09-28-2021, 10:51 AM
Here are some of the numbers following week 3. I have made an adjustment to my QB rating to factor in TD%. The base of this work was done by Brian Burke, but I ran a regression on wins and TD% and found there was strong enough correlation to include the coefficient into our formula. Quite frankly, I think these rankings make much more sense. And here we go...
Pythagorean Projections - Week 3
![[Image: 90vSsw8.png]](https://i.imgur.com/90vSsw8.png)
This data is still very early BUT our Cincinnati Bengals are playing at a predicted 11 win pace if they can keep this performance up. We are still dealing with a sample size issue, which should be apparent with the model predicting seven wins for GB and only eight wins for KC/Baltimore. Through the first three weeks, we have a surprise with Denver and Carolina making up two of the top three spots (Denver playing at a 16-1 pace!) I certainly don't expect either of these teams to keep this pace up but they are playing much better football this year than they did last year.
SRS - Week 3
![[Image: hrTtJ2M.png]](https://i.imgur.com/hrTtJ2M.png)
Our Cincinnati Bengals are also ranked as top 10 team through week 3, logging a 7.4 SRS rating. Remember, SRS is trying to tell you how many points BETTER that team is against a theoretical average NFL team. Keeping this in mind, it really puts into perspective how bad Atlanta, New York and Detroit has played through these first few weeks. Carolina again is a surprise team topping the charts along with a curious visit from the Vikings. Why are the Vikings ranked higher than Cincinnati despite losing to them? Because they played Cincinnati AND Arizona (both top 10 teams by this model) close while borderline thumping the Seahawks. Essentially, it is saying that Minnesota has had a tougher schedule and has been very competitive throughout. Like everything else, this will normalize throughout the season.
Adjusted QB Rating - Week 3
![[Image: QDVpSL3.png]](https://i.imgur.com/QDVpSL3.png)
The changes that I made to this formula have made this list make more sense. The previous formula wasn't factoring in TD% to this rating. That formula was from Brian Burke, and the data is outdated (I still need to redo the regression on this). I did find time to do a regression on TD% and wins and found a strong enough correlation to make the change, so we now have a stronger (in my opinion) formula that tells you who is playing well and who isn't. Burrow's stellar TD% launches him into the top 10 (previously 24th) and there is a surprise visit from Heinicke to round out the top 10. Winston is a curious addition in the top 5 but it is likely due to sample size. He hasn't been asked to do much but has thrown seven TDs on 63 attempts for the highest TD% in the league (11.3%).
I am still trying to build a framework to keep track of other metrics that would be fun to look at as the season goes on and this should be much easier to do now that we have a large enough dataset to matter. If anyone has any questions, feel free to ask.
Pythagorean Projections - Week 3
This data is still very early BUT our Cincinnati Bengals are playing at a predicted 11 win pace if they can keep this performance up. We are still dealing with a sample size issue, which should be apparent with the model predicting seven wins for GB and only eight wins for KC/Baltimore. Through the first three weeks, we have a surprise with Denver and Carolina making up two of the top three spots (Denver playing at a 16-1 pace!) I certainly don't expect either of these teams to keep this pace up but they are playing much better football this year than they did last year.
SRS - Week 3
Our Cincinnati Bengals are also ranked as top 10 team through week 3, logging a 7.4 SRS rating. Remember, SRS is trying to tell you how many points BETTER that team is against a theoretical average NFL team. Keeping this in mind, it really puts into perspective how bad Atlanta, New York and Detroit has played through these first few weeks. Carolina again is a surprise team topping the charts along with a curious visit from the Vikings. Why are the Vikings ranked higher than Cincinnati despite losing to them? Because they played Cincinnati AND Arizona (both top 10 teams by this model) close while borderline thumping the Seahawks. Essentially, it is saying that Minnesota has had a tougher schedule and has been very competitive throughout. Like everything else, this will normalize throughout the season.
Adjusted QB Rating - Week 3
The changes that I made to this formula have made this list make more sense. The previous formula wasn't factoring in TD% to this rating. That formula was from Brian Burke, and the data is outdated (I still need to redo the regression on this). I did find time to do a regression on TD% and wins and found a strong enough correlation to make the change, so we now have a stronger (in my opinion) formula that tells you who is playing well and who isn't. Burrow's stellar TD% launches him into the top 10 (previously 24th) and there is a surprise visit from Heinicke to round out the top 10. Winston is a curious addition in the top 5 but it is likely due to sample size. He hasn't been asked to do much but has thrown seven TDs on 63 attempts for the highest TD% in the league (11.3%).
I am still trying to build a framework to keep track of other metrics that would be fun to look at as the season goes on and this should be much easier to do now that we have a large enough dataset to matter. If anyone has any questions, feel free to ask.
