09-12-2021, 09:52 PM
(09-12-2021, 09:25 PM)Synric Wrote: I've had this arguement with a couple of High School coaches I know. The analytics are skewed on that go for 4th down because most coaches do that near the opposing teams 40 and convert about 50%. If a team does it on their own 30 or 40 that's likely spotting the opposing team points and that isn't included on the success of the 4th down play.
I’m not sure I’m 100% following. The conversion rate on a 4th & 1 or shorter in the NFL was around 77% at the midway point last season. I think that is probably high if we were to look at historical data. I would expect it to be between 65-70% but still significantly higher than 50%. I could probably gather that data and present it if I can find play-by-play CSV files.
