09-12-2021, 10:18 PM
(09-12-2021, 10:16 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: It’s not accurate to say that the successes don’t have points assigned to them. They absolutely do, and you can find that by finding the amount drives that had a successful 4th down conversion and how many points were scored on these drives.
A better metric is using win probability, which is what the 4th down decision bot uses. I posted that reference earlier, but we had an 88% chance to win. By going for it and getting it, our chance goes up to 92%. Failing it drops it to 82%. The bot rated it as a toss up decision.
Right there are some metric points going into it. but theres no way there's more points coming out of it than the losses. Its a range of outcomes. Its 77% to get a first down. Then from there the percentages decrease as the point rate goes up. Its still not a good bet. It was still a terrible decision. That decision single handled turned the entire game against us. I'm glad we won. I'm glad we are being proactive, but that call wasn't it.
