AJ’s decline...

[kalibengal]

(11-16-2020, 01:22 AM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: High pointing a ball and fighting for a ball are two completely different skills.

Martin is another guy that gets too many snaps. There HAS to be someone better out there.

Not clear about what happened on that long attempt to AJ when the ball just floated like a lame duck...was that the wind? was it tipped?
It made Burrows arm strength look questionable. Living on LA, been watching alot of Herbert, and that dude has one of the strongest and most accurate deep balls Ive seen in  a while from a rookie . Not implying that we made the wrong choice, just observation on the comparison of these two QBs which will be through out their careers.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(11-16-2020, 12:50 PM)PhilHos Wrote: I'd actually agree but are opposing defenses still respecting AJ? Not saying that's why his play has declined, but if he's still getting a safety to cheat over to his side of the field, he's still bringing SOMETHING. Though, at this point, I'd be surprised if any team is still respecting AJ.

If you’re a DC and you’re not putting your best CB on Tee at this point you’re not very good at your job.

[*SHRacerX*]

(11-16-2020, 12:50 PM)PhilHos Wrote: I'd actually agree but are opposing defenses still respecting AJ? Not saying that's why his play has declined, but if he's still getting a safety to cheat over to his side of the field, he's still bringing SOMETHING. Though, at this point, I'd be surprised if any team is still respecting AJ.

The only team that I remember putting their #1 CB on Green was Cleveland with Ward and Tennessee with Butler.  

[Big Boss]

There's no realm of reality where they justify re-signing him to another big contract. Hell, he's barely playing well enough for league minimum.

Writing's on the wall. He will not be here next year.

[*jason*]

(11-16-2020, 12:54 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: If you’re a DC and you’re not putting your best CB on Tee at this point you’re not very good at your job.

Yep... It's not like I've studied him or anything, but I've been starting Tee on my fantasy team for about a month now. He does his thing regardless of matchup.

Very scientific I know....

[*ochocincos*]

AJ Green had 2 good games and the rest have been bad.
If he re-signs, it needs to be no more than $5 mill a year, as he's on pace for WR3 numbers.

[Whatever]

(11-19-2020, 10:48 AM)ochocincos Wrote: AJ Green had 2 good games and the rest have been bad.
If he re-signs, it needs to be no more than $5 mill a year, as he's on pace for WR3 numbers.

He's on pace for WR3 production, but he's 23rd in the league in Targets, so WR1 volume.

Sadly, the guy is done.  A day 3 pick could do what he's doing with that much target volume.  

[*ochocincos*]

(11-19-2020, 11:00 AM)Whatever Wrote: He's on pace for WR3 production, but he's 23rd in the league in Targets, so WR1 volume.

Sadly, the guy is done.  A day 3 pick could do what he's doing with that much target volume.  

Yep. I personally don't want him back, and I was on record last offseason saying we should move on from him rather than tagging or extending him because there's too much risk for the money he'd want.

[*bengalfan74*]

(11-19-2020, 11:28 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Yep. I personally don't want him back, and I was on record last offseason saying we should move on from him rather than tagging or extending him because there's too much risk for the money he'd want.

Me too, Fred Toast, Wes Mantooth, and others I'm sure. Like you say and we said back then, just to much money for the risk.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(11-19-2020, 10:39 AM)Big Boss Wrote: There's no realm of reality where they justify re-signing him to another big contract. Hell, he's barely playing well enough for league minimum.

Writing's on the wall. He will not be here next year.

(11-19-2020, 11:00 AM)Whatever Wrote: He's on pace for WR3 production, but he's 23rd in the league in Targets, so WR1 volume.

Sadly, the guy is done.  A day 3 pick could do what he's doing with that much target volume.  

Lol you guys are nuts with the hyperbole.

He's not, "done," far from it; he just is not the game-breaking, WR1 that we had for his first 8 years here and that's fine (after this season), but like Ocho said, it's only fine if he gets a significantly-lower deal.

If he signed a team-friendly 3 year 20 mil deal or (at the most), 7 mil a year for 2-4 years, that would be fine; you would have a mentor in the locker room, someone who will get you WR3 numbers and will still command targets/attention, albeit not like before.

If the guy was, "done," he wouldn't be averaging 10+ YPC, though his YPG is low (slightly deflated due to not getting a ton of snaps in the Bmore game).

To compare with Fitzgerald, his idol, Fitz had his first (non-rookie) year like this, when he was 29 and a ton of people were claiming he was, "done," back then.

Now, while Fitzgerald did have a resurgence for 3 years (I don't expect that same resurgence out of AJ), he was kept around (probably at more money that he's worth) as a WR3 and has been a solid presence on the team; there's no reason why AJ can't be that same player, for the next 4-5 years and I would be more-than happy to keep him on the team.

Just don't pay him like a WR1.

[Whatever]

(11-19-2020, 01:18 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: Lol you guys are nuts with the hyperbole.

He's not, "done," far from it; he just is not the game-breaking, WR1 that we had for his first 8 years here and that's fine (after this season), but like Ocho said, it's only fine if he gets a significantly-lower deal.

If he signed a team-friendly 3 year 20 mil deal or (at the most), 7 mil a year for 2-4 years, that would be fine; you would have a mentor in the locker room, someone who will get you WR3 numbers and will still command targets/attention, albeit not like before.

If the guy was, "done," he wouldn't be averaging 10+ YPC, though his YPG is low (slightly deflated due to not getting a ton of snaps in the Bmore game).

To compare with Fitzgerald, his idol, Fitz had his first (non-rookie) year like this, when he was 29 and a ton of people were claiming he was, "done," back then.

Now, while Fitzgerald did have a resurgence for 3 years (I don't expect that same resurgence out of AJ), he was kept around (probably at more money that he's worth) as a WR3 and has been a solid presence on the team; there's no reason why AJ can't be that same player, for the next 4-5 years and I would be more-than happy to keep him on the team.

Just don't pay him like a WR1.

The year you're referring to for Fitzgerald, the Cards had 4 different starting QB's, all of them scrubs.  You can't point the finger at QB play for AJ's struggles.

AJ is 23rd in targets, 68th in catches, and 82nd in receiving yards.  He has no TD's.  As I said, he's getting #1 target volume for #3 production.  

He is 158th in the league in yards per target.  To put that in perspective, Sample, Gio, and Mixon are all outranking him in that category.  He's also no longer drawing the tough matchups he was earlier in the year.  He seems disinterested, his effort is lacking at times, and I wouldn't personally want a guy who pulled what he did against Baltimore mentoring my young players.

3 years, $20 million?  He isn't worth half of that.  

[Whatever]

(11-19-2020, 11:28 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Yep. I personally don't want him back, and I was on record last offseason saying we should move on from him rather than tagging or extending him because there's too much risk for the money he'd want.

I didn't want him back, either,and was in numerous discussions about.  I even got killed for trading him to GB for a 3rd in the annual board mock. 

Good teams try to get out from under aging vets before they hit the wall.  We've held on long past AJ's sell by date.  He's an all time Bengals great, no question, but he needs to be gone this off-season.

[Wes Mantooth]

(11-19-2020, 01:18 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: If he signed a team-friendly 3 year 20 mil deal or (at the most), 7 mil a year for 2-4 years, that would be fine; you would have a mentor in the locker room, someone who will get you WR3 numbers and will still command targets/attention, albeit not like before.

How does anyone take you seriously?  I've never seen a less informed person present themselves more confidently.  It's actually quite amazing.

2-4 years???  

A "team friendly deal" on multi-year deal @ 7 mil?  

But you are right about one thing.  You do definitely need a mentor at WR.  And it can't be Tyler Boyd with only 5 years in the league.  I mean look at the Chiefs.  They've got their mentor in... checks notes... a 27 year old Sammy Watkins (same age as Boyd in 2021).  Wait a minute... 

[Wes Mantooth]

(11-19-2020, 01:18 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: Just don't pay him at all.

Fixed this for you.

[*bfine32*]

I had 0 problem with the Tag; it's not my money. In fact I advocated for it over a long term contract, because of uncertainty. Going into this off season we now know what we have and negotiations can start at a much lower number. With the league likely to take a reduction in total cap I cannot see anyone wanting to pay much for AJ; including the Bengals.

I type this in hopes of him proving me wrong and going on a tear for the rest of the year. But as of today: I have him as our #4 WR

[motoarch]

(11-15-2020, 10:55 PM)RunKijanaRun Wrote: I barely even like him anymore. I lost all respect and admiration for him.

Wow that's pretty harsh.

The guy isn't the player he use to be.

He didn't get caught on film beating his wife.



That aside and back on topic; I suggested a couple years ago he was injury prone and in decline and nearly got laughed out of the forum by a lot of people.

Well here we are. I like AJ and wish him the best but he's a shell of his former self.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(11-19-2020, 02:19 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: How does anyone take you seriously?  I've never seen a less informed person present themselves more confidently.  It's actually quite amazing.

2-4 years???  

A "team friendly deal" on multi-year deal @ 7 mil?  

But you are right about one thing.  You do definitely need a mentor at WR.  And it can't be Tyler Boyd with only 5 years in the league.  I mean look at the Chiefs.  They've got their mentor in... checks notes... a 27 year old Sammy Watkins (same age as Boyd in 2021).  Wait a minute... 

I prominently write that I'm not a big numbers and contract guy, but hey, I'm just taking a stab at what other people are paid around the league.

As usual, your lack of class shines out above all else. And *I'M* the miserable person?

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(11-19-2020, 02:00 PM)Whatever Wrote: The year you're referring to for Fitzgerald, the Cards had 4 different starting QB's, all of them scrubs.  You can't point the finger at QB play for AJ's struggles.

AJ is 23rd in targets, 68th in catches, and 82nd in receiving yards.  He has no TD's.  As I said, he's getting #1 target volume for #3 production.  

He is 158th in the league in yards per target.  To put that in perspective, Sample, Gio, and Mixon are all outranking him in that category.  He's also no longer drawing the tough matchups he was earlier in the year.  He seems disinterested, his effort is lacking at times, and I wouldn't personally want a guy who pulled what he did against Baltimore mentoring my young players.

3 years, $20 million?  He isn't worth half of that.  

Will admit, I completely forgot about the dumpster-fire at QB for 2 of those 3 years, so yeah, that's on me.

Still doesn't mean he's done.

Anyways, 3 years at 20 mil puts him somewhere between Willie Snead and Perriman:

Snead: 33 25 356 14.2 3 34 2.8 39.6 Much better catch% and 3 TDs, otherwise the same.
Corey Davis: 48 34 436 12.8 3 38 4.9 62.3 Better across the board.
Perriman: 24 16 219 13.7 2 50 3.2 43. Still better.

So yeah, I probably overvalued him a bit; would need to go under the 6 mil tier then, I guess, which puts him on par with Amendola and Patterson (who isn't really a typical WR).

Still think he's got something left in the tank though and I'll die on that hill.

[Wes Mantooth]

(11-19-2020, 03:48 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: Anyways, 3 years at 20 mil puts him somewhere between Willie Snead and Perriman:

Snead: 33 25 356 14.2 3 34 2.8 39.6 Much better catch% and 3 TDs, otherwise the same.
Corey Davis: 48 34 436 12.8 3 38 4.9 62.3 Better across the board.
Perriman: 24 16 219 13.7 2 50 3.2 43. Still better.

So yeah, I probably overvalued him a bit; would need to go under the 6 mil tier then, I guess, which puts him on par with Amendola and Patterson (who isn't really a typical WR).

Still think he's got something left in the tank though and I'll die on that hill.

Willie Snead signed a 1 year 6 million dollar deal.  He's also 28 and has no injury history whatsoever.  You're calling for a multi-year deal for a 32 year old, oft-injured AJ Green, and at a higher amount.  It's insanity.

Not only does Snead have a much better catch % (75 to 45), he's averaging 4 yards more a catch (14 to 10).  He's also playing in an offense that's 31st in the league in pass attempts (less opportunites), while  AJ Green is playing in an offense that's 2nd in attempts (more opportunites).  Throw in the difference in TD's (3 to 0), and it's not even close. 

Corey Davis is still on his rookie deal.  I don't how you're trying establish the market for AJ Green by using a contract that was inked by 5th overall draft pick in 2017. 

And better across the board doesn't really do the disparity justice IMO.  Cory Davis has put those numbers up in 2 less games played.  25% more in yardage, 25% in YPR, 25% more in catch%, all the while playing in 20% less games.

Bernard Perriman is yet another short term deal. 1 year 6 mil + incentives up to 8. He's also signed it at the age of 26.

Cordalle Patterson signed a 2 year 10 million dollar deal (5 mil per) at the age of 26.  He's another player who doesn't help set the market for a soon to be 32 year old AJ Green.

There's a very good chance that all four of these guys are gone from their current teams next season too.  Snead's 1 year is up, Perriman's 1 year is up, Patterson's 2 year is up, and Davis option wasn't picked up.  None of these guys are examples of players that have been made a long term priority by their respective teams, and they're all under the age of 30.

[Whatever]

(11-19-2020, 03:48 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: Will admit, I completely forgot about the dumpster-fire at QB for 2 of those 3 years, so yeah, that's on me.

Still doesn't mean he's done.

Anyways, 3 years at 20 mil puts him somewhere between Willie Snead and Perriman:

Snead: 33 25 356 14.2 3 34 2.8 39.6 Much better catch% and 3 TDs, otherwise the same.
Corey Davis: 48 34 436 12.8 3 38 4.9 62.3 Better across the board.
Perriman: 24 16 219 13.7 2 50 3.2 43. Still better.

So yeah, I probably overvalued him a bit; would need to go under the 6 mil tier then, I guess, which puts him on par with Amendola and Patterson (who isn't really a typical WR).

Still think he's got something left in the tank though and I'll die on that hill.

He is 159th out of 162 qualifying players in yards/target.  I mistyped 158th earlier.  That is worst in the league amongst WR's and it isn't even close.  He averages 4.6 yards/target.  The next worst WR is Nkeal Harry, ranked 143rd and averaging 5.4 yards/target, nearly a yard more.

The only reason he is putting up anything resembling WR3 numbers is he is getting an insane number of targets given his production.  You can get any WR ok looking production stats if you force feed them the ball enough.