My thoughts on drafting WR first

[Burma]

(04-01-2021, 12:02 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: The OL did not hold those 2011-15 teams back whatsoever.

And we’re now at least a couple years away from contending (and that’s if we replace Taylor and everything goes right). This idea that literally everything has to be fixed in this one single draft is not realistic.

I agree, the line then was very solid.  The only complaining I can recall now is Bodine being Bodine and Andre Smith not living up to the hype.  Then they drafted Ced and Fisher, which seemed like a solid move at the time, unfortunately we know how that went.  And the decline really started in 2015 with Ced at RT, and continued declining as Zietler, Whit, and Boling left.  It hasn't been truly fixed yet. 

It is all too obvious the Bengals have too many holes to fix in just 1 draft,  but they have the chance to potentially solve the O-line problem at the cost of 2 high draft picks.  That, to me, would pay much greater dividends than adding a great receiver to the 2 very good ones they have and selecting a 2nd tier O lineman.

I am going to put this here just for reference. This chart stops at 2017 but the trend is clear and to fill in the gaps 2018 ranking: 27th. 2019 ranking: 30th, 2020: 30th.

(04-01-2021, 12:05 PM)Beaker Wrote: O line in the second round and third round and taking the best non QB player available in the first is a much better proposition for future success.

Also this is from a post I put in the draft forum.  Since 2016 there has been a very large difference in grades for OT selected in round 1 vs round 2. Tackles drafted in round 1 have averaged out to a grade of 72.52 and Tackles taken in round 2 have graded out to an average of 56.38 (which is almost 2 points lower than the Bengals starting guards graded at last year   )

Quote:This is a snapshot of the PFF grades for all the Tackles draft since 2016.  I looked at their first year grades and the 2020 season grades.  Initially the gap in grade between 1st and 2nd round was sizable (@10 points) but that gap got bigger as the players matured (@ 16 points).  To put this in perspective the 2nd round guys, over time, have reached a level of play slightly below what the Benglas offensive guards scored this past season.  The 1st round selections have averaged out to about 2 points higher than the average score of the Bengals current OT combination (Williams 70.1 and Reiff 71.4).


Also of the 48 tackles drafted 8 were converted to guards. Only 1 1st round tackle, Germain Ifedi, is still listed as a guard with a grade of 65.

So, looking at this, an OT is almost always an investment in the future and a 1st round tackle pays significantly higher dividends than a 2nd round pick.  Of the 19 1st round tackles selected since 2016 11 have a higher grade than either of the Bengals current starting OT. For the 2nd round tackles only 1, Brian O'Neill, has a higher grade.  Of the 10 2nd round OT selected only 5 actually play OT.

This seems to clearly indicate that waiting till the 2nd round to try and find a tackle is a fools errand.

1st year:
      Grades-----Snaps
1st  57.09------741.37
2nd 47.43------539.83
3rd  48.5-------222.1

2020:
-----Grades-----Snaps
1st 72.52------797.05 (75.78 grade is we remove the 2020 drafted players from this)
2nd 56.38-----656.80
3rd 40.59------290.44

Tackles playing G
---Grade-----Snaps-----1st year-----Snaps
1st 65--------1066-------51.3 --------841
2nd 60.9-----715.8------58.92-------657.6
3rd 64.5-----535.5------44.75--------289