Bengals not expecting to sign Bates to an extension at this time

[Whatever]

(08-10-2021, 06:01 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I hope this is just posturing.  Maybe the Bates camp is asking for the moon, yet they still know that they'll eventually  take less, and this is the Bengals calling their bluff.  This could almost be a stalement by design.

That said, if this deal doesn't get done, and negotiations breaking down is indeed a long term problem, then it's hard for me not to think the Bengals are low-balling him.

Think of it from Bates' and his agent's perspective:  They know the risk in playing out a rookie deal.  They know that the tag amount for safeties is signifcantly lower than the top 5 highest paid.  Surely they want to avoid this.  They also know that all of the top 6 guys at the position fall between 14 mil and 15.2 mil; there is not a sizeable gap.  The market is pretty easy to identify and calculate.

So I find it almost impossible they'd overshoot this, to the point of ruining long-term security and taking a huge hit in pay on the tag vs. a new deal.  It would make no sense.

Like I said, this could be temporary.  I'm not going to assign blame right now.  Who knows what types of negotiating tactics are being used unless you're in the room.  But if the season opens up and he still isn't signed, I'm going to lean towards the Bengals offering way less than Bates overshooting a clear as day safety market.

PS If he doesn't get locked up that doesn't send a good message to some of the other guys on the team.  I've seen a handful of players talking up Bates this offseason, Von Bell in particular.  It wouldn't be a good look to not take care of your best player.  And franchising him isn't going to make a lot of people happy either.

It's likely a lot more complicated.  Reason being, we're talking about an extension on a rookie deal.  Typically, the player in this situation takes less than market value in order to mitigate the risk of a serious injury wiping out his shot at a big payday.  If the Bates camp is looking for $14-15 mil APY, there's not a lot of motivation for the Bengals to extend him.  I mean, between paying $14-15 mil this year and paying $14-15 mil next year or paying $1 mil this year and $14-15 mil next year on the FT, what are most people really going to do?

Another big issue is that there is still some debate on what his market value actually is.  Some have him slotted as a top 5 S, others have him as only a top 10 S.  There's a pretty significant APY jump from 7th to 6th on the highest paid S chart.  Consistency hurts him, as he was good as a rookie, mediocre in year 2, and elite last year.  With the FT for S's being relatively cheap, it's not hard to see the Bengals wanting to see him back up last year, especially if he wants top 5 money.