Report: Burrow pushing for Bengals to draft Chase

[Whatever]

(04-09-2021, 05:40 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: The problem whenever people bring this up is that they look at the average and see what they perceive to be a minuscule difference...but that time is an average.

In reality it means that the best lines offered the following times on passes:

Team A:
3 seconds
2 seconds
3 seconds
5 seconds
3 seconds

While the bad line offered these times:

Team B for Bengals:
2 seconds
4 seconds
2 seconds
3 seconds
2 seconds

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The average time difference here would be 0.6 seconds...but what if we say those 2 second times were all sacks or blown up plays? Team A only had one of those, while team B had 3 of them. What if the 5 second time was a big play down field? Team A had one, while team B couldn't get the time needed.

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To your second bolded point, that's exactly the thing though. We don't need a WR1. We need to fill in the back end. We also need a speed guy who can take the top off, but it doesn't have to be a 1000 yard guy. We already have 2 guys capable of producing 1000 yards. We just need speed. A Chris Henry type of player.


How did our time to throw stat rank? If we had less time to throw than most teams, wouldn't that have a major impact on our average separation?

Less time to throw = less time to run = less separation.

It is an average, but it's an average taken over hundreds of snaps, not just 5.  And again, the point remains, no QB is consistently getting 4 seconds to just stand back there and survey the field.  

For this discussion, we also must include pressure % and sack % since a QB getting the ball out quick can drop his average time to throw and make the OL look better or worse as a result.  Burrow was tied for 26th in Time to Throw, was 13th in Pressure %, and 10th in Sack %. None of those is good, however, none represent the "worst OL in the NFL" narrative that gets tossed around these boards, either.  However, compare those rankings to the fact that he had the 5th worst expected completion percentage in the league and threw the 3rd highest percentage of passes to targets with a defender within 1 yard of them, it highlights just how bad that WR corps was.  

More time to throw doesn't necessarily mean more separation for the receiver.  The reason for this is simple.  You have a CB who runs 4.5 in the 40 covering a WR who runs 4.45.  If the WR gets separation on his initial break from the CB, he hypothetically will continue to accelerate away and in that case create more separation if the OL can give the QB an extra tenth or two to hold the ball and create an easier throw.  Problem is, the inverse is also true.  If a WR that runs 4.55 gets the same separation on the same route against the same CB, the CB will run him down and close the distance the longer the QB holds the ball.  Our WR corps is painfully slow by NFL standards, which means a lot more of the latter than the former.