Bengals not expecting to sign Bates to an extension at this time

[CJD]

The Bengals are in a tricky situation with Bates, because the contract he deserves, based on the market and what other top safeties have recently signed for, is more than what the franchise tag would cost the team in 2022.

Not to mention, he is playing on the cheap for 2021 (2.86M cap hit).

So the extension has to not only make Jessie Bates happy with his new AAV, which will likely be in the the 15 to 16 million dollar range, guaranteed money and/or upfront money that he deserves, but it also has to account for the fact that the Bengals could keep him through 2022 at a projected 16 million total for 2021 and 2022 (2022 safety FT projected to be about 13.5 M).

In baseball, a lot of young players will sign an extension through their arbitration years (for those unfamiliar, arbitration years are something that every player has at the beginning of their career when the player is technically still under team control, so they aren't a free agent but, if the team and player can't agree to a price, the amount of money they make is determined by a third party based on previous years' production. It usually doesn't make it to that point, but it can sometimes) and, in doing so, take less money in exchange for the certainty of payment. The player is, essentially, buying the team's control years because, otherwise, they'd be stuck negotiating a new contract every season for the next 3 years, which adds the pressure of needing to perform every single year or else getting a pay cut. And if they get injured, they're in even more trouble.

Bates is in a position where he kind of needs to accept a below market value offer right now if he wants to get the deal done because the Bengals essentially have him locked up through the end of 2023 for a total cost of 2.86M + 13.5M + 16.3M (120% franchise tag)= 32.5M over three years.

I'm honestly not surprised they can't come to an agreement at this point because both sides have too much to lose by giving any ground. One of the sides will need to concede something. Maybe that is the Bengals offering more guaranteed and upfront money in exchange for a lower AAV than what the market would indicate for Bates or maybe Bates keeps the final year of his rookie contract in place, lowering the total AAV of his contract while still getting the money he deserves in the new extension years (similar to what Hubbard did).