Criticism… not hate on 4th down decision

[*Synric*]

(09-12-2021, 09:18 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Yeah, he was at his 28. The analytics aren’t ‘dumb’. Quite the opposite, these equations are usually created by very intelligent mathematical minds. They are guidelines that will generally give you a positive outcome in the long run. The numbers say to be very aggressive on fourth and 1 or less because you will convert them often enough to have a positive expected points outcome. All that means is that you will convert enough of those that end up leading to points for your team more than you fail them and it leads to points for the opposing team. In short, do this and you’ll score more points than they do. We saw that today in overtime. The last I checked, the numbers say to go for any 4th and 1 beyond your own 9 yard line. I wouldn’t personally do that, but I am very much in favor of being much more aggressive.

I've had this arguement with a couple of High School coaches I know. The analytics are skewed on that go for 4th down because most coaches do that near the opposing teams 40 and convert about 50%. If a team does it on their own 30 or 40 that's likely spotting the opposing team points and that isn't included on the success of the 4th down play.