03-23-2021, 10:42 AM
I'm also a little leery about taking a TE in the top 5, but according to the stats, the bust rate for TEs and WRs is approximately equal -- at least according to this site: https://football.pitcherlist.com/pessimists-guide-to-the-nfl-draft/
Since 2000, only 19% of first round WRs have had a 1k yard season, compared to 14% of first round TEs. 52% of first round WRs have had an 8-TD season, as compared to 38% of first round TEs.
So if it's between Chase and Pitts, our odds of success are only slightly better with Chase ... and after accounting for the larger sample size and higher usage rate of WRs, it's probably about equal.
Since 2000, only 19% of first round WRs have had a 1k yard season, compared to 14% of first round TEs. 52% of first round WRs have had an 8-TD season, as compared to 38% of first round TEs.
So if it's between Chase and Pitts, our odds of success are only slightly better with Chase ... and after accounting for the larger sample size and higher usage rate of WRs, it's probably about equal.