07-06-2021, 03:05 PM
Fwiw, here are our win total predictions (over/under betting lines) for each year over the last decade. I'll list the win total line set, our actual win total, and whether or not we went over or under.
2020 - Odds = 6.5, Actual Win Total = 4. Under.
2019 - Odds = 6, Actual Win Total = 2. Under.
2018 - Odds = 7, Actual Win Total = 6. Under.
2017 - Odds = 8.5, Actual Win Toal = 7. Under.
2016 - Odds = 9.5, Actual Win Total = 6. Under.
2015 - Odds = 8.5, Actual Win Toall = 12. Over.
2014 - Odds = 9, Actual Win Total = 10. Over.
2013 - Odds = 8.5, Actual Win Toal = 11. Over.
2012 - Odds = 7.5, Actual Win Total = 10. Over.
2011 - Odds = 5.5, Actual Win Total = 9. Over.
2010 - Odds = 7.5, Actual Win Total - 4. Under.
I'm posting this for a couple different reasons.
1.) It shows just what a crapshoot it is betting season long over/unders.
2.) It shows you, that for the most part, these lines set are more accurate than you might initially believe. While they're never going to be exact (that's not what they're intended for, they're intended to encourage betting), they do do a pretty a good job of ballparking how good a team is. Of course there are exceptions to this but rarely are they completely off the map.
To each their own, but I'd wary of placing any season long bet that isn't strictly for fun, regardless of whether it's over or under. I'd also caution against thinking this is a 2 win team or an 11 win team. If history tells us anything it's that this club will most likely fall into somewhere in the 4 (lower) to 9 (higher) range. Extremes would be 3 or less, or 11 or more. For this team to hit 11 wins it would need to outproduce the line by 5.5. That type of difference hasn't been seen in these examples.
I have no idea if anyone will find this info useful but I'd thought I'd share it anyways.
2020 - Odds = 6.5, Actual Win Total = 4. Under.
2019 - Odds = 6, Actual Win Total = 2. Under.
2018 - Odds = 7, Actual Win Total = 6. Under.
2017 - Odds = 8.5, Actual Win Toal = 7. Under.
2016 - Odds = 9.5, Actual Win Total = 6. Under.
2015 - Odds = 8.5, Actual Win Toall = 12. Over.
2014 - Odds = 9, Actual Win Total = 10. Over.
2013 - Odds = 8.5, Actual Win Toal = 11. Over.
2012 - Odds = 7.5, Actual Win Total = 10. Over.
2011 - Odds = 5.5, Actual Win Total = 9. Over.
2010 - Odds = 7.5, Actual Win Total - 4. Under.
I'm posting this for a couple different reasons.
1.) It shows just what a crapshoot it is betting season long over/unders.
2.) It shows you, that for the most part, these lines set are more accurate than you might initially believe. While they're never going to be exact (that's not what they're intended for, they're intended to encourage betting), they do do a pretty a good job of ballparking how good a team is. Of course there are exceptions to this but rarely are they completely off the map.
To each their own, but I'd wary of placing any season long bet that isn't strictly for fun, regardless of whether it's over or under. I'd also caution against thinking this is a 2 win team or an 11 win team. If history tells us anything it's that this club will most likely fall into somewhere in the 4 (lower) to 9 (higher) range. Extremes would be 3 or less, or 11 or more. For this team to hit 11 wins it would need to outproduce the line by 5.5. That type of difference hasn't been seen in these examples.
I have no idea if anyone will find this info useful but I'd thought I'd share it anyways.
