TeamPitts

[Au165]

(04-28-2021, 12:26 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: That's some chicken and egg stuff there, man. Players generally get more targets because they get better. 

I mean Kelce got 16 more targets in year 3 than he did year 2 and he got only 13 more yards to show for it. Just because you throw to a guy 2x as much doesn't mean he's going to put up 2x the stats. He needs to be open enough to actually make the extra targets viable.

Lol... Nobody is throwing to Pitts 120 times in year 1. Only 19 players had at least 120 targets in 2020, and only 20 the year before. He won't even sniff 100 unless the team has literally no other viable pass catchers at WR. 

In the last 10 drafts, he only 1st round pick TE one to get at least 70 targets as a rookie was Evan Engram and that was on a 3-13 Giants team where nobody reached 750 receiving yards, and Engram only caught 55.7% of the passes thrown at him. The WRs on that team were Sterling Shepard (731 yards) and Roger Lewis (416 yards).

No not really, that is why scheme matters. I pointed out yards per target because it shows how they produced when given the opportunity, not even yards per reception which requires the person to make the catch that could have added to the total. He was producing at a high level on minimal targets and the argument of "open" is a pure assumption without any context to if he was or wasn't based on the actual play on the field. 

There were 42 players last year with 100, hence why I said 100-120 targets. What does "sniff 100" mean? if it's being within 10 targets then you can add another 11 players. Funny enough Logan Thomas had 110 targets in a bad Washington offense, but before you mention it there were 3 receiving options in that offense that had 100 targets. Part of the ability to get a 100 targets is to be in an offense that throws a substantial amount of times, if he is in an offense throwing 450-485 times he is most likely going to capture 100 targets.

To use historical examples also discredits that we are discussing a guy that A. would be going higher than pretty much every other guy, so one could argue is valued higher and B. is really not like any other TE we have seen in recent year. Evan Engram is the closest comp as a receiver you mention and he had 115 targets and didn't start 4 games and didn't play in one. It is VERY likely that a healthy Kyle Pitts will get 100 targets in year 1, and I'd even be willing to place a bet on that assuming health.