How to separate "talent" from "coaching"

[*SHRacerX*]

(09-07-2021, 06:28 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I don't believe that coaches can win without good players, but I also believe some coaches can win with less talent than others (or lose with more).  

Andy Reid is one of the greatest coaches of all-time.  He took over an Eagles team that won 3 games and had the unusual distinction of finishing dead last in both yards gained and yards allowed.  He only won 5 games his first season, but since then he has made the playoffs 16 out of 21 years.  He has won 17 playoff games with 2 different teams going to 6 Conference Championship Games and 3 Super Bowls.  But he also went 6-10 in '05 and 4-12 in '12.  Sometimes even the best coaches can't overcome losses of talent due to injury or free agency.

So if a guy like Andy Reid has a bad year, no one claims he is a terrible coach.  But when dealing with a lot of players and new coaches that don't have a track record it is very hard to determine how much of the problem is coaching and how much is lack of talent.

I have a couple of ideas, but once I will admit that I don't have all the answers in this area.  So I'd like to hear what you guys think.

-I think one way to separate coaching from talent is too look at what happens at the very end of a half or end of a game. I feel the effects of coaching are magnified in the more difficult situations.

-Some fans like to point to penalties, but when you look at the numbers every year there are a lot of the best teams that are among the most penalized.

-I find it very difficult to criticize play calling.  If a coach plays it by the books and fails he is not creative enough.  If he tries something out of the ordinary and fails then he is stupid for not doing what every other coach knows is best.  Fans want coaches to "keep their foot on the pedal" with a lead until they throw away a game like we did against Tampa Bay in 2010.  Lots of Bengal fans claim Marvin Lewis cost us a lot of games by being too conservative with a lead, but when asked to give just one single example most come up blank.  Lots of fans also claim the Bengals threw the ball too much last year, but our run game was really bad.  I felt we had to throw a lot to have any chance of winning.

-From what I saw last year it seemed like much of the problem in pass blocking was players not knowing what to do.  I saw more mental mistakes than guys just getting bullrushed or beaten with speed.  But I have absolutely no way of measuring that with statistics.  I do know that Baltimore got 5 sacks from DBs in our first meeting.  Those guys were not just running over our O-linemen.  I blame a lot of that on coaching, but again it is hard to say 100%.  Sometimes there are players so dumb that not even top coaches can do anything with them.

Any other suggestion on how to (or not how to) split the blame between players and coaches?

Interesting post.  

I think I have to give the current coaching staff some allowances.  Sure, it is easy for me to sit behind this keyboard and talk about how they needed better balance last year.  They needed to be less predictable and not put Burrow in such unfavorable down and distances where the opposition is going to be teeing off on him.  However, they didn't exactly have the personnel to do that.  The line was awful at run blocking (to make up for that, they were also awful at pass blocking...and to take a shot at the coach there, I have never seen a line develop less (actually regressed) on a Bengal team.  Bye, Turner, you won't be missed.  Back to personnel:  The defensive line lost its two highest-paid vets and their big FA acquisition early and their FA CB before the season even started.  They were almost always behind.  The lack of solid pass blocking, especially inside, forced the passing game to get the ball out quickly, thus restricting what the defense had to contend with.  Couple that with a lack of a deep threat (although Tee started to show here, Green all but disappeared) and you have a "perfect storm" as to a lack of efficiency on both offense and defense. 

I know, that goes back to the boring excuses.  It is hard to ignore them.  The coaches showed some flashes of at least competency, with a solid game plan against pitt, and the defense showed fairly well against Lamar Jackson (though the offense did not).  They had Cleveland beat, and the Browns are a very solid team.  

I think we are going to learn a lot about the coaches very early this season.  They got rid of the last of the 'old guard" and it is truly a "New Dey" from a personnel standpoint.  I love how they have put this team together, at least on paper, and I am very excited about what we saw in the preseason.  This will be the year where the coaching staff either sinks or swims.  I really don't see a middle ground.