Mike Greenberg on 1530 today.

[Burma]

I was actually really surprised at how abysmal the success rate of 1st round WR has been. I read this thread and started to do a bit more digging.  I assume I was influenced by the success of the 2020 1st round WRs, but once I started to look at this it was shocking how much of an outlier that class was. I found this particularly shocking, bear in mind this was up to the 2020 draft

• 19 of the 77 wide receivers taken in the first round this century have or had fewer than 100 career receptions in the NFL.
  

This was also interesting:

Quote:Receivers are, to understate it, tough to pick well. Any GM telling you otherwise is either lying or ignorant. How tough is it? Let’s take a look:

   
So, only 49% of first-round wide receivers have had a 1,000-yd season. On top of that, only 30% have had 2 or more. It’s not exactly like I qualify a two-time thousand-yarder as a superstar. That’s a pretty low bar for what is supposed to be elite talent. There are just so many misses that it’s hard to consider anything here as set in stone. Here’s another way to put it: there have been 15 drafts since 2000 with multiple wide receivers taken in the first round. Only twice have all the first-round receivers hit 1,000 yards at some point in their career. In twelve of those years, multiple receivers failed that test. Yikes.

Even if we limit our results down to top-10 picks as we did with running backs, it’s still a shot in the dark. Half of the players never put up a 1,000-yard season and only 32% have multiple 1k seasons. Honestly, looking at the success rates tells me a trade back is probably the best call for teams hoping to draft pass-catchers. I’d rather pick twice late in the first than once early–save for those rare generational talents.

Sources:
https://www.milehighreport.com/2020/4/23/21232643/success-rate-of-first-round-wide-receivers-this-century

https://football.pitcherlist.com/pessimists-guide-to-the-nfl-draft/