 carries he went for 116 @ 5.0 YPC and a TD.

We could do much worse than Gio is Mixon is hurt and he's not over rated; he's under used.

Not just under used, but used incorrectly.

Sending him up the middle isn't exactly the best play for a shifty back who is dangerous in space. Toss plays, screens, even the occasional draw play would be a better way to use him.

[Wes Mantooth]

(10-03-2020, 07:50 PM)jfkbengals Wrote: Prior to 2019 you can certainly go by those numbers, as Marvin always spelled the lead back every third series.  So Joe would get 2 series, then Gio would get a series.  Then repeat.  How quickly we forget the fan's complaints that Joe was starting to get in a groove, only to end up on the sideline.

Gio Bernard only had 56 carries in 2018 under Marvin Lewis. (Fwiw, he had 53 last season under Zac Taylor.)  And 27 of those came in two games where he started. 

The rest of the games look like this: 1, 6, 2, 2, 1, 5, 3, 6, 3

In 2017, he had 105, but 71 of those came in the last 4 games, where he was getting the lion's share.

I could be wrong, but I believe you may thinking back further.  Either that, or they just decided not to run the ball on every 3rd possession.  I don't how you can explain an average of around 2 carries a game, if he was getting every 3rd series in '17, and '18.

[Wes Mantooth]

I pulled up Gio's game log from 2017, and here are the games he got more than 5 carries:

7 carries - 40 yards
13 carries -77 yards
11carries -62 yards
14 carries -30 yards
23 carries -116 yards
10 carries -52 yards

Total

78 carries - 377 yards - 4.8 YPC

(Note: This is only an average of 13 carries a game)

If he saw this workload over the course of full season, where he actually got at least a decent amount of work, he would have 1,005 yards on only 205 touches.

I think his YPC this year (4.36) is an example of how it can be misleading, and why usage matters. It gets drug down by a bunch of 1, 2, 3 carry games, where he has no rhythm, and he's getting gabage touches.

Here are his receiving totals for the above 6 games (rec-yards):

1 -39
2-19
6-68
3-13
7-52
6-18

Total 22 rec, 209 yards. Projects to: 59 rec, 557 yards.

If you get him the ball his numbers and averages come up. He does well when given the opportunity.

[reuben.ahmed]

for game, or for season? did he show up in season yet?

[reuben.ahmed]

Bet Gio kills it tomorrow and nobody gives him credit for running better with the same atrocious o-line.

[Tony]

(10-03-2020, 08:39 PM)reuben.ahmed Wrote: Bet Gio kills it tomorrow and nobody gives him credit for running better with the same atrocious o-line.

Considering its the Jags no, and rumor is Joe is gonna play..

[samhain]

I don't think Gio is made to carry a heavy load. In 2018 he was pressed into action when Mixon went out early in the year. He started vs the Panthers if I recall correctly, and he was hurt before long. He's plenty effective, but he's not built to be an every down back.

[BoomerFan]

Well, happy to be eating my words (sort of). Mixon looked like he was worth $9.6 or even $12 million out there today. Of course we don't play the Jags every week but this was a nice look at the team coming together. Joe B didn't have to do it all and he did occasionally get time when he dropped back to throw.

Our defense still needs work though. We gave up a couple of TDs quick -- don't let them abuse the sidelines like that.