10 Things I Think I Know

[MileHighGrowler]

(12-23-2020, 04:58 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: both have had flashes... Defense has been more consistent it seems

I would agree that the defense has been more consistent.  And that Lou has done a better job on his side of the ball than Zac and the other O coaches.  

But I don't think Lou has gotten the production out of the team that he should have.  Seeing what Dunlap is doing since his change this season could mean that Dunlap gave up on the team.  Or it could mean he wasn't being utilized properly, which is a fail.  

[wildcatnku24]

(12-23-2020, 05:01 PM)MileHighGrowler Wrote: I would agree that the defense has been more consistent.  And that Lou has done a better job on his side of the ball than Zac and the other O coaches.  

But I don't think Lou has gotten the production out of the team that he should have.  Seeing what Dunlap is doing since his change this season could mean that Dunlap gave up on the team.  Or it could mean he wasn't being utilized properly, which is a fail.  

OR option C: he just refused to play anything other than his way.  It's somewhat related to option A,  but it's the option I believe most.  I don't think Carlos was the type to quit on anything, but i could see him saying "man, I've had great success doing what I do how I do it, lemme do that" .  If I were a coach he'd be gone too.  

[MileHighGrowler]

(12-23-2020, 05:25 PM)wildcatnku24 Wrote: OR option C: he just refused to play anything other than his way.  It's somewhat related to option A,  but it's the option I believe most.  I don't think Carlos was the type to quit on anything, but i could see him saying "man, I've had great success doing what I do how I do it, lemme do that" .  If I were a coach he'd be gone too.  

That's certainly possible.  But if you're a coach and you're not getting the best production out of a player and can adjust to get better production but don't, aren't you just as bad in the pride and ego game?  We all talk a lot of coaching to player strengths on the offensive side of the ball.  Gio does A really well, B is where Boyd shines, C is the type of blocking scheme that this OL excels in.  Why should it be different on the defense?  

[fredtoast]

(12-23-2020, 01:37 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: 10.) This board would be a much better place if we all just realized that everybody wants the same thing (for the Bengals to be successful).  We may disagree on how to get there, but just remember the person you're debating only wants to see the team be as good as they possibly can.

The problem is that it is hard to believe some people want the Bengals to be better when they bend over backwards to try and make the Bengals look as bad as possible.

It really seems like these people enjoy complaining more than really wanting the team to get better.

[Essex Johnson]

(12-23-2020, 01:37 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: 1.) No one draft pick alone is going to fix our problems, or is a guarantee. (Don't get too hung up on Sewell if we miss out)

2.) No one knows if Zac Taylor saved his job Monday Night.  Until the Browns/Blackburns speak it's all speculation at this point.

3.) We need OL help in Free Agency regardless if we draft Sewell.  You can love the idea of XSF and Spain starting, or you can dismiss big dollar free agency.  But we still, at the very least, need QUALITY and PROVEN depth.

4.) We can't count on Joe Burrow being back to form right away.  Even with an earliest recovery of 9 months, that still means a lot of missed offseason activities (OTA's, Minicamps, offseason throwing with receivers, part of training camp)  I'm not saying this to say it can't happen, I'm saying this to say it's not a guarantee.  

5.) WJIII needs to walk unless he commands less than 8 mil per.  We have two much invested in Waynes, and we already have a great safety combo of Bates and Bell.  Pouring that much money into the secondary is overkill.  Save the cash for free agency and for Bates next season.  WJIII can be a very good corner at times, but he can also be extremely frustating.  He's not a playermaker either.  Hasn't developed as well as I would have liked.  There's better uses of money.

6.) Carl Lawson is a MUST sign.  We've developed a nice player here.  We need to get better at rushing the passer.  Losing him makes us worse.  You can't preach about developing in house and keeping players and then letting guys like this walk.  Don't do to him what you did to Zeitler.

7.) Geno, Bobby Hart, Gio and CJ Uzomah are all must cuts if they're not willing to restructure their contracts.  I'll expend on this more if anyone thinks it really needs an explanation. (I don't think it does)

8.) Alex Erikson CANNOT be resigned.  He just can't.

9.) Lou Aranumo is a better DC than Zac is an OC.  I've seen a lot of people say that removing him would be a great start to fixing what ails this team.  Now, I'm not opposed to replacing him, but I think the offensive playcalling and scheme is a much more pressing matter.  The entire offsense needs overhauled, and we need a competent OC to do it.  This dink and dunk pass game, lack of identity and terrible Red Zone offense isn't going to cut it.

10.) This board would be a much better place if we all just realized that everybody wants the same thing (for the Bengals to be successful).  We may disagree on how to get there, but just remember the person you're debating only wants to see the team be as good as they possibly can.

PS I hope everyone here has a great holiday.

PPS Christmas Vacation > Home Alone And it's not even close

Great job some differences of what I think I know
2. ZT was not in danger of losing his job from any journalist source really
4. I would add we need to add a good veteran QB and still win games 
7.  Hart contract is not a bad contract if you look at others lineman in his price range, he had improved PFF every year and with how thin we are at Oline should be kept...
9.  Red zone and 3rd down percentage was a combo failure of ZT and Burrow .. neither did a good job 

[*Synric*]

Unless they are going to target a TE early in the draft it is not a great year to cut CJ Uzomah. Now 2022 Free Agency TE class is deep.

[*bfine32*]

(12-23-2020, 07:35 PM)Synric Wrote: Unless they are going to target a TE early in the draft it is not a great year to cut CJ Uzomah. Now 2022 Free Agency TE class is deep.

Who knows. Maybe injury concern will drop Brevin Jordan. 

[Wes Mantooth]

(12-23-2020, 07:35 PM)Synric Wrote: Unless they are going to target a TE early in the draft it is not a great year to cut CJ Uzomah. Now 2022 Free Agency TE class is deep.

Market price currently being set for Hunter Henry is around 8 mil per.  Would be a huge upgrade for only a couple mil more.

And I'm not so sure we can't replace Uzomah's production with a 3rd or 4th round rookie either.  Uzomah is a guy who's had 1 400 yard season (super low bench mark) in 6 years.  Now he's coming off an achilies tear.

To each their own, but I'll take eithe of the following alternatives:

1.) Spend 2 or 3 million more on the position and get a huge upgrade in Hunter Henry.
2.) Use a mid round pick on a TE and use the savings to spend elsewhere.  Production most likely a wash
3.) Trade for someone like Cameron Brate, OJ Howard, or David Njoku.  (Draft pick most likely in the 4-6 round range)

*Note both Howard and Njoku are going into their last years of their deals, and they're each due the cap savings we'd gain by cuttin Uzomah (6 mil).  You could easily entice them with a nice little signing bonus to restructure their deals and give you a lowered priced on a 2 or 3 year deal. 

To each their own, but I always have one simple question when it comes to guys who get brought up like Uzomah:  Would any other team pay this player as much as what we'd save by releasing them?

---Would anyone pay CJ Uzomah 6 mil on the open market on a 1 year deal?

---Would anyone pay Geno Atkins 10 mil on the open market on a 1 year deal?

---Would anyone pay Gio Bernard 5 mil on the open market on a 1 year deal?

If your answer is no, or "hell no" in Uzomah's case, then why should we?
 

[BengalsRocker]

(12-23-2020, 08:19 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Market price currently being set for Hunter Henry is around 8 mil per.  Would be a huge upgrade for only a couple mil more.

And I'm not so sure we can't replace Uzomah's production with a 3rd or 4th round rookie either.  Uzomah is a guy who's had 1 400 yard season (super low bench mark) in 6 years.  Now he's coming off an achilies tear.

To each their own, but I'll take eithe of the following alternatives:

1.) Spend 2 or 3 million more on the position and get a huge upgrade in Hunter Henry.
2.) Use a mid round pick on a TE and use the savings to spend elsewhere.  Production most likely a wash
3.) Trade for someone like Cameron Brate, OJ Howard, or David Njoku.  (Draft pick most likely in the 4-6 round range)

*Note both Howard and Njoku are going into their last years of their deals, and they're each due the cap savings we'd gain by cuttin Uzomah (6 mil).  You could easily entice them with a nice little signing bonus to restructure their deals and give you a lowered priced on a 2 or 3 year deal. 

To each their own, but I always have one simple question when it comes to guys who get brought up like Uzomah:  Would any other team pay this player as much as what we'd save by releasing them?

---Would anyone pay CJ Uzomah 6 mil on the open market on a 1 year deal?

---Would anyone pay Geno Atkins 10 mil on the open market on a 1 year deal?

---Would anyone pay Gio Bernard 5 mil on the open market on a 1 year deal?

If your answer is no, or "hell no" in Uzomah's case, then why should we?
 

Like I said in another thread it seems like the importance of a TE as a receiving threat has fell off a cliff in Zac's offense.

Uz is the only TE with a TD !

Like you've stated before Sample is a bum.

I'm just not sure what ZT's use of a TE is going to be anyway.

[BengalsRocker]

(12-23-2020, 04:27 PM)CorpusChristiBengal Wrote: Agree with all, Anarumo is the fall guy too much, he is a fine, serviceable NFL level DC and that's more than I can say for a lot of our coaching staff. Insider journalists have also implied that Zac's seat was hotter than previously thought, at least more than national media and fans think.

PS: The Ref/Hostile Hostages is sooooooo underrated as a Christmas movie.

Rep for The Ref !

Such a shame the reputation of Kevin Spacey now. 

Such a great actor.

[impactplaya]

(12-23-2020, 03:53 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: That's fair.  As I was writing it I knew that it might sound it unequal or that it was applying that logic to one player and not the other.

Here's the thing though, I don't really think WJIII has completely lived up to his draft position or where we expected him to be.  He had a great year a couple years ago, and a down year last season.  I'd say this season has been a mixed bag.  He's looked very good at times, but not so great other times.

His strong suit is man coverage, but he's weak in zone.  He doesn't make big plays.  He can be inconsistent.  These are my gripes.

Lawson fills a position we have to have.  We've developed a mid round player into an above average starter.  Where we're at now with him is pretty much an ideal scenario as far development is concerned.  He's paying off.

The problem with WJII is not only the money you have to commited to Waynes (16 mil) and Bell (6 mil), it's that you have Bates coming right around the corner.  He's going to be due a big contract, and that contract could very well get worked this offseason, as he's going into his final year.

So let's just say we lock up WJII over my maximum 8 mil I floated.  Let's put him at a nice even 10 just for discussion's sake.  You'd have 32 million commited to Waynes, WJIII and Bell in 2021, with Bates still needing a new deal.  How much are you willing to invest in your secondary?

Bates is currently looking at a raise of 10-13 million (fwiw, 14 mil is the going rate for top safties).  At that point, with a WJIII signing, you're talking 42-45 million dollars invested into two CB's and 2 safties.  That's almost 1/4 of a salary cap.

The easy answer some may float is that we just get out of Waynes contract after 2021.  He'll still carry 5 million in dead cap with an early out.  And are we even sure that WJIII is better than Waynes?  If he is, then why didn't we give him the new deal last year and pass on Waynes?

The question is, is WJIII so good that we can't afford to move on?  I just don't think he is.  Pair Waynes with a corner like we did with Leon Hall, PacMan Jones.  A cheaper vet.  We cannot afford to pay out so much to corners when we need OL help, DL help, another WR, another LB, and preferbably a TE.

To each their own...

William Jackson is expendable.
Im tired of seeing guys on this defense ALMOST make plays
Almost pick the ball off....almost sack the QB....almost recover the fumble. Almost wrap the ball carrier up.

This defense needs finishers.plain and simple.this defense wont get back to a playoff level defense until it can find finishers 
At all 3 levels.

Jackson is not worth the $$$$ his agent thinks he is worth.
Hes not a playmaker. Hes not a difference maker.
Heck Ive seen better CBs get moved to other teams.
Marcus Peters is 20x the CB WJ3 is. 
Did it affect the Chiefs on defense and their Super Bowl path.nope. 

[Nicomo Cosca]

(12-23-2020, 06:16 PM)fredtoast Wrote: The problem is that it is hard to believe some people want the Bengals to be better when they bend over backwards to try and make the Bengals look as bad as possible.

It really seems like these people enjoy complaining more than really wanting the team to get better.

They’re on their 5th losing season in a row. Nobody needs to work to make them look any worse than they actually are.

[jfkbengals]

(12-23-2020, 08:19 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: To each their own, but I always have one simple question when it comes to guys who get brought up like Uzomah:  Would any other team pay this player as much as what we'd save by releasing them?

---Would anyone pay CJ Uzomah 6 mil on the open market on a 1 year deal?

---Would anyone pay Geno Atkins 10 mil on the open market on a 1 year deal?

---Would anyone pay Gio Bernard 5 mil on the open market on a 1 year deal?

If your answer is no, or "hell no" in Uzomah's case, then why should we?
 

I think most teams that do not have a bonafide star at tight end would be willing to pay $6mil to CJ.  It is a fair salary for a reliable tight end.  Until this season, he has stayed healthy and able to make a play when called upon.  Keep in mind that the average starting TE salary is $10mil.

I strongly believe Geno would get a contract worth $10mil with incentives.  I would think he would get between $3-5 as a base, with playing time, individual performance, and team performance incentives making up the difference.

I strongly believe most teams would be willing to drop $5m on Gio for a single season as a bridge and mentor to a high round rookie, or if they have an entrenched starter with question marks due to injury.

[Wes Mantooth]

(12-24-2020, 06:48 PM)jfkbengals Wrote: 1.)  Keep in mind that the average starting TE salary is $10mil.

2.) I strongly believe Geno would get a contract worth $10mil with incentives.  I would think he would get between $3-5 as a base, with playing time, individual performance, and team performance incentives making up the difference.

3.) I strongly believe most teams would be willing to drop $5m on Gio for a single season as a bridge and mentor to a high round rookie, or if they have an entrenched starter with question marks due to injury.

1.) I mean, this isn't close to true at all.  The 3rd highest paid Tight End in the league is only making 10.6 (Hunter Henry).   Guys like Eric Ebron and Cameron Brate rank in the middle at around 6.

2.) Giving someone a 3-5 base with incentives is entitely different than giving someone a full 10 mil.  I'd glady give Geno a 3 mil deal with incentives.  But no one is signing him to a 1 year 10 million dollar contract.  Not a chance.

3.) Here's some names of running backs with their current salaries (none of these are rookie deals)...

Latavius Murray - 3.6
Matt Breida - 3.2
Raheem Mosert - 2.9
Carlos Hyde - 2.7
Leonard Fornette - 2.0


There is simpy no way Gio Bernard is worth anywhere close to 5 million dollars.  Austin Ekeler has a cap hit of 5 million dollars this year and 5.75 next year, with a 6 mil average over 4 years.  He signed that deal at the age of 24, coming off 1,500 yards from scrimmage, and 11 TD's.

Why would anyone pay Gio Bernard "Austin Ekeler type of money"?

[jfkbengals]

(12-24-2020, 07:50 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: 1.) I mean, this isn't close to true at all.  The 3rd highest paid Tight End in the league is only making 10.6 (Hunter Henry).   Guys like Eric Ebron and Cameron Brate rank in the middle at around 6.

2.) Giving someone a 3-5 base with incentives is entitely different than giving someone a full 10 mil.  I'd glady give Geno a 3 mil deal with incentives.  But no one is signing him to a 1 year 10 million dollar contract.  Not a chance.

3.) Here's some names of running backs with their current salaries (none of these are rookie deals)...

Latavius Murray - 3.6
Matt Breida - 3.2
Raheem Mosert - 2.9
Carlos Hyde - 2.7
Leonard Fornette - 2.0


There is simpy no way Gio Bernard is worth anywhere close to 5 million dollars.  Austin Ekeler has a cap hit of 5 million dollars this year and 5.75 next year, with a 6 mil average over 4 years.  He signed that deal at the age of 24, coming off 1,500 yards from scrimmage, and 11 TD's.

Why would anyone pay Gio Bernard "Austin Ekeler type of money"?

You're right.  Ian't find where I saw that when I searched it, but based on other links I'm seeing this morning it most likely was saying the average for the Franchise Tag and I overlooked that part (or it wasn't clearly referenced as such).  I can't find the actual average, and don't want to spend the time doing the math at this time...

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(12-23-2020, 01:37 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: 1.) No one draft pick alone is going to fix our problems, or is a guarantee. (Don't get too hung up on Sewell if we miss out)

2.) No one knows if Zac Taylor saved his job Monday Night.  Until the Browns/Blackburns speak it's all speculation at this point.

3.) We need OL help in Free Agency regardless if we draft Sewell.  You can love the idea of XSF and Spain starting, or you can dismiss big dollar free agency.  But we still, at the very least, need QUALITY and PROVEN depth.

4.) We can't count on Joe Burrow being back to form right away.  Even with an earliest recovery of 9 months, that still means a lot of missed offseason activities (OTA's, Minicamps, offseason throwing with receivers, part of training camp)  I'm not saying this to say it can't happen, I'm saying this to say it's not a guarantee.  

5.) WJIII needs to walk unless he commands less than 8 mil per.  We have two much invested in Waynes, and we already have a great safety combo of Bates and Bell.  Pouring that much money into the secondary is overkill.  Save the cash for free agency and for Bates next season.  WJIII can be a very good corner at times, but he can also be extremely frustating.  He's not a playermaker either.  Hasn't developed as well as I would have liked.  There's better uses of money.

6.) Carl Lawson is a MUST sign.  We've developed a nice player here.  We need to get better at rushing the passer.  Losing him makes us worse.  You can't preach about developing in house and keeping players and then letting guys like this walk.  Don't do to him what you did to Zeitler.

7.) Geno, Bobby Hart, Gio and CJ Uzomah are all must cuts if they're not willing to restructure their contracts.  I'll expend on this more if anyone thinks it really needs an explanation. (I don't think it does)

8.) Alex Erikson CANNOT be resigned.  He just can't.

9.) Lou Aranumo is a better DC than Zac is an OC.  I've seen a lot of people say that removing him would be a great start to fixing what ails this team.  Now, I'm not opposed to replacing him, but I think the offensive playcalling and scheme is a much more pressing matter.  The entire offsense needs overhauled, and we need a competent OC to do it.  This dink and dunk pass game, lack of identity and terrible Red Zone offense isn't going to cut it.

10.) This board would be a much better place if we all just realized that everybody wants the same thing (for the Bengals to be successful).  We may disagree on how to get there, but just remember the person you're debating only wants to see the team be as good as they possibly can.

PS I hope everyone here has a great holiday.

PPS Christmas Vacation > Home Alone And it's not even close

Great post. Hope you had a nice holiday season.

Agree 100% on #1 (1 pick not a cureall), #3 (need a FA OL regardless of pick), #4 (Burrow may not beready for opener), #6 (sign Lawson), and #10 (board). That's 5/10.

On point #2, the team has spoken on ZT since the opening post, and he'll be back.

I will dispute point #9 a bit. We scored 30+ points in four of Burrow's nine complete games, and 27 in another. All with a rookie QB and no camp to speak of. The defense has sucked vs pretty much every team that isn't awful on O (pre-Herbert SD, Philly, Wash, Giants) except for the Titans/Steelers wins. 

Mostly agree on WJ3. But I might be willing to change course depending on how the draft and FA play out. If we land Surtain then he's gone. If we trade down for multiple picks, strikeout on FA OL, or generally have a lot of space due to other moves (Hart, AJ, etc), I might be willing to go $10 mil on WJ3. Phillips' recent good play makes the decision easier. Though if we loose Alexander & do not draft a CB high, I am more willing to pay him.

Flatly disagree on Erickson. He is a perfectly acceptable backup slot receiver for cheap. AJ, Ross, and maybe Thomas are the guys I'd replace first. Boyd, Higgins, and Tate are your keepers. Erickson next. If AJ will settle for a shorter term deal for cheap-ish, I'd consider it. No way I keep 7 WRs next year.

Mixed bag on the others. Gio is well worth his money. I am more than willing to give Atkins a shot next to Reader, a shot after getting healthy, and/or a shot with a new DC. Plus he has $5 mil in dead cap, so while the savings are considerable, there is a hit. CJ & Hart are low level starter quality types. A tad overpaid. But if there is no upgrade coming, they are still starters. I do not want to downgrade just to downgrade. And OL depth is paramount. Worth a shot on restructuring.

[fredtoast]

(12-24-2020, 07:50 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote:  Austin Ekeler has a cap hit of 5 million dollars this year and 5.75 next year, with a 6 mil average over 4 years.  He signed that deal at the age of 24, coming off 1,500 yards from scrimmage, and 11 TD's.

Why would anyone pay Gio Bernard "Austin Ekeler type of money"?

Seriously, man, WTF are you talking about?  Bengals aren't paying Gio anywhere close to "Austin Ekeler type money"

Austin Ekeler....4 years $24.5 million....$9.5 million cash this year

Gio Bernard......2 year $9.7 million.......$4.1 million cash this year

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

Gio will still be here . . . they'll lean on him to extend to knock the number down, but he wasn't signed for his production. He was signed because he's a Hell of a team mate. Reggie Kelly was there for years because of that exact same reason. Pat MaCafee has talked about the value of having good locker room guys for years. Gio is one of the "Old Heads" that keeps the locker room from splitting when things go bad. There are no stats for that

There's a reason these guys below bounce around, because they're not leaders like Gio. Whether you guys like it or not, guys on this team look up to Gio. Some guys are leaders and some guys are merely followers. Who looks up to these guys other than practice squad players?

Latavius Murray - 3.6
Matt Breida - 3.2
Raheem Mosert - 2.9
Carlos Hyde - 2.7
Leonard Fornette - 2.0 - Went from a top player to an afterthought in an instant. Attitude isn't everything but it is a big chunk of being a professional athlete where the average career lasts 2 to 4 years.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(01-02-2021, 02:24 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Flatly disagree on Erickson. He is a perfectly acceptable backup slot receiver for cheap. AJ, Ross, and maybe Thomas are the guys I'd replace first. Boyd, Higgins, and Tate are your keepers. Erickson next. If AJ will settle for a shorter term deal for cheap-ish, I'd consider it. No way I keep 7 WRs next year.

Yeah, I don't get all of the hate for Erickson. He's not starter material or elite but he's a gamer. I agree with almost all of your post, only difference is that I'd dump Geno. Believe it or not, I love watching Geno play, but they've played better with Daniels replacing him.

[fredtoast]

(01-02-2021, 11:03 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: Gio will still be here . . . they'll lean on him to extend to knock the number down, but he wasn't signed for his production. He was signed because he's a Hell of a team mate. Reggie Kelly was there for years because of that exact same reason. Pat MaCafee has talked about the value of having good locker room guys for years. Gio is one of the "Old Heads" that keeps the locker room from splitting when things go bad. There are no stats for that

There's a reason these guys below bounce around, because they're not leaders like Gio. Whether you guys like it or not, guys on this team look up to Gio. Some guys are leaders and some guys are merely followers. Who looks up to these guys other than practice squad players?

Latavius Murray - 3.6
Matt Breida - 3.2
Raheem Mosert - 2.9
Carlos Hyde - 2.7
Leonard Fornette - 2.0 - Went from a top player to an afterthought in an instant. Attitude isn't everything but it is a big chunk of being a professional athlete where the average career lasts 2 to 4 years.

Gio is overpaid, but not by enough that would justify cutting him or demanding he renegotiate his contract.

He will cost us $4.1 million next year.  On free agent market he gets 3 million.