05-13-2021, 12:15 PM
(05-13-2021, 11:08 AM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: One pickup that I feel isn’t discussed enough is the addition of Hendrickson. I’m excited about his upside, but curious to hear from you guys. What is your barometer for success for the upcoming season for Hendrickson.
Must surpass double digit sacks?
Full healthy year, no missed time?
Needs to outperform Carl Lawson statistically?
It’s been a while since we’ve had a consistently dominant rusher... will Trey change that?
Good topic.
I do not think Hendrickson is a dominant pass rusher in any way, shape, or form. The metrics I have seen (pass rush win rate, pressures, hits, etc) paint him as a slightly above average pass rusher. Not elite. And far below Lawson's (his PFF grades are also a bit lower, 72 to Lawson's 76).
In that regard, I think we massively overpaid for him. Albeit my understanding is we can cut bait after this year without eating too much $$. So the long term risk is low.
However, just because he isn't an elite pass rusher does not mean he cannot be a useful player. He did have 13.5 sacks. Even though many of them were out of pressure created by others, finishing the play is still a skill. And one we need. We did not create a lot of pressure last year, but I still remember an awful lot of missed tackles on the QB in the pocket. And not all from Jackson/Watson type QBs.
Further, he seems to be a high motor guy. Lou is not a fan of guys who take plays off (Dunlap). He should give good effort and be good vs the run.
I hate Lou's scheme. Particularly trying to turn DEs into OLBs and drop them in coverage. Hendrickson should be better than Dunlap in this regard, and will at least try (unlike Dunlap). Hubbard will too. Sample & Kareem are DE/DT types and will be even worse at it, but will also try. Ossai, as an actual former LB, may actually be able to pull it off. ADG as well, if lined up outside (which we did not do much).
My long winded point is that Lou's scheme and our other DL guys won't do him a lot of favors. I believe the Saints blitz a lot. I'd be shocked if he hits double figures and figure 5 to 8. Which is fine.
I suspect we cut bait after one year. He's a good player but not worth $20 million. If he stays beyond 1 year, that is a good barometer of success. Because that means we think he is actually worth that contract.
