03-23-2021, 03:15 PM
(03-23-2021, 03:07 PM)Sled21 Wrote: I just don't see how you get signing an All Pro DE over an injury prone DE is a minus 2. Have you looked at Lawson's history:
2013- Freshman Year- played full season
2014 (Sophmore) missed entire season with torn ACL
2015- Played 7 games
2017- drafted, played full season
2018-Played 8 games, tore ACL
2019- Played 12 games
2020- Played 16 games
Do you really want to count on him to be healthy a full season? Not bashing him, I like Lawson, but he can't stay on the field and already has 2 reconstructed ACL's
The +2 assumes that both players remain healthy.
I think this article explains my viewpoint the best:
https://theathletic.com/2464775/2021/03/22/nfl-free-agencys-hottest-position-edge-rusher-what-to-know-if-your-team-signed-one/?source=user-shared-article
Quote:Trey Hendrickson, Bengals
4 years, $60 million ($16 million guaranteed)
What kind of player is he?
The former third-round pick turned into a promising third rusher for New Orleans in 2019, notching 4.5 sacks and 30 pressures in just 310 pass-rushing snaps during his third season. Coming into a contract year in 2020, the expectation was that Hendrickson would again serve as a rotational rusher in a group that included former first-round picks Cam Jordan and Marcus Davenport. That is … not what happened.
Hendrickson finished the year with 13.5 sacks, tied for second in the NFL behind T.J. Watt. For people who always liked Hendrickson as a role player, it was like watching a local band from your favorite dive headline Coachella. But additional context reframes Hendrickson’s 2020 campaign in a helpful way.
In the Saints’ Week 9 win against the Bucs last season, Hendrickson finished with two sacks. That’s a damn good day, according to the stat line. But take a look at those two plays. Both of those sacks are of the cleanup, late-in-the-down variety, and that was a consistent theme for Hendrickson last season. My buddy Brandon Thorn, who runs the excellent Trench Warfare site for line-play analysis, developed a metric this year called True Sack Rate. The goal was to contextualize sack totals by sorting by the quality of sacks players recorded. By his estimation, only three of Hendrickson’s 13 sacks were “high quality.” Based on his numbers, Hendrickson’s true sack production ranked closer to 13th in the NFL than second.
For Bengals fans seeking an optimistic spin, Hendrickson’s tape and underlying pressure numbers show he was a consistently disruptive force, even if his 2020 sack total was misleading. According to PFF’s numbers, only Joey Bosa and T.J. Watt created more pressure per snap than Hendrickson (among qualified rushers). Hendrickson spent plenty of time in opponent backfields last year, but there are legitimate questions about how he does it.
Hendrickson is a gifted athlete whose physical profile actually compares favorably to former first-round picks like Chris Long, Jason Babin and Shaq Lawson, but his pass-rush plan doesn’t feature much variety. More often than not, Hendrickson relies on his straight bull rush to push tackles into a QB’s lap and muddy up the pocket. He’s explosive enough for that approach to work against lesser competition, but without a change-up to his fastball, Hendrickson can get bottled up against quality pass protectors.
Against David Bakhtiari and the Packers in Week 3, Hendrickson had a quiet day as Green Bay’s All-Pro left tackle consistently used a quick pass set that prevented Hendrickson from powering his way to the quarterback. Every so often, Hendrickson will flash a two-hand swipe move that makes tackles pay for that sort of aggressive strategy, but his bag of tricks doesn’t go much deeper than that. He also has notably short arms for a player his height, which prevents him from using length as a weapon the way other taller rushers like Okwara can.
How does he fit the plan?
It’s probably not an accident one of Hendrickson’s best physical comps is current Bengals defensive end Sam Hubbard. The Hendrickson-Hubbard pairing gives Cincinnati a similar presence on both ends of the line of scrimmage. Last season, only the Lions and Titans finished with a lower pressure rate than the Bengals (19 percent), and when it became clear Carl Lawson would be leaving in free agency, Cincinnati had a defined need at one of its two other edge spots. The Bengals are hoping their pass rush takes a leap with Hendrickson aboard and 2020 free agent D.J. Reader set to return after missing the final 12 games of last season,
Overall, Cincinnati has been uncharacteristically aggressive in adding defensive talent through free agency over the past two offseasons. After signing Reader, cornerback Trae Waynes (who spent all of last season on IR), and safety Von Bell last spring, the Bengals added Hendrickson, cornerback Chidobe Awuzie and slot man Mike Hilton during this free-agent cycle. As the Bengals try to shape their offense around Joe Burrow with homegrown talent (Tee Higgins, Jonah Williams and others), they’re simultaneously trying to build a microwavable defense that will be ready to compete in a hurry.
What’s the value?
At first glance, four years and $60 million is a lot for Hendrickson, a former rotational rusher who’s spent most of his career as the third or fourth banana on a loaded New Orleans team. The details of Hendrickson’s deal (no guarantees beyond his signing bonus and 2021 salary) make the contract a bit safer, but even a de facto one-year deal worth $15 million is a lot. The Bengals are making a big bet on Hendrickson replicating what he did last year while stepping into a larger role.
Before this free-agent cycle, only 13 edge rushers in the NFL were making at least $15 million a year. You know most of their names. For Hendrickson to return value on his deal, he’ll have to prove he’s a true No. 1 option — with the attention that brings from offenses — in a way he’s never been in the past. I’m also wondering what some of the players in Cincinnati’s locker room are thinking as they watch the team’s brass hand Hendrickson the same annual salary (albeit with fewer guarantees) as the one Lawson got from the Jets in free agency.
VS
Quote:Carl Lawson, Jets
3 years, $45 million ($30 million guaranteed)
What kind of player is he?
Before getting too far into this, I want to be upfront about something: I love Carl Lawson as a player. For folks who truly enjoy the ins and outs of pass rushing, there are few players in the NFL who are more fun to study. Watching Lawson work, it’s hard not to crack a smile. He’s a line nerd’s dream.
A former fourth-round pick out of Auburn (who had one of the more disruptive seasons in recent memory during his final year in the SEC), Lawson is on the short side for an edge player at just 6-foot-2 and 260 pounds. But boy, does he pack a punch. Lawson’s compact stature comes with an elite initial burst and an explosive combination of pass-rush moves. According to Next Gen Stats, Lawson has produced one of the five fastest get-off times in the NFL during each of his first four seasons. He’s a rocket coming off the line of scrimmage, and that’s just the start.
Lawson’s go-to move is an inside stab or long-arm move that he uses to overpower left tackles (95.9 percent of his rushes came from right end last season, according to PFF). Here he is using it last season against Steelers left tackle Alejandro Villanueva, who was on the wrong end of it several times in 2020. The beauty of Lawson’s stab is that even though it’s a power move, it’s effective because tackles have to worry about Lawson’s speed.
Though offensive tackles don’t have to worry about Hendrickson beating them around the corner, the threat of Lawson’s initial burst forces blockers to immediately get depth off the snap. This allows Lawson to convert speed to power and occasionally knock 320-pound tackles onto their asses. He also has an ideal counter for whenever tackles start anchoring down and flashing their hands too early. The combination of those two moves represents the bulk of Lawson’s pass-rush arsenal, but his understanding of how and when to deploy them make it more than enough to get the job done.
Last season, Lawson’s skills as a pass rusher translated to production. According to PFF, he finished fourth in the NFL with 64 pressures and third in PFF’s pass-rush win percentage. Few edge players in the league were more consistently disruptive play in and play out last season, and the skills underlying that production indicate Lawson might be able to have a similar impact in the future as long as he stays healthy.
How does he fit the plan?
It’s been six years since a Jets player recorded double-digit sacks (Muhammad Wilkerson in 2015), and only one Jets edge rusher (Calvin Pace in 2013) has finished with at least 10 sacks since John Abraham left the team in 2005. The franchise’s inability to find a dominant pass rusher is right up there with the Bears’ QB futility. The hope is that Lawson solves that problem immediately.
Under first-year head coach Robert Saleh, the Jets will be transitioning to a 4-3 base defense that will presumably incorporate the attacking-style front the Niners have used for the past few seasons. Lawson is an ideal fit as the right defensive end in Saleh’s system. With former No. 3 pick Quinnen Williams and the underrated John Franklin-Meyers already in place on the interior (and former Saints first-round pick Sheldon Rankins coming in free agency), the front four could be a strength for the Jets in 2021.
What’s the value?
Lawson has the best chance of any player on this list to live up to his deal — if he stays healthy. And that’s a big if. Last season was the first time since Lawson’s rookie year that he played in all 16 games. He missed four games in 2019 with a lingering hamstring issue and the final games in 2018 after tearing his ACL. Those issues come after Lawson missed an entire season in college with an ACL injury and six more games in another season with a hip injury.
If Lawson can stay on the field, he can provide a similar impact to the one Shaq Barrett and Za’Darius Smith (both recent free-agent signings around the same AAV to Lawson) have had for their teams. Given his injury history, there’s risk involved, but for a 25-year-old player with Lawson’s ability, that risk seems worth taking.
I think, when healthy, Lawson is one of the best pass rushers in the NFL. He didn't put up the numbers Trey did because of the supporting cast. That isn't to say Trey is bad, but he's a one year wonder at this point who had a lot of help and, as the article states, 10 of his 13.5 sacks were not considered quality sacks, meaning they were clean up sacks or coverage sacks. Lawson had more pressures than Trey with less help. That indicates that he is a better pass rusher in general. I have concerns that Trey was a product of his system and some lucky sacks rather than a truly gifted pass rusher, and the Bengals seem to agree since they basically installed a 1 year out clause into the contract if Trey is underwhelming in 2021.
I like the player, I like what he could provide, but I liked Lawson more and it's a shame that we lost Lawson when we offered a contract at the same AAV to Trey, even if the guaranteed money were significantly different.
