Would you trade Burrow for Watson

[XenoMorph]

(01-13-2021, 05:23 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Also with Watson we know how he has recovered from a torn ACL. Not sure the board is giving Mikey sound advice.

Something about one in the hand is better than 2 in the bush.

Okay im thinking on it and im down as long as Zach is part of the trade and we get Watson a Head coach he wants like Bienemy

[J24]

(01-13-2021, 05:37 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Fun fact, 9 years ago we were debating on whether we would want to get Peyton Manning or keep rolling with Dalton.

2 totally different situations

1.) The Bengals had a championship level roster at the time of close to it.


2.) Peyton was a free agent vs Watson who we would have to give up multiple picks for

3.) Burrow is a generational talent vs Andy who was a 2nd RD pick.

[*Nately120*]

(01-13-2021, 06:25 PM)J24 Wrote: 2 totally different situations

1.) The Bengals had a championship level roster at the time of close to it.


2.) Peyton was a free agent vs Watson who we would have to give up multiple picks for

3.) Burrow is a generational talent vs Andy who was a 2nd RD pick.

I'm aware of all these things.  Though I'd debate with #1, now that I think of it.  The 2011 Bengals were 9-7 and only beat a single team with a winning record (I think...it's been a while).  It was encouraging, but we made the playoffs and got bumped by TJ Yates.  Championship it was not.

[Wes Mantooth]

People forget that Deshaun Watson wasn't that great last season (2019). He's was good no doubt, but not elite.

He was 13th in yards. He was 11th in TD's. And he threw for the 11th most INT's. His stat-line looked like this:

3,852 yards, 26 TD's, and 12 INT's. He added a very, very respectable 443 on the ground. (Still nowhere close to a Lamar Jackson)

Is that an elite QB? I don't think so. Let's compare him to Kyler Murray (a rookie) that same season:

Watson --- 3,852 yards, 26 TD's, 12 INT's, 443 yards rushing
Murray ---- 3,722 yards, 20 TD's, 12 INT's, 544 yards rushing

That pretty damn close. Total yards are about identical, INT's are identical, with Watson throwing for 6 more TD's. Against a rookie that joined the worst team in the league.

Now, you might be saying "Wes, 2019 wasn't a typical year for Watson. It was anamoly." Well, lets look at the year prior (2018)...

4,165 yards, 26 TD's, 9 INT's, and 551 yards on the ground.

It's better, but it's still relatively close. Yardage was up about 8%, but TD's remanined the same. INT's were slightly down. Rushing yardage was in the same ballpark with the year I referenced him and Murray.

He was 11th in passing yards, 12th in TD's, and the threw for the 23rd most INT's. (Better, but still comparable to above)

So, looking at the two years preceeding this season, I'm not seeing this "elite" QB people are referencing. Not in 2 of his 3 years he's been starting at least.

This year, however, he was very good. I stil don't have him in my top 3 though (Mahomes, Rodgers, Wilson). And I'm not so sure he's better than Allen either.

I'm not sure exactly where that leaves us, but I think it's worth mentioning. Had the stat-line this year been the norm than I would easily insert him into the class of a Russell Wilson, but it's not. The fact is, all things considered, he's been somewhere between a 5-10 ranked QB through his first 3 years.

Why would any team trade away a QB they just used the #1 overall pick on, who more than lived up to his draft postion, and immediately trade him away for a QB that's makes a ton more than him? It makes absolutely zero sense.

I gotta be honest, I really don't know why this thread even exists. Not only is not plausible for the Bengals to do this, it's a ridiculous propsal in general. No team trades away a #1 overall QB who had the start their career that Joe did in year 2. It's an absurd premise, and a complete waste of time even as a hypothetical.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-13-2021, 06:34 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: People forget that Deshaun Watson wasn't that great last season (2019). He's was good no doubt, but not elite.

He was 13th in yards.  He was 11th in TD's.  And he threw for the 11th most INT's.  His stat-line looked like this:

3,852 yards, 26 TD's, and 12 INT's.  He added a very, very respectable 443 on the ground. (Still nowhere close to a Lamar Jackson)

Is that an elite QB?  I don't think so.  Let's compare him to Kyler Murray (a rookie) that same season:

Watson --- 3,852 yards, 26 TD's, 12 INT's,  443 yards rushing
Murray ---- 3,722 yards, 20 TD's, 12 INT's, 544 yards rushing

That pretty damn close.  Total yards are about identical, INT's are identical, with Watson throwing for 6 more TD's.  Against a rookie that joined the worst team in the league.

Now, you might be saying "Wes, 2019 wasn't a typical year for Watson.  It was anamoly."  Well, lets look at the year prior (2018)...

4,165 yards, 26 TD's, 9 INT's, and 551 yards on the ground.

It's better, but it's still relatively close.  Yardage was up about 8%, but TD's remanined the same.  INT's were slightly down.  Rushing yardage was in the same ballpark with the year I referenced him and Murray.

He was 11th in passing yards, 12th in TD's, and the threw for the 23rd most INT's.  (Better, but still comparable to above)

So, looking at the two years preceeding this season, I'm not seeing this "elite" QB people are referencing.  Not in 2 of his 3 years he's been starting at least.

This year, however, he was very good.  I stil don't have him in my top 3 though (Mahomes, Rodgers, Wilson).  And I'm not so sure he's better than Allen either.

I'm not sure exactly where that leaves us, but I think it's worth mentioning.  Had the stat-line this year been the norm than I would easily insert him into the class of a Russell Wilson, but it's not.  The fact is, all things considered, he's been somewhere between a 5-10 ranked QB through his first 3 years.

Why would any team trade away a QB they just used the #1 overall pick on, who more than lived up to his draft postion, and immediately trade him away for a QB that's makes a ton more than him?  It makes absolutely zero sense.

I gotta be honest, I really don't know why this thread even exists. Not only is not plausible for the Bengals to do this, it's a ridiculous propsal in general.  No team trades away a #1 overall QB who had the start their career that Joe did in year 2.  It's an absurd premise, and a complete waste of time even as a hypothetical.

An awful lot of shitting on Watson while never once acknowledging that Watson's worst QB Rating year of 98.0 is still 8.2 points higher than Joe Burrow's year, and Watson has a career 104.5 QB Rating. Burrow threw 13 TDs in 10 games. That's 20.8 TDs in a 16 game season, yet once again you're shitting on Watson for having a 26 TD season.

Kid's only 1 year older than Burrow, so any talk about Burrow getting better with age and experience? Also applies to Watson. 

Burrow is real promising, but it's promise, not realized yet. But he wears the Bengals uniform, so of course it's ridiculous to even think about if you would trade him for a 25-year-old 3x Pro Bowl Top-5 QB? Lol

[J24]

(01-13-2021, 06:29 PM)Nately120 Wrote: I'm aware of all these things.  Though I'd debate with #1, now that I think of it.  The 2011 Bengals were 9-7 and only beat a single team with a winning record (I think...it's been a while).  It was encouraging, but we made the playoffs and got bumped by TJ Yates.  Championship it was not.

You add Peyton Manning to that roster in 2012-2015 the Superbowl is definitely in reach. Hell if Dalton doesn't get hurt in 15 we probably have a title.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(01-13-2021, 06:34 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Why would any team trade away a QB they just used the #1 overall pick on, who more than lived up to his draft postion, and immediately trade him away for a QB that's makes a ton more than him? It makes absolutely zero sense.

/thread

[SuperBowlBound!]

I would have no interest at all in having him as our QB. Why pay that much money when we have Burrow?

[*bfine32*]

(01-13-2021, 06:59 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: An awful lot of shitting on Watson while never once acknowledging that Watson's worst QB Rating year of 98.0 is still 8.2 points higher than Joe Burrow's year, and Watson has a career 104.5 QB Rating. Burrow threw 13 TDs in 10 games. That's 20.8 TDs in a 16 game season, yet once again you're shitting on Watson for having a 26 TD season.

Kid's only 1 year older than Burrow, so any talk about Burrow getting better with age and experience? Also applies to Watson. 

Burrow is real promising, but it's promise, not realized yet. But he wears the Bengals uniform, so of course it's ridiculous to even think about if you would trade him for a 25-year-old 3x Pro Bowl Top-5 QB? Lol

It's been a theme around here as long as I've been on the boards and that's been a good minute. 

Whenever you compare a board favorite to another elite prospect folks have to slam the prospect. I remember No way in hell would I trade Carson for Big Ben. Carson was a number 1OA.

Too often folks think you "don't like" a certain player when you make such threads. It's not "out of the blue"l it's current news. 

WTS. The thread was more to gauge folk's views and I appreciate how much they love JB; hell I LOVE JB. I just think Mikey may be getting some heart advice as opposed to head advice. 

Sure DW is costly; it's because he's an elite QB, but Houston has already paid a good portion of the contract and you have DW under contract for 5 years. DW would be on the "affordable" portion of his contract when it comes time to resign the likes of Tee Higgins, Jonah Williams, or the #5OA we take in the upcoming draft

[Essex Johnson]

Yes.. we beat Texans and as a whole are better off team .. Watson is a franchise QB right now, so though a cap hit.. we have a contender chance.. his skill sets are better than Burrowv especially with a below average line right now.....Burrow is "we hope " he produces as a franchise QB...

Done Deal

[wildcatnku24]

(01-13-2021, 08:30 PM)bfine32 Wrote: It's been a theme around here as long as I've been on the boards and that's been a good minute. 

Whenever you compare a board favorite to another elite prospect folks have to slam the prospect. I remember No way in hell would I trade Carson for Big Ben. Carson was a number 1OA.

Too often folks think you "don't like" a certain player when you make such threads. It's not "out of the blue"l it's current news. 

WTS. The thread was more to gauge folk's views and I appreciate how much they love JB; hell I LOVE JB. I just think Mikey may be getting some heart advice as opposed to head advice. 

Sure DW is costly; it's because he's an elite QB, but Houston has already paid a good portion of the contract and you have DW under contract for 5 years. DW would be on the "affordable" portion of his contract when it comes time to resign the likes of Tee Higgins, Jonah Williams, or the #5OA we take in the upcoming draft

This brought back memories of the old Carson vs. Big Ben threads in smack talk on the OG message board site.  What a time to be alive that was.

In any case, I voted NO, because I really like what Burrow means to this team as well as how he represents himself as well as OF COURSE his talent.  I think he could possibly be the best in the league in a few years.  

[Nicomo Cosca]

(01-13-2021, 10:27 PM)wildcatnku24 Wrote: This brought back memories of the old Carson vs. Big Ben threads in smack talk on the OG message board site.  What a time to be alive that was.

In any case, I voted NO, because I really like what Burrow means to this team as well as how he represents himself as well as OF COURSE his talent.  I think he could possibly be the best in the league in a few years.  

I’m a self admitted Burrow fan boy but he’s never going to be better than Mahomes. That guy is just on another level compared to everyone else. I thought Rodgers was going to be the most physically gifted QB I’d see in my lifetime. I was wrong.

PFF actually made a prediction that Burrow could be the 2nd best QB within 5 years, and I think that’s entirely possible.

[wildcatnku24]

(01-13-2021, 10:32 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I’m a self admitted Burrow fan boy but he’s never going to be better than Mahomes. That guy is just on another level compared to everyone else. I thought Rodgers was going to be the most physically gifted QB I’d see in my lifetime. I was wrong.

PFF actually made a prediction that Burrow could be the 2nd best QB within 5 years, and I think that’s entirely possible.

Yeah, you're probably right as far as Mahomes, that dude's just ridiculous.  But I have seen Burrow already doing some crazy throws on the run....  

Either way, 2nd best would be alright in my book!  

[Destro]

No. Watson has had his peak, I believe.

[*Nately120*]

(01-13-2021, 10:55 PM)Destro Wrote: No. Watson has had his peak, I believe.

That's a pretty high peak, though.  The guy was top 5 easily this year and with a HC change and a depleted roster.  If he goes to Miami or Chicago or Indy they should be pretty instantly relevant. 

Not saying we should drop Burrow and get him, but Watson is 25 and proven elite.  Burrow has to be top 3 or so as a QB next year to keep pace.  I hope he does. 

[TJHoushmandzadeh's Shiny Shoes]

(01-13-2021, 02:34 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I had Watson above Allen, especially since this is Allen's first year where he's truly been elite whereas Watson has been doing it since he came into the league and Watson still, statistically, outperformed Allen this year, but yea they're both easily in the top 5.

As good as Brandon was against Houston, I'd like to see him repeat it before anointing him top 5.

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-13-2021, 01:24 PM)bfine32 Wrote: The "big" off season talk in the NFL is Watson wants out on Houston. Mike Brown calls you and states:

"I've followed you on the message board and I am impressed with your football acumen; it appears second only to bfine's. The Texans have called and inquired if I'm willing to trade Joe Burrow for Deshaun Watson. Do you think I should do it?"




RULES:
No Zac sux answers
No They wouldn't do it answers
No counter trade answers
Simply would you do it and why/not

I think Watson is a hell of a QB.  And I think he would immediately be the best QB in the AFC North, but I still wouldn't make that trade.   I just feel like Joe is everything we want in a QB, and they have him on a rookie deal for three more years, assuming they make a new contact before year 5.  I think that highly of him, but Watson is a top 5 QB in this league right now.

While I believe it would be incredibly stupid for the Texans to trade him, I have seen incredibly stupid trades before.  I just hope he ends up in the NFC if he is traded.  I bet San Fran would do anything to have him, and I would be scared to death of that team.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-13-2021, 01:52 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Burrow is outstanding, but Watson is next level elite. I can't even think of 3 QBs in the NFL that are better than him. And I definitely can't think of 3 QBs that are better than him that are also as young as him.

The only downside to the trade is the increased cap hit, but with a QB like Watson, you can afford to skimp in a few areas.

Not jumping on you for your opinion, but this is the thought process that got them from a playoff team to a four win team.  And they actually gave up their first round pick this year (ended up being #3 overall...ouch) to get him a better LT.  They still won 4 games.  Russell Wilson is dealing with the same thing.

You are dead on, though, on your ranking of Watson.  He is incredible.  Hard to believe how he was crapped on coming out of Clemson.  I see a lot of similarities with Justin Fields.  Fields might be the most amazing athlete I have seen play QB in ages.  He just glides when he runs, but OSU wisely tried to make him more of a pocket passer to develop him, instead of just a running QB.  There have been plays where Fields handed the ball off, and actually caught his RB running down the field to block for him.  I have no idea what his 40 time will be, but he is going to be a stud in the NFL.  I just hope he doesn't end up in pitt.   

[Luvnit2]

(01-13-2021, 04:53 PM)bfine32 Wrote: As to the contract:

Of course it's expensive and our "best case' is that Joe will be equally expensive in a few years. A large part of the Watson contract was a $27,000,000 signing bonus; that's on Houston

As to the value:

The "hot talk is:
Dolphins for Tua, #18 this year, 1st rd 2022
Niners for First-round pick in 2021, second-round pick in 2021, first-round pick in 2022, second-round pick in 2023 and Jimmy Garoppolo

I did not weigh in yet on Watson for Burrow. No way, the cap hit alone makes it a bad deal, they would have to give me their 1st round pick in 2022 also to even consider it.

I think he stays in Houston, but if he leaves, I hope it is to a NFC team, Bears should do it. Skins should do it. 49ers should do it.

[CJD]

(01-14-2021, 09:28 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Not jumping on you for your opinion, but this is the thought process that got them from a playoff team to a four win team.  And they actually gave up their first round pick this year (ended up being #3 overall...ouch) to get him a better LT.  They still won 4 games.  Russell Wilson is dealing with the same thing.

You are dead on, though, on your ranking of Watson.  He is incredible.  Hard to believe how he was crapped on coming out of Clemson.  I see a lot of similarities with Justin Fields.  Fields might be the most amazing athlete I have seen play QB in ages.  He just glides when he runs, but OSU wisely tried to make him more of a pocket passer to develop him, instead of just a running QB.  There have been plays where Fields handed the ball off, and actually caught his RB running down the field to block for him.  I have no idea what his 40 time will be, but he is going to be a stud in the NFL.  I just hope he doesn't end up in pitt.   

True. But that situation in Houston was caused, in large part, by the incompetence of Bill O'Brien. The reason he had to trade a king's ransom for Tunsil was because, a few years earlier, they traded their pro bowl LT, Duane Brown for pennies on the dollar (a 2nd rounder and a 3rd rounder for an elite LT). This, obviously, left a massive hole on the line that they needed to fill, in desperation, with a guy in the last year of his deal. Since they just traded so many picks for him, he knew they needed to re-sign him at any cost and he gouged them for it (to the tune of 66 million dollars over 3 years). Brown, by the way, is still playing at a high level in Seattle and only costs them 34.5 million over 3 years.

Then, they traded their best receiver for a washed up RB with a huge salary (11 million in 2020, 9 million in 2021) and a 2nd round pick. Then, in a draft filled with Wide Receiver talent, they traded their 2nd round pick for a WR with a contract worth 8 million in 2020, 12 million in 2021, 13 million in 2022 and 14 million in 2023. Don't get me wrong, Cooks is a fine WR but he's not elite and that money is absurd for what he provides, especially when they could have drafted Van Jefferson, Devin Duvernay or Denzel Mims with that pick and paid a fraction of that cost.

So, within 5 years, they threw away a pro bowl tackle, desperation signed another tackle to whatever number he asked for, threw away their best offensive weapon, picked up an insanely overpriced RB and then traded a high value pick in a WR heavy draft for an overpaid WR.

The reason I say all this is, the Texans' falling to a 4 win team doesn't really have anything to do with his contract. They were a mess before he even signed the contract. They fell to a 4 win team because Bill O'Brien made, conceivably, every awful decision a GM can possibly make in regards to player personnel before finally being fired.

I really enjoyed watching this video about the team's collapse and how it was caused by BoB