10-05-2021, 10:58 AM
Week 4 - Pythagorean Projections
![[Image: GWLgLCC.png]](https://i.imgur.com/GWLgLCC.png)
Denver has relinquished their top spot after receiving a 23-7 shellacking by the Baltimore Ravens, leaving the Buffalo Bills atop our projections with projected 16-1 record. One thing to keep in mind when judging the Bills, while they have played fantastic football these first four weeks, they have also had the easiest strength of schedule. This doesn't completely diminish their accomplishments; they have a margin of victory of 22 points per game which is incredible in the NFL, but they will certainly level out as the season continues. They have a showdown with the Chiefs this weekend.
Cincinnati comes in with a projected 11-6 season while having the 9th easiest schedule in the league. Going by a projected wins and hardest SOS combo, Dallas and LAC have the most projected wins (11) with the 4th and 5th most difficult schedule in the league so far. Kansas City is currently projected for 9 wins with the third hardest schedule so far.
Week 4 SRS
![[Image: pfZCcg9.png]](https://i.imgur.com/pfZCcg9.png)
The Bills top our SRS rankings as well, in large part to their insane margin of victory. The aforementioned Dallas and Chargers squeeze into the top five right after the Browns. Cincinnati is currently ranked the 14th best team due to their weak SOS.
Week 4 Adjusted QB Rating
![[Image: eLQdVnG.png]](https://i.imgur.com/eLQdVnG.png)
I made another tweak to this formula, but only aesthetically. I changed the constant that I multiply by to give this a more 'normal' scale to work with. The ranking methodology is the same as last week. Mahomes has taken the top spot with a ridiculous five TD performance this past weekend, leading the Chiefs past the Eagles 42-30. Burrow jumps up a spot and sticks into the top five with Taylor Heinicke sticking around in the top 10 after a 290 yard, 3 TD performance in a win over the Falcons.
Denver has relinquished their top spot after receiving a 23-7 shellacking by the Baltimore Ravens, leaving the Buffalo Bills atop our projections with projected 16-1 record. One thing to keep in mind when judging the Bills, while they have played fantastic football these first four weeks, they have also had the easiest strength of schedule. This doesn't completely diminish their accomplishments; they have a margin of victory of 22 points per game which is incredible in the NFL, but they will certainly level out as the season continues. They have a showdown with the Chiefs this weekend.
Cincinnati comes in with a projected 11-6 season while having the 9th easiest schedule in the league. Going by a projected wins and hardest SOS combo, Dallas and LAC have the most projected wins (11) with the 4th and 5th most difficult schedule in the league so far. Kansas City is currently projected for 9 wins with the third hardest schedule so far.
Week 4 SRS
The Bills top our SRS rankings as well, in large part to their insane margin of victory. The aforementioned Dallas and Chargers squeeze into the top five right after the Browns. Cincinnati is currently ranked the 14th best team due to their weak SOS.
Week 4 Adjusted QB Rating
I made another tweak to this formula, but only aesthetically. I changed the constant that I multiply by to give this a more 'normal' scale to work with. The ranking methodology is the same as last week. Mahomes has taken the top spot with a ridiculous five TD performance this past weekend, leading the Chiefs past the Eagles 42-30. Burrow jumps up a spot and sticks into the top five with Taylor Heinicke sticking around in the top 10 after a 290 yard, 3 TD performance in a win over the Falcons.
