2021 Offseason - Overall Thoughts

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(05-08-2021, 04:38 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Little late to the show, but I hate to start a new thread just for my offseason evaluation.

DEFENSE

CB... I Waynes returns 100% healthy then we will be better off than last year.  Free-agent trade of Jackson and Alexander for Hilton and Awuzie was about even.  I think we may have lost more than we gained, but not enough to make a big difference.  And theoretically those guys would be #2 and #3 instead of #1 and #2.

Safety... I really thought we would see more 3 safety sets last year, but Shawn Williams only played 86 snaps on defense.  So we can't really consider him a loss at all.  Set here with Bates and Bell.

LB... We had to give these young guys a year to grow.  That was last year.  If these guys don't show improvement then we will be shopping for new LBs next year.  So far I have seen some evidence these guys may be good.  Logan Wilson only played 343 snaps, but he looked very good for a third round rookie.  Davis-Gaither was a fourth round pick from a small college, but he looked decent in 314 snaps.  Germain Pratt played very well over the last four games of 2019.  Then in 2020 he racked up 89 tackles despite playing less than two thirds of the snaps on defense (686).  That was 4th on the team, but I believe he was the second leading tackler on third down behind only Vonn Bell.   I have a theory that LB play depends more on coaching than any other defensive group.  It is all about making split second reads and reacting properly.  So hard for me to judge what we really have here.

DE...  Bengals came out ahead on Hendrickson-for-Lawson if for no other reason than Lawson's terrifying injury history.  Hendrickson is also bigger than Lawson and can be more of a traditional 4-3 DE.  Hubbard is a very good DE.  But we had zero depth behind those two.  I am the guy always saying you can't count on third and fourth round picks to be any good as rookies, but we desperately need immediate production from both Ossai and Sample.  Not a good situation to be in but no 4 win team is going to be able to completely rebuild its roster in just one season.

DT...  If Reader and Ogunjobi can stay health then this will be by far the most improved position on the team.  Both reader and Ogunjobi are young.  If they can both just produce like they did in 2019 we will have one of the best DT duos in the league.  Look at where they ranked among all DT/NTs that year


................Reader.......Ogunjobi
Tackles.......10th (52).... 11th (50)
OB Hits........ 5th (13)....  5th (13)
TFL.............16th (6).....  3rd (10)
Sacks..........26th (2.5)..   8th (5.5)

We are thin behind these two, and, again, are in the position of needing immediate production form our 4th round pick (Shelvin).  But when we have both Reader and Ogunjonbi on the field our DEs will suddenly look a lot better.  Their sack numbers will go up a lot if the QB can't just step up in the pocket.


OFFENSE

QB,,,  Set here.  I'd be shocked if Burrows knee was any kind of a big problem this year

RB... I really like our talent here with Mixon, Williams, Perine, and Chris Evans.

WR... Great top 3.  Huge drop off after that.  I look for us to add a veteran cut from another team.   I never agreed with the crowd who thought Auden Tate was a great WR, but he should be serviceable as a #4.

TE...  If Uzomah stays healthy he finishes in the top 16 among TEs in receptions and yards.  Sample is a good blocker and will be a very good #2 TE.  No stars to put us near the top of the league at this position group, but far from the weakness some people claim it to be.

OL...  Still the biggest question about this team. RT is the only position where I don't have some big concerns.  Jonah's injury history has me really spooked.   Trey was just an average to above average C before the injury and he was not hurt until January of this year.  I have serious concerns about him being available or effective this year.  I really like Jackson Carman, but there is always concern when a second round pick is forced to start as a rookie.  A lot of people are high on Spain, but there was plenty of film on his play last year and we were able to re-sign him for league minimum.  Su'a-Filo  was a back up at Dallas and he has missed almost half of his games (23 of 48) over the last three years.  Still tons of questions.



COACHING

This is by far the biggest problem this team faces.  None of the HC/OC/DC have any history of being good anywhere at any level above position coach.  I often point out that our O-line gave up a lot of pressure because they could not deal with blitzes and line stunts, but at the same time our defense did not come up with any effective blitz schemes to make up for our complete lack of pressure from the D-line.  Our 2 minute defense was helpless.  On offense our passing schemes were not getting players open consistently.


CONCLUSION

If we get really lucky with injuries this year we should have the talent to be competitive.  To me it is all about the coaching.  I am not saying this is the type of roster that should be racking up playoff wins, but with good coaches it could be a playoff team.  Especially if Burrow shows a lot of improvement this year.  Really good play at the QB position can turn an average roster into big winners.

Sounds kind of negative, but I will end on a positive note.  If this team does win we don't have to worry about the window slamming shut quickly.  This team is will be pretty young across most of the roster.

This is good stuff, specifically in relation to the DTs.  I remember that Cleveland was disappointed in Ogunjobi's 2020, but he was asked to play more NT than his traditional 3T and that was where he had more struggles.  He has been kind of overshadowed by guys like Hendrickson but he could be a very critical part of this team's success.  Plus, he is only on a one-year deal, so I think effort won't be an issue.