The First Ever TFF Thread: Bills Edition

[Truck_1_0_1_]

After about 7 hours of analysing the game and recording the grades, I FINALLY have them for you. Now, from what I do know of PFF's grades, mine differ big time (ESPECIALLY on offense; all of mine are tons higher), which makes me think that:

A; They are way too harsh on the guys or,
B; The numbers I use are higher values than PFF, hence the higher totals.

I thought I was fair though; watching the game 3 times on tape (and once in person), we literally had 7, maybe 8 bad/negative plays on offense, all game; our oline didn't allow anything and Whitworth didn't have a single negative play, while Zeitler had only one. The plays that were borderline good/bad, were great plays by unblocked players, in every circumstance; in terms of efficiency, I think this was the best game this team has played, ever (on offense). Anyways, here are the grades!:


Top 5 on O:

1. Andy with a +9.3. 2 bad throws all game. Two. Arguably three, but Sanu should've caught it. All of his incompletions were throw-aways, batted passes or drops. Just brilliant work and his accuracy was on point, save for 2 of the throws. If he can continue to play like this for the whole season...

2. Whitworth with a +6.5. Not a single negative running play went to the left and he pitched another perfect game. See Bfine's thread for his prowess in pass pro.

3. 'dre with a +6.1. Had more negative plays than anyone on the line aside from Bodine, but he had the most impact plays, even more than Whitworth. Its great to see him just crush a DB on a screen pass!

4. Zeitler with a +6.1. After Whitworth, had the least negative plays and was super steady, consistent and punishing.

5. Bodine with a +6.0. Major impact plays (2nd most) but had the most negative plays; only once did he run into the backfield to pursue his man, otherwise was solid and made a phenomenal block on the DB on MLJ's TD.

I have never seen a game in my life, where the line went forward on every running play and kept the QB completely clean, like in this game.

Bottom 5 on O (never had it scored like this before):

Hill +2.3 (had 4 bad runs and he didn't lose yards on a single one of them. Bravo)

AJ +1.9 (Can't score high when you aren't targeted much, but did well when the ball went to him)

Sanu +1.3 (Probably could've caught the ball that hit him in the hands, but still, had a good game)

Hewitt +0.2 (whiffed a couple of times, but it didn't matter. Carey was right, btw)

Kroft 0.0 (when's he going to catch a pass?)

Fisher -0.1 (can't drop a pass that hits you in the hands, OL or not, low pass or not)

D is a different story, but people such as Dre didn't do as bad as PFF said (he only had 1 MT, they credited him with 2), anyways, top 5 on D:

1. Adam Jones with a +1.1. If he doesn't make the PB, its bullshit, period. Should've had another pick.

2. Nelson with a +0.8. He has indeed lost a step, but he's still doing his thing; couple of great tackles this game.

3. Iloka with a +0.7. Not too involved in the second half, he was solid as always.

4. Dennard with a +0.6. Fantastic to get your first pick in such a great game! Did a swell job, though did have some negative plays...

5. Rey with a +0.4. Our best LB on the day, he actually did better in coverage, than against the run.

Bottom 5 on D:

Vinnie Rey -1.6 (He was awful. He can't be a starter, try Dawson, I'm sure he won't be much worse)

Lamur -2.1 (I like the guy, but man he's terrible lol...)

MJ -2.4 (Another game in which he did nothing, I hope he can sack Pitt at least once...)

Peko -2.6 (After a good Seattle and KC game, he laid a stinker on Sunday. Boo)

Geno -2.9 (did nothing on the day. Surprised)

On teams, we had another good day, with only 3 somewhat bad plays in 17 snaps (one of them was Tate's).

Nuge' led with +2.7, Huber had +2.0, Adam had a +1.7, Peerman with a +1.1 and Carter with a +1.0. Fisher had the penalty.

So yeah, how'd I do? :$

[StLucieBengal]

PFF just grade like they are scouting someone. So it's subjective to what they value not what the player is doing.

Just shows you value some things they don't. Not a bad thing.

Thanks for your info.

[CincyProduct]

I thought the defense played much better than the grades...

[*SHRacerX*]

(10-25-2015, 12:05 AM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: After about 7 hours of analysing the game and recording the grades, I FINALLY have them for you. Now, from what I do know of PFF's grades, mine differ big time (ESPECIALLY on offense; all of mine are tons higher), which makes me think that:

A; They are way too harsh on the guys or,
B; The numbers I use are higher values than PFF, hence the higher totals.

I thought I was fair though; watching the game 3 times on tape (and once in person), we literally had 7, maybe 8 bad/negative plays on offense, all game; our oline didn't allow anything and Whitworth didn't have a single negative play, while Zeitler had only one. The plays that were borderline good/bad, were great plays by unblocked players, in every circumstance; in terms of efficiency, I think this was the best game this team has played, ever (on offense). Anyways, here are the grades!:


Top 5 on O:

1. Andy with a +9.3. 2 bad throws all game. Two. Arguably three, but Sanu should've caught it. All of his incompletions were throw-aways, batted passes or drops. Just brilliant work and his accuracy was on point, save for 2 of the throws. If he can continue to play like this for the whole season...

2. Whitworth with a +6.5. Not a single negative running play went to the left and he pitched another perfect game. See Bfine's thread for his prowess in pass pro.

3. 'dre with a +6.1. Had more negative plays than anyone on the line aside from Bodine, but he had the most impact plays, even more than Whitworth. Its great to see him just crush a DB on a screen pass!

4. Zeitler with a +6.1. After Whitworth, had the least negative plays and was super steady, consistent and punishing.

5. Bodine with a +6.0. Major impact plays (2nd most) but had the most negative plays; only once did he run into the backfield to pursue his man, otherwise was solid and made a phenomenal block on the DB on MLJ's TD.

I have never seen a game in my life, where the line went forward on every running play and kept the QB completely clean, like in this game.

Bottom 5 on O (never had it scored like this before):

Hill +2.3 (had 4 bad runs and he didn't lose yards on a single one of them. Bravo)

AJ +1.9 (Can't score high when you aren't targeted much, but did well when the ball went to him)

Sanu +1.3 (Probably could've caught the ball that hit him in the hands, but still, had a good game)

Hewitt +0.2 (whiffed a couple of times, but it didn't matter. Carey was right, btw)

Kroft 0.0 (when's he going to catch a pass?)

Fisher -0.1 (can't drop a pass that hits you in the hands, OL or not, low pass or not)

D is a different story, but people such as Dre didn't do as bad as PFF said (he only had 1 MT, they credited him with 2), anyways, top 5 on D:

1. Adam Jones with a +1.1. If he doesn't make the PB, its bullshit, period. Should've had another pick.

2. Nelson with a +0.8. He has indeed lost a step, but he's still doing his thing; couple of great tackles this game.

3. Iloka with a +0.7. Not too involved in the second half, he was solid as always.

4. Dennard with a +0.6. Fantastic to get your first pick in such a great game! Did a swell job, though did have some negative plays...

5. Rey with a +0.4. Our best LB on the day, he actually did better in coverage, than against the run.

Bottom 5 on D:

Vinnie Rey -1.6 (He was awful. He can't be a starter, try Dawson, I'm sure he won't be much worse)

Lamur -2.1 (I like the guy, but man he's terrible lol...)

MJ -2.4 (Another game in which he did nothing, I hope he can sack Pitt at least once...)

Peko -2.6 (After a good Seattle and KC game, he laid a stinker on Sunday. Boo)

Geno -2.9 (did nothing on the day. Surprised)

On teams, we had another good day, with only 3 somewhat bad plays in 17 snaps (one of them was Tate's).

Nuge' led with +2.7, Huber had +2.0, Adam had a +1.7, Peerman with a +1.1 and Carter with a +1.0. Fisher had the penalty.

So yeah, how'd I do? :$

Really, really good stuff....thanks for all your effort! 

[Luvnit2]

(10-25-2015, 12:05 AM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: After about 7 hours of analysing the game and recording the grades, I FINALLY have them for you. Now, from what I do know of PFF's grades, mine differ big time (ESPECIALLY on offense; all of mine are tons higher), which makes me think that:

A; They are way too harsh on the guys or,
B; The numbers I use are higher values than PFF, hence the higher totals.

I thought I was fair though; watching the game 3 times on tape (and once in person), we literally had 7, maybe 8 bad/negative plays on offense, all game; our oline didn't allow anything and Whitworth didn't have a single negative play, while Zeitler had only one. The plays that were borderline good/bad, were great plays by unblocked players, in every circumstance; in terms of efficiency, I think this was the best game this team has played, ever (on offense). Anyways, here are the grades!:


Top 5 on O:

1. Andy with a +9.3. 2 bad throws all game. Two. Arguably three, but Sanu should've caught it. All of his incompletions were throw-aways, batted passes or drops. Just brilliant work and his accuracy was on point, save for 2 of the throws. If he can continue to play like this for the whole season...

2. Whitworth with a +6.5. Not a single negative running play went to the left and he pitched another perfect game. See Bfine's thread for his prowess in pass pro.

3. 'dre with a +6.1. Had more negative plays than anyone on the line aside from Bodine, but he had the most impact plays, even more than Whitworth. Its great to see him just crush a DB on a screen pass!

4. Zeitler with a +6.1. After Whitworth, had the least negative plays and was super steady, consistent and punishing.

5. Bodine with a +6.0. Major impact plays (2nd most) but had the most negative plays; only once did he run into the backfield to pursue his man, otherwise was solid and made a phenomenal block on the DB on MLJ's TD.

I have never seen a game in my life, where the line went forward on every running play and kept the QB completely clean, like in this game.

Bottom 5 on O (never had it scored like this before):

Hill +2.3 (had 4 bad runs and he didn't lose yards on a single one of them. Bravo)

AJ +1.9 (Can't score high when you aren't targeted much, but did well when the ball went to him)

Sanu +1.3 (Probably could've caught the ball that hit him in the hands, but still, had a good game)

Hewitt +0.2 (whiffed a couple of times, but it didn't matter. Carey was right, btw)

Kroft 0.0 (when's he going to catch a pass?)

Fisher -0.1 (can't drop a pass that hits you in the hands, OL or not, low pass or not)

D is a different story, but people such as Dre didn't do as bad as PFF said (he only had 1 MT, they credited him with 2), anyways, top 5 on D:

1. Adam Jones with a +1.1. If he doesn't make the PB, its bullshit, period. Should've had another pick.

2. Nelson with a +0.8. He has indeed lost a step, but he's still doing his thing; couple of great tackles this game.

3. Iloka with a +0.7. Not too involved in the second half, he was solid as always.

4. Dennard with a +0.6. Fantastic to get your first pick in such a great game! Did a swell job, though did have some negative plays...

5. Rey with a +0.4. Our best LB on the day, he actually did better in coverage, than against the run.

Bottom 5 on D:

Vinnie Rey -1.6 (He was awful. He can't be a starter, try Dawson, I'm sure he won't be much worse)

Lamur -2.1 (I like the guy, but man he's terrible lol...)

MJ -2.4 (Another game in which he did nothing, I hope he can sack Pitt at least once...)

Peko -2.6 (After a good Seattle and KC game, he laid a stinker on Sunday. Boo)

Geno -2.9 (did nothing on the day. Surprised)

On teams, we had another good day, with only 3 somewhat bad plays in 17 snaps (one of them was Tate's).

Nuge' led with +2.7, Huber had +2.0, Adam had a +1.7, Peerman with a +1.1 and Carter with a +1.0. Fisher had the penalty.

So yeah, how'd I do? :$

TY for your work

I see lots of interesting things. Dalton was chastised by many in this forum last week saying he played poorly at times, you are saying he played awesome.

Our interior DL (Geno and Peko) scored poorly. Could it be the Bill interior OL (center Wood and Guards (1 is Incognito) who have been playing well just shut down and won the battle?

An interesting take on Rey M. in coverage as many feel he stinks overall and especially in coverage.

Great stuff

[*bfine32*]

Surprised MLJ didn't crack your top 5 on Offense

[JADefense]

I enjoyed your analysis. Thanks for taking the time to post this info.

By the way, I completely agree that Dalton had a very good game. He was pretty much spot on, since many of his incompletions were throw aways. I've seen some criticizing that his long pass to MLJ should have been thrown a few feet to the right or another completion should have been about a foot lower.

If that's the only fault in his game, you know he's finally arrived as a top-of-the-line QB.

[BengalsRocker]

(10-25-2015, 10:25 AM)bfine32 Wrote: Surprised MLJ didn't crack your top 5 on Offense

That and Dunlap on D.

[JonasNJ]

Wow. Just amazing work.

Kudos !!! :)

[Johnny Cupcakes]

I'm sure this took a lot of time and effort, so great job, Truck.

Those offensive numbers are definitely high if the lowest ranked player was only 1/10 of a point below zero. What stats do you think you might be putting too heavy of a grade on?

My biggest question is if you can remain unbiased when grading your own team. It would be hard, I imagine.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(10-25-2015, 01:53 AM)StLucieBengal Wrote: PFF just grade like they are scouting someone.   So it's subjective to what they value not what the player is doing.  

Just shows you value some things they don't.   Not a bad thing.  

Thanks for your info.

Thanks, I hope that's the case!

(10-25-2015, 03:42 AM)CincyProduct Wrote: I thought the defense played much better than the grades...

They gave up a lot.

(10-25-2015, 07:04 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Really, really good stuff....thanks for all your effort! 

Thank you, I put a lot of sweaty hours into it! :$

(10-25-2015, 08:57 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: TY for your work

I see lots of interesting things. Dalton was chastised by many in this forum last week saying he played poorly at times, you are saying he played awesome.

Our interior DL (Geno and Peko) scored poorly. Could it be the Bill interior OL (center Wood and Guards (1 is Incognito) who have been playing well just shut down and won the battle?

An interesting take on Rey M. in coverage as many feel he stinks overall and especially in coverage.

Great stuff

Incognito has come out to prove he's not just a goon; he's been GREAT since the shenanigans. Wood is a perennial PBer every year too, but also, Geno and Peko were DT'd literally on every snap. Yams too, but not as often.

Rey was out of position on only a couple of plays, but he came up a big a handful of times.

(10-25-2015, 10:25 AM)bfine32 Wrote: Surprised MLJ didn't crack your top 5 on Offense

He was 6th, at +3.8 :)

(10-25-2015, 10:42 AM)JADefense Wrote: I enjoyed your analysis.  Thanks for taking the time to post this info.

By the way, I completely agree that Dalton had a very good game.  He was pretty much spot on, since many of his incompletions were throw aways.  I've seen some criticizing that his long pass to MLJ should have been thrown a few feet to the right or another completion  should have been about a foot lower.  

If that's the only fault in his game, you know he's finally arrived as a top-of-the-line QB.

He had literally 2 or 3 BAD throws all game; the one he missed Gio-van, the overthrow, deep to Sanu and arguable on the one to MLJ that was PD'd by Gilmore.

(10-25-2015, 10:52 AM)BengalsRocker Wrote: That and Dunlap on D.

Dunlap also had a bunch of impact plays, but largely did nothing for the majority of the game.

(10-25-2015, 03:44 PM)Johnny Cupcakes Wrote: I'm sure this took a lot of time and effort, so great job, Truck.

Those offensive numbers are definitely high if the lowest ranked player was only 1/10 of a point below zero. What stats do you think you might be putting too heavy of a grade on?

My biggest question is if you can remain unbiased when grading your own team.  It would be hard, I imagine.

Thanks, Everyone!

I think I'm grading them on too many plays; when Hill runs, I'm grading the whole line, even if they aren't in the play.

As for the unbiased, all you have to do is look at the D grades .

[car91]

Thank you Truck. I always enjoy these grades.

[*Go Cards*]

Good work Truck !

[Froob]

You think Sanu should've caught a ball that was clearly overthrown?

[*bfine32*]

(10-25-2015, 10:32 PM)Froob Wrote: You think Sanu should've caught a ball that was clearly overthrown?

....or a 300 pound lineman should have made a shoestring catch on a poorly thrown ball.

I love what Truck is doing here; I could never do it, I just think he needs another set of eyes or 2.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(10-25-2015, 10:32 PM)Froob Wrote: You think Sanu should've caught a ball that was clearly overthrown?

(10-25-2015, 10:38 PM)bfine32 Wrote: ....or a 300 pound lineman should have made a shoestring catch on a poorly thrown ball.

I love what Truck is doing here; I could never do it, I just think he needs another set of eyes or 2.

For the former, it was on a screen pass: I never thought he could've caught the over throw.

On the latter, it hit him in the hands: gotta catch that period.

[Element]

Keep it up man, appreciate the hard work

[JonasNJ]

Did you manage to get a look how Carter did, when he took over from MJ?

To me it seemed like he got a lot of pressure on those snaps?

[Froob]

(10-26-2015, 01:06 AM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: For the former, it was on a screen pass: I never thought he could've caught the over throw.

On the latter, it hit him in the hands: gotta catch that period.

Ok but still, I would suggest you rewatch the play. https://youtu.be/N4KE9mSyFAA?t=5746

Dalton's throw is high and inaccurate.  It didn't hit Sanu in the hands; it him in one hand while he was jumping for it behind the line of scrimmage when a defender was running at him full speed. 

Even if Sanu manages to magically catch it, he is going to get hit hard... You can see he puts all his effort in trying to catch it until, out of the corner of his eye, comes a defender full speed. The natural reaction is to stop the catch (especially if the ball is uncatchable and you are behind the line of scrimmage) and protect yourself. 

Dalton played extremely well this game, but I gotta say that he left Sanu out to hang with such a high pass.

[XenoMorph]

Apparently Besides Burfict V Rey is the only LB smart enough to QB the defense.