Carl Lawson posts cryptic tweet

[*SHRacerX*]

(02-18-2021, 10:11 PM)Trademark Wrote:

Don’t know whether to be flattered or insulted but it is indeed wild ?

— carl lawson (@carllawson55) February 19, 2021

Let the guessing games begin

They may have tagged him to guarantee he stays (or they get unreal compensation).  They would have until later this year but before camp starts to work out a long-term deal.  It kind of straps the Bengals because he could simply say he will play the one year, but he should also look at the next contract as being capable of setting him up for some time.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(02-23-2021, 09:45 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: They may have tagged him to guarantee he stays (or they get unreal compensation).  They would have until later this year but before camp starts to work out a long-term deal.  It kind of straps the Bengals because he could simply say he will play the one year, but he should also look at the next contract as being capable of setting him up for some time.

Have to keep him from entering FA regardless...

This is a good move if this is the case.

[kalibengal]

whats compensation if he gets signed by anther team? a 1 and a 3?

[*pally*]

(02-23-2021, 08:35 PM)kalibengal Wrote: whats compensation if he gets signed by anther team? a 1 and a 3?

Comp picks start in the 3rd round.  The team could likely receive a 3rd round for Jackson.  Perhaps for Lawson but he would have to up his snaps per game.  That is if the Bengals qualify for compensation and that isn't a guarantee.  There is only 1 comp pick per player if the team qualifies for them.

[*psychdoctor*]

I am thinking that Lawson turned it on the year of his expiring contract may be coincidence but given his injury history, another year to prove his worth and health is good. I understand somewhat why players would be offended by Tag. It makes me think that multiple year deal to secure signing bonus is on their mind and also, every play may be the last play of their career.

I am thrilled the Bengals did not sign Green to a multi-year deal. If the Tweet indicates a franchise tag, then it gives the Bengals another two drafts to find 1-2 Edge players. This off season is somewhat troubling given Hobson leaks. I hope they sign Wj3 to multiple year deal but he also has health issues. Damn, please sign 1-2 Blue Chip OL this year Front Office! Or at Lease Thuney.

[MileHighGrowler]

(02-22-2021, 10:43 PM)jason Wrote: Why does anyone post to social media period? Nobody cares. Just like nobody cares that I don't care.

The same reason the generation older had people who loved to go to bars and tell stories loud enough the people around could hear them.  Or doing the same thing in the office.  Or anywhere.  People want to be heard, they want to be validated, they want to "matter."  Grand scheme of things, none of it matters.  But to someone who feels they have a voice, it's all important to get some kind of acknowledgement.  

The funny thing to me is how fans cling to these things, especially in the offseason, impatient to get an update, any update.  Human nature doesn't just long for validation, it lacks patience and looooves to draw conclusions. 

[Shake n Blake]

(02-22-2021, 10:40 PM)jason Wrote: My casual ass doesn't think Carl Lawson is worth that kind of money. If he's gonna get it, I hope it's from someone else. He's a nice player, and all (I'da loved to have him on those 2012 - 2015 teams), but he's not a top 5 DE, edge, 3-4 OLB... Whatever you wanna label the tweener.

Casuals don't appreciate hurries, but sacks DO matter. They're obviously more impactful than a hurry. All things considered (injury history, sack production, etc) I'd pass on Lawson at that price or even close to it.

We were awful in sacks last year, and ranked 22nd in passer rating allowed, so how impactful were those hurries, really? We can improve on those totals without Lawson. Honestly, there's nowhere to go but up, really...and that money would be better spent elsewhere.

[*jason*]

(02-25-2021, 12:59 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Casuals don't appreciate hurries, but sacks DO matter. They're obviously more impactful than a hurry. All things considered (injury history, sack production, etc) I'd pass on Lawson at that price or even close to it.

We were awful in sacks last year, and ranked 22nd in passer rating allowed, so how impactful were those hurries, really? We can improve on those totals without Lawson. Honestly, there's nowhere to go but up, really...and that money would be better spent elsewhere.

I saw it wrapped up pretty concisely in another thread on here today. We can gobble up a good chunk of our available cap on these two guys, and not improve our team at all. The fear of letting two "key" players go from a terrible defense would keep 2 guys around for WAY more money than they were getting paid in 2020. Hopefully they can contribute big things to whichever team signs them away from here.

[phil413]

They're so behind schedule on the DL and pass rush that they have to tag him. Look for them to go address OL heavily and DT in FA and take a rush prospect high in the draft.

[fredtoast]

(02-25-2021, 01:10 AM)jason Wrote: I saw it wrapped up pretty concisely in another thread on here today. We can gobble up a good chunk of our available cap on these two guys, and not improve our team at all. The fear of letting two "key" players go from a terrible defense would keep 2 guys around for WAY more money than they were getting paid in 2020. Hopefully they can contribute big things to whichever team signs them away from here.

Our offenses sucked with Burrow.  Based on your logic that mean Joe is expendable.

You can't judge individuals on how the team performs.

[*jason*]

(02-25-2021, 04:25 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Our offenses sucked with Burrow.  Based on your logic that mean Joe is expendable.

You can't judge individuals on how the team performs.

Pretty sure I just did... And you know good and well the offense fell off a cliff when Joe Burrow was injured. Lou and the boys can get gashed on defense with or without Carl Lawson and Jackson.

You good with paying Lawson and Jackson what they'll be offered on the open market?

[KillerGoose]

(02-25-2021, 12:59 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Casuals don't appreciate hurries, but sacks DO matter. They're obviously more impactful than a hurry. All things considered (injury history, sack production, etc) I'd pass on Lawson at that price or even close to it.

We were awful in sacks last year, and ranked 22nd in passer rating allowed, so how impactful were those hurries, really? We can improve on those totals without Lawson. Honestly, there's nowhere to go but up, really...and that money would be better spent elsewhere.

I really have to disagree. If Lawson is let go, it will be a mistake. Without Lawson, this is the current projected starting lineup...

Khalid Kareem - 254 snaps, four total pressures.

Geno Atkins - 119 snaps, one total pressure
DJ Reader - 259 snaps, one total pressure
Sam Hubbard - 664 snaps, 18 total pressures



Carl Lawson, alone, had 723 snaps and 44 total pressures. The ENTIRE FRONT SEVEN, outside of Lawson, had 50 total pressures. I'm talking backups as well. That is a total of 12 different players being counted, and Lawson only had six less pressures than those guys, while playing less than 70% of the snaps. He was 5th in the league in total pressures, and sacks follow pressures. If this team can get any other pass rushers to help Lawson, his sack numbers will greatly inflate. 

[samhain]

(02-25-2021, 01:10 AM)jason Wrote: I saw it wrapped up pretty concisely in another thread on here today. We can gobble up a good chunk of our available cap on these two guys, and not improve our team at all. The fear of letting two "key" players go from a terrible defense would keep 2 guys around for WAY more money than they were getting paid in 2020. Hopefully they can contribute big things to whichever team signs them away from here.

Jackson is a goner and Lawson is 50-50 to me.  I think they are good players to have around, but I wouldn't sign either over extending Bates, who is a legit elite talent.  If you tie up a ton of cash in these two, it leaves less to give Jesse when his time comes.  It think the best option is to slap a tag on Lawson and buy another year to find a new pass rusher on a rookie deal.  Let him walk next year and pay Bates to lead the defense for the next 4 or 5 seasons.

[*rfaulk34*]

(02-25-2021, 04:25 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Our offenses sucked with Burrow.  

Not exactly. With a terrible line and just a shred of a run game, they averaged 358 yards and 23 pts a game with Burrow, up to the Washington game. Without Burrow, after the Washington game, they averaged 271 yards and 16 pts a game. Those avg yds per game, without Burrow, include them rushing for 142 per, for the last 4 games of the season. 

[Bilbo Saggins]

(02-25-2021, 04:25 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Our offenses sucked with Burrow.  Based on your logic that mean Joe is expendable.

You can't judge individuals on how the team performs.

The main difference between the two examples is that for Burrow you can point to hard stats like yards, completions, TDs, first downs, and ratios(TD/INT, yards/attempt, completion %, etc.). Those stats are empirical facts. A 10 yard completion is not a "close to 10 yard completion." A passing touchdown is not an "almost touchdown." A person can reasonably look at his rookie stats and surmise that he is a franchise QB who will earn QB1 money some day. 

For Lawson to stake his claim as a top DE(who should be paid like a DE1), you really have to go beyond the empirical stats. His sack numbers and TFL numbers over four years are underwhelming. He hasn't been able to stay on the field. You have to project his coulda woulda shoulda ghost stats as well as better results in the health department in order to justify his being paid like a top defensive talent. What use is it if Lawson defeats an OT over and over again right after the ball is released? What use is it if he gets an "almost sack" but doesn't get the guy on the ground? I really like the guy and enjoy rooting for him, but paying the dude QB money for 5 sacks/year and hardly any healthy years seems downright absurd to me. Projecting that a guy who was chronically injured or was a 5 sack guy as miraculously turning into a 10+ sack super healthy guy once he gets paid is some risky business. 

[ElkValleyBengal]

(02-25-2021, 12:59 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Casuals don't appreciate hurries, but sacks DO matter. They're obviously more impactful than a hurry. All things considered (injury history, sack production, etc) I'd pass on Lawson at that price or even close to it.

We were awful in sacks last year, and ranked 22nd in passer rating allowed, so how impactful were those hurries, really? We can improve on those totals without Lawson. Honestly, there's nowhere to go but up, really...and that money would be better spent elsewhere.

If a hurry leads to a poorly thrown pass that's intercepted, then the hurry is more impactful.  If the hurry leads to an intentional grounding call or forces a blocker to hold to protect his QB, then the hurry is at least as, if not more, impactful.  As a rule, sacks are more impactful, but not universally so.  Granted, this team's defense seems to have trouble grasping the concept that they're allowed to catch the ball also.

[ElkValleyBengal]

(02-25-2021, 01:10 AM)jason Wrote: I saw it wrapped up pretty concisely in another thread on here today. We can gobble up a good chunk of our available cap on these two guys, and not improve our team at all. The fear of letting two "key" players go from a terrible defense would keep 2 guys around for WAY more money than they were getting paid in 2020. Hopefully they can contribute big things to whichever team signs them away from here.

So if we sign outside players who are better than the guys they replace, we improve.  But if we retain players who are better than the guys who'd replace them, we stay the same.  Interesting.

[fredtoast]

(02-26-2021, 12:43 AM)Bilbo Saggins Wrote: The main difference between the two examples is that for Burrow you can point to hard stats like yards, completions, TDs, first downs, and ratios(TD/INT, yards/attempt, completion %, etc.). Those stats are empirical facts. A 10 yard completion is not a "close to 10 yard completion." A passing touchdown is not an "almost touchdown." A person can reasonably look at his rookie stats and surmise that he is a franchise QB who will earn QB1 money some day. 

Burrows "empirical stats" show that he was the 25th ranked QB in the league last year.  Anyone who claims his 2020 performance looks like a "franchise QB" is depending on "woulda coulda shoulda ghost stats".

Meanwhile our pass defense ranked 22nd with Lawson and Jackson.  Higher than our pass offense with Burrow.

(02-26-2021, 12:43 AM)Bilbo Saggins Wrote: What use is it if he gets an "almost sack" but doesn't get the guy on the ground? 

There are multiple sources for stats showing the impact that pressure has on a QB's passing numbers.  

The league leader in sacks probably gets a little over one a game.  It is pretty silly to judge a players entire worth on one play per game when teams average 60-70 snaps per game.

[fredtoast]

(02-25-2021, 09:28 PM)jason Wrote: Pretty sure I just did... And you know good and well the offense fell off a cliff when Joe Burrow was injured.

(02-25-2021, 11:48 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Not exactly. With a terrible line and just a shred of a run game, they averaged 358 yards and 23 pts a game with Burrow, up to the Washington game.

25th in points and 20th in yards with Burrow as the starter.

[*rfaulk34*]

(02-26-2021, 01:58 PM)fredtoast Wrote: 25th in points and 20th in yards with Burrow as the starter.

Correct. With a rookie QB, behind a bad offensive line and a running game that was mostly MIA. 

I wonder how bad it would look without Burrow. Wait...

I do expect it to improve this year.