How will comp Picks effect free agency for the Bengals?

[J24]

Both Jackson & Lawson are looking at big pay days if both of them leave during free agency and we don't sign any free agents(who isn't cut) we could potentially get 2 3rd RD picks in 2022. Plus AJ and Alexander could both fetch us two 5ths or 5th & a 6th depending how much they sign for. So we are looking at a potential of 4 picks added in 2022.

With that being said I just don't think we're going to be as active as some people are going to want us to be because of the comp pick situation. Maybe we sign a couple of guys who have been cut during the off-season but that's about it.

[wildcatnku24]

(01-09-2021, 01:42 AM)J24 Wrote: Both Jackson & Lawson are looking at big pay days if both of them leave during free agency and we don't sign any free agents(who isn't cut) we could potentially get 2 3rd RD picks in 2022. Plus AJ and Alexander could both fetch us two 5ths or 5th & a 6th depending how much they sign for.  So we are looking at a potential of 4 picks added in 2022.

With that being said I just don't think we're going to be as active as some people are going to want us to be because of the comp pick situation. Maybe we sign a couple of guys who have been cut during the off-season but that's about it.

I voted no, but I’ll admit I think it’s likely just ignorance on my part.  I chose no because I wouldn’t think that 2022 comp picks would dictate what we do now in 2021.  Am I crazy for thinking that?  I will completely admit, I’m not very familiar with comp picks as far as how they work.  I know we’ve had them in the past, and I’ve read countless posts that say we covet them (or that MB does), but other than that I’m pretty clueless.  Please advise!  Excited to learn!

[Joelist]

Keep in mind that the cap is headed down not up. That is going to mean smaller paydays because teams will have a lot less cap room.

[J24]

(01-09-2021, 02:37 AM)Joelist Wrote: Keep in mind that the cap is headed down not up. That is going to mean smaller paydays because teams will have a lot less cap room.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/12/06/optimism-emerges-regarding-2021-salary-cap/amp/

I think the cap thing is overblown it might be less than 2020 but not by whole lot. I just can't see the players agreeing to that low of a cap along with a 17 game season. 

[fredtoast]

I don't think the Bengals ever passed on a big name free agent because of comp picks.  Instead I believe they were always concentrating on mid to low level free agents, and if you are going to do that then it is smart to sign guys who have been cut.  They are still the same level as the other free agents you would be considering and they don't interfere with getting comp picks.

But last year proved that we are no longer just limiting our options to mid/low level free agents.

So the answer is "no".

[jfkbengals]

(01-09-2021, 02:48 AM)J24 Wrote: https://www.google.com/amp/s/profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/12/06/optimism-emerges-regarding-2021-salary-cap/amp/

I think the cap thing is overblown it might be less than 2020 but not by whole lot. I just can't see the players agreeing to that low of a cap along with a 17 game season. 

Agreed.  People latched onto the agreed minimum floor ($176m I think) as if that is the cap, but it is still an unknown value.  That minimum is a worst case value set up to spread the loss over a couple of years, instead of all in 2021.  There have been a number of games that were moved into stand alone slots due to schedule adjustments becaues of Covid, and I'm sure that brought in additional revenues from commercials.  That would help negate some of those expected losses.

(I never checked the link, so my apologies if that was already stated in there)

[Sled21]

(01-09-2021, 02:48 AM)J24 Wrote: https://www.google.com/amp/s/profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/12/06/optimism-emerges-regarding-2021-salary-cap/amp/

I think the cap thing is overblown it might be less than 2020 but not by whole lot. I just can't see the players agreeing to that low of a cap along with a 17 game season. 

I don't think the players are going to have much to say about it. What are they going to do, quit? They hurt their brand with a large percentage of people who will not even watch the NFL anymore, and now with the lost revenue from Covid the bottom line is way down. Contracts will follow that. Less revenue, lower contracts. Any idiot should have been able to see that coming. 

[J24]

(01-09-2021, 02:15 PM)Sled21 Wrote: I don't think the players are going to have much to say about it. What are they going to do, quit? They hurt their brand with a large percentage of people who will not even watch the NFL anymore, and now with the lost revenue from Covid the bottom line is way down. Contracts will follow that. Less revenue, lower contracts. Any idiot should have been able to see that coming. 

Well they could strike and not reach a deal that's very possible. Also the NFL is.about to get over a 100 Billion in new TV money they will be fine.

[fredtoast]

I thought the CBA tied the salary cap to a set percentage of revenue.

Why would they have to re-negotiate that every year. Are they doing it this year just because of the impact of the pandemic.

[J24]

(01-09-2021, 03:01 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I thought the CBA tied the salary cap to a set percentage of revenue.

Why would they have to re-negotiate that every year.  Are they doing it this year just because of the impact of the pandemic.

Usually it is but it was different because of the pandemic this season.

[Sled21]

(01-09-2021, 02:59 PM)J24 Wrote: Well they could strike and not reach a deal that's very possible. Also the NFL is.about to get over a 100 Billion in new TV money they will be fine.

Yeah, they can strike and marquis players will be fine, while the majority of the league would be hurt, since the average NFL career is something like 4 years. And we all know how long it took MLB to recover from their strike. Add a strike, by rich athletes, and turn even more viewers off. Besides, most of the players make so much they really are more concerned with where they are paid against their peers than they are with the bottom line. Sure, they want as much as they can get, but if the whole league is affected by the lower cap, I don't know that they would strike over it.

[SunsetBengal]

(01-09-2021, 03:01 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I thought the CBA tied the salary cap to a set percentage of revenue.

Why would they have to re-negotiate that every year.  Are they doing it this year just because of the impact of the pandemic.

I would think that self generated revenue from ticket sales would be a factor in the total revenue pie chart.  

[phil413]

(01-09-2021, 02:51 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I don't think the Bengals ever passed on a big name free agent because of comp picks.  Instead I believe they were always concentrating on mid to low level free agents, and if you are going to do that then it is smart to sign guys who have been cut.  They are still the same level as the other free agents you would be considering and they don't interfere with getting comp picks.

But last year proved that we are no longer just limiting our options to mid/low level free agents.

So the answer is "no".

This is a good take on why they've done this in the past.  Quality OL don't just get cut like they used to.  You also can't strike out and force yourself to take OL with 2 of the first 3 picks.  If comp picks is the plan, even by default, you plan to fail. 

[CanadianBengal]

(01-09-2021, 01:42 AM)J24 Wrote: Both Jackson & Lawson are looking at big pay days if both of them leave during free agency and we don't sign any free agents(who isn't cut) we could potentially get 2 3rd RD picks in 2022. Plus AJ and Alexander could both fetch us two 5ths or 5th & a 6th depending how much they sign for.  So we are looking at a potential of 4 picks added in 2022.

With that being said I just don't think we're going to be as active as some people are going to want us to be because of the comp pick situation. Maybe we sign a couple of guys who have been cut during the off-season but that's about it.

With the holes in this roster even before losing WJIII, Lawson and Alender --there is NO way the front office cannot be very active in free agency. Most teams do not have cap space and Bengals do. Should be aiming for the players who fit the scheme and are good value for money. If it is a cut guy --fine --if it is a free agent that is great too - but they had better be planning on FA looking like it did last year with a substantive influx of new talent and positive attitudes 

[J24]

(01-09-2021, 07:06 PM)phil413 Wrote: This is a good take on why they've done this in the past.  Quality OL don't just get cut like they used to.  You also can't strike out and force yourself to take OL with 2 of the first 3 picks.  If comp picks is the plan, even by default, you plan to fail. 

1.) Every team in the NFL uses this method it really isn't that bad of a strategy it just isn't that sexy of one.

2.) I disagree that there won't be good players cut there usually is. For example the Giants could reasonably cut Kevin Zeitler ( Giants would save 12 Million) and the Raiders could cut a guy like Tyrell Williams(Raiders would save 11.6 Million). Both guys would be instant cheap quality starters here at two needs positions.

[*ochocincos*]

I imagine there's a reason the highest comp pick you can get is Pick 97. They didn't want teams intentionally not signing FAs to get really high draft picks. A 3rd round comp is nothing to get excited about. Not a big chance that pick turns into a good starter down the line.

[J24]

(01-09-2021, 07:47 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I imagine there's a reason the highest comp pick you can get is Pick 97. They didn't want teams intentionally not signing FAs to get really high draft picks. A 3rd round comp is nothing to get excited about. Not a big chance that pick turns into a good starter down the line.

You are looking at a quality starter/ high level backup at that position. 

[Wes Mantooth]

Compensatory picks should never factor into choosing which free agents most help your team.

1.) This team desperately needs to have real success in 2021.  Potential picks in 2022 do nothing to help them right the wrongs of these last few years.

2.) Compensatory picks are FAR from guarantees.  You're talking a 3rd here, maybe a 5th here, etc.  Even if you getting lucky enough to hit on one you probably won't see starter help that will greatly improve your roster for 2 or 3 years down the line.

3.) The compensatory is the most confusing forumula ever.  Why?  Because the NFL has never actually released it.  You can't just pencil in a 3rd for this player and a 5th for this player.  It's dependent on the contract they sign, and what other teams do.  It's also cumulative, not player by player.  If you lose 2 higher end free agents but sign 4 average free agents it equals out more than what OP suggests.

4.) With a decreased salary cap you expect a lot of teams to let their own free agents walk (in addition to cuts).  You'll also see reduced spending on players that aren't cream of the crop.  The market for 2nd and 3rd tier FA will be flooded with decent players.  Remember, they only award so many of these things.  If there's numerous teams losing FA's, and a player of AJ Green's current caliber signs a cheaper deal, I wouldn't expect that loss to go a long way into earning you a pick.

I'm sorry, but the fact we're even on here discussing whether we'll sign more players, or bank on comp picks is so sad.  Stockpiling comp picks was never supposed to be a strategy, no matter how much Geoff Hopson has tried to convince you so.  It's supposed to be a little bonus for when you suffer great losses due to being up against the cap.  It never should preclude you from bettering your team from year to year.

If this team has comp picks in mind heading into free agency then we're already dead in the water. 

[Bengal Dude]

It should play zero role in free agency, but some teams actually let it play a role, and yes the Bengals have been one of those teams. 

[TJHoushmandzadeh's Shiny Shoes]

(01-09-2021, 08:37 PM)Bengal Dude Wrote: It should play zero role in free agency, but some teams actually let it play a role, and yes the Bengals have been one of those teams. 

It should play a big role with teams planning for it years in advance. Sadly the Bengals have Duke Tobin lacking the foresight and Mike Brown wanting to hold onto fading stars rather than trade them at the deadline.

Ideally you manage this by one year on free agency spending and one year off, using the franchise tag to extend someone who'd fall in a free agency spending year or trading them away before the trade deadline when you're not competitive.

Compensatory picks are important - doubly so in the Bengals' case. Players leaving in free agency in 2021, attract a compensatory pick in 2022. These will be 3rd or 4th round picks so not someone you should necessarily be counting on relying in 2022 or 2023 but someone who might develop into a cost controlled starter in 2024 and 2025. Having cost controlled starters in 2025 is vital as that's when Burrow's salary goes stratospheric (they'd look to do a deal before then, hence 2024 being important too). Free agent signings are expensive. Draft picks are super cheap.

Of course the need to spend in free agency this year is because Tobin failed to collect any additional draft picks for last year's rebuild and only an extra 7th round pick for this year's draft. Had the likes of WJIII, Lawson, Green, Atkins, Billings, Eifert, Ross etc been traded for extra picks we wouldn't have so many holes to try and fill now in free agency.