More Schein Love

[CJD]

(05-31-2021, 07:03 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: 1. You don't try to replace a top 15 QB unless something falls in your lap. When Peyton Manning came available, I wanted us to pursue. Towards the end, I wouldn't have minded drafting someone like Mahomes, as we were within range to get him, and Dalton was tailing off.

But you don't go willy nilly throwing late first round picks on a QB or bringing in random "meh" free agents just because you dont have a top guy. That'd be stupid. It's HARD to find an elite QB. I'm still not sold Burrow will even be that guy.

2. No, we don't agree Dalton was "never" above average. That is factually incorrect. He had several above average seasons in his prime, and several below average seasons towards the back end. Overall, his career with us was pretty average.

It's similar to Cam Newton. He had one amazing season, 2-3 really good seasons, and a handful of bad or subpar years. Overall, I'd say he had a pretty average career for a long term starter.

1. I'm glad you brought up Mahomes, because you're ignoring the most obvious way to replace a "good not great" QB without throwing late first round picks at it or signing free agents. From 2014 to 2017, they consistently had mid to late first round picks because of their mid tier/acceptable/maybe top 15 QB Alex Smith but chose to trade up to get their potential franchise guy. Then, obviously, there were the project QBs that had high potential but fell because people weren't certain how they'd pan out, like Lamar Jackson. I remember Mo Egger pounding the table hard for him in 2018. If you traded up or took a Jackson and it didn't work out, fine. But we didn't even attempt to upgrade the most important position in the NFL (and possibly all of sports).

2. Having an above average season and being an above average QB are not the same thing. Dalton had one really good year, a few slightly above average years, a good number of average years and a few bad years. If you get an A, 2 Bs, 3 Cs and 2 Ds, your final grade is going to be around a C, maybe a C+. Having that A and 2 Bs does not make you a B student.

(05-31-2021, 07:05 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: But Dalton is statistically better than Fitz, by a substantial margin.

So the comparison sucks, frankly.

You can compare two players without them being considered exactly the same. Dalton has had a better career overall than Fitz because he was given a lot of opportunities to start whereas Fitz has been playing from behind for a lot of his career and has switched teams and schemes for years now looking for that opportunity to start. 

That doesn't mean him and Dalton can't be similar in ideal role. They are both good enough to win games with the right team around them but not good enough to rest an entire franchise's future on their shoulders, despite their insistence that they are. 

Since Dalton left Cincinnati, he has gone on to back up Dak in Dallas (and did pretty decent in that role when called upon) and now he's in Chicago and while they said he would be the starter, they then immediately drafted Justin Fields. Maybe the Bears didn't think they'd be in range of a new starting QB in the draft this year so they decided to wait until 2022 to try and address the QB position so they signed Dalton just to have a game manager who, if the defense is elite, could sneak them into the playoffs. Or maybe they always planned to draft a QB and just told Dalton he was the starter so he would sign (Which would be a pretty big dick move, to be honest), but my point is since Dalton left Cincinnati, he has never been considered a franchise QB.

I just would have preferred the Bengals had treated him like every other franchise seems to want to treat him (and the way teams also treat Fitzpatrick). A good bridge QB for a young QB or a great back up QB who can win games and help in a pinch but won't be relied upon to be the unquestioned starter for years at a time.

EDIT: Also, as a side note, we were talking about QB rating and how it's a subjective measure and is it really a good way to grade QBs. You asked me what metric would I prefer and, while I don't think it's perfect and it appears to be a confidential formula (much like PFF's grades, which I would have checked for Dalton if I had the subscription), I do think it is worth pointing out that ESPN's QBR is much less charitable to Andy Dalton. Below are his QBR ranks and his QB Rating ranks by year:

2011:
QBR: 20th QB Rating: 20th
2012:
QBR: 21st QB Rating: 13th
2013:
QBR: 17th QB Rating: 15th
2014:
QBR: 22nd QB Rating: 25th
2015:
QBR: 3rd QB Rating: 2nd
2016:
QBR: 20th QB Rating: 15th
2017:
QBR: 25th QB Rating: 18th
2018:
QBR: 15th QB Rating: 26th
2019:
QBR: 27th QB Rating: 32th

So that rating system supports my "average or worse" sentiment pretty well, with the exception of 2015.