Next Gen Stats Aggressiveness %

[Nicomo Cosca]

So credit to Whatever for providing these stats. I saw him post them in the draft threads recently, and I don’t think it got nearly the attention it should have. Now let me be clear here, the purpose of this thread is absolutely not to suggest WR is our biggest need on offense (literally everyone agrees that’s OL), or that Boyd and Higgins aren’t really good WR’s. The point is merely to show that in addition to upgrading his OL, we can also help out Burrow in a significant way by giving him another high end pass catcher (WR or TE). Even though his ball placement is probably his strongest attribute, continuing to have him constantly thread the needle is obviously not ideal. And we could certainly use some more explosive plays (Burrow himself needs to work on his deep ball and has already stated as much).

Anyway, here are the numbers for comparison sake between Burrow and (*most of) the playoff QB’s this season as far as the aggressiveness stat (throwing into tight windows)


Trubisky 21.2%
Tannehill 18.7%
Roethlisberger 17.3%
Rivers 15.8%
Brady 14.8%
Jackson 14.4%
Mayfield 13.8%
Allen 13.1%
Goff 12.7%
Brees 12.3%
Mahomes 11.4%
Rodgers 11.2%
Wilson 11.1%

Burrow 21.5%

*I assume Heinicke didn’t qualify


Only one QB in the entire league had a higher %. And only Trubisky was close out of the playoff QB’s.

Boyd was tied for 94th among qualified pass catchers, and Higgins wasn’t even in the top 100 for separation per Next Gen Stats.

I don’t want this to turn into a debate about the OL. We all know it needs to be addressed. How and when we do it seems to be where people have different opinions, but that’s ok. The point of this thread is simply to say that while I do agree we have 2 really good WR’s, we should not feel comfortable at the position. Especially with a coach that runs 11 personnel, and as of now we don’t even have a 3rd quality starter.


Whether it’s taking one of the top playmakers at #5, or bringing in a FA WR (no bargain bin players please), we really do need to give Burrow another weapon. This notion that he’s so elite he doesn’t need it is just not founded in reality. Burrow’s LSU offense was absolutely stacked during their historic season. Two 1st round WR’s in Jefferson and Chase, and possibly a third in Marshall (maybe 2nd round). He had great weapons. His OL was good (they won the Joe Moore award), but I don’t think they even had a 1st rounder out of the group iirc. It was mostly Burrow and those WR’s.

[Au165]

The stat is a bit misleading but also a good sign for a rookie. Here is the thing, rookies tend to be "scared" to throw into tight windows in the NFL because they don't want to make a mistake. That isn't always a bad thing though because there are plenty of tight windows in the NFL you can't throw into that they just haven't figured out yet. On the other hand, as QB's get more experience they learn where those windows are and they know when to take the check down versus trying to make what is called a "drive throw" into a tight window. You will see a lot of those vets there throw a lot more check-downs and screens which obviously aren't going to be "aggressive" but they are the right plays, and some of that comes back to the scheme as well.

Now I am not saying Burrow had guys running free all day, you can always use better weapons, but I can go back and find plenty of guys who were running free that wouldn't have been tight-window throws he could have taken but chose to be more aggressive into a tougher throw. That fearlessness is a good thing because he is learning by doing and it will help him progress a lot more quickly than being too scared to make the throw. Interestingly enough, I was just listening to one of the draft guys I follow talk about this being Trevor Lawrence's greatest attribute. He is not scared to throw into tight windows and expects his receiver to make the play that needs to be made.

Coming full circle, you have to give your receivers time to uncover. If you are instantly moved off your spot at snap you can't let them uncover and you have to go ahead and chuck it up. There is a lot of complexity here so I wouldn't say it supports or disproves anything but it is nice to see a rookie QB taking his shots and not being scared of mistakes.

[SadFaceBengal15]

(02-25-2021, 03:13 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: So credit to Whatever for providing these stats. I saw him post them in the draft threads recently, and I don’t think it got nearly the attention it should have. Now let me be clear here, the purpose of this thread is absolutely not to suggest WR is our biggest need on offense (literally everyone agrees that’s OL), or that Boyd and Higgins aren’t really good WR’s. The point is merely to show that in addition to upgrading his OL, we can also help out Burrow in a significant way by giving him another high end pass catcher (WR or TE). Even though his ball placement is probably his strongest attribute, continuing to have him constantly thread the needle is obviously not ideal. And we could certainly use some more explosive plays (Burrow himself needs to work on his deep ball and has already stated as much).

Anyway, here are the numbers for comparison sake between Burrow and (*most of) the playoff QB’s this season as far as the aggressiveness stat (throwing into tight windows)


Trubisky 21.2%
Tannehill 18.7%
Roethlisberger 17.3%
Rivers 15.8%
Brady 14.8%
Jackson 14.4%
Mayfield 13.8%
Allen 13.1%
Goff 12.7%
Brees 12.3%
Mahomes 11.4%
Rodgers 11.2%
Wilson 11.1%

Burrow 21.5%

*I assume Heinicke didn’t qualify


Only one QB in the entire league had a higher %. And only Trubisky was close out of the playoff QB’s.

Boyd was tied for 94th among qualified pass catchers, and Higgins wasn’t even in the top 100 for separation per Next Gen Stats.

I don’t want this to turn into a debate about the OL. We all know it needs to be addressed. How and when we do it seems to be where people have different opinions, but that’s ok. The point of this thread is simply to say that while I do agree we have 2 really good WR’s, we should not feel comfortable at the position. Especially with a coach that runs 11 personnel, and as of now we don’t even have a 3rd quality starter.


Whether it’s taking one of the top playmakers at #5, or bringing in a FA WR (no bargain bin players please), we really do need to give Burrow another weapon. This notion that he’s so elite he doesn’t need it is just not founded in reality. Burrow’s LSU offense was absolutely stacked during their historic season. Two 1st round WR’s in Jefferson and Chase, and possibly a third in Marshall (maybe 2nd round). He had great weapons. His OL was good (they won the Joe Moore award), but I don’t think they even had a 1st rounder out of the group iirc. It was mostly Burrow and those WR’s.

Good information. And yes we do need a better third. But I think we can all agree the most important part of the team is protecting ur franchise qb....well we really don’t even have one competent offensive lineman. We have high hopes for Jonah Williams and although he showed promise at times I still am not sure he’s our next whit. With that being said u have 2 stud wide receivers and u want a third possibly at 5 when we don’t really even have 1 offensive lineman that’s worth bangin the table for. Absolutely not on playmaker at 5. U take Sewell or trade back. Enough of this playmaker talk at 5 it upsets my stomach lol

[Nicomo Cosca]

(02-25-2021, 10:23 AM)SadFaceBengal15 Wrote: Good information. And yes we do need a better third. But I think we can all agree the most important part of the team is protecting ur franchise qb....well we really don’t even have one competent offensive lineman. We have high hopes for Jonah Williams and although he showed promise at times I still am not sure he’s our next whit. With that being said u have 2 stud wide receivers and u want a third possibly at 5 when we don’t really even have 1 offensive lineman that’s worth bangin the table for. Absolutely not on playmaker at 5. U take Sewell or trade back. Enough of this playmaker talk at 5 it upsets my stomach lol

Well, I didn’t really want to turn this into a OL discussion, but it obviously all depends on what we do in FA. If we sign a Thuney and a Daryl Williams, and Sewell is gone then I’m really not interested in trading back at that point (unless the offer completely blows us away). Our board should be wide open to go BPA in that scenario, and grab a Chase, Pitts, etc.

Also, I’m completely sold on Jonah as far as his play. He just needs to stay healthy now.

[*bengalfan74*]

Absolutely I want to build the offense. Our centerpiece is Joe Burrow. How we are going to win is Joe Burrow.

As has been discussed in other threads we need an identity. We need a focus point, a base to build our pyramid. And it's the offense.

And this is why I'm praying they go out and get at least 1 top notch Olineman in free agency. It's why I'm hoping they cut some of the fat and put us into a position to build around JB with some weapons on offense.

I'm not saying totally ignore defense. Just understand who's buttering your bread.

[Rubekahn29]

(02-25-2021, 11:27 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Absolutely I want to build the offense. Our centerpiece is Joe Burrow. How we are going to win is Joe Burrow.

As has been discussed in other threads we need an identity. We need a focus point, a base to build our pyramid. And it's the offense.

And this is why I'm praying they go out and get at least 1 top notch Olineman in free agency. It's why I'm hoping they cut some of the fat and put us into a position to build around JB with some weapons on offense.

I'm not saying totally ignore defense. Just understand who's buttering your bread.

I would be okay with a 1st round skill weapon (Pitts, Chase) ONLY if we address at least 2 positions on the line in FA. Then it is possible we can find a OLINE starter in the 2nd round.

We can add a piece or 2 on D, but all money should go to O this year and we can address defense next year.

[Murdock2420]

(02-25-2021, 03:13 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I don’t want this to turn into a debate about the OL. We all know it needs to be addressed. How and when we do it seems to be where people have different opinions, but that’s ok. The point of this thread is simply to say that while I do agree we have 2 really good WR’s, we should not feel comfortable at the position. Especially with a coach that runs 11 personnel, and as of now we don’t even have a 3rd quality starter.


Whether it’s taking one of the top playmakers at #5, or bringing in a FA WR (no bargain bin players please), we really do need to give Burrow another weapon. This notion that he’s so elite he doesn’t need it is just not founded in reality. Burrow’s LSU offense was absolutely stacked during their historic season. Two 1st round WR’s in Jefferson and Chase, and possibly a third in Marshall (maybe 2nd round). He had great weapons. His OL was good (they won the Joe Moore award), but I don’t think they even had a 1st rounder out of the group iirc. It was mostly Burrow and those WR’s.

Are these stats the results of the WR's not being open or are they the results of bad play calling or the results of bad O-line play forcing an early throw?

My guess would be that Burrow's stat being so high is a combination of those three factors together. At times, a lack of separation, certainly a lack of play calling to isolate WRs with rub routes and picks, and then the elephant in the room, the shit OL, when pressure comes, you throw the ball to avoid the sack and that means throwing before the WR is open.

I don't think you can use that stat and simply go.. oh it's terrible we need new WRs. I think you look at it and go, what is happening in the offense that allows our guys to always be covered? Lack of creative play calling would be high on the list. The fact that teams can get home with 4 guys is also high on the list. Bad WR play...not as high.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(02-25-2021, 11:36 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Are these stats the results of the WR's not being open or are they the results of bad play calling or the results of bad O-line play forcing an early throw?

My guess would be that Burrow's stat being so high is a combination of those three factors together. At times, a lack of separation, certainly a lack of play calling to isolate WRs with rub routes and picks, and then the elephant in the room, the shit OL, when pressure comes, you throw the ball to avoid the sack and that means throwing before the WR is open.

I don't think you can use that stat and simply go.. oh it's terrible we need new WRs. I think you look at it and go, what is happening in the offense that allows our guys to always be covered? Lack of creative play calling would be high on the list. The fact that teams can get home with 4 guys is also high on the list. Bad WR play...not as high.

Well, we literally do need new WR’s. We currently only have 3 under contract for next season. One way or another that position group is going to look pretty different than it did last year. We have 2 nice pieces already, just have to add some more.

[Gdale_Bengal]

You can say scheme is an issue to an extent, but look at the receivers. No receiver has any kind of speed to get separation on DBs. That’s a real problem.

[*bengalfan74*]

(02-25-2021, 12:08 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Well, we literally do need new WR’s. We currently only have 3 under contract for next season. One way or another that position group is going to look pretty different than it did last year. We have 2 nice pieces already, just have to add some more.

Right

After Boyd and Higgins what is really left ? Green and Ross are most likely gone at least I hope so, yes it's time to move on from AJ, it was time last year. Then we have Erickson, Tate, Thomas and Morgan. Probably 1 of them will stay. But they're all like 5th or 6th WR's.

We still need another weapon !

[Nicomo Cosca]

(02-25-2021, 12:24 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Right

After Boyd and Higgins what is really left ? Green and Ross are most likely gone at least I hope so, yes it's time to move on from AJ, it was time last year. Then we have Erickson, Tate, Thomas and Morgan. Probably 1 of them will stay. But they're all like 5th or 6th WR's.

We still need another weapon !

Tate is the 3rd guy under contract next season. But he’s always hurt, and has scored 1 TD in 3 years. I don’t really want any of those other guys back.

[mallorian69]

(02-25-2021, 12:15 PM)Gdale_Bengal Wrote: You can say scheme is an issue to an extent, but look at the receivers. No receiver has any kind of speed to get separation on DBs. That’s a real problem.

Speed isn't the #1 attribute a WR needs to create separation. While speed helps on deep routes, those are only account for a small fraction of plays. Agility and short area quickness are much more important. Jerry Rice was the best to ever play the position but was never considered a burner. What made him special, besides work ethic, was the ability to stop on a dime and make the DB break his ankle with precision cuts on his routes. 

[Rubekahn29]

(02-25-2021, 12:48 PM)mallorian69 Wrote: Speed isn't the #1 attribute a WR needs to create separation. While speed helps on deep routes, those are only account for a small fraction of plays. Agility and short area quickness are much more important. Jerry Rice was the best to ever play the position but was never considered a burner. What made him special, besides work ethic, was the ability to stop on a dime and make the DB break his ankle with precision cuts on his routes. 

Speed helps though. Aside from TB long screen catch and run where DB took a bad angle, these guys can’t take a long one to the house. Tee has caught a couple in stride and still failed to make it to end zone. Also, neither are ankle breakers.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-25-2021, 12:15 PM)Gdale_Bengal Wrote: You can say scheme is an issue to an extent, but look at the receivers. No receiver has any kind of speed to get separation on DBs. That’s a real problem.

Yep.

Out of the 3 guys still on the roster, here are their 40 times:
Higgins - 4.54 (Clemson's practice facility)
Boyd - 4.58
Tate - 4.68

So yes, they don't have a single person who is 4.50 or faster. They need more speed.
I think Chase and Waddle both will run sub-4.5. I think DeVonta Smith might be in the low 4.5's, which is acceptable.
I really want to see what Kyle Pitts runs.

[fredtoast]

(02-25-2021, 09:17 AM)Au165 Wrote:  I can go back and find plenty of guys who were running free that wouldn't have been tight-window throws he could have taken but chose to be more aggressive into a tougher throw. 

A lot of times it was not a choice.  Joe was forced to do this because we were behind on the scoreboard and/or we were "behind the sticks" with lots of second-an-long and third-and-long situations.

[Au165]

(02-25-2021, 04:19 PM)fredtoast Wrote: A lot of times it was not a choice.  Joe was forced to do this because we were behind on the scoreboard and/or we were "behind the sticks" with lots of second-an-long and third-and-long situations.

It's always a choice. Sometimes the best throw is the one you don't attempt. Guys who press and think they always need to make the play right then and there can sink teams. Ben has had moments in his career where he has suffered from this and it was a knock for a while. I think he did a solid job and I'd prefer a rookie take chances, especially on a  bad team but he got greedy plenty and that is something he will balance with experience I am sure. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(02-25-2021, 03:13 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: So credit to Whatever for providing these stats. I saw him post them in the draft threads recently, and I don’t think it got nearly the attention it should have. Now let me be clear here, the purpose of this thread is absolutely not to suggest WR is our biggest need on offense (literally everyone agrees that’s OL), or that Boyd and Higgins aren’t really good WR’s. The point is merely to show that in addition to upgrading his OL, we can also help out Burrow in a significant way by giving him another high end pass catcher (WR or TE). Even though his ball placement is probably his strongest attribute, continuing to have him constantly thread the needle is obviously not ideal. And we could certainly use some more explosive plays (Burrow himself needs to work on his deep ball and has already stated as much).

Anyway, here are the numbers for comparison sake between Burrow and (*most of) the playoff QB’s this season as far as the aggressiveness stat (throwing into tight windows)


Trubisky 21.2%
Tannehill 18.7%
Roethlisberger 17.3%
Rivers 15.8%
Brady 14.8%
Jackson 14.4%
Mayfield 13.8%
Allen 13.1%
Goff 12.7%
Brees 12.3%
Mahomes 11.4%
Rodgers 11.2%
Wilson 11.1%

Burrow 21.5%

*I assume Heinicke didn’t qualify


Only one QB in the entire league had a higher %. And only Trubisky was close out of the playoff QB’s.

Boyd was tied for 94th among qualified pass catchers, and Higgins wasn’t even in the top 100 for separation per Next Gen Stats.

I don’t want this to turn into a debate about the OL. We all know it needs to be addressed. How and when we do it seems to be where people have different opinions, but that’s ok. The point of this thread is simply to say that while I do agree we have 2 really good WR’s, we should not feel comfortable at the position. Especially with a coach that runs 11 personnel, and as of now we don’t even have a 3rd quality starter.


Whether it’s taking one of the top playmakers at #5, or bringing in a FA WR (no bargain bin players please), we really do need to give Burrow another weapon. This notion that he’s so elite he doesn’t need it is just not founded in reality. Burrow’s LSU offense was absolutely stacked during their historic season. Two 1st round WR’s in Jefferson and Chase, and possibly a third in Marshall (maybe 2nd round). He had great weapons. His OL was good (they won the Joe Moore award), but I don’t think they even had a 1st rounder out of the group iirc. It was mostly Burrow and those WR’s.

We need to add a speedster IMO. Pains me to say that Ross is a bust. What is nice is that this Draft is stacked with WR's.

We could even get some damn good ones in the mid rounds. Tylan Wallace and the guy I love the most right now is Jaelon
Darden. Darden is insane from North Texas. Reminds me of Tavon Austin when he was at West Virginia but Darden seems to
have that attitude like he wants to prove everyone he is the best WR on Earth. Amazing in space with great speed and hands.

But of course would be fine with Chase or Pitts if Sewell is gone at 5.

Thanks to Pulses for turning me onto Darden, anyone who hasn't seen this guy needs to look him up.

[fredtoast]

(02-25-2021, 04:46 PM)Au165 Wrote: It's always a choice. Sometimes the best throw is the one you don't attempt. 

Yes, it is always a choice, but QBs get crucified for dumping off a 2 yard pass on 3rd and 9 when they are down by 10 points in the fourth quarter.

Even the best vets will usually try to force a pass into a tight window in those situations.

[J24]

We have a lot of needs on both sides of the Ball. So I can see drafting a Wr early in the draft.

[Whatever]

(02-25-2021, 09:17 AM)Au165 Wrote: The stat is a bit misleading but also a good sign for a rookie. Here is the thing, rookies tend to be "scared" to throw into tight windows in the NFL because they don't want to make a mistake. That isn't always a bad thing though because there are plenty of tight windows in the NFL you can't throw into that they just haven't figured out yet. On the other hand, as QB's get more experience they learn where those windows are and they know when to take the check down versus trying to make what is called a "drive throw" into a tight window. You will see a lot of those vets there throw a lot more check-downs and screens which obviously aren't going to be "aggressive" but they are the right plays, and some of that comes back to the scheme as well.

Now I am not saying Burrow had guys running free all day, you can always use better weapons, but I can go back and find plenty of guys who were running free that wouldn't have been tight-window throws he could have taken but chose to be more aggressive into a tougher throw. That fearlessness is a good thing because he is learning by doing and it will help him progress a lot more quickly than being too scared to make the throw. Interestingly enough, I was just listening to one of the draft guys I follow talk about this being Trevor Lawrence's greatest attribute. He is not scared to throw into tight windows and expects his receiver to make the play that needs to be made.

Coming full circle, you have to give your receivers time to uncover. If you are instantly moved off your spot at snap you can't let them uncover and you have to go ahead and chuck it up. There is a lot of complexity here so I wouldn't say it supports or disproves anything but it is nice to see a rookie QB taking his shots and not being scared of mistakes.

A couple of things to point out are that Brandon Allen was 7th in Aggressiveness at over 19%.  When you look at teams that had multiple QB's with enough attempts to qualify, you notice trends with teams that also have deficiencies at the skill positions.  Tua and Fitzmagic are both up over 20% for the Dolphins as are Trubisky and Foles for the Bears(who have nothing besides Robinson).  Both players trending that high indicates a lack of open targets, although Burrow obviously trended significantly higher due to his willingness to stick it in to tight windows.  Another big sticking point is Dalton was 5th in Aggressiveness in '19 at 20.8% and I don't think anyone will try to argue that Andy Dalton is an extremely aggressive QB.  In '18 he was at 17.3%(AJ injured mid year) and in '17 with a healthy AJ and crap OL he was at 16.5%.  Interestingly, he was at 17.9% in '16 when we still had Whit and Zeitler, but lost AJ for a big chunk of the year.  His Aggressiveness trended up or down based on the quality of his weapons, not so much the quality of his OL.  Also interesting is the fact that he was down to 15% this year in Dallas throwing to Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb.  

OL play doesn't seem to appreciably affect a WR's separation stat.  For example, Boyd had a 2.8 yards/separation in '16 when we still had Whit and Zeitler.  He was 2.7 this year, 2.6 in '19, and 2.9 in '18(he didn't qualify in '17 due to his benching and not receiving enough targets.  It also tends point against the scheme argument due to Boyd having played in 3 different offenses during that time.