Rumors: Scouts Think Sewell Is Overrated

[CJD]

(04-26-2021, 06:14 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Don't.  Because the need at 38 is OG if we take a WR in round 1.  If we take Sewell at 5 it kicks someone inside.

There will be a top tier OG at 38 if we go WR at 5.

I'm not too big on taking a pure guard at 38. This team doesn't value guards, so that will be a 4 year contract and then, if he's any good, he'll leave for greener pastures (see Eric Steinbach, Kevin Zeitler, not to mention that we reportedly offered Joe Thuney an insultingly low offer) in free agency.

Not only that, but drafting a guy who can play guard and tackle adds additional depth along the Oline that we desperately need, as our current LT has had two season ending injuries in two seasons in the NFL. If we drafted a guy who can play OT or OG, he can start at RG and then, if Williams gets injured again, Reiff can move to LT, the rookie can move to RT and then XSF can sub in at RG. Not an ideal starter at RG, but he isn't a disaster at least.

For that reason, I think it's critical that, if we're going Oline in the 2nd, it should be a player who can ultimately end up at OT. That list is much, much shorter.

The players that I think can start at guard day 1 and move out to OT in a year or two in this draft:
1. Penei Sewell
2. Rashawn Slater
3. Christian Darrisaw (maybe)
4. Teven Jenkins
5. Sam Cosmi
6. Alex Leatherwood
7. Jalen Mayfield (maybe)

The top 4 will likely be gone by the end of the first round (unless scouts and analysts are way off), so that leaves Cosmi, Leatherwood and Mayfield.

I have doubts about Mayfield starting from day 1 because he only has 1 year plus a few games in a COVID shortened season of experience and some analysts consider him more of a 3rd round prospect. He was apparently a defensive player in high school so that's almost the entirety of his experience on the Oline period, which is concerning and he was never given the LT position which means Michigan probably viewed him as only their second best tackle in 2019 behind Jon Runyan Jr, a 6th round pick last year.

So that means we basically have two realistic and ideal options at 38 in Cosmi and Leatherwood. That means only 2 teams in the bottom half of the first round or beginning of the second round need to have the same need of a guard today, tackle tomorrow for our entire plan to be ruined should we forego Sewell.

Alternatively, you can draft a pure tackle like Liam Eichenberg or Walker Little and move Reiff inside to RG, but that has a little more risk associated with it, as rookie tackles can be hit or miss even if they are talented (like Andrew Thomas last year) and moving Reiff to a position he hasn't played since college (if I'm not mistaken) will inevitably have its own growing pains. I'd prefer the rookie start at guard, as it's a bit more of a forgiving position, especially when we do have Reiff who is an accomplished veteran tackle.

Now, obviously, there are guards that you can take like Wyatt Davis and Creed Humphrey and they'd work...but drafting a guy in the 2nd round that the team will almost certainly let walk in 4 years just feels like a waste of draft capital. Do what you gotta do to make the team work, I guess, but I'd rather spend draft capital on players we plan to keep around if they are successful. And pure guards aren't that.