09-14-2021, 09:59 PM
This thread is not an attempt to bash Burrow. But I think an honest assessment of last year is necessary to recognize his improvement this year.
FootballOutsiders measures QB production with DVOA. It is a formula that uses traditional objective stats like yards and completions, but adjusts the value of each play based on down-and-distance (3 yard gain on third-and-2 is more valuable than 3 yard gain on first-and-10) and the opposing defense. I think it is a valuable stat. They also analyze how a QB performs "under pressure" compared to "no pressure". I assume "pressure" is based on some subjective judgement, but I don't really know. According to them Burrow had the 11th (out of 36) LOWEST pressure rate (23.2%) in the league last year. So I wonder what their exact definition of "pressure" is.
When Burrow was not under pressure his DVOA ranked 18th. However when under pressure his DVOA ranked 33rd. Only one QB (Goff) had a greater drop in his DVOA when under pressure compared to no pressure.
Looking at these numbers I think that the problem may be that a lot of the plays that FO rated as "no pressure" actually involved some pressure that dropped Burrow's efficiency. And then only the worst of the worst ended up in the "with pressure" category.
But these numbers do actually back up my perception from last year. Burrow was MUCH better in a clean pocket than under pressure. For all his ability to escape Joe rarely got off the big plays that occur when scrambling QBs break down the defense. We all remember some of the great throws he made after scrambling, but the fact is that overall he was not that efficient under pressure.
I don't think Burrow will scramble as much this year, but I do expect him to fully recover and eventually be just as nimble as he was last year. So what he has to do more of is turn those scrambles into big plays.
FootballOutsiders measures QB production with DVOA. It is a formula that uses traditional objective stats like yards and completions, but adjusts the value of each play based on down-and-distance (3 yard gain on third-and-2 is more valuable than 3 yard gain on first-and-10) and the opposing defense. I think it is a valuable stat. They also analyze how a QB performs "under pressure" compared to "no pressure". I assume "pressure" is based on some subjective judgement, but I don't really know. According to them Burrow had the 11th (out of 36) LOWEST pressure rate (23.2%) in the league last year. So I wonder what their exact definition of "pressure" is.
When Burrow was not under pressure his DVOA ranked 18th. However when under pressure his DVOA ranked 33rd. Only one QB (Goff) had a greater drop in his DVOA when under pressure compared to no pressure.
Looking at these numbers I think that the problem may be that a lot of the plays that FO rated as "no pressure" actually involved some pressure that dropped Burrow's efficiency. And then only the worst of the worst ended up in the "with pressure" category.
But these numbers do actually back up my perception from last year. Burrow was MUCH better in a clean pocket than under pressure. For all his ability to escape Joe rarely got off the big plays that occur when scrambling QBs break down the defense. We all remember some of the great throws he made after scrambling, but the fact is that overall he was not that efficient under pressure.
I don't think Burrow will scramble as much this year, but I do expect him to fully recover and eventually be just as nimble as he was last year. So what he has to do more of is turn those scrambles into big plays.
