03-27-2021, 09:38 AM
With the 49ers trade, the Bengals are pretty sure to have a choice between Penei Sewell and J'marr Case at pick #5. The debate over the next month will be which player should they take.
It is universally know that our L has been bad, and that we need to protect our franchise QB to be successful. It is also known that our WR group is thin at this point and for Burrow to be successful, he also needs quality targets to throw to. With AJ Green gone, there is no clear #1 WR. Higgins makes an excellent #2, and Boyd is a monster in the slot, but no clear standout #1. That puts both Sewell and Chase frmly in play at pick #5. Thus the debate.
I am going to propose we look at the choice in a different way. It has been proven over the history of the NFL draft that the best strategy is to take the best player available when its your turn to pick. Teams who constantly chase needs instead of picking high quality players regardless of need end up not doing as well in the win column historically. So let's ask ourselves, who will be the best non-quarterback player available at pick #5? And to do so, I propose we ask the simple question...which player (Chase or Sewell) has the better chance of NOT being as good as projected? Who has the better chance of being a bust, or at least being serviceable but not great? For my money, I think Sewell has the better chance to not be a great player.
One analyst who first made me question Sewell was Brian Baldinger. He played O line, and has a pretty good track record for evaluating talent. He was asked to evaluate the O line prospects. One thing about Sewell that he said that scared me was that after watching tape on the different prospects, he wasn't convinced Sewell was the outright best O line prospect. He said the reason was that he saw Sewell on the ground too much. To him, this indicated that Sewell's balance was not top tier. He said you can coach technique, but like speed, you cannot coach innate balance. Combine that with the factors of sitting out a year, playing in the PAC 12 which doesn't have a lot of stellar defenses to play against, and playing on a spread offense system at Oregon, and I think you may have a recipe for not bust, but maybe non- greatness.
Contrast that with Chase who has been rated highly by nearly every source I've read about him. His qualities have been said to be a blend between those of AJ Green, and Julio Jones. Height, speed, catch radius, ability to make contested catches, etc. Throw on top of that the fact that Burrow knows him, has chemistry with him, and has actually asked for him, and I think you have a recipe for a much higher likelihood of not being not as good as projected. In other words, a higher chance of being the better player.
I know we need O line. But this draft is deep for O line. We can get good O linemen in rounds 2 and 3. In fact, we could get guys that could turn out being as good as or better than Sewell. I don't believe that to be the case with Chase. I think he is definitely the BPA with the most upside, and lower chance of not panning out to what we thought he would be. In that case, my choice would be to go with Chase at #5, and get O line help in subsequent rounds.
Who do you think has the better chance to not be great?
It is universally know that our L has been bad, and that we need to protect our franchise QB to be successful. It is also known that our WR group is thin at this point and for Burrow to be successful, he also needs quality targets to throw to. With AJ Green gone, there is no clear #1 WR. Higgins makes an excellent #2, and Boyd is a monster in the slot, but no clear standout #1. That puts both Sewell and Chase frmly in play at pick #5. Thus the debate.
I am going to propose we look at the choice in a different way. It has been proven over the history of the NFL draft that the best strategy is to take the best player available when its your turn to pick. Teams who constantly chase needs instead of picking high quality players regardless of need end up not doing as well in the win column historically. So let's ask ourselves, who will be the best non-quarterback player available at pick #5? And to do so, I propose we ask the simple question...which player (Chase or Sewell) has the better chance of NOT being as good as projected? Who has the better chance of being a bust, or at least being serviceable but not great? For my money, I think Sewell has the better chance to not be a great player.
One analyst who first made me question Sewell was Brian Baldinger. He played O line, and has a pretty good track record for evaluating talent. He was asked to evaluate the O line prospects. One thing about Sewell that he said that scared me was that after watching tape on the different prospects, he wasn't convinced Sewell was the outright best O line prospect. He said the reason was that he saw Sewell on the ground too much. To him, this indicated that Sewell's balance was not top tier. He said you can coach technique, but like speed, you cannot coach innate balance. Combine that with the factors of sitting out a year, playing in the PAC 12 which doesn't have a lot of stellar defenses to play against, and playing on a spread offense system at Oregon, and I think you may have a recipe for not bust, but maybe non- greatness.
Contrast that with Chase who has been rated highly by nearly every source I've read about him. His qualities have been said to be a blend between those of AJ Green, and Julio Jones. Height, speed, catch radius, ability to make contested catches, etc. Throw on top of that the fact that Burrow knows him, has chemistry with him, and has actually asked for him, and I think you have a recipe for a much higher likelihood of not being not as good as projected. In other words, a higher chance of being the better player.
I know we need O line. But this draft is deep for O line. We can get good O linemen in rounds 2 and 3. In fact, we could get guys that could turn out being as good as or better than Sewell. I don't believe that to be the case with Chase. I think he is definitely the BPA with the most upside, and lower chance of not panning out to what we thought he would be. In that case, my choice would be to go with Chase at #5, and get O line help in subsequent rounds.
Who do you think has the better chance to not be great?
