09-12-2021, 09:54 PM
(09-12-2021, 09:52 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I’m not sure I’m 100% following. The conversion rate on a 4th & 1 or shorter in the NFL was around 77% at the midway point last season. I think that is probably high if we were to look at historical data. I would expect it to be between 65-70% but still significantly higher than 50%. I could probably gather that data and present it if I can find play-by-play CSV files.
the problem is that 77% yeilds 0 points while 23% almost certainly concedes points. Analytics isn't just about success rate, but expected value for those decisions. There's no way that decision yields more points than it loses.
