09-25-2021, 02:32 PM
(09-25-2021, 12:50 PM)Whatever Wrote: I assume you meant Tee instead of Tate.
As stated before, 6 of Tee's 15 targets have been contested compared to 1 of 11 for Chase and 2 of 13 for Boyd. That strongly indicates that it's an issue with Tee and not Burrow. Next Gen Stats showed us last year that Tee was struggling to get separation and the thought was that he would polish up his route running this year, but it's not where people hoped it would be yet.
Separation is a factor in a receiver's production, but other things play into it like target volume. Some are great at making contested catches and can be productive without a lot of separation. However, Tee is coming down with a very low % of his contested targets, so he doesn't fall into that category. The main stat with separation I brought up was the teams with QB's making a high % of throws to covered targets don't typically make the playoffs. We saw why against the Bears. We had a lost fumble and a pick trying to force feed Tee the ball when he was well covered. I'm not saying Tee is a bum, but he's not a WR1 and should not be getting WR1 target share. Chase should be getting the 7-8 targets per game Tee has been getting and Tee should be seeing 5 or so.
A factor that has a value of about 1%.
In terms of total targets this year, Tee is 38th. Out of those he is;
23rd in separation
8th in smallest amount of cushion at the LoS (this is the biggest argument against separation)
16th in targeted air yards
But here's where sep and cushion combine to see who is effective...
he's 4th in Average YaC above expectation. xYaC/R 2.2yds. YaC/R 4.3yds. So while he's more tightly blanketed and getting smaller separation numbers, he's exceptionally productive on his targets.
https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#targets
He's def a low end #1/top end #2.
As far as market share, i'd put the # something like this.
On 34 throws a game, RBs should see 6, TEs should see 4, Chase should see 10, Boyd should see 7 and Tee should see 7.
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