PFF ranks Jackson #1 FA CB, Lawson #3 Edge

[fredtoast]

You all know I don't put a lot of value in PFF individual player rankings, but I am throwing this out there for discussion

William Jackson is ranked as the 16th best overall FA and #1 CB.

Carl Lawson is ranked as the 28th best overall and #3 Edge (DE/OLB).

These guys are going to get paid.

[Essex Johnson]

(02-23-2021, 03:58 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You all know I don't put a lot of value in PFF individual player rankings, but I am throwing this out there for discussion

William Jackson is ranked as the 16th best overall FA and #1 CB.

Carl Lawson is ranked as the 28th best overall and #3 Edge (DE/OLB).

These guys are going to get paid.

Yes they are, I think fans of teams tend to undervalue their own players since they see every play and can be a bit biased by that.. I would not mind transition tagging Lawson myself

[*Synric*]

(02-23-2021, 05:41 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Yes they are, I think fans of teams tend to undervalue their own players since they see every play and can be a bit biased by that.. I would not mind transition tagging Lawson myself

I remember last offseason people flipped out when I suggested William Jackson was going to make at least 12mil per year.

[Murdock2420]

Going to be very difficult to sign both these guys to new contracts, and sadly losing one of them creates another hole we need to fill in the draft.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(02-23-2021, 03:58 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You all know I don't put a lot of value in PFF individual player rankings, but I am throwing this out there for discussion

William Jackson is ranked as the 16th best overall FA and #1 CB.

Carl Lawson is ranked as the 28th best overall and #3 Edge (DE/OLB).

These guys are going to get paid.

Pay Lawson, tag WJ3 is my vote.

[BengalsRocker]

I wouldn't like it, but it wouldn't surprise me if WJIII walks and they tag/sign Lawson.

Then drop back in the draft to pick Surtain.

Dropping back helps them pick another DE, WR, or O-lineman earlier.

Not a fan of this but understand it.



I'm more in the camp of loading up the offense(line, WR, TE)and work on D next season.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(02-23-2021, 05:41 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Yes they are, I think fans of teams tend to undervalue their own players since they see every play and can be a bit biased by that.. I would not mind transition tagging Lawson myself

I would argue it's widely the other way around on this board.

Think of all the threads about how "so-and-so late round/undrafted WR is going to be huge this year" or all the Dontay Moch/Margus Hunt hype, or how there were people who thought that Chase Coffman was going to go to Atlanta and become a star after the Bengals didn't retain him.

Heck, there's still people who thought that all John Ross needed was a new QB.


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That said, I am fine with letting both walk because Anarumo is hot garbage and there's no point in investing in players on defense until he's gone, and I think it'll be way too much money for a 1 INT CB and a 5 sack DE, both with questionable durability. Let someone else make those contract mistakes.

Also priority 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 this offseason should all be setting up Burrow to succeed offensively. Worry about the defense later.

[jfkbengals]

So you're saying it's a terrible year to need a good corner out of free agency....

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(02-23-2021, 08:24 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: That said, I am fine with letting both walk because Anarumo is hot garbage and there's no point in investing in players on defense until he's gone, and I think it'll be way too much money for a 1 INT CB and a 5 sack DE, both with questionable durability. Let someone else make those contract mistakes.

Also priority 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 this offseason should all be setting up Burrow to succeed offensively. Worry about the defense later.

You let both walk and our D goes from terrible to even worse under Lou. We are going to have to pay for pass rushers and a CB
anyways. Just because Lawson only got 5 sacks doesn't mean he doesn't collapse the pocket well and rush the passer. He is our 
best Lineman on D right now at this. Keeping Lawson is essential IMO.

Otherwise it is all on Burrow and the Offense to keep up in high scoring affairs and more likely for Burrow to get hurt once again.

Yes, we need to set up Burrow with a good O-line but we also have to upgrade the D-line to help take some pressure off of him.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(02-23-2021, 09:40 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: You let both walk and our D goes from terrible to even worse under Lou. We are going to have to pay for pass rushers and a CB
anyways. Just because Lawson only got 5 sacks doesn't mean he doesn't collapse the pocket well and rush the passer. He is our 
best Lineman on D right now at this. Keeping Lawson is essential IMO.

Otherwise it is all on Burrow and the Offense to keep up in high scoring affairs and more likely for Burrow to get hurt once again.

Yes, we need to set up Burrow with a good O-line but we also have to upgrade the D-line to help take some pressure off of him.

You keep them both and you're turning $45m in cap space into $15m while not getting even SLIGHTLY better anywhere on the team.

The Bengals were last in sacks in 2020. You're wanting to spend $15m-ish to stay last, versus not spending $15m and being... last. Lawson has 11.5 sacks over the last 2 years, 12.5 over the last 3 years. 2 of the top 3 cap hits in 2021 are already DL. If Anarumo can't do anything with that, tossing another $15m at it isn't the answer.

Meanwhile there are only 2 OL making at least $4m/yr, and only 1 making at least $5m/yr. That's stupid when you just spent a 1st overall pick on a QB. Zero resources should go to anything else until he's protected. Spend that $15m/yr on the best OL player you can get. At least then you have a CHANCE at this team having some kind of strength somewhere on it's roster.

- - - - - - -

Trae Waynes is going to be 29, has a $15.8m cap hit in 2021, has 2 INT the last 3 years, 0 Pro Bowls, 0 All-Pros. If you sign or tag WJ3, you're going to end up with a 28-year-old and 29-year-old CB duo, who cost $30-32m/yr, have 4 INT over the last 3 years COMBINED, 0 career Pro Bowls, and 0 career All-Pros. That does not sound like a successful team building strategy.

I understand respecting the advanced stats that are coming out as a reference point, but when you invest way too much money buying into advanced stats that tell you a player should be good rather than tangible results that show that a player is good, it's how you end up with a situation like the Reds did when they signed Homer Bailey because of his FIP. That's what I see when I see people arguing about giving $15m/yr+ to a 5 sack DE.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(02-23-2021, 10:26 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: You keep them both and you're turning $45m in cap space into $15m while not getting even SLIGHTLY better anywhere on the team.

The Bengals were last in sacks in 2020. You're wanting to spend $15m-ish to stay last, versus not spending $15m and being... last. Lawson has 11.5 sacks over the last 2 years, 12.5 over the last 3 years. 2 of the top 3 cap hits in 2021 are already DL. If Anarumo can't do anything with that, tossing another $15m at it isn't the answer.

Meanwhile there are only 2 OL making at least $4m/yr, and only 1 making at least $5m/yr. That's stupid when you just spent a 1st overall pick on a QB. Zero resources should go to anything else until he's protected. Spend that $15m/yr on the best OL player you can get. At least then you have a CHANCE at this team having some kind of strength somewhere on it's roster.

- - - - - - -

Trae Waynes is going to be 29, has a $15.8m cap hit in 2021, has 2 INT the last 3 years, 0 Pro Bowls, 0 All-Pros. If you sign or tag WJ3, you're going to end up with a 28-year-old and 29-year-old CB duo, who cost $30-32m/yr, have 4 INT over the last 3 years COMBINED, 0 career Pro Bowls, and 0 career All-Pros. That does not sound like a successful team building strategy.

I understand respecting the advanced stats that are coming out as a reference point, but when you invest way too much money buying into advanced stats that tell you a player should be good rather than tangible results that show that a player is good, it's how you end up with a situation like the Reds did when they signed Homer Bailey because of his FIP. That's what I see when I see people arguing about giving $15m/yr+ to a 5 sack DE.

Still think we need to keep Lawson, he isn't the reason we were last in the league in Sacks...

You don't lose you best pass rusher and get better on Defense. I do understand a lot of what you are saying and I want us to do 
what you say and get the best O-lineman out there. Or at least a couple good ones in Thuney and Daryl Williams/Wagner.

[schroomytunes]

The way FA is looking to me this year is that we are going to see alot of veterans getting released this year. Earlier I was on board with re-signing Lawson, but as the offseason is shaping up, I'm starting to think that letting them both go is the smarter play. Before you go and call me crazy here's my thinking:

1) Espn or whatever has them ranked #1/#3 at their respected positions, IMHO there are overrating them so let someone else pay top dollar, and we can sign replacements, draft, and use that savings elsewhere to bolster the roster.

2) both have injury histories, and tying up 12-15 in them is not good business. both should garner 3-4 rd comp picks, depending on who we sign.

3) There are FA's available and with our cap space we can sign others who fit or profile better:

DE- Justin Houston(Ind), Romeo Okwara (Det), Kerry Hyder (SF), Benson Mayowa(Sea) Dawauan Smoot(Jax) all are good and remember we have a new D-line coach this year.

CB-AJ Bouye(Den), Terrance Mitchell(Cle), Michael Davis(LAC), Kevin King(GB) Troy Hill(LAR), Shaquill Griffen(Sea)- these are decent #2 Cb's that we wont have to shell out top dollar for.

--all these guys can be had much cheaper than our own and probably produce just as good if not better!! Then use the savings to address the offensive line/ #3 WR.

[*jason*]

(02-25-2021, 04:14 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Still think we need to keep Lawson, he isn't the reason we were last in the league in Sacks...

You don't lose you best pass rusher and get better on Defense. I do understand a lot of what you are saying and I want us to do 
what you say and get the best O-lineman out there. Or at least a couple good ones in Thuney and Daryl Williams/Wagner.

Well you don't have 2 really good pass rushers in Dunlap and Lawson and expect to be last in sacks either. There is a disconnect on that side of the ball. It's trickling down from the top.

[fredtoast]

(02-23-2021, 10:26 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: You keep them both and you're turning $45m in cap space into $15m while not getting even SLIGHTLY better anywhere on the team.

But if you let them go the team gets worse.

(02-23-2021, 10:26 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: The Bengals were last in sacks in 2020. You're wanting to spend $15m-ish to stay last, versus not spending $15m and being... last.

Lawson and Jackson were not the main reason the Bengals were last in sacks in 2020.
And BTW the Bengals pass defense with Lawson and Jackson ranked 22nd in pass efficiency rating while, while the Bengals pass offense ranked 23rd with Burrow at QB.  Does that mean Burrow is expendable? 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(02-26-2021, 03:51 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Lawson and Jackson were not the main reason the Bengals were last in sacks in 2020.
And BTW the Bengals pass defense with Lawson and Jackson ranked 22nd in pass efficiency rating while, while the Bengals pass offense ranked 23rd with Burrow at QB.  Does that mean Burrow is expendable? 

Very Fred of you. Are either of them rookies? Or are they 4-5 year vets hitting FA?

While I like Burrow a lot, I was one of the handful of people who said they'd take a trade for Watson for Burrow. I think he will be great, but he isn't yet.

If Burrow is ready to hit FA 3-4 years from now and still hasn't had a breakout season (like Lawson and Jackson) then yes, he probably would be expendable then as well Mr Apples-to-Oranges.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(02-25-2021, 09:46 PM)jason Wrote: Well you don't have 2 really good pass rushers in Dunlap and Lawson and expect to be last in sacks either. There is a disconnect on that side of the ball. It's trickling down from the top.

Dunlap wasn't a really good pass rusher for us last year. Lawson was our best by far. I pay the man and hope Hobby can get
the best out of him while our interior hopefully stays healthy. We were decimated at DT last season. I wanted Lou gone but what
can yah do?

We should still want to stay competitive on Defense, I don't understand the thought of ignoring one side of the ball for the other.

If we can stay relatively healthy, I think our D can be decent with Reader, Lawson, Hubbard, Wilson, Pratt, ADG and our Secondary
while adding some players. But if we just say eh, doesn't matter, Lou sucks, nothing matters, not even Burrow. All the pressure 
would be on Burrow to keep this team in high scoring games. Not cool IMO.

[Passepartout]

Secondary needs to be backed up. As really needs to beef it up.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(02-27-2021, 09:11 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Dunlap wasn't a really good pass rusher for us last year. Lawson was our best by far. I pay the man and hope Hobby can get
the best out of him while our interior hopefully stays healthy. We were decimated at DT last season. I wanted Lou gone but what
can yah do?

We should still want to stay competitive on Defense, I don't understand the thought of ignoring one side of the ball for the other.

If we can stay relatively healthy, I think our D can be decent with Reader, Lawson, Hubbard, Wilson, Pratt, ADG and our Secondary
while adding some players. But if we just say eh, doesn't matter, Lou sucks, nothing matters, not even Burrow. All the pressure 
would be on Burrow to keep this team in high scoring games. Not cool IMO.

In the 16 games that Lawson played, he played at least 60% of the snaps in 13 of them. He had 2.5 sacks and 2 TFL in those 13 games.

In the 3 games Lawson played less than 60% of the snaps, he had 3 sacks and 2 TFL.

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Because the Bengals were nowhere near competitive on defense last year and they need ~$30m this offseason just to bring themselves back to that poor level of last in sacks, giving up 400 rushing yards to the Ravens, 26th overall, etc

Defense was punted away from being competitive this year the second they decided to bring Anarumo back. 

They ignored offense last offseason to spend heavily on defense and all it got them was a shitty defense and a broken 1st overall pick.

[fredtoast]

(02-28-2021, 12:14 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Because the Bengals were nowhere near competitive on defense last year and they need ~$30m this offseason just to bring themselves back to that poor level of last in sacks, giving up 400 rushing yards to the Ravens, 26th overall, etc

So basically you never want to have a good defense?

Lawson and Jackson were not the reason we had a bad defense.  Look around the league,  There are tons of very good players that play on bad teams.  The theory that in those cases you just give up and never spend to keep good players while trying to improve is ridiculous.

[SunsetBengal]

(02-28-2021, 11:32 AM)fredtoast Wrote: So basically you never want to have a good defense?

Lawson and Jackson were not the reason we had a bad defense.  Look around the league,  There are tons of very good players that play on bad teams.  The theory that in those cases you just give up and never spend to keep good players while trying to improve is ridiculous.

You say that the Bengals have tons of very good players, yet they were still a very bad team.  If they really had a ton of very good players, wouldn't they be easily defeating the opponents that they face?