Criticism… not hate on 4th down decision

[*Synric*]

(09-12-2021, 09:52 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I’m not sure I’m 100% following. The conversion rate on a 4th & 1 or shorter in the NFL was around 77% at the midway point last season. I think that is probably high if we were to look at historical data. I would expect it to be between 65-70% but still significantly higher than 50%. I could probably gather that data and present it if I can find play-by-play CSV files.

The percentage is a generalization if you go for it on 4th down and you have a 65% chance off success but spot the opposing team at the very least 3 points is that worth 35% or is playing field position the better chess move? 

3rd Quarter up by 14 on your own 30 going for it on 4th and 1 was a bad decision especially with your defensive playing well.